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eagle2
08-13-2010, 06:13 PM
You mean when CLINTON was President ? Very simple. Look at the SPENDING numbers THEN and compare them to NOW.

What about when Lyndon Johnson was President, when we were fighting a major war in S.E. Asia and we started the Great Society without running up major debt? and what about when Nixon, Ford, and Jimmy Carter were in the WhiteHouse? They didn't run up nearly as much debt as Reagan and Bush.



Do you realize that Obama's $1.3 Trillion deficit exceeds all of Bush The Dumber's deficits in his eight (8) years ?

The budget for the fiscal year 2009, with a $1.4 trillion deficit, was set in place when Bush was President. Even the conservative Cato Institute acknowledges this.

http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/11/19/dont-blame-obama-for-bushs-2009-deficit/




You are deliberately misreading my posts regarding "tax cuts". Part of it might be my fault based on inexact language. I support and advocate INCREASING revenues and have repeatedly posted to that effect. I support cuts to the RATES coupled with elimination of ALL deductions and credits. I have repeatedly stated that the sole legitimate purpose of our Tax Code is to raise the revenue necessary for our government to pay it's bills. I think even you would agree that instead the Tax Code has been turned into a "goody bag" to reward this group and that.

I agree there are a significant number of loopholes in our current tax system in the form of deductions and credits, and these should be looked at to reduced the deficit, in addition to increasing tax rates and cutting wasteful spending.

Deogol
08-13-2010, 08:58 PM
What about when Lyndon Johnson was President, when we were fighting a major war in S.E. Asia and we started the Great Society without running up major debt? and what about when Nixon, Ford, and Jimmy Carter were in the WhiteHouse? They didn't run up nearly as much debt as Reagan and Bush.


The budget for the fiscal year 2009, with a $1.4 trillion deficit, was set in place when Bush was President. Even the conservative Cato Institute acknowledges this.






I agree there are a significant number of loopholes in our current tax system in the form of deductions and credits, and these should be looked at to reduced the deficit, in addition to increasing tax rates and cutting wasteful spending.

Buick city during Ford etc. and before "free trade"



Buick city after "free trade"



Destroy a nations economy - destroy the government's balance sheet.

eagle2
08-14-2010, 06:19 PM
Free trade isn't the reason why Buick City looks the way it does. Poor management is.

jimboe7373
08-14-2010, 07:46 PM
so post your own new Dollar Den threads already ... to balance out this supposed lopsidedness !!!
I would have to post dozens of topics to even out the lopsidedness and quite frankly I'm not that obsessive, I'll just limit my exposure.

jimboe7373
08-14-2010, 08:33 PM
A big problem is, the government has ingrained it's self deeply into every corner of the economy - it's hard to talk about it without getting into politics.

Past Advice: Buy safe blue chip stocks like GM with good dividends.

Today's Problems: If you were a stock holder or bond holder you were left holding the bag. Why? Unfriendly business environment from regulation. The government literally swooping up GM and making it private. Of course, the government now plans on IPO'ing the "new" GM.

Past Advice: Get an IRA.

Today's Problem: Oh Good Lord which scam now? Roth IRA? Regular IRA? 401K? Does it matter with the way government rocks the stock market? Does it matter since the government rewrites so many rules?

One cannot even talk about savings accounts without regard to the government's influence in it. Hey, go out and make these mortgages! Oh, your going belly up? Hope you have less than 100K in your account. Oh wait, we changed our mind 250K. Um, for now. And no, you can't get your money back retroactively.

And when government gets into something, politics gets into it.

This is no free market. I think the closest we had to a free market was during Eisenhower. Its all government regulated or influenced in one way or another.Welcome to life and the real world. As long as you're living things change and adjustments have to be made- the ones who are aware and adjust quicky and intelligently avoid a lot of the fall out and many times prosper.

Free Market looks and sounds great on paper but in practice only winds up benefiting a very select few at a great cost to a great many. Human nature what it is greed, selfishness and desire for power motivate a ruthless and selfish few to abuse the system for their own ends. If you could have a true Free Market with true competition it would probably work just fine. But because of the items mentioned earlier those with economic power will often form monopolies, supress technology, exploit workers,dupe customers and other nefarious things. Without an entity looking over them the great, great majority of people will have colossal problems much worse than governement interference. The industries with the least regulation have been the areas where the greatest amount of people have been hurt recently. Granted it is far from perfect but without government getting involved to regulate things on the publics behalf we would be back in fuedalism with a few ruthless powerful people owning and controlling everything and everyone.

Things change and that's just life. One door closes and another opens. Manufacturing and Corporate jobs disappear or go overseas...start your own business. Strip club fees getting too high, attentance at the clubs is down.... start camming. You can bellyache and complain and blame anyone or anything all you want but the whole time you're doing that millions of others are seeing and seizing new opportunities and getting wealthy. Your taxes go up....make more money. If it gets to be too, too much and you really can't stand what your taxes are and where the money is going etc. move to another country. You can retain your U.S. citizenship and make $87,500 in earned income before you are liable for U.S. taxes.

Without government envolvment most people would be paying $8 for a gallon of gas(if they could afford a car), making $2 an hour, eating tainted food and by and large suffering at the hands of mega corporations who would all be in cohoots with their only motivation being short-term quaterly profit at any expense.

Deogol
08-15-2010, 09:18 AM
^^^ Then people got to stop bitching about politics in Dollar Den cuz the government is there.

Eric Stoner
08-15-2010, 04:02 PM
[QUOTE=eagle2;1970717]What about when Lyndon Johnson was President, when we were fighting a major war in S.E. Asia and we started the Great Society without running up major debt? and what about when Nixon, Ford, and Jimmy Carter were in the WhiteHouse? They didn't run up nearly as much debt as Reagan and Bush.


The budget for the fiscal year 2009, with a $1.4 trillion deficit, was set in place when Bush was President. Even the conservative Cato Institute acknowledges this.

http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/11/19/dont-blame-obama-for-bushs-2009-deficit/


Moose Muffins ! Bush approved a $787 billion Porkulus package ? When ? How ? He had been out of affice for over a year ! That's HALF of Obama's deficit plus all the little scraps he's been throwing to this group and that. Plus TARP ; Plus Government Motors. It's OBAMA's Economy now. Get used to it.

eagle2
08-15-2010, 04:46 PM
The entire $787 billion stimulus package was not spent in 2009. Duh!

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/us/politics/22budget.html?hp?xid=rss-page

The president inherited a deficit for 2009 of about $1.2 trillion, which will rise to more than $1.5 trillion, given initial spending from his recently enacted stimulus package.

Eric Stoner
08-16-2010, 06:59 AM
What about when Lyndon Johnson was President, when we were fighting a major war in S.E. Asia and we started the Great Society without running up major debt? and what about when Nixon, Ford, and Jimmy Carter were in the WhiteHouse? They didn't run up nearly as much debt as Reagan and Bush.


The budget for the fiscal year 2009, with a $1.4 trillion deficit, was set in place when Bush was President. Even the conservative Cato Institute acknowledges this.

http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/11/19/dont-blame-obama-for-bushs-2009-deficit/




I agree there are a significant number of loopholes in our current tax system in the form of deductions and credits, and these should be looked at to reduced the deficit, in addition to increasing tax rates and cutting wasteful spending.

Sigh. This is where it can get "tedious" as Mel and I have to keep going over the same economic history. LBJ enjoyed the benefits of JFK's tax cuts i.e. a booming economy and INCREASED revenues. However he did not raise taxes to pay for both the War and his Great Society programs. Nixon , Ford and Carter had to deal with the continual recessions and inflation until Volcker and Reagan took charge.

threlayer
08-17-2010, 01:56 PM
...
And when government gets into something, politics gets into it.

This is no free market. I think the closest we had to a free market was during Eisenhower. Its all government regulated or influenced in one way or another.

You know the old wise saying -- 'too many crooks spoil the stew'

(or is that cooks?)

Eric Stoner
08-19-2010, 11:53 AM
More REALITY - Jobless claims UP . Again. Stock market down AGAIN. Yep. "Recovery Summer" is just humming along.

Melonie
08-19-2010, 02:34 PM
^^^ not to worry ... the 'experts' are still calling for a recovery. Of course, those 'experts' have a track record that I certainly wouldn't bet on ... YOU CAN"T MAKE THIS STUFF UP, FOLKS !!!


(snip)58 out of 58 Economists Overoptimistic on Philly Fed Manufacturing Estimate

Median Forecast +7 Actual Result -7.7, a "Veritable Disaster"
They may call economics the "dismal science" but it would be hard pressed to find a more optimistic lot than economists, anywhere in private industry.

Fresh on the heels of a perfect 42 of 42 overoptimistic predictions on weekly claims (Please see Weekly Unemployment Claims Hit 500,000, Exceed Every Economist's Estimate; No Lasting Improvement for 9 Months), a perfect 58 out of 58 Economists were overoptimistic regarding the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey.


Unexpected Shrinkage
Bloomberg reports Factories in Philadelphia Area Unexpectedly Shrink
Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly shrank in August for the first time in a year as orders and sales slumped, a sign factories are being hurt by the U.S. economic slowdown.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell to minus 7.7 this month, the lowest reading since July 2009, from 5.1 in July. Readings less than zero signal contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

Economists forecast the measure would rise to 7, according to the median of 58 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from minus 6 to 10.

The Philadelphia Fed's survey was in sync with a report this week from the Fed Bank of New York. The bank's so-called Empire State Index increased less than forecast, as orders and sales cooled.


Forecast for "More Modesty"!
"We expect the recovery that we've seen in our business to continue, but in a more moderate pace than we've experienced in the first half," Chief Financial Officer Nicholas Fanandakis said on a conference call with analysts.

Fed policy makers last week voted to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low and made their first attempt to shore up a recovery they said was likely to be "more modest" than earlier anticipated.


Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
With that undoubtedly overoptimistic "modest recovery" out of the way, please consider actual results from the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey.

Results from the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity weakened in August, after two months of slowing activity. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered negative readings this month.

Firms also reported declines in employment and work hours. The survey's broad indicators of future activity continue to suggest that the region's manufacturing executives expect growth in business over the next six months, but optimism has waned notably in recent months.


Indicators Suggest Weakness
The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a reading of 5.1 in July to -7.7 in August. The index turned negative, marking a period of declining monthly activity for the first time since July 2009.

Indexes for new orders and shipments also suggest a slowing this month; the new orders index fell slightly, to -7.1, while the shipments index turned negative, declining to -4.5. Indicating weakness, indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders remained negative this month.

The percentage of firms reporting a decline in employment (23 percent) was higher than the percentage (20 percent) reporting an increase. More concerning was the significant drop in the average employee workweek index from 1.7 in July to -17.1 in August."(snip)

from

100% of mainstream economic 'experts' wrong ? Twice in the same week ? Seriously, YOU CAN"T MAKE THIS STUFF UP, FOLKS !!!

Melonie
08-19-2010, 03:14 PM
I would also add some detail from the Philly Fed Survey ...

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/TG1wFRuO1lI/AAAAAAAAJLs/kO4IcMuCaD0/s1600/philly+fed+2010-08A.png


(snip)"The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of
current activity, decreased from a reading of 5.1 in July to ‐7.7 in August. The index turned negative, marking a period of declining monthly activity for the first time since July 2009.

Indexes for new orders and shipments also suggest a slowing this month; the new orders index fell slightly, to ‐7.1, while the shipments index turned negative, declining to ‐4.5. Indicating weakness, indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders remained negative this month.

The percentage of firms reporting a decline in employment (23 percent) was higher than the percentage (20 percent) reporting an increase. More concerning was the significant drop in the average employee workweek index from 1.7 in July to ‐17.1 in August.

Firms Report Lower Prices for Products

On balance, firms reported declines in [sale - sic] prices for their own manufactured goods: More firms reported decreases in prices (19 percent) than reported increases (6 percent)."(snip)


(snip)"This was not a "weak report" this was a "veritable disaster".

Note that every component of the index except for prices paid is in contraction. This represents a massive squeeze on profits. [ as prices paid for raw materials increase while sale prices for end products simultaneously decrease - sic ]

Also note the huge, widening spread between current conditions and future expectations. One of them is wrong and I suggest manufacturers are taking their clues from clueless economists who continually think things are going to get better."(snip)

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/TG1xTsP-u3I/AAAAAAAAJL0/Aa_jrrPKX64/s1600/philly+fed+2010-08.png

from

Deogol
08-19-2010, 05:06 PM
If they can investigate the mosque critics - we can investigate who these economists are and HOW THEY ARE PAID. The only other explanation is that modern economic theory has no way of dealing with the conditions and factors we are in today.

Melonie
08-20-2010, 02:37 AM
^^^ actually there is a third explanation ... which has been discussed in many previous threads ... that these economists are basing their analysis on 'bull$#it' official economic and employment data.

Eric Stoner
08-23-2010, 08:32 AM
^^^ actually there is a third explanation ... which has been discussed in many previous threads ... that these economists are basing their analysis on 'bull$#it' official economic and employment data.

How about this ? : Too many economists are letting their wishes father their thoughts ; too many are using Keynesian models that do not permit them to adjust to actual realities i.e. they just can't believe all this government spending is NOT stimulating the economy.

To piggyback on Mel's GIGO theory, I've already laid out in another thread how ridiculously unreliable the U.S. Dept. Of Labor's Payroll Survey actually is. It is based on a computer model that estimates how many new businesses are being created and how many new workers are being hired by said businesses regardless of whether or not they actually even exist in the first place. The proof of that is the annual DOL reconciliation when they have to add up and post the REAL employment numbers which NEVER match their earlier estimates.

Melonie
08-23-2010, 10:07 AM
^^^ which is precisely why many 'gold foil hat' economists are now disregarding official DOL numbers in favor of ADP's actual paycheck processing reports, disregarding official retail sales projections in favor of states' actual sales tax collections reports etc.

KatGrrl
08-25-2010, 06:14 PM
For what it's worth...
I recognize that Dollar Den is a FREE resource, open to the public, accessible stripper-related (however contrived at times it may seem) forum and though the political & even seemingly US-centric fear-mongering discussion can get tiresome at times, believe me - some of us dancers are able to make sense of it, appreciate it for what it is, and even apply the knowledge! I've realized it is a great resource in so many ways, and if nothing else it inspires and educates me to read up on issues mentioned here that I didn't necessarily resonate with or know anything about. It's totally inspiring, and I've never felt alienated even though I don't start that many posts. So thanks to all of you who contribute because you've all offered answers whenever I asked!

threlayer
09-03-2010, 07:15 PM
Let's ask this question --- has Melonie ever posted anything with good news?

hockeybobby
09-03-2010, 07:55 PM
Good question.

Melonie
09-04-2010, 02:01 AM
you want good news ? how about this ? Gold is above $1250 an ounce !

you want more good news ? how about this ? Polls show the highest probability that 'big spending' democrats will lose congressional seats in November since polling began ... which will in all probability result in 2 years of 'gridlock' as far as new / additional gov't stimulus spending, gov't benefit spending, federal to state bailout spending etc. are concerned.

person
09-04-2010, 03:02 AM
To be fair, I've noticed most people shifting the focus of posts from "what do I do with my money" or "how do I get more money" to "So-and-so is guessing that such-and-such economy/business/government is totally fucked" over the last 2 years. Not my cup of tea but if that's what people are into, then that's cool :)

Melonie
09-04-2010, 07:30 AM
^^^ A very valid point !!! However, while not wanting to blatantly offer any financial advice ( per the usual disclaimers ), if you check out other DD threads you'll find a number of consistent reveferences ....

- gold has outperformed virtually every other investment over the past 5 years, and current market forces / gov't policy re the US dollar provide little reason to expect gold's future performance to suffer in the short term

- agricultural commodities have recently begun an upswing in price, and current global market forces provide little reason to expect future prices of agricultural commodities to suffer in the short term

- the Swiss Franc is increasingly being viewed as a 'safe harbor' in light of the PIIG problems ( which have not gone away ) and current gov't policy re encouraging US exports ( = weakening of the US dollar's exchange rate )

- individual discussions have taken place re umpteen different publicly traded companies that are heavy beneficiaries of gov't stimulus / subsidy spending and/or gov't regulations acting in said companies favor. It's really difficult for such companies to 'lose' money !

- as a result of US federal and state tax policy, municipal bonds are now being viewed as an increasingly valuable legal tax shelter for higher earning Americans. As such, demand for muni bonds is increasing and so is their price.

Undoubtedly some DD readers have figured out that when I post threads on these and other economically relevant subjects, my reason for doing so goes deeper than a simple attempt to create controversy. However, unlike Jim Cramer or Suzie Ormond I'm not ever going to make specific and blunt financial recommendations ( or 'official' recommendations of any kind). And by sheer coincidence, any DD readers who actually decided to take financial action in response to those threads originally being posted more than likely made money by doing so.

While this is nothing more than personal opinion ( again the usual disclaimers ), I will make a blunt statement that US businesses are currently sitting on over 2 trillion dollars worth of 'cash' ... which is arguably being hoarded because the owners / managers of those US businesses have little or no confidence that the direction of the US economy ( or the direction of those US businesses relative to their future role in the global economy ) has turned positive. I'll further state that the single most important factor affecting said US business confidence ( or lack thereof ) is now US gov't policy. Thus the date of November 2nd arguably looms HUGE in that regard ... and may provide for 'fortunes' to be made by those who place heavily leveraged 'winning bets' on US stock market futures before that date !!! And a very easy and 'low cost' means of placing such a leveraged 'bet' on US businesses might be via purchasing shares of 3x leveraged Russell 2000 Exchange Traded Funds TNA or TZA ( depending on whom you expect to win )

~

FBR
09-04-2010, 09:49 AM
^ I don't usually post in DD but Mel makes a solid point. 2010 (so far) has been nicely profitable for my business, largely due to all the cutbacks we implemented in 2009 and to a lesser extent an uptick in sales. We owners and rank and file have all been working our asses off which is likely the reason. I could probably justify hiring another few people but am sitting on my hands. I am very concerned about the expirations of the Bush tax cuts. I am very concerned about government run health care and the cost implications to my business. I will most likely just stay the course, not hire anyone and perhaps give the existing employees a nice bonus at year end once again asking and thanking them for their hard work.

I suspect I am pretty typical of most small business owners.

FBR

eagle2
09-04-2010, 11:29 AM
you want good news ? how about this ? Gold is above $1250 an ounce !


And as the real estate market demonstrated, if something is highly valued right now, that means it will eventually keep rising and rising forever and ever!



you want more good news ? how about this ? Polls show the highest probability that 'big spending' democrats will lose congressional seats in November since polling began ... which will in all probability result in 2 years of 'gridlock' as far as new / additional gov't stimulus spending, gov't benefit spending, federal to state bailout spending etc. are concerned.

The 'big spending' Democrats were forced to spend lots of money as a result of the severe economic crisis caused by the party Melonie helped vote into power.

eagle2
09-04-2010, 12:20 PM
While this is nothing more than personal opinion ( again the usual disclaimers ), I will make a blunt statement that US businesses are currently sitting on over 2 trillion dollars worth of 'cash' ... which is arguably being hoarded because the owners / managers of those US businesses have little or no confidence that the direction of the US economy ( or the direction of those US businesses relative to their future role in the global economy ) has turned positive. I'll further state that the single most important factor affecting said US business confidence ( or lack thereof ) is now US gov't policy.
~

As always, Melonie is making stuff up based on her ideology. In the mind of conservative ideologues, government is always the problem, never conservative ideology. In reality, the single most important factor affecting said US business confidence is demand is down. Businesses aren't going to invest and hire new employees if the demand isn't there for their products. Before the economic crisis, Americans were buying 17 million cars a year. Now they're buying 11 million. Obviously, car manufacturers aren't going to invest in new plants and start hiring new workers when the demand isn't there for their products, even though they're all making money.

The real reason confidence is down is because, as Melonie pointed out in another thread, since the 1970's, US GDP has doubled (in constant dollars), while income has remained flat. About the only people who have benefited significantly from all of this economic growth are the wealthiest Americans. That is what happens when you put conservatives in power. If our government were to follow the policies Melonie seems to advocate, of paying American workers $2 an hour, we would be far worse off than we are now.

Melonie
09-04-2010, 01:45 PM
^^^ woah ... I'm not advocating anything, and especially not paying US$2 an hour to unskilled US workers. I merely point out that, at current US dollar exchange rates, unskilled US workers are effectively competing against foreign workers who do get paid US$2 an hour or less with essentially zero benefits. In terms of hard financial decision making, this means long term unemployed unskilled US workers will get paid $0 an hour in wages, but ~$12 an hour in extended unemployment checks and other gov't social welfare benefits for not working. So the important question really becomes how the US gov't intends to continue paying for unskilled US workers to sit at home for the rest of their lives, and what segment of other US workers ( or their children, or their grandchildren ) will wind up being stuck with the tab !

And indeed I will agree with you that recent gov't policies since the Clinton era repeal of the Glass-Steagall act have incentivized the formation of fewer and larger businesses at the 'expense' of smaller businesses - which in turn have increased 'fat cat' earnings while at the same time eliminating unskilled US jobs due to mergers / consolidations. At the moment, one of the best places for 'fat cats' to be is the upper echelons of a Wall St financial firm or a bailed out auto company or a gov't subsidized 'green' industry !

I also agree with you that, in relative terms, indeed US consumer demand is down. However, in absolute terms, demand is just re-balancing to a sustainable level of consumer spending equalling the disposable after-tax income of said consumers ... after experiencing years of unbalanced and unsustainable consumer spending of borrowed money ( arguably made possible by gov't policy re Fannie / Freddie ). So from much more than an ideological viewpoint, gov't policy changes contributed to the problem, encouraged the problem to grow bigger and bigger, and are now making the problem even worse !

(snip)"I like the concept of a "contained depression".

We are certainly in a depression. However, 40 million people on food stamps as of August 2010, masks that depression. The cost of the food stamp program is on schedule to exceed $60 billion in fiscal 2010. For comparison purposes, there was just over 11 million on food stamps in 2005.

Please note there are 14.6 million unemployed, but of them 4.5 million of them are receiving regular unemployment benefits and another 4.7 million are receiving extended benefits [ thanks to repeated congressional re-approvals of extended benefit payments - sic]. Thus 63% of those unemployed are receiving benefits. Being paid while not working also masks the depression.

In addition, there is massive underemployment with 8.5 million working "part time for economic reasons" and another 2.6 million "marginally attached" workers who want a job but are not considered unemployed because they have not looked for 4 weeks. This is "containment" of sorts, as the official numbers mask the depth of the unemployment problem.

Finally, countless millions have not paid their mortgage for months or even a year without being foreclosed on [ thanks to gov't HAMP process mandates - sic]. Free from mortgage expenses but having a place to live certainly makes life a lot easier."(snip)

from

~

Melonie
09-04-2010, 02:30 PM
I could probably justify hiring another few people but am sitting on my hands. I am very concerned about the expirations of the Bush tax cuts. I am very concerned about government run health care and the cost implications to my business. I will most likely just stay the course, not hire anyone and perhaps give the existing employees a nice bonus at year end once again asking and thanking them for their hard work.

I suspect I am pretty typical of most small business owners.

Indeed I hear this from quite a few US businessmen vacationing down here way south of the border. And I also hear it from vacationing businessmen from many Western European countries ( and in particular the UK ). The common thread in all cases is that none of these businessmen have a firm 'handle' on what sort of 'mandated costs' they will actually be subject to next year ... with 'mandated costs' being income taxes, employee benefit costs, regulatory compliance costs, energy / utility costs etc. And without confidence in their future cost picture, which could greatly impact their profit margins, these businessmen are smart enough to understand that if expanding their business actually translates into 'churning more dollars but earning less dollars' - while at the same time forcing them to take on more personal workload, more managerial headaches, and more financial risk - that it makes no logical sense to do so !!!

From a personal standpoint, when these businessmen decide to lighten their workload and spend more of their time and profits vacationing down here way south of the border ... and sometimes wishing to share some of that time and profits with a large breasted expatriate who understands where they are 'coming from' ... it suits me just fine !!! Unfortunately, this situation doesn't do much to help unemployed workers in the US or UK.

~

person
09-04-2010, 04:54 PM
^^^ A very valid point !!! However, while not wanting to blatantly offer any financial advice ( per the usual disclaimers ), if you check out other DD threads you'll find a number of consistent reveferences ....
~

I'm not disagreeing with you - if you can predict macroeconomic trends then of course you can make money off it. I'm just saying that most people seem to be posting along these lines, not just you with your "bad news" ;)

Vamp
09-04-2010, 06:36 PM
I have stayed out this discussion thinking it would slide ........ guess not.

Over the years I have posted mostly in the Dollar Den. I am a banker and not a stripper. I have great respect for strippers so I try to help with any tid bits I can. During this time I have debated Melonie on alot of past threads. I do not always agree with Melonie. But many of her predictions have come to pass.

Its easy to say oh its all doom and gloom things arent bad. The reality IS things are bad and no one knows how to fix it. I dont think Melonie is a negative person. I am not a conservative but im not blind either.

hockeybobby
09-04-2010, 08:18 PM
Its easy to say oh its all doom and gloom things arent bad. The reality IS things are bad and no one knows how to fix it. I dont think Melonie is a negative person. I am not a conservative but im not blind either.

Whether she is a negative person or not (I'm sure she has many positive traits), the fact is Melonie posts exclusively negative news & comments with a decidedly conservative slant.

"The reality is things are bad"?? All things, for all people? Is it possible some things for some people are good? Is it possible that some seemingly bad things will turn out to be good as time passes? Is the glass half empty, or half full?

The thing about thinking things are good or bad is that one of them makes you feel bad, and the other doesn't. It makes no sense, in my opinion, to be blind to the good that is happening. A positive mental attitude is good for hockeybobbys, strippers, and bankers....wouldn't you agree? :)

Vamp
09-04-2010, 09:31 PM
Whether she is a negative person or not (I'm sure she has many positive traits), the fact is Melonie posts exclusively negative news & comments with a decidedly conservative slant.

"The reality is things are bad"?? All things, for all people? Is it possible some things for some people are good? Is it possible that some seemingly bad things will turn out to be good as time passes? Is the glass half empty, or half full?

The thing about thinking things are good or bad is that one of them makes you feel bad, and the other doesn't. It makes no sense, in my opinion, to be blind to the good that is happening. A positive mental attitude is good for hockeybobbys, strippers, and bankers....wouldn't you agree? :)

Since this forum is about money and the discussions in question are about the economy ... that is what i was referencing. More plainly put the economy is bad. It isn't recovering. All the regulations, bailouts , and spin they have made to fix it havent done anything. Might of slowed the bleeding but there is still a massive wound.

Things bad for me? Hell no. I have more business then I can handle. Does that make the economy better? no. I am dealing with these new regulations daily. They dont change anything except the paperwork.

Look bottom line is this, people can either bury their heads in the sand and pretend all is right with the world or they can read the writing on the wall and prepare for it. If we just get hung up about politics .. which is what the media continues to drum up ... and not the facts nothing will change. Read the facts between the lines.

Melonie
09-05-2010, 05:52 AM
^^^ thanks Vamp for injecting some objectivity, as well as again pointing out that DD is supposed to be about money and the economy ( well, to the degree that it's still possible to discuss money and the economy without having to deal with gov'ts economic policy effects, anyhow - which is NOT ).



Things bad for me? Hell no. I have more business then I can handle. Does that make the economy better? no

Indeed not everyone is negatively affected by current economic conditions. In fact, I'm actually embarrassed and guilty to tell any of you how well my precious metals, Swiss Francs, and other investments have performed this year. Same is true of the vacationing north american and western european businessmen whose private yachts continue to sail into my cay ! But the fact remains that 'regular people' are paying the price for the increased profitability of those businessmen ( which are mainly due to firing some of those 'regular people'), as well as 'regular people's typical savings and investments treading water at best.

And where dancers are concerned, with the exception of some small percentage of upscale dancers who are in a position to 'cash in' on a customer base consisting of those profitable upscale businessmen, most dancers depend on 'regular people' as their customer base. Thus if 'regular people' are doing poorly from an economic standpoint this will directly affect the earnings potential of those dancers !!!

Putting on 'rose colored glasses' will not change this economic reality for those dancers. However, recognizing that today's bad dancer earnings potential situation is not likely to get better anytime soon DOES provide these dancers an opportunity to take actions which may mitigate the personal impact ... from staying out of debt on the expenditures side, to relocating to a different state where the customer base is more upscale and the state / local tax burden allows them to keep a greater amount of their earnings, to investing in themselves to the point of being able to move to more upscale clubs on the income side !


I dont think Melonie is a negative person

Thank you for recognizing this !!! But for better or worse, like yourself I can't play 'Ostrich' in regard to the actual state of the economy even though I have personally managed to avoid being impacted by it in a negative way.


Melonie posts exclusively negative news & comments with a decidedly conservative slant.

If I don't post about such things, usually nobody else will ! And I would argue strenuously that your 'conservative' should actually be 'objective'. In my own defense I must make a blunt and politically incorrect statement ... when 'official' gov't statistics and mainstream financial media reports choose to spin / cherry-pick / selectively report on actual financial facts in ( what one must assume to be a deliberate ) attempt to portray the true economic situation in far more optimistic terms than is actually the case, then anybody who points out the 'holes' is automatically cast in a negative light. Hell, I even attempted to post some truly 'doom and gloom' stuff from various authors in order to create some perspective that my posts are nowhere near as 'doomy and gloomy' as some of the stuff being floated. All that got me was additional criticism !

In the final analysis, there is really only one set of facts for everyone. If some of those facts are negative ( and unfortunately, at the moment, the vast majority of them are), please don't 'blame the messenger' for that negativity !

~

hockeybobby
09-05-2010, 07:21 AM
Oh come on Mel, you've been posting your conservative ideology every day I've been on this site....regardless of the state of the economy. Objective? Yeah right.

Sure strippers should be careful about debt, and change clubs to improve their situation if it makes sense, but improving their lot is best served by avoiding your posts at all costs. A negative attitude is death for a salesperson....anyone really. This is a support site for strippers. Telling them the country is fucked every day is not helpful.

Vamp
09-05-2010, 08:16 AM
I remeber years ago (when I was a new born banker ) Melonie talking about banks buying up subprime securities with their assets. She was predicting those securities would tank and the banks with them. I responded by saying banks wouldnt cut their own throats ...........:O
I have learned alot since then ... I will even admit DEBATING Melonie has helped that learning process. Learning outside the box, canned, pasturized process that is spoon fed us is important.

I have clients that come in to see me every day that ask me what is going on, how bad is it, what can they do? These are face to face discussions. The reason I have so much business is because I tell them the truth. I don't sugar coat it. People give me their money to take care of because my motto is plan for the worst and hope for the best. Some think I am negative. But i still keep their money safe.

Look this is a forum. Debating is a healthy. The problem is no one is debating. If you want other views expressed, Express them! Everyone thinks there is a better way but no one wants to put in the time. They just want Melonie to change it seems.

I dont agree with Melonie on ALOT of things. But i think it is safe to say her financial advise on this forum has helped more strippers then anyone else's.

princessjas
09-05-2010, 08:44 AM
Oh come on Mel, you've been posting your conservative ideology every day I've been on this site....regardless of the state of the economy. Objective? Yeah right.

Sure strippers should be careful about debt, and change clubs to improve their situation if it makes sense, but improving their lot is best served by avoiding your posts at all costs. A negative attitude is death for a salesperson....anyone really. This is a support site for strippers. Telling them the country is fucked every day is not helpful.

This!! I avoid these negative posts at all costs, because well, they just aren't helpful in any way. The ONLY thing they do it cause my attitude and confidence to tank. Negative attitude = shitty money. It really is as simple as that.

hockeybobby
09-05-2010, 09:08 AM
I have clients that come in to see me every day that ask me what is going on, how bad is it, what can they do?

I doubt you are advising them to leave the country to avoid taxes, or stock up on gold, guns, and groceries. I imagine your advice would mesh nicely with the products your bank offers...which is just good business/salesmanship.

Vamp
09-05-2010, 09:19 AM
I doubt you are advising them to leave the country to avoid taxes, or stock up on gold, guns, and groceries. I imagine your advice would mesh nicely with the products your bank offers...which is just good business/salesmanship.


We discuss gold and worse case scenerios. Yes some of what I discuss leads back to the products our financial institution offers but not all of them. I do not play a used car sales man song and dance. In any case that was just an example.

From the sounds of it you want Zig Ziglar and Tony Robbins in the dollar den.

btw there is a Dancer's Wealth program .... she posts in the hustle hut

I do not post here about salesmanship because I am not a stripper. But I have answered questions about getting a loan for a car, house, rebuilding credit, debit card disputes, IRA etc.

hockeybobby
09-05-2010, 09:40 AM
From the sounds of it you want Zig Ziglar and Tony Robbins in the dollar den.

If their message is "the sky is not actually falling today"....any messenger will do....even Borat.

http://dreamalittledream.ca/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/two-thumbs-up.jpg

FBR
09-05-2010, 02:27 PM
^ HB those of us who have concerns are not that comical figure.

FBR

hockeybobby
09-05-2010, 03:35 PM
FBR: you are a wise, battle hardened businessman. You've weathered this, and many other storms. Stay nimble...but don't forget to smell the RR Roses. You live in the second best country in the world (next to Canada :) ), fear not.

eagle2
09-05-2010, 09:45 PM
^^^ woah ... I'm not advocating anything, and especially not paying US$2 an hour to unskilled US workers. I merely point out that, at current US dollar exchange rates, unskilled US workers are effectively competing against foreign workers who do get paid US$2 an hour or less with essentially zero benefits. In terms of hard financial decision making, this means long term unemployed unskilled US workers will get paid $0 an hour in wages, but ~$12 an hour in extended unemployment checks and other gov't social welfare benefits for not working. So the important question really becomes how the US gov't intends to continue paying for unskilled US workers to sit at home for the rest of their lives, and what segment of other US workers ( or their children, or their grandchildren ) will wind up being stuck with the tab !


There are still plenty of unskilled labor jobs paying $12 an hour in this country that can't be performed by workers in other countries for $2 an hour. There are jobs in the retail, construction, restaurant, airline and health care industries to name a few. There is still manufacturing. A significant numbers of American workers are employed in the auto manufacturing, steel, and aerospace industries. In addition, just because someone is an unskilled worker doesn't mean they can't go to school and acquire skills that are in demand. The current number of employed unskilled workers has fallen as a result of the economic downturn, especially in the construction industry, but this doesn't mean that every unskilled worker is going to spend the rest of their life sitting at home collecting unemployment or welfare. Just because the unemployment rate is high now, doesn't mean it's going to stay that way forever.

There are a number of trends that will improve the employment outlook in the future. As I mentioned before, over the next 20 years, 75 million baby-boomers will be retiring. In addition, the number of available workers in other countries will be falling also. With China's one-child policy, the number of workers entering the labor force there is falling. The same thing in Mexico, where the birth-rate has fallen significantly. The situation isn't going to turn around over night, but over time, things will get better.



And indeed I will agree with you that recent gov't policies since the Clinton era repeal of the Glass-Steagall act have incentivized the formation of fewer and larger businesses at the 'expense' of smaller businesses - which in turn have increased 'fat cat' earnings while at the same time eliminating unskilled US jobs due to mergers / consolidations. At the moment, one of the best places for 'fat cats' to be is the upper echelons of a Wall St financial firm or a bailed out auto company or a gov't subsidized 'green' industry !

except for the ones that got fired.



I also agree with you that, in relative terms, indeed US consumer demand is down. However, in absolute terms, demand is just re-balancing to a sustainable level of consumer spending equalling the disposable after-tax income of said consumers ... after experiencing years of unbalanced and unsustainable consumer spending of borrowed money ( arguably made possible by gov't policy re Fannie / Freddie ). So from much more than an ideological viewpoint, gov't policy changes contributed to the problem, encouraged the problem to grow bigger and bigger, and are now making the problem even worse !


It wasn't just Fannie / Freddie providing credit to consumers that were on a spending spree in the years before the crisis.



(snip)"I like the concept of a "contained depression".

We are certainly in a depression. However, 40 million people on food stamps as of August 2010, masks that depression. The cost of the food stamp program is on schedule to exceed $60 billion in fiscal 2010. For comparison purposes, there was just over 11 million on food stamps in 2005.

Please note there are 14.6 million unemployed, but of them 4.5 million of them are receiving regular unemployment benefits and another 4.7 million are receiving extended benefits [ thanks to repeated congressional re-approvals of extended benefit payments - sic]. Thus 63% of those unemployed are receiving benefits. Being paid while not working also masks the depression.

In addition, there is massive underemployment with 8.5 million working "part time for economic reasons" and another 2.6 million "marginally attached" workers who want a job but are not considered unemployed because they have not looked for 4 weeks. This is "containment" of sorts, as the official numbers mask the depth of the unemployment problem.

Finally, countless millions have not paid their mortgage for months or even a year without being foreclosed on [ thanks to gov't HAMP process mandates - sic]. Free from mortgage expenses but having a place to live certainly makes life a lot easier."(snip)

from http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/contained-depression.html

~

It's still a lot better than in the 1930's when if you didn't have money to buy food, you went hungry.

eagle2
09-05-2010, 10:13 PM
Since this forum is about money and the discussions in question are about the economy ... that is what i was referencing. More plainly put the economy is bad. It isn't recovering. All the regulations, bailouts , and spin they have made to fix it havent done anything. Might of slowed the bleeding but there is still a massive wound.

Things bad for me? Hell no. I have more business then I can handle. Does that make the economy better? no. I am dealing with these new regulations daily. They dont change anything except the paperwork.

Look bottom line is this, people can either bury their heads in the sand and pretend all is right with the world or they can read the writing on the wall and prepare for it. If we just get hung up about politics .. which is what the media continues to drum up ... and not the facts nothing will change. Read the facts between the lines.

Nobody is saying that all is right with the world. The employment situation is bad and will probably stay bad for some time. I don't know of anyone denying it. It doesn't mean everything is bad. Inflation is low. Hundreds of thousands of workers aren't being laid off every month like they were a year and a half ago. For anyone looking to buy a house, housing is more affordable than it's been in probably decades. The stock market has been doing well over the past year and a half. The doom and gloom predictions Melonie frequently posts have not come true and probably won't. There aren't any food riots in the US. The shelves in the grocery stores are full. The US government hasn't defaulted on Treasury Bills. Interest rates are low. American auto manufacturers haven't gone bankrupt. There's no hyper-inflation or 50% inflation here. For those Americans who don't have a job and want one, things are bad, but our country is not on the verge of collapse.

person
09-06-2010, 02:44 AM
If their message is "the sky is not actually falling today"....any messenger will do....even Borat.


I've never found a good source, but people say he used to be a quant at Golden Sacks. Mad respect.
http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/sacha-baron-cohen-borat-worked-as-an-analyst-for-gs

Melonie
09-07-2010, 03:22 AM
The shelves in the grocery stores are full

yes, but recently with smaller package sizes and higher 'unit' prices


The US government hasn't defaulted on Treasury Bills

technically true at the federal level ( to the degree that foreign US T bond owners are getting paid back in devalued dollars versus their home currency Yen or Euros ). Already not true at the state level ( example PA missed bond payment coming out of the pocket of the bond insurer this month )


Interest rates are low

Partially true in that gov't subsidized interest rates for certain borrowers are low and that interest rates paid to savers are low. However, without a gov't sanction, market interest rates are already rather high if an actual approval of the loan can be found at all ( example $1 million real estate, consumer credit cards, used cars )


American auto manufacturers haven't gone bankrupt

Oh please ! FORD hasn't gone bankrupt ! And all have received billions in gov't grant money / gov't guarantees of unfunded pensions, etc.


There's no hyper-inflation or 50% inflation here

true at the moment, and on the average. However, there has been MAJOR price inflation in the area of 'necessities' counterbalanced by price deflation in the area of 'luxuries'.