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eagle2
07-05-2017, 02:36 PM
IMO, $13 an hour is too high. I think $10 or $11 is reasonable, and $7.25 is too low. There needs to be a medium where workers get paid decent wages, but are still affordable for the business.

KatyBoleyn
07-05-2017, 05:17 PM
You have been proven correct on BOTH counts. McDonald's and other fast food chains are going to automated ordering.

Seattle was studied , TWICE , to see the effects of a $13 Minimum wage. According to Jacob Vigdor and his colleagues at the University Of Washington ( hardly a hot bed of free market economics btw ). First when the minimum wage went to $11 an hour in April , 2015 the low-wage job market did not experience any major or noticeable effects. But when it was increased to $13 an hour in January , 2016 there was a reduction in the number of low-wage jobs. Hours worked at low-wage jobs dropped 9 %. Vigdor admitted that he and other academics were surprised that the drop in jobs and hours worked resulted in a LOSS OF INCOME of $125 per month per worker.

Vigdor had the integrity and intellectual honesty to look at the rest of Washington where the minimum wage had not been dramatically increased. There were NO Changes.

The problem is that most businesses that employ large numbers of low wage workers : restaurants , hotels , retail etc. have very narrow margins. They simply can't afford a $13 hourly wage without cutting back somewhere else.

They were surprised because that study was a complete anomaly based on previous studies. Looking further into it, it was also deeply flawed. It didn't include about 40% of the minimum wage workforce at all in the area, and it also eliminated most employers that operated across multiple sites for some reason (such as fast food chains and retailers). The very people we're supposed to be looking at in such a study were eliminated from it.


First, their data exclude workers at businesses that have more than one location; in other words, while workers at a standalone mom-and-pop restaurant show up in their results, workers at Starbucks and McDonald's don't. Almost 40 percent of workers in Washington state work at multi-location businesses, and since Seattle's minimum wage increase has been larger at large businesses than at small ones -- right now, a worker at a company with more than 500 employees is guaranteed $13.50 an hour, while a worker at a company with fewer than 500 employees is guaranteed only $11 an hour -- these workers' exclusion from the study's results is an especially germane problem (note that low-wage workers in Seattle have had an incentive to switch from small firms to large firms since the minimum wage started rising).

There's also this:

http://www.epi.org/publication/the-high-road-seattle-labor-market-and-the-effects-of-the-minimum-wage-increase-data-limitations-and-methodological-problems-bias-new-analysis-of-seattles-minimum-wage-incr/

But hey, who you gonna believe? A study that says everyone is losing money and it sucks...or your own lying ears when everyone you talk to there (except corporations) is pretty happy with the deal?

I'm personally tired of subsidizing fast food joints and Walmart with my tax dollars...if they aren't profitable without my tax money, they shouldn't be in business.

Seriously, why do anti-minimum wage people hate the free market?

blondhottie
07-05-2017, 07:41 PM
The minimum wage here in Wisconsin is still $7.25. It hasn't been raised since 2008. I don't know how anybody can live on that. The cost of living here is cheap compared to a lot of places, but still.

Eric Stoner
07-06-2017, 07:39 AM
They were surprised because that study was a complete anomaly based on previous studies. Looking further into it, it was also deeply flawed. It didn't include about 40% of the minimum wage workforce at all in the area, and it also eliminated most employers that operated across multiple sites for some reason (such as fast food chains and retailers). The very people we're supposed to be looking at in such a study were eliminated from it.


First, their data exclude workers at businesses that have more than one location; in other words, while workers at a standalone mom-and-pop restaurant show up in their results, workers at Starbucks and McDonald's don't. Almost 40 percent of workers in Washington state work at multi-location businesses, and since Seattle's minimum wage increase has been larger at large businesses than at small ones -- right now, a worker at a company with more than 500 employees is guaranteed $13.50 an hour, while a worker at a company with fewer than 500 employees is guaranteed only $11 an hour -- these workers' exclusion from the study's results is an especially germane problem (note that low-wage workers in Seattle have had an incentive to switch from small firms to large firms since the minimum wage started rising).

There's also this:

http://www.epi.org/publication/the-high-road-seattle-labor-market-and-the-effects-of-the-minimum-wage-increase-data-limitations-and-methodological-problems-bias-new-analysis-of-seattles-minimum-wage-incr/

But hey, who you gonna believe? A study that says everyone is losing money and it sucks...or your own lying ears when everyone you talk to there (except corporations) is pretty happy with the deal?

I'm personally tired of subsidizing fast food joints and Walmart with my tax dollars...if they aren't profitable without my tax money, they shouldn't be in business.

Seriously, why do anti-minimum wage people hate the free market?

MOOSE MUFFINS ! If you bothered to READ their study and the follow-up articles that Vigdor has submitted to a variety of media you would clearly see that A. the study was based on data collected by the State of Washington ( not the Club For Growth or Heritage Foundation ) covering almost every worker who receives a W-2. McDonald"s and other major franchises are well known for having EVERYONE work ON THE BOOKS. B. Vigdor's colleagues at the University of Washington (who worked with him on the study) conducted their own survey of 500 licensed Seattle businesses , many of them with MORE THAN ONE LOCATION ! Owners of these chains were MORE LIKELY to report cutting jobs compared to one location companies.

Where the potential gaps in the study exist ( freely admitted by Vigdor and his colleagues ) are with contractors i.e. people in the "gig" economy or those working off the books.

Were there prior studies showing that increases in the minimum wage had a minimal effect on employment ? Yes, but those studies involved STATE-WIDE increases and the increases were much more moderate than Seattle's jump to $11 and then $13 an hour.

If you have read MY prior posts in this forum over the years you would see that I have repeatedly and consistently supported sensible, moderate increases in the minimum wage putting me at odds with many conservatives and free-market economists. I support increases that employers can absorb and adjust to. As I've said : " O.K. so we pay a nickel more for a Big Mac and a dime more for a pair of shorts." Prior studies dealt with sensible , moderate increases in the minimum wage and showed that when one state had a sensible increase it did NOT result in an exodus of employers and jobs to neighboring states that did not have an increase. Contrast that with tax and regulatory policy which is much more likely to result in employers and jobs going to greener pastures.

The REAL problem is that most advocates of $13 or even $15 an hour tout it as a way to address income inequality. If that is the real objective then it is doomed to failure. Because that is neither the root cause nor the cure for income inequality. The REAL cure is corporate tax reform to enable them to give American workers the REAL wage increase they have been denied for going on 17 years. Real wages have not increased since 2000. Another REAL cure is Education Reform to train American workers to fill many good paying jobs that are currently unfilled. So is radical reform of the H1-B Visa program where American workers are forced to train their lower wage replacements before being laid off. So is radical tax reform that will force the Warren Buffets and John Kerrys of this country to pay more than 8 to 12 % of their income in taxes.

Eric Stoner
07-06-2017, 07:45 AM
The minimum wage here in Wisconsin is still $7.25. It hasn't been raised since 2008. I don't know how anybody can live on that. The cost of living here is cheap compared to a lot of places, but still.

I am sorry but it has been repeatedly reported and posted in this forum : You are not supposed to "live" on the minimum wage. That is why we have an Earned Income Tax Credit. And SNAP ( formerly known as Food Stamps ) and subsidized rents, Medicaid and other programs designed to help the working poor. And I have always supported helping the working poor. If for no other reason than to paraphrase the great Emil Faber : "Working is good. " It is a positive in and of itself for the individual and for society at large.

O.K. for extra credit - Who knows who Emil Faber was ? Cue the theme from Jeopardy.

Eric Stoner
07-06-2017, 07:51 AM
IMO, $13 an hour is too high. I think $10 or $11 is reasonable, and $7.25 is too low. There needs to be a medium where workers get paid decent wages, but are still affordable for the business.

Alert the media ! Yet another instance where Eagle and I agree. I think I'll go for a urine test just to play it safe lol.

minnow
07-06-2017, 09:24 AM
O.K. for extra credit - Who knows who Emil Faber was ? Cue the theme from Jeopardy.

I see you're a fan of 1 of my 3 top favorite comedy movies. "Emil Faber" was a fictitious founder of "Faber University" in the movie "National Lampoon Animal House." Opening scene shows the statue with "knowledge is good" quote.

Another bit of trivia: Much of the college scenes in Animal House were filmed in Boring, Oregon. How apropos !!

Eric Stoner
07-06-2017, 10:08 AM
I see you're a fan of 1 of my 3 top favorite comedy movies. "Emil Faber" was a fictitious founder of "Faber University" in the movie "National Lampoon Animal House." Opening scene shows the statue with "knowledge is good" quote.

Another bit of trivia: Much of the college scenes in Animal House were filmed in Boring, Oregon. How apropos !!

We have a winner ! Eagle has promised to donate a gently used Chevy Volt to the first correct poster.

Kidding. Just kidding.

KatyBoleyn
07-06-2017, 10:27 AM
I am sorry but it has been repeatedly reported and posted in this forum : You are not supposed to "live" on the minimum wage. That is why we have an Earned Income Tax Credit. And SNAP ( formerly known as Food Stamps ) and subsidized rents, Medicaid and other programs designed to help the working poor. And I have always supported helping the working poor...

All of these things are subsidies paid primarily by the middle class to support unprofitable corporations. The people that should be supporting the "working poor" are their employers. I don't shop at Walmart or eat at McDonalds. Why should the Walton family get a thin dime of my money by virtue of the fact they don't pay their workers enough to live? This is pure anti-capitalism bullshit...social welfare for the rich and poor and the middle pays the price.

It also simply sucks for the poor getting these things. They have that much extra paperwork and people to answer to just to stay alive and on the straight and narrow. So many extra hours per day wasted on just keeping up. Then they can't even enjoy a good spliff or some random pee test will take it all away. Its degrading and humiliating...and pointless.

The solution is simple...a rule that says if you employ someone, you owe them a living wage. If you can't hack it, you will be replaced by a business that can. I won't shed a tear if poor Walmart goes under and my town square shops return.

Don't misunderstand me, I'm all about some good social welfare...as a fallback position though and not a default one for those that are working.

Eric Stoner
07-06-2017, 11:37 AM
All of these things are subsidies paid primarily by the middle class to support unprofitable corporations. The people that should be supporting the "working poor" are their employers. I don't shop at Walmart or eat at McDonalds. Why should the Walton family get a thin dime of my money by virtue of the fact they don't pay their workers enough to live? This is pure anti-capitalism bullshit...social welfare for the rich and poor and the middle pays the price.

It also simply sucks for the poor getting these things. They have that much extra paperwork and people to answer to just to stay alive and on the straight and narrow. So many extra hours per day wasted on just keeping up. Then they can't even enjoy a good spliff or some random pee test will take it all away. Its degrading and humiliating...and pointless.

The solution is simple...a rule that says if you employ someone, you owe them a living wage. If you can't hack it, you will be replaced by a business that can. I won't shed a tear if poor Walmart goes under and my town square shops return.

Don't misunderstand me, I'm all about some good social welfare...as a fallback position though and not a default one for those that are working.

I am sorry but again you are deliberately misunderstanding me and misrepresenting my positions. It is NOT the job of an employer to pay a "living wage " or be "socially responsible ". It is their job to make money. Period. Legally and ethically ( broadly defined ) but that is their function.

We are all responsible for helping the poor. Why are they poor ? Because they don't have enough money to live decently. So the best way to help them is to GIVE THEM MONEY. I have long supported a negative income tax to make sure that the poor , preferably the working poor , have a decent life. We could replace a laundry list of government programs and do more good at a lower cost.

Who has ranted about corporate welfare and crony capitalism more than me ?

I don't shop at Walmart either but it's because for the most part they sell cheap garbage.

eagle2
07-06-2017, 01:25 PM
I see you're a fan of 1 of my 3 top favorite comedy movies. "Emil Faber" was a fictitious founder of "Faber University" in the movie "National Lampoon Animal House." Opening scene shows the statue with "knowledge is good" quote.

Another bit of trivia: Much of the college scenes in Animal House were filmed in Boring, Oregon. How apropos !!

Congratulations Minnow! Here is your prize:

http://media.caranddriver.com/images/media/51/2017-chevrolet-corvette-grand-sport-inline2-photo-669030-s-original.jpg

A 2017 Chevrolet Corvette Grand Sport image file!

WendiStarr
07-06-2017, 06:05 PM
Minimum wage is damn near impossible to survive on. You have to work a full-time and part-time to survive here. That's what I did until I went to sw full-time. Going up to $8.50 in my state. I still have no interest in returning to the vanilla job market.

KatyBoleyn
07-06-2017, 06:37 PM
I am sorry but again you are deliberately misunderstanding me and misrepresenting my positions. It is NOT the job of an employer to pay a "living wage " or be "socially responsible ". It is their job to make money. Period. Legally and ethically ( broadly defined ) but that is their function.

We are all responsible for helping the poor. Why are they poor ? Because they don't have enough money to live decently. So the best way to help them is to GIVE THEM MONEY. I have long supported a negative income tax to make sure that the poor , preferably the working poor , have a decent life. We could replace a laundry list of government programs and do more good at a lower cost.

Who has ranted about corporate welfare and crony capitalism more than me ?

I don't shop at Walmart either but it's because for the most part they sell cheap garbage.

And that's where we fundamentally disagree.

A reasonable degree of a person's time and efforts ("full time") should translate to a wage that's enough to provide all their basic needs. In the US, this is pegged at 40 hours a week without allowance for anything. In Europe, its fewer hours with generous allowances for child-rearing, vacation, and sick days.

Employers need to bear the "true cost" of having an employee at a minimum standard determined by current law. Being mandatory, everyone is playing by the same rules so competition is a level playing field. Companies are absolutely still free to make a profit any way they wish, without government subsidies that we pay for.

I'd say in most job markets, $13.00/hr + basic benefits is a good start. In urban areas, you can afford to go a lot higher. I've done the books for fast food restaurants...I know exactly what they can afford.

If you want to talk about negative taxation and universal minimum income, we can talk about that also. I'm right there with you. Right now though, minimum wage increases are what would play better in Peoria.

For what its worth, I also support schemes where corporations are monetarily (at least partially) responsible for the true costs of their environmental damage as well. Again it comes down to why the middle-class taxpayer should be responsible for cleaning upper-class messes.

Eric Stoner
07-07-2017, 08:14 AM
^^^ You are entitled to your opinion but the facts and history bear me out.
There was just a study published that showed that an excessive minimum wage results in LESS employment.
You are right that many European countries have much more generous social welfare than we do. They also have much higher taxation and stagnant economies.
And the benefits that you applaud are provided for the most part by GOVERNMENT , not employers.
Your proposals and philosophy have directly led to increased out-sourcing ; more hiring off the books and increased use of the um , er, undocumented.
Increased minimum wages may play better but NOT when people know all the facts. In Maine, restaurant workers lobbied for a LOWER minimum wage. Why ? Because they feared exactly what happened in Seattle. Fewer jobs , fewer hours and less income.
Rather than worry so much about the minimum wage the objective ought to be to get people OUT of minimum wage jobs. Which is why it is much more cost-effective to focus on education and job training.
What is wrong with paying minimum wage to trainees ? They don't know anything and COST the company money until they learn how to do their job.
Or high-schoolers ? Or retirees who want to earn a little extra money ?
For those dependent on a minimum wage job for survival ( and there are too many such folks ) a negative income tax would be the best way to help them maintain a decent standard of living. And yet we ought to be careful not to destroy the incentive to move on and UP.Most minimum wage workers are NOT earning minimum wage within two years of being hired. They get raises and promotions and/or move to better paying jobs.
Rather than focus on punishing success ( higher taxes on the top 10 % ) why not focus on raising the condition of the bottom 90 % ?
If ,as you say , fast food eateries can afford to pay $13 an hour , plus benefits then why are they automating so much ?

As to your last point , which btw is beyond the scope of THIS topic and discussion , I agree with you. Polluters ought to pay for cleaning up their own mess.

WendiStarr
07-07-2017, 01:06 PM
^ That is true. I wasted 2 and a half years at a minimum wage job with no significant raises. A 5 cent raise means nothing after that long with the cost of rent, food, and utilities rising. It's a shame, really. Unfortunately I do not see things improving for the poor.

Eric Stoner
07-14-2017, 11:25 AM
According to Bankrate.com 44 million Americans have "side hustles ". 86% work at their second job or sideline at least once a month and 36% of them earn at least $500 a month. Baby boomers aged 53 to 62 are most likely to earn AT LEAST an extra $1000 a month. Most analysts say that a lot of this is "off the books" and some is dancing and ahem other "adult activity" engaged in anywhere from once a week to once a month.

Eric Stoner
10-01-2019, 10:46 AM
I TOLD YOU SO ! :
The $15 minimum wage in NYC is killing vulnerable small businesses . Especially in the restaurant biz. thanks to a separate wage hike for tipped workers. 3/4 of the restaurants in NYC have had to cut employee hours. 1/3 eliminated jobs last year and plan to cut staff this year.
Then there are the dozens of retail stores closing. And many others that have reduced hours and laid off personnel.
And last but not least are the businesses that never started. Storefront vacancies in SOME NYC areas ( including the 50's in Manhattan ) are at near record levels. Now , not all of that is a result of the increased minimum wage. Much is a result of overbuilding of commercial space , high taxes ( especially the commercial real estate tax passed on to tenants ), high rents and utilities and a labyrinth of rules and regs.

eagle2
10-02-2019, 12:47 AM
https://www.nelp.org/news-releases/report-five-years-minimum-wage-increases-new-york-citys-restaurant-industry-thriving/

REPORT: AFTER FIVE YEARS OF MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES, NEW YORK CITY’S RESTAURANT INDUSTRY IS THRIVING

INFLATION-ADJUSTED WAGES RISE 20-28% FOR RESTAURANT WORKERS

New York, NY—Five years after New York State passed the first of several laws to gradually raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour, New York City’s restaurant industry continues to thrive, with strong growth in restaurant industry employment, wages, and the number of establishments around the city, according to a new report released today by the Center for New York City Affairs at The New School and the National Employment Law Project.

The report’s findings of a prospering restaurant industry are in sharp contrast to the “sky is falling” rhetoric of industry lobbyists who warned of massive job losses, $20 Big Macs, and shuttered restaurants. The report offers a first-of-its-kind assessment of restaurant employment and earnings over the entire period of the city’s historic minimum wage increases, during which the wage floor rose from $7.25 to $15.00 an hour.

The restaurant industry has the highest proportion of workers affected by the minimum wage of any industry. Researchers analyzed comprehensive employment, wage, and restaurant establishment data between 2013 and 2018 to assess the impact of the higher minimum wage on New York City’s restaurant industry. They found that during this period, New York City saw a strong economic expansion of the restaurant industry, outpacing national growth in employment, annual wages, and the number of both limited- and full-service restaurant establishments.

Read more:
https://www.nelp.org/news-releases/report-five-years-minimum-wage-increases-new-york-citys-restaurant-industry-thriving/

eagle2
10-02-2019, 12:49 AM
and in Maine, where the minimum wage was raised to $11 an hour:

https://mainebeacon.com/maine-breaks-new-employment-record-as-minimum-wage-increases-continue/

Maine breaks new employment record as minimum wage increases continue

Despite dire predictions from opponents of the 2016 minimum wage referendum, the Department of Labor announced Monday that Maine’s unemployment rate has stayed below four percent for nearly four years. In August, unemployment dipped to 2.9%, a new record low.

This streak is double the previous state record of almost two years, when the unemployment rate in Maine remained below four percent from September 1999 to July 2001.

Maine’s unemployment rate has remained under the national average since the minimum wage law took effect in 2017, after a successful referendum in November 2016, when the wage was $7.50 an hour. Last January, the minimum wage increased from $10 to $11 an hour. It will reach $12 next year, with subsequent yearly increases based on the cost of living. The DOL noted Monday that the non-agriculture and private sectors have each seen a gain of almost 7,000 jobs respectively since August 2018.

Read more...
https://mainebeacon.com/maine-breaks-new-employment-record-as-minimum-wage-increases-continue/

rickdugan
10-02-2019, 07:06 AM
I TOLD YOU SO ! :
The $15 minimum wage in NYC is killing vulnerable small businesses . Especially in the restaurant biz. thanks to a separate wage hike for tipped workers. 3/4 of the restaurants in NYC have had to cut employee hours. 1/3 eliminated jobs last year and plan to cut staff this year.
Then there are the dozens of retail stores closing. And many others that have reduced hours and laid off personnel.
And last but not least are the businesses that never started. Storefront vacancies in SOME NYC areas ( including the 50's in Manhattan ) are at near record levels. Now , not all of that is a result of the increased minimum wage. Much is a result of overbuilding of commercial space , high taxes ( especially the commercial real estate tax passed on to tenants ), high rents and utilities and a labyrinth of rules and regs.

Yup.

https://nypost.com/2019/09/29/15-minimum-wage-hike-is-hitting-hurting-nyc-restaurants/

Notwithstanding the powder puff piece that eagle posted, which went through ridiculous mental gymnastics in bootstrapping apples to oranges national stats and a 6% NYC sales growth statistic, the Post actually dug in by surveying over 300 NYC restaurants. The overwhelming majority have cut staff and reduced hours. Some are even cutting more labor intensive menu items or closing altogether. This makes sense since restaurant margins are always razor thin under the best of conditions and even more so in NYC, where food competition is fierce.

Oh, and as far as his Maine post goes, what was not answered is how much lower unemployment could have been in the absence of the higher minimum wage. Maine is a tiny state to begin with, with only 1.33 million people, so it's questionable how many people were even impacted to begin with. But the most telling stat is the unemployment rate of 16-24 year olds, which has actually risen since the minimum wage hikes started. I guess he missed that too in his hard hitting research. ;)

Eric Stoner
10-02-2019, 08:33 AM
Easy does it. No need to get personal. You are right that the studies Eagle cited to are incomplete. They say nothing about restaurant profitability and nothing about REDUCED hours and REDUCED incomes for restaurant workers.
Just in the last two years New York has seen legendary restaurants close : Le Cirque , Public , Nick and Toni's ( sniff - a personal fave ),Pok Pok Ny ( great low cost Thai that just couldn't pay higher wages and stay open ). I am leaving others like The Four Seasons and Carnegie Deli off the list because they had other issues than just labor costs.
Nationwide some major chains have folded or gone into bankruptcy : Bob Evans , Ruby Tuesday's, Logan's Road House among more than a dozen major chains to go el foldo.
It also increases the incentives to hire the um … er … partially documented.

eagle2
10-03-2019, 12:04 AM
I read that the primary reason why some restaurants in New York City, including Nick and Toni's, closed is because of rising rent costs.

https://patch.com/new-york/upper-west-side-nyc/nick-tonis-cafe-upper-west-side-staple-2-decades-will-close


"The cost of doing business in the city no longer allows us to operate our business,'' managing partner Mark Smith told Eater. "I'm proud of what we accomplished but our lease was up and we tried to negotiate, but the economics have become untenable."


The following article has some of the figures:
https://www.foodrepublic.com/2016/09/08/why-are-so-many-great-nyc-restaurants-closing-its-not-just-the-rent/


The Seagram Building’s owner, RFR Holding, is said to have wanted to raise the Four Seasons’ annual rent to a market rate of $3.7 million from $784,000. Mark Grossich, who took over the Campbell Apartment space 17 years ago, was paying $350,000 a year and offered to pay his landlord, the MTA, $800,000 per year to save his bar. Not enough. Nightlife guru Scott Gerber made a bid for $1.1 million a year, and after a contentious lawsuit with the MTA, Gerber got the deal. Union Square Café’s rent was tripled.


A rent increase from $784k to $3.7 million or from $350k to $1.1 million probably has a much bigger impact on a restaurant business, than increasing the pay for the lowest paid workers by $5 to $7.

Eric Stoner
10-03-2019, 09:23 AM
EAGLE ! - Not only did I leave restaurants like The Four Seasons OFF the list of restaurants forced to close but I said it was because they had OTHER ISSUES besides just higher labor costs.
You are partially correct that higher rents are a major issue in NYC restaurant closures BUT when you pile increased labor costs on top of higher rents it accounts for almost ALL of the major closures of otherwise profitable , successful and POPULAR places.
More importantly , NYC has raised the minimum wage a LOT higher than $7. For "fast food " workers who generally do not get tips the minimum wage is now $15 an hour . For food service tipped workers it is $10 an hour with a $5 an hour credit for tips.

The big takeaway is the REDUCED hours for many waiters , waitresses and bartenders resulting in a net loss of income. That's for those whose employer did not lay them off.

eagle2
10-03-2019, 06:54 PM
EAGLE ! - Not only did I leave restaurants like The Four Seasons OFF the list of restaurants forced to close but I said it was because they had OTHER ISSUES besides just higher labor costs.

I was only using the Four Seasons as an example of how much the rent had increased. A restaurant in a similar situation that was earning $2.5 million a year profit, would go from earning $2.5 million to losing $200,000 a year under the new lease terms offered, based on the Four Seasons rent increase.



You are partially correct that higher rents are a major issue in NYC restaurant closures BUT when you pile increased labor costs on top of higher rents it accounts for almost ALL of the major closures of otherwise profitable , successful and POPULAR places.
More importantly , NYC has raised the minimum wage a LOT higher than $7. For "fast food " workers who generally do not get tips the minimum wage is now $15 an hour . For food service tipped workers it is $10 an hour with a $5 an hour credit for tips.

The big takeaway is the REDUCED hours for many waiters , waitresses and bartenders resulting in a net loss of income. That's for those whose employer did not lay them off.

The previous article I linked to, stated the New York City restaurant industry was seeing strong growth in employment, wages, and the number of establishments around the city, according to a new report released today by the Center for New York City Affairs at The New School and the National Employment Law Project. Here's the report:

https://www.nelp.org/publication/new-york-city-15-minimum-wage-restaurant-employment-earnings/

Perhaps there were some individual restaurants that were negatively affected by the increased minimum wage, but according to the report, the overall restaurant industry in NYC is doing well. The economic expansion that has been going on for the last 8 - 9 years has helped.

Eric Stoner
10-04-2019, 01:01 PM
1. You did not consider the source. NELP is far from dispassionate or unbiased. NELP has been lobbying for increased wages for restaurant workers for some time.
Yes, I will acknowledge that they also bring lawsuits to benefit exploited workers which is fine afaic.
2. NELP does not say what methodology they used ; who they surveyed and how. What data are they relying on for their broad pronouncements ?
3. My focus was on the WORKERS and neither you nor NELP say a word about decreased hours ; lay-offs and reduced earnings.
4. Restaurant owners have clearly said that the higher wages have had an impact.

eagle2
10-04-2019, 04:15 PM
Higher wages obviously are going to have an impact on a business, since it increases expenses. For workers, even if their hours are cut, if they end up making more money for working less hours at a higher rate, they'll end up better off. IMO, the best solution is to come up with a reasonable minimum wage, and tie it to inflation, instead of letting it stay flat for years, and then passing a massive increase. I'm assuming that part of the reasoning for a $15 minimum wage is that it won't be raised again for some time.

OmegaWest
10-05-2019, 01:30 PM
We pay 9-12 dollars an hour for certain positions, mostly those that are not tipped. Our labor cost for salaried and hourly sits at just under 1 million per year, not counting bonuses for performance (making food cost targets etc). And our rates are above state minimums.

Now i can see how going from 7 to 15 would break 90% of all but the top restaurants in any city, not just NYC. I for one will never even bother attempting to open in a place with a mandated absurd $15 for unskilled labor simply because I dont wish to try and convince the consumer they need a $50 appetizer to offset such rates.

Those places with the $15 mandate will see a drastic drop in employment for the unskilled new worker when self order and automation takes over on a much larger scale.

High End have always paid above scale, what this will hurt is the low end of people just starting to enter a workforce, after school and after careers.

Do not try to compare high end locations with low end fast food of which this will harm more than help

in regarding the other issues that the early parts of the thread brought up.

It is not the responsibility of an Employer to provide a so called "living wage". It is to provide a fair wage for a fair days work.

Where I see the biggest issue is this. Unskilled, underskilled, or just plain lazy, do not deserve a mandatory hourly rate higher for a basic task, than what skilled labor gets for their trained occupation.

Would i pay a welder $15-25 dollars an hour for their skill level, damn straight, simply because it is a trained occupation that the everyday Tom Dick or Harry cannot just put on a mask and perform with any skill.

Would I pay a never before having worked employee $9 dollars an hour to wash dishes or cook on an assembly line style fast food place. Sure but not $15.

The biggest problem I see is not the workers who wish to work. It is the cryers and one who protest about and for workers, when they dont bother to work themselves. These social justice idiots, who truly have no clue to reality, or how a business works.

Eric Stoner
10-07-2019, 11:47 AM
Connecticut is a perfect example of how these well intentioned programs backfire. With a population of 3.6 million it has added a grand total of 400 new jobs this year. It is the only state other than Wyoming that has yet to recover all the jobs it lost since December, 2007.
It already had the fourth worst regulatory environment for small business in the U.S. Now it has a $15 statewide minimum wage AND a 0.5% payroll tax to fund mandatory paid leave.

Btw , how is Seattle doing employment wise ? Business creation wise ? Last study I saw said that overall low income earnings were DOWN !

Eric Stoner
10-07-2019, 11:53 AM
Higher wages obviously are going to have an impact on a business, since it increases expenses. For workers, even if their hours are cut, if they end up making more money for working less hours at a higher rate, they'll end up better off. IMO, the best solution is to come up with a reasonable minimum wage, and tie it to inflation, instead of letting it stay flat for years, and then passing a massive increase. I'm assuming that part of the reasoning for a $15 minimum wage is that it won't be raised again for some time.

You never answered my questions about NELP's "surveys" ?

What methodology did they use ? Survey ? Labor Dept. or other government stats ? An academic study like the University of Washington ?
Who was surveyed ? How ? - in person ; telephone ; mail; e-mail ?
What data did they rely on to paint such a rosy picture ?

eagle2
10-08-2019, 10:14 PM
I did searches and wasn't able to find that information. You'll probably have to write them to get it.

Eric Stoner
10-10-2019, 10:46 AM
I did searches and wasn't able to find that information. You'll probably have to write them to get it.

I think you effectively answered my question. Apparently NELP never said which calls their data and conclusions into question.
I did some additional digging into NELP reports and they continually conflate and confuse increases in the FEDERAL Minimum Wage with reported results and impact on employment related thereto and increases in local and state minimum wages. Increases in the Federal minimum wage have had no discernable impact on employment. In fact the latest Jobs Reports from the U.S. Labor Dept. show record low unemployment among African Americans ; African American youth; women ; Latinos and youths as a whole. All these groups dominate low income employment .
With shaky documentation ( at best ) NELP reports as much as a $68 billion increase in wages for workers in places where there is a $15 minimum wage. What they do NOT say are such things as : how many workers were laid off after the $15 wage went into effect ; how many did NOT get hired ; how many had their days and hours reduced ; how many restaurants went out of business. Instead they just make blanket pronouncements about restaurant employment in NYC without any cited evidence to back up their claims.
Worse yet , their $68 billion number is little more than wishful thinking on their part. There are no Census ; Labor Dept. or Taxation Dept. data to support that number. It is nothing more than NELP's own unsupported ESTIMATE of how much restaurant worker incomes increased thanks to a $15 minimum wage. Obviously they blithely ignored all the other possible variables as previously discussed. In other words , if everything else stayed the same i.e. number of employers ; number of workers ; hours worked etc. then restaurant workers incomes would have increased $68 billion according to NELP.
Please pass the salt.