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rickdugan
07-07-2020, 08:20 AM
^ That's a lot of very dramatically written stories for sure. But all of those articles, replete with hyperbole, are spinning cherry picked stats that ignore important population spread and actual death count data.

Here are the simple, unvarnished hard numbers as reported by the CDC:

Number of deaths in the U.S.: 129,811
Number of deaths under 14 years old: 58
Number of death under 24 years old: 342

The numbers are what they are. Now yes every life is precious, but in a nation of 330 million people those under 24 death counts are stunningly low. We can't live being afraid of every remote possible problem or freak bad luck. Over the same period the flu killed a lot more young people than COVID did and we didn't shut schools down for that. Shit more kids died in car accidents this year than they have from COVID, yet we still drive them to school and activities.

So again rational people need to keep their heads, become informed and then use that information to make decisions that work best for their families and situations.

eagle2
07-07-2020, 09:27 AM
The flu kills more children than COVID-19, but COVID-19 kills more young adults. Many people in this forum, probably most of us, are over 24 years old, so your figures are meaningless for most of the people here. It's not just a matter of dying. Many young people who catch the virus become very sick and in many cases need hospitalization. Young people who catch the virus can still pass it to other people, some of whom may be in a high-risk group. The more people who have the virus, the more likely it is that people who don't have the virus will catch it.

Rational people don't think they know better than leading scientists and doctors, what is the best method for containing the virus.

rickdugan
07-07-2020, 09:52 AM
Eagle, it's very contagious so yes, many more people are going to catch it. We're just going to have to live with that fact now and stop believing that we have any realistic chance of suppressing it.

The number of people 44 and under who have died from this is 5,826. Out of 129k+ who have died out of 330 million people nationwide, less than 6,000 were under 44 and frankly some believe that NY and NJ fudged their death numbers to even get it that high. Here in FL the number of people under 40 who have died from this is less than fifty and they all had several co-morbidities.

So once again that brings us back to the land of rational decision-making. Some of us guys hanging around here may surely be older than 44, but most of the ladies here probably are not. Also, I brought up kids earlier because some of us around here are parents and we need to make decisions for them as well.

As far as listening to scientists, who do you think published these numbers at the CDC, journalism experts? :) You should also be wary of any false assumption that you are following the science any more than anyone else because there are stunningly divergent views as to what the "science" is re: COVID.

eagle2
07-07-2020, 10:22 AM
I'm not disputing your figures or that young people are far less likely to die from COVID-19 than old people are. My main point is, death rates by age aren't the only factor young people should be concerned about. I've read of many cases, including one person here, of young people who caught the virus and didn't die, but became very seriously ill and had to go to the hospital. I read one account of a 30 year old female in NYC who caught the virus and became so ill that she had to get down on all fours, just to be able to breathe. Before she caught the virus, she was running 3 miles every day. Now she can't walk more than one or two blocks. Regardless of how likely it is for a person to die from the virus at a specific age, young people are far better off if they don't catch it at all.

rickdugan
07-07-2020, 10:48 AM
Eagle I've read those stories too. But they're one-offs. The overwhelming majority of young people who get it are asymptomatic or experience very mild symptoms. We just can't make decisions about how we tackle everyday needs and activities based upon freak worst case scenarios.

OmegaWest
07-07-2020, 11:26 AM
41 year old actor Nick Cordero died after months-long battle with COVID-19 complications. I don't know if he had any other medical conditions, but he wasn't overweight. I also read that he had to get one of his legs amputated.

diabetic thus in a high risk group

Eric Stoner
07-07-2020, 11:26 AM
People get horribly ill from the flu ; from pneumonia and other things regardless of their age and overall state of health. Sometimes fatally.

Rick , myself ,GR and others are talking about the odds , the percentages of catching Covid ; getting seriously ill ( I mean HOSPITALIZED ! ) and God forbid dying. We never shut down because of the flu ; or meningitis or a host of other serious and highly contagious diseases. The states and countries that have low death rates protected their elderly and did not release infected prisoners from prison or jail. That is the most key stat; the DEATH RATE. Next is the hospitalization rate. A lot of these "new cases " are young, healthy, asymptomatic people who tested positive for either the virus or Covid antibodies. With all these new cases the key stats to keep watching are the death rate and the hospitalization rate.

Btw, the latest studies on the use of hydroxychloroquine show it halves the death rate.

OmegaWest
07-07-2020, 11:35 AM
and noone should think they should self administer meds, like the lady giving to her daughter who died. Drugs must be given in proper dosages and not mixed with others that may cause a fatal reaction.

kamiliam
07-07-2020, 01:11 PM
I just want to clarify that if the numbers were switched, and children died at the same rate the elderly and people with health conditions are dying now, you all would support that this is serious and we need to do whatever we can to stop it? The arguments you all are using only work on those who already believe the same as you. A lot of people who support reasonable actions to combat this don’t care about the age of the victim, just that people are dying.

rickdugan
07-07-2020, 01:52 PM
Kam, I get where you're coming from. But for me the "who" and "how many" do matter because they speak to how we can reasonably protect those who need it while still keeping a functioning society. Children cannot reasonably protect themselves from this but most older adults can. If a 70 year old man with several co-morbidities catches it now, despite everything that we know, then either he didn't protect himself or, if he is in assisted living, the facility failed in its job to keep him safe.

Florida is increasingly becoming the model for keeping a functioning society while COVID is with us. Yes it is spreading faster now, yet our death rates are not spiking. Why? Because now it is mostly young people getting it. We have our nursing facilities on lockdown and most of the rest of our vulnerable population is taking steps to protect themselves (masks, sanitizing, etc.). Heck county health departments here will give free PPE to anyone who calls and asks for it.

This understanding of who COVID is really deadly to is how FL, a state of 22 million people (larger than NY's population), has kept deaths to under 4,000 even while it opened early, closed later and had very loose lockdowns even when they did exist. Now our kids are back playing sports and getting ready to return to school and parents are increasingly returning to their job sites.

Djoser
07-07-2020, 01:54 PM
There's a very well known guy in the stripping industry here who claimed it was just a hoax to take down Trump.

Younger guy, in very good shape.

Guess who's now sick as a fucking dog with the virus?

kamiliam
07-07-2020, 02:07 PM
70 isn’t that old nowadays, plenty of people work well into their 70s, including many politicians who refuse(d) to use a mask. My grandmother was over 100 thus why her dying wasn’t a shock, she was a rarity and thus for her she needed to be isolated from a lot of people and things.

They also aren’t all in homes which newsflash are staffed by younger people with families. Where I live decent nursing homes cost around 10k a month, do you think all old people can afford that?

Also because of Medicare the elderly have better health benefits in as much that they have contact with doctors unlike numerous young adults. For this to engulf a population which by in large are the most monitored medically how on earth would that look if it hit another population? Everyone who is engaging in society has the responsibility to be safe. You also didn’t answer.

rickdugan
07-07-2020, 02:57 PM
I did address your question: IMHO it is an apples and bananas comparison for reasons I made very clear. As far as the rest, FL has managed to protect nursing homes very well and our more mobile seniors are doing the same for themselves. At this point if a 70 year old man with several co-morbidities is dumb enough to leave the house without PPE then that is on him. We can't keep our kids out of school and activities forever or their parents out of work just to protect those who should know better by now.

miss.a.p1600
07-07-2020, 04:55 PM
There's a very well known guy in the stripping industry here who claimed it was just a hoax to take down Trump.

Younger guy, in very good shape.

Guess who's now sick as a fucking dog with the virus?

remember that pro basketball dude who said the same thing, touched all the mics before he left his interview with reporters.

turned out he had coronavirus (asymptomatic) and infected a couple of his teammates.

I’d protect myself by either avoiding the people who are lackadaisical about it or keeping my mask on plus social distancing plus sanitizer

eagle2
07-07-2020, 05:59 PM
diabetic thus in a high risk group

According to his wife, he had no underlying conditions.

https://nypost.com/2020/07/06/nick-cordero-had-no-underlying-conditions-before-coronavirus/

From the above article:

The recent father, 41, had no underlying conditions, his wife Amanda Kloots has said, and his health struggles lasted long after he repeatedly tested negative for the virus.

The timeline of his decline is a tragic reminder that even young, healthy people with no pre-existing health issues — such as diabetes or obesity — can still die after catching the coronavirus.

rickdugan
07-07-2020, 06:20 PM
Yes eagle, we get it. One off freakishly bad luck deaths can occur with COVID. You can continue to dig up these outlier occurrences all day long, but it doesn't change the numbers or the odds. Those numbers are very clear given the CDC information above. People die each year from lightening strikes too, but it doesn't keep us from leaving the house every time it rains. ;)

eagle2
07-07-2020, 06:47 PM
I was correcting OmegaWest, who said he had diabetes.

Djoser
07-07-2020, 07:33 PM
I'm starting to wonder if I'm an asymptomatic carrier.

The only two guys I know who got this locally are in the other two stripclubs here.

I've been running the same exact risk levels as them since this started, was one of several people in my own club who had some flu-like crud in january, and we had more foreign girls back then. Including a couple girls from Italy.

moneybags
07-07-2020, 09:22 PM
I'm starting to wonder if I'm an asymptomatic carrier.

The only two guys I know who got this locally are in the other two stripclubs here.

I've been running the same exact risk levels as them since this started, was one of several people in my own club who had some flu-like crud in january, and we had more foreign girls back then. Including a couple girls from Italy.

Nothing would surprise me with this virus. It’s quite possible it hides out in tissue and reactives. That’s not what they think. I mean you “shouldn’t be contagious” but for a short amount of time you have the virus. No one knows enough to say anything conclusively.

I plan on donating blood to see if I have the antibodies. Highly doubt it, but I need to donate blood anyways. The Red Cross is doing free antibody test with donations-btw

miss.a.p1600
07-07-2020, 10:32 PM
I'm starting to wonder if I'm an asymptomatic carrier.

The only two guys I know who got this locally are in the other two stripclubs here.

I've been running the same exact risk levels as them since this started, was one of several people in my own club who had some flu-like crud in january, and we had more foreign girls back then. Including a couple girls from Italy.

The mayor of Atlanta just confirmed she has coronavirus....she said she has zero symptoms

I believe you can take tests when you believe you’ve been exposed. Also there’s the antibody test.

I’m too lazy to post my sources right now so you’ll have to websearch.

eagle2
07-08-2020, 08:54 AM
Dozens of hospitals in Florida have run out of ICU beds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/08/coronavirus-live-updates-us/

Eric Stoner
07-08-2020, 09:20 AM
Dozens of hospitals in Florida have run out of ICU beds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/08/coronavirus-live-updates-us/

Sigh. Your link says nothing about ICU beds in Florida. Besides, there are other reasons patients are put into ICU's besides just Covid.

On April 21, the 7-day rolling average deaths per day for patients positive for COVID was 2,225. Not all died from COVID but they had the virus. The latest number is 511 deaths per day. The daily death rate for nursing home patients over the last 10 years averaged out to about 1400 per day. Sweden's COVID death rate is now in the single digits per day.

The death rate for COVID patients under 70 is 0.04%. For those under 40 it is 0.005 %. Does anyone have the latest stats for those under 30 ? 21 and under ? I don't but I will bet it is lower than 0.005 % and for those without an underlying condition I will guess it is less than half for those under 40.

According to hospital administrators and heads of ICU's in Houston they have gone from about 100 hospitalized COVID patients to about 700 on a daily average. BUT those patients are younger and less sick than those they were seeing and treating in April and May. Other states are reporting similar stats.

One area of serious concern is the major spike in cases among seasonal workers. They tend to live in multi-generational homes in close proximity to each other.

rickdugan
07-08-2020, 09:43 AM
Yes some FL hospitals are running out of ICU beds. So we move them to hospitals that do have capacity and build out temporary capacity if necessary. We have been prepared for that here for months. Truth be told, those hospital ICUs tend to run at 80% occupancy during the best of times, so it doesn't take much to push them over.

Deaths continue to trend low and our medical system, as a whole, is not strained. As Eric mentioned, the people getting it now are trending very young and are recovering. People in places like NY and NJ are getting a lot more dramatic about FL than people in FL are, lol.

Adelina
07-08-2020, 09:44 AM
The Atlantic, May 21, has the story, headlined, “How could the CDC make that mistake?”

I’ll give you the key quotes, and then comment on the stark inference The Atlantic somehow failed to grasp.

“We’ve learned that the CDC is making, at best, a debilitating mistake: combining test results that diagnose current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus…The agency confirmed to The Atlantic on Wednesday that it is mixing the results of viral [PCR] and antibody tests, even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for different reasons.”

"Several states—including Pennsylvania, the site of one of the country’s largest outbreaks, as well as Texas, Georgia, and Vermont—are blending the data in the same way. Virginia likewise mixed viral and antibody test results until last week, but it reversed course and the governor apologized for the practice after it was covered by the Richmond Times-Dispatch and The Atlantic. Maine similarly separated its data on Wednesday; Vermont authorities claimed they didn’t even know they were doing this.”

"’You’ve got to be kidding me,’ Ashish Jha, the K. T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard and the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told us when we described what the CDC was doing. ‘How could the CDC make that mistake? This is a mess’.”

“The CDC stopped publishing anything resembling a complete database of daily [COVID] test results on February 29. When it resumed publishing test data last week [the middle of May]…”

First of all, the CDC’s basic mission is publishing disease statistics on an ongoing basis. Reporting partial data flies in the face of what they’re supposed to be all about.
But the big deal, of course, is combining results from two different tests—the PCR and the antibody—and placing them in one lump.

I’ve read the Atlantic article forwards, backwards, and sideways, and it appears the experts believe only PCR viral tests should be used to count the number of COVID cases.

So here is a takeaway I find nowhere in the Atlantic article: COMBINING THE TWO TESTS WILL VASTLY INFLATE THE NUMBER OF CASES.

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/07/02/huge-covid-case-counting-deception-at-the-cdc/

Adelina
07-08-2020, 09:55 AM
Someone on here was asking how Covid deaths are counted.

Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause.

The federal government is classifying the deaths of patients infected with the coronavirus as COVID-19 deaths, regardless of any underlying health issues that could have contributed to the loss of someone's life.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, said the federal government is continuing to count the suspected COVID-19 deaths, despite other nations doing the opposite.

"There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem," she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. "Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.

"The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that," she added.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/birx-says-government-is-classifying-all-deaths-of-patients-with-coronavirus-as-covid-19-deaths-regardless-of-cause

So here you go, from the mouth of Birx. And if you don't know yet, hospitals receive from the Federal government $13K per Covid death and $39K per person placed on a ventilator.

Eric Stoner
07-08-2020, 10:03 AM
Thank you Adelina but I posted about the mish moshing of the COVID mortality data WEEKS ago. No disrespect whatsoever but this is old news. Please see my posts - 24 ; 41 ;80; 83 and 96.

I agree with you about heart attacks and other organic causes of death but I doubt that accident or gunshot victims who have positive COVID tests are counted as having died from COVID. If they are then that is an outrage but it would be news to me.

kamiliam
07-08-2020, 10:42 AM
Cause of death is never perfect. This isn’t a new phenomenon with covid. Often it is at the medical professionals discretion. Take a look at your grandparents/parent’s death certificate and you may be surprised at the official cause of death. One way to look at it is that would that person have died without the presence of covid. Once again you personally can doubt their findings but they are making a medical determination. I agree that if car accident deaths were at a large scale being attributed to the pandemic that is a big problem just haven’t seen that happening. All this talk of freak incidents needs to be applied to both sides.

eagle2
07-08-2020, 11:33 AM
Sigh. Your link says nothing about ICU beds in Florida. Besides, there are other reasons patients are put into ICU's besides just Covid.


It looks like they changed the article since I posted it. Here's one saying 56 Florida hospitals are reported to have no intensive care unit (ICU) beds available.

https://www.newsweek.com/56-florida-icu-beds-are-full-dozens-more-over-90-percent-capacity-1516054

Eric Stoner
07-08-2020, 12:08 PM
Yes, but that is fixable. NYC and other cities proved you can expand ICU capacity very quickly.

Adelina
07-08-2020, 12:25 PM
Thank you Adelina but I posted about the mish moshing of the COVID mortality data WEEKS ago. No disrespect whatsoever but this is old news. Please see my posts - 24 ; 41 ;80; 83 and 96.

I agree with you about heart attacks and other organic causes of death but I doubt that accident or gunshot victims who have positive COVID tests are counted as having died from COVID. If they are then that is an outrage but it would be news to me.

Someone in this thread was asking for a link explaining Covid deaths count so I posted it. It's old news, I agree. But someone may not know yet.

eagle2
07-08-2020, 12:37 PM
Yes, but that is fixable. NYC and other cities proved you can expand ICU capacity very quickly.

Regardless of whether or not it's fixable, wouldn't it be better if all of these people didn't need to go into intensive care in the first place?

eagle2
07-08-2020, 12:46 PM
An increase in people dying at home suggests coronavirus deaths in Houston may be higher than reported

In Houston, one of the nation's fastest-growing coronavirus hot spots, more residents are dying before they can make it to a hospital. Medical examiner data shows that an increasing number of these deaths are the result of COVID-19.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/08/houston-coronavirus-deaths-number/

rickdugan
07-08-2020, 01:19 PM
Regardless of whether or not it's fixable, wouldn't it be better if all of these people didn't need to go into intensive care in the first place?

In an ideal world sure. But right now we live in a world with necessary trade offs if we want a functioning society (and economy and education system and...). If the death rates are not spiking in these places, then increased hospital utilization is an acceptable tradeoff and your Houston example was both speculative and not especially compelling given how many people were dying at home before COVID.

Adelina
07-08-2020, 02:25 PM
In an ideal world sure. But right now we live in a world with necessary trade offs if we want a functioning society (and economy and education system and...). If the death rates are not spiking in these places, then increased hospital utilization is an acceptable tradeoff and your Houston example was both speculative and not especially compelling given how many people were dying at home before COVID.
“We now have mortality data for the first few months of 2020 for many countries, and, as you might expect, there were steep increases associated with the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in each one.”

“Surprisingly, however, these increases did not begin before the lockdowns were imposed, but after. Moreover, in almost every case, they began immediately after. Often, mortality numbers were on a downward trend before suddenly reversing course after lockdowns were decreed.”

“This is an astonishing finding…”

"You will notice that only after each country (or city) was locked down did the increases begin. Moreover, they began immediately, and in nearly every case, precipitously.”

“All this leads us to the following questions, which we pose to all those who continue to defend the use of lockdowns as an effective means to prevent excess deaths.”

“Q: Why was there no significant increase in overall mortality, in any country we have good data for, before the start of lockdowns?”

“Q: Why does a precise and exact correlation exist between the start of lockdowns and significant rises in overall mortality?”

"Q: How is it, moreover, that this moment in time [i.e., the imposition of lockdowns] happened to fall immediately before that precipitous rise?”

“Q: If health authorities vastly underestimated the prevalence of the virus at the beginning of the pandemic, why did the virus nevertheless wait until lockdowns were imposed to suddenly start killing at levels which exceeded normal deaths?”

—To that last question, I would respond: No virus would wait. We’re not talking about a virus at all. We’re talking about the sudden effects of the lockdowns.

And those sudden death-effects would come crashing down, first, and immediately, on the most vulnerable people in these countries:

THE LOCKDOWNS FORCED THE PREMATURE DEATHS OF OLD PEOPLE.

PEOPLE WHO HAD BEEN SUFFERING FROM MULTIPLE HEALTH CONDITIONS FOR YEARS, WHO HAD BEEN TREATED WITH TOXIC MEDICAL DRUGS, WHOSE IMMUNE SYSTEMS WERE ALREADY SEVERELY COMPROMISED…

AND WHO ARE SUDDENLY TERRIFIED BY TWO MORE FACTORS—THE POSSIBILITY OF A COVID-19 DIAGNOSIS, AND ISOLATION FROM FRIENDS AND FAMILY. THESE TWO FACTORS PUSH THEM OVER THE EDGE AND THEY DIE.

Especially in nursing homes; but also in hospitals, and in their homes.

This is the true face of “COVID.”

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/07/01/murder-by-lockdown-details-from-a-dozen-countries/

Golden_Rule
07-08-2020, 04:51 PM
^ That's a lot of very dramatically written stories for sure. But all of those articles, replete with hyperbole, are spinning cherry picked stats that ignore important population spread and actual death count data.

Here are the simple, unvarnished hard numbers as reported by the CDC:

Number of deaths in the U.S.: 129,811
Number of deaths under 14 years old: 58
Number of death under 24 years old: 342

The numbers are what they are. Now yes every life is precious, but in a nation of 330 million people those under 24 death counts are stunningly low. We can't live being afraid of every remote possible problem or freak bad luck. Over the same period the flu killed a lot more young people than COVID did and we didn't shut schools down for that. Shit more kids died in car accidents this year than they have from COVID, yet we still drive them to school and activities.

So again rational people need to keep their heads, become informed and then use that information to make decisions that work best for their families and situations.

Yes, as long as you give the option for home schooling, because I have grandkids who are here after school until picked up by parents, and an infirmed wife who, if she catches COVID-19 is likely dead. I am not sending my grandkids into those petri dishes, coming back here and putting Mrs GR at that kind of risk, and my daughter-in-law needs us to help her out. So, what do you do about folks in our situation. Home schooling, with the kind of assistance it is getting now, has to be in the picture.

miss.a.p1600
07-08-2020, 05:07 PM
I will say I’m glad for the homeschool or remote learning option.

Doesn’t seem safe to have kids packed in like a club on Saturday night. Plus some kids might not want to wear the masks all day while others won’t mind wearing it and also most kids are not the best at hygiene so ....

I’m curious how the teachers will split their time between in person and remote students.

miss.a.p1600
07-08-2020, 05:08 PM
US hitting records again (not the good kind) over 60k new case within last 24 hrs https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/us-reports-record-single-day-spike-of-60000-new-coronavirus-cases.html

miss.a.p1600
07-08-2020, 06:28 PM
FDA Warnings about certain types of hand sanitizer https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/us/fda-hand-sanitizer-trnd/index.html

Adelina
07-09-2020, 07:16 AM
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coronavirus-cfr

US Covid-19 mortality is at 4.3%. The number remained flat (so far) since May although the number of positive cases increased. Considering that any death WITH Covid is a "Covid death", the real mortality % is probably much lower.

As one epidemiologist said: "You don't quarantine the healthy, you quarantine the sick". The country is now run by a committee called the coronavirus task force. A bloodless coup.

miss.a.p1600
07-09-2020, 07:26 AM
Protect yourself against likelihood of contracting/spreading coronavirus with face mask that have the proper material https://www.cnet.com/health/face-masks-these-are-the-best-and-worst-materials-for-protecting-against-coronavirus/#ftag=CAD-09-10aai5b

rickdugan
07-09-2020, 10:22 AM
Yes, as long as you give the option for home schooling, because I have grandkids who are here after school until picked up by parents, and an infirmed wife who, if she catches COVID-19 is likely dead. I am not sending my grandkids into those petri dishes, coming back here and putting Mrs GR at that kind of risk, and my daughter-in-law needs us to help her out. So, what do you do about folks in our situation. Home schooling, with the kind of assistance it is getting now, has to be in the picture.

I hear that GR. Our school system is offering this option for those who are not comfortable returning their kids to school in August, but the wildcard is how effective the distance learning version will be.

It was crap when our kids were forced to do it for the last quarter of the 2019-2020 school year, so really it was a lost quarter. Our kids got about 40 minutes of "face" time with their teachers each week and they relied largely upon Khan Academy and other third-party materials. If it is similarly bad going into 2020-2021, then the total loss in education time could be as bad as three quarters of an entire school year, which is a disastrous loss of educational advancement time that they will never get back.

Now maybe the Summer has provided some time to improve the model, but I doubt it. Most school systems cannot compel teachers to work over the Summer due to negotiated contract provisions with the teacher's unions, so I doubt that these educators have been hard at work for the last 6 weeks revamping curricula to more effectively teach in a remote learning model. For those kids who are held out of school for one reason or another let's hope that I am wrong.

Adelina
07-09-2020, 06:56 PM
Here are the up to date stats on hospitalization in Texas.

About 17% of the beds in Texas are currently used for COVID-19 and about 19.5% are still free. That leaves 37,017 beds used by other patients. So the number of beds filled by other patients is almost 4x the number of beds used by CV-19 patients.

In addition, the number of available beds is enough for the number of hospitalized with CV-19 to double from here if necessary.

Finally, there are 5224 ventilators available although about 80% on ventilators end up dying.

Adelina
07-09-2020, 07:03 PM
An interesting chart

eagle2
07-09-2020, 09:05 PM
“We now have mortality data for the first few months of 2020 for many countries, and, as you might expect, there were steep increases associated with the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in each one.”

“Surprisingly, however, these increases did not begin before the lockdowns were imposed, but after. Moreover, in almost every case, they began immediately after. Often, mortality numbers were on a downward trend before suddenly reversing course after lockdowns were decreed.”

“This is an astonishing finding…”

"You will notice that only after each country (or city) was locked down did the increases begin. Moreover, they began immediately, and in nearly every case, precipitously.”

“All this leads us to the following questions, which we pose to all those who continue to defend the use of lockdowns as an effective means to prevent excess deaths.”

“Q: Why was there no significant increase in overall mortality, in any country we have good data for, before the start of lockdowns?”

“Q: Why does a precise and exact correlation exist between the start of lockdowns and significant rises in overall mortality?”

"Q: How is it, moreover, that this moment in time [i.e., the imposition of lockdowns] happened to fall immediately before that precipitous rise?”

“Q: If health authorities vastly underestimated the prevalence of the virus at the beginning of the pandemic, why did the virus nevertheless wait until lockdowns were imposed to suddenly start killing at levels which exceeded normal deaths?”

—To that last question, I would respond: No virus would wait. We’re not talking about a virus at all. We’re talking about the sudden effects of the lockdowns.

And those sudden death-effects would come crashing down, first, and immediately, on the most vulnerable people in these countries:

THE LOCKDOWNS FORCED THE PREMATURE DEATHS OF OLD PEOPLE.

PEOPLE WHO HAD BEEN SUFFERING FROM MULTIPLE HEALTH CONDITIONS FOR YEARS, WHO HAD BEEN TREATED WITH TOXIC MEDICAL DRUGS, WHOSE IMMUNE SYSTEMS WERE ALREADY SEVERELY COMPROMISED…

AND WHO ARE SUDDENLY TERRIFIED BY TWO MORE FACTORS—THE POSSIBILITY OF A COVID-19 DIAGNOSIS, AND ISOLATION FROM FRIENDS AND FAMILY. THESE TWO FACTORS PUSH THEM OVER THE EDGE AND THEY DIE.

Especially in nursing homes; but also in hospitals, and in their homes.

This is the true face of “COVID.”

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/07/01/murder-by-lockdown-details-from-a-dozen-countries/

In most cases, people do not die right away from coronavirus. There is generally a lag time of several weeks, after becoming sick. States and countries that went into lockdown, did so when many people started getting sick, not when many people started dying. That is why there was an increase in death after initially going into lockdown. After going up after lock down, the number of deaths declined significantly. In New York, the number of deaths declined from over 800 a day to less than 50. Cities, states, and countries that locked down earliest had the fewest deaths. The ones that locked down latest, or that did not lock down at all, had the most deaths. Greece was one of the first countries in Europe to lock down, and so far has had 193 deaths. Sweden, whose population is approximately the same, has not locked down, and has had 5,500 deaths so far. San Francisco was one of the first, or the first major city to lock down, and has had 50 deaths so far. Sweden's decision not to go into lock down has resulted in thousands more people dying there than their neighbors did, who did lockdown. Despite choosing to keep their economy open, nothing was gained, as Sweden's economy fared little better than their neighbors.

From:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html



“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”

rickdugan
07-10-2020, 08:57 AM
^Eagle, Sweden's death rates were far below NY by any measure, despite the fact that it never shut down. The other fallacies in your logic are the assumptions that Sweden would not have fared much worse economically if it had locked down or that death rates would have been significantly better. You really shouldn't rely upon the NYT for critical analysis and most of their melodramatic pieces are about as well researched as those rags you routinely post on here like Puffpost. ;)

You're also dead wrong on your analysis of U.S. states. FL and TX locked down later, opened sooner and never really locked down like NY. NJ and CT to begin with, but on a per capita basis both states have fared very well in terms of death rates compared to the hyper lockdown locations. The key differentiating statistic was NOT lockdown timing, but rather how well each state did in protecting its nursing homes. The only reason that Sweden didn't kick NY's ass even more than it did is because they made poor early policy decisions to keep COVID positive elderly in nursing homes instead of isolating them, kinda' similar to what NY/NJ/CT did in sending them back when they were still sick.

Here is something else to consider: You realize that NY, NJ and CT are still effectively on lockdown, no? How do you think they will fare once they finally cut the crap and open their economies back up? As has become clear, this has not gone away and all that TX and FL did with their lockdowns was delay the inevitable.

I feel like this is getting circular now. I know I posted this in response to these points before...

eagle2
07-10-2020, 02:26 PM
^Eagle, Sweden's death rates were far below NY by any measure, despite the fact that it never shut down. The other fallacies in your logic are the assumptions that Sweden would not have fared much worse economically if it had locked down or that death rates would have been significantly better. You really shouldn't rely upon the NYT for critical analysis and most of their melodramatic pieces are about as well researched as those rags you routinely post on here like Puffpost. ;)

You can't refute what was said, so you attack the source. You refuse to acknowledge that the policies you advocate have failed dramatically. It's not just the NYT saying this.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/06/08/sweden-didnt-lock-down-but-economy-to-plunge-anyway.html

https://www.politico.eu/article/swedens-cant-escape-economic-hit-with-covid-19-light-touch/



You're also dead wrong on your analysis of U.S. states. FL and TX locked down later, opened sooner and never really locked down like NY. NJ and CT to begin with, but on a per capita basis both states have fared very well in terms of death rates compared to the hyper lockdown locations. The key differentiating statistic was NOT lockdown timing, but rather how well each state did in protecting its nursing homes. The only reason that Sweden didn't kick NY's ass even more than it did is because they made poor early policy decisions to keep COVID positive elderly in nursing homes instead of isolating them, kinda' similar to what NY/NJ/CT did in sending them back when they were still sick.

Now you're making up your own "facts". New York was hit much harder than FL and TX early on, which is why New York fared the worst. More international travelers go through NYC than probably any other area in the US. By the time the virus spread to FL and TX, measures were already being taken to prevent the spread. Right now, NY is faring much better than FL and TX. The only reason why FL and TX aren't doing as badly as NY did, is because many people are continuing to practice social distancing and are sheltering at home, even though those states have reopened. When NY was first hit, nobody was doing that.

Even if you exclude all nursing home deaths, the US has fared far worse than countries that locked down early and took strong measures from the start.



Here is something else to consider: You realize that NY, NJ and CT are still effectively on lockdown, no? How do you think they will fare once they finally cut the crap and open their economies back up? As has become clear, this has not gone away and all that TX and FL did with their lockdowns was delay the inevitable.

If they follow the advice of scientists as most European countries have done, instead of doing what you advocate, I'm sure they'll do much better. Here's a graph showing the difference.

https://i.imgur.com/56URSr0.png



I feel like this is getting circular now. I know I posted this in response to these points before...

It's because you continue to make the same false claims and ignore facts you don't like. At this point, it's not worth even trying to reason with you. You're always going to ignore facts and instead make condescending comments. You're now being placed on ignore.

Golden_Rule
07-10-2020, 06:51 PM
Protect yourself against likelihood of contracting/spreading coronavirus with face mask that have the proper material https://www.cnet.com/health/face-masks-these-are-the-best-and-worst-materials-for-protecting-against-coronavirus/#ftag=CAD-09-10aai5b

I must be getting old because I can't recall if I posted this already? {LOL}

I have to admit that I broke down and took my ass out when I was called by a friend who use to attend our parties and hit a few of the PA clubs that had opened. Face masks were prevalent, but not by the customers at barside once they were seated.

I behaved myself but it was great to get out with a friend and socialize some. I can see where, eventually, this sheltering in place biz could make one a tad bananas. 8)

Djoser
07-10-2020, 10:00 PM
You really shouldn't rely upon the NYT for critical analysis and most of their melodramatic pieces are about as well researched as those rags you routinely post on here like Puffpost. ;)

...I feel like this is getting circular now. I know I posted this in response to these points before...

What is this? I don't know what the hell Puffpost is but maybe it's some joke you are making.

I don't always agree with the NYT (like FOX is any better ;D) but no need to get snarky: '...those rags you routinely post'.

Maybe I missed something to provoke this but I won't have it.

If it's getting circular better to just drop it man.

lurkingtitties
07-11-2020, 05:29 AM
‘I thought this was a hoax’: Patient in their 30s dies after attending Covid party

http://news4sanantonio.com/news/local/i-thought-this-was-a-hoax-patient-in-their-30s-dies-after-attending-covid-party

But go on about how it’s only folks in nursing homes and we have the situation under control

P.S. Houston’s ICUs are full and ordering freezer trucks because the morgues are overwhelmed and Florida is not far behind with their exponential case count. Give it a week. Y’all deniers and conspiracy theorists are embarrassing.

lurkingtitties
07-11-2020, 05:43 AM
7000 Rona patients currently hospitalized in Florida

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-county-hospitalizations-ahca-20200710-5fpnosf2m5feteib5gtwb3lkz4-story.html