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rickdugan
10-26-2021, 10:44 AM
I spent years commuting to NYC every day for work and it was pure drudgery. Adding up the drive to the commuter train station, wait time on the platform, the train ride itself and then the walk from Grand Central to my office, it was a 2 hour commute each way. So 4 hours of commuting on top of a 10+ hour work day. It especially sucked in the winter and on rainy days. I did it of course for the money, which was better there than anywhere else.

But now that people have had a year and a half not dealing with that, many of them don't want to go back. Now if every financial services firm was rowing in the same direction then they might not have a choice, but some savvy firms are using continued remote work as a recruiting tool to poach valuable employees from their rivals. A similar phenomenon is happening in tech and other firms as well. IDK, but honestly I'm becoming increasingly skeptical about the genie ever being put completely back in the bottle.

eagle2
10-26-2021, 11:39 AM
Florida has had 3.64 million Covid cases ( i.e. that many people tested positive for Covid ). Some got sick. Some got very sick. Some had to be hospitalized. Many had no symptoms at all. As of yesterday Florida had 58,803 people die who tested positive for Covid. As with every other state some died from Covid and many died from something else with Covid being a contributing cause in SOME cases. Despite the categorical refusal of Fauci et. al. to really analyze the data a LOT of the deaths among children and young adults occurred with patients who were otherwise seriously ill. Many had cancer and were taking chemo. Others had compromised immune systems. A LOT were morbidly obese. Obesity is roughly the equivalent of old age as a co-factor for Covid mortality. Anyway Florida's rates are lower than those of Texas - 4.2 million cases and 70,593 deaths and California 4.87 million cases and 71,528 deaths. Florida's deaths per 100,000 is 273. It is 313 per 100,000 in N.J. and 289 in N.Y. If DeSantis is a "sociopath" then what do these numbers make Phil Murphy in N.J. and Cuomo in N.Y. ? Crypto sociopaths ? Unlike Murphy and Cuomo , DeSantis protected nursing home residents. He did not flood them with Covid positive patients the way Murphy and Cuomo did.

No, Florida had 58,803 people died from covid. You're just repeating a conspiracy theory.

Yes, Cuomo is a sociopath. Maybe Murphy is or isn't, but he was clearly negligent in sending seniors who had covid to nursing homes. DeSantis knows his actions are going to result in people dying, yet that doesn't stop him.

Eric Stoner
10-26-2021, 11:50 AM
No Eagle. And we have discussed this many times. If you die from ANYTHING and are Covid positive you are counted as a Covid death. There is no "conspiracy" to it. Before you go further off the edge I will say that most people who were Covid positive and died had Covid as their cause of death. But that's not all the deaths. There are reports that people who were in accidents or were shot were counted as Covid deaths. Not surprising or conspiratorial when you remember that Covid relief and assistance to cities , states and hospitals was based on their Covid numbers. The more Covid cases the more money they got. That is not me parroting some loony web-site. Doctors with background and experience in infectious diseases have said the same thing. People who actually work at the hospitals where the deaths occurred have done likewise. If you disagree with them and insist that a Covid is a Covid is a Covid regardless of anything else about the patient then you have a LOT of work to do to straighten out a LOT of health professionals.

And if someone thinks that I am trying to minimize the seriousness of Covid or pretend that it is not a deadly disease they are very much mistaken. I even support vaccine mandates absent a valid medical excuse.

eagle2
10-26-2021, 02:33 PM
https://www.aha.org/news/blog/2020-09-03-covid-19s-death-count-real-so-financial-strain-life-saving-hospitals

For the last several months, disturbing and unproven theories have gained traction – mostly on social media – about the death count for COVID-19.

Hospitals and health systems are eligible to receive higher payments for complex COVID-19-related treatment under the CARES Act – that much is true.

But there are several myths out there too. We need to set the record straight.

Hospitals do not receive extra funds when patients die from COVID-19. They are not over-reporting COVID-19 cases. And, they are not making money on treating COVID-19.

The truth is, hospitals and health systems are in their worst financial shape in decades due to the coronavirus. In some cases, the situation is truly dire. An AHA report estimates total losses for our nation’s hospitals and health systems of least $323 billion in 2020. There is no windfall here.

Further, hospitals and health systems adhere to strict coding guidelines, and use of the COVID-19 code for Medicare claims is reserved for confirmed cases. Coding inappropriately can result in criminal penalties and exclusion from the Medicare program altogether.

According to the CDC, there have been as many as 223,000 more deaths this year compared to a typical year. There have been 180,000 deaths due to COVID-19. There is no reasonable explanation for the increased deaths other than the coronavirus.

The professionals of America’s hospitals and health systems are focused on saving lives and treating illnesses – period. They shouldn’t have to waste precious time debunking theories that are offensive and untrue.

rickdugan
10-27-2021, 06:07 AM
No, Florida had 58,803 people died from covid. You're just repeating a conspiracy theory.

Yes, Cuomo is a sociopath. Maybe Murphy is or isn't, but he was clearly negligent in sending seniors who had covid to nursing homes. DeSantis knows his actions are going to result in people dying, yet that doesn't stop him.

As was clear from the state's that did lock down for long stretches, a good chunk of those people were going to die no matter what DeSantis did. Shoot if we're being candid, most of them would have been dead by now of natural causes or their other comorbidities anyway.

Florida has 22 million people, including many who rely upon Florida's service economy to thrive. This includes 2 million school children, a certain % of whom are low income. COVID was not the Governor's only worry, even if it yours. The long-term economic and psychological welfare of the larger population also merited consideration, as did the long-term educational consequences of shutting down schools for 2 million kids.

Again, agree or disagree, but until you stop believing that it was every Governor's job to try to prevent every infection possible at all costs, you're never going to grasp the concept of tradeoffs. There are emotional elements to either side of this argument. I'm guessing that you have a salary that was safe during COVID and are childless, so for you maybe COVID IS the primary concern. But for parents of school age kids and those with variable incomes relying upon sales of good and services there are a lot of competing priorities to consider, especially when COVID was not especially dangerous to most of them.

It's funny, but here in the land of milk and honey we're not even talking about COVID anymore. The economy is going gangbuster - no vacant boarded up retail locations around here. Our kids are where they are supposed to be educationally and socially. Birthday parties, sporting events, social gatherings, etc., all proceed as normal. And of course we don't have a large % of our population living as wards of the state, reliant upon never-ending transfer payments to survive. Even our strip clubs are thriving.

Life is good here in FL. Really good. :)

LoveyD
10-27-2021, 06:25 AM
Can't help but notice how many Florida plates are suddenly showing up in CA. Texas too. Must not be so great if people are escaping by the droves lol. Can't blame them. I'd run for safety too!

Eric Stoner
10-27-2021, 08:35 AM
Can't help but notice how many Florida plates are suddenly showing up in CA. Texas too. Must not be so great if people are escaping by the droves lol. Can't blame them. I'd run for safety too!

Oh please. Those are mostly former Cali residents who moved to Florida and went back to visit. Or pick up the cat they left behind. Last time I was in Florida I saw a LOT of plates from N.Y. , N.J. and California.

Eric Stoner
10-27-2021, 08:43 AM
Rick - I've been naughty and am just as guilty as some others but let's ALL try to avoid personalizing as much as possible.

Eric Stoner
10-27-2021, 09:25 AM
https://www.aha.org/news/blog/2020-09-03-covid-19s-death-count-real-so-financial-strain-life-saving-hospitals

For the last several months, disturbing and unproven theories have gained traction – mostly on social media – about the death count for COVID-19.

Hospitals and health systems are eligible to receive higher payments for complex COVID-19-related treatment under the CARES Act – that much is true.

But there are several myths out there too. We need to set the record straight.

Hospitals do not receive extra funds when patients die from COVID-19. They are not over-reporting COVID-19 cases. And, they are not making money on treating COVID-19.

The truth is, hospitals and health systems are in their worst financial shape in decades due to the coronavirus. In some cases, the situation is truly dire. An AHA report estimates total losses for our nation’s hospitals and health systems of least $323 billion in 2020. There is no windfall here.

Further, hospitals and health systems adhere to strict coding guidelines, and use of the COVID-19 code for Medicare claims is reserved for confirmed cases. Coding inappropriately can result in criminal penalties and exclusion from the Medicare program altogether.

According to the CDC, there have been as many as 223,000 more deaths this year compared to a typical year. There have been 180,000 deaths due to COVID-19. There is no reasonable explanation for the increased deaths other than the coronavirus.

The professionals of America’s hospitals and health systems are focused on saving lives and treating illnesses – period. They shouldn’t have to waste precious time debunking theories that are offensive and untrue.

Thanks for posting that Eagle. It caused me to dig into and review the Covid death numbers. In short , it's complicated.

The AAMC ( Association of American Medical Colleges ) did a review of Covid death reporting and the still existing confusion over "Dying from Covid:" vs. "Dying With Covid". First of all, very early in the pandemic here in the U.S. Covid deaths were most likely UNDER-reported and probably undercounted . Lack of testing , overwhelmed doctors and medical examiners and simple lack of knowledge probably caused Covid deaths to be undercounted.
In April 2020, Dr. Deborah Birx then Coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force said : " If someone dies WITH Covid -19 we are counting that as a Covid-19 death." Some state health officials effectively followed suit until the CDC issued clear guidelines and said that for it to be a "Covid death " and be counted as such "Covid had to play a role " in causing the death. There was still a LOT of leeway in the guidelines. Covid kills primarily by causing pneumonia, respiratory failure , systemic inflammation and blood clots. Those clots can turn into embolisms and cause acute respiratory failure, strokes and heart attacks. Many Covid victims had all sorts of co-morbidities with old age , dementia , Alzheimer's , diabetes , hypertension and heart disease leading the list. Add in cancer patients on or off chemo ; others taking immuno-suppressants or with otherwise compromised immune systems and they make up the overwhelming number of Covid deaths. According to TREATING doctors surveyed by the AAMC , Covid is an accelerant in mortality for most of those patients i.e. they would have died anyway , sooner or later , but departed much faster thanks to Covid.In other words these were patients expected to die anyway within 1 to 12 months. I have seen estimates ranging from 10% to 30% of all Covid deaths.

As for the initial undercount, the CDC looked at overall death numbers for 2018 and 2019 and compared them to 2020 and the first nine months of 2021. There was a rough increase of about 300,000 deaths. Even without correcting for population increase the CDC decided that almost all of those deaths were from Covid. They did NOT count the increased suicides and overdoses attributed to depression and increased drug use caused by the shutdowns AFAIK. If anyone knows different please chime in. I said at the beginning of this post : " It's complicated".

HOSPITAL death certificates are usually filled out by the treating doctor. Hospitals and doctors were instructed by the CDC to "use your best clinical judgement " in listing a cause of death if the decedent was Covid positive. If Covid is listed as a contributing factor the CDC counts it as a Covid related death. The CDC numbers do NOT differentiate between " Covid caused deaths " and deaths where Covid just "contributed". The CDC numbers are based on what the death certificates say. Do TREATING doctors really fill out the death certificates ? Generally NO. Certainly NOT at the height of the pandemic. Usually it's a 4th year medical student ,an intern or 1st year resident and the TREATING doctor is supposed to read it , make any corrections and sign it. I have gotten that from EVERY doctor I have asked. ( When my own mother passed away ; at home ; on a Sunday it was a LOT of fun trying to get a doctor to sign the damn death certificate so I could get her remains into the funeral home. So I know about this stuff FIRST Hand. Yes, I got it done but it was a mega hassle. )
Without cooking the books or doing anything wrong or dishonest per se it is both possible and in their interest for hospitals to boost their Covid numbers. It is true as Eagle's link points out that the incentive is in TREATING Covid patients and not necessarily in having Covid patients die in the hospital.

The bottom line is that it probably does not matter too much if someone died "with Covid" or "from Covid", While there were a few extreme cases early on where anyone who died while being Covid positive was counted as a Covid death there was also undercounting at the same time. After the CDC clarified its guidelines it is now highly likely that for anyone who died "with Covid " that it at least contributed to their death. Only 6% of death certificates list Covid as the ONLY cause of death. 60% of Covid death certificates listed at least one co-morbidity; 40% listed two or more. How much Covid contributed to the death is where the variations come in and where the gray areas can be found. It's complicated.

LoveyD
10-27-2021, 11:19 AM
I get my booster tomorrow! Yay!

rickdugan
10-27-2021, 02:52 PM
Rick - I've been naughty and am just as guilty as some others but let's ALL try to avoid personalizing as much as possible.

Eric, no personal attack intended with that post. There's nothing wrong with having a stable salary or not having kids. The point was merely to highlight that perspective matters. Someone who doesn't need to interact with others to make a living or worry about his/her kids' educational and social development is far more likely to support onerous shutdowns and other mandates than one who has to face more serious consequences when these actions occur. DeSantis is the governor of all 22 million people, including 2 million school aged children, not the governor solely to retirees and others who don't have to worry about schools and variable income.

eagle2
10-27-2021, 06:00 PM
I get my booster tomorrow! Yay!

I got mine on Friday!

Bahuba
10-28-2021, 10:57 AM
I think NYC will pick up again. The city has gone through much worse.

eagle2
10-30-2021, 09:40 PM
Khloe Kardashian and Daughter True Test Positive for COVID-19

https://www.etonline.com/khloe-kardashian-and-daughter-true-test-positive-for-covid-19-174446

She's been vaccinated. Hopefully this will be a mild case.

Eric Stoner
11-01-2021, 10:59 AM
A LOT of vaccinated people are testing positive for Covid. Jen Psaki ; Jon Bon Jovi and thousands of others. The thing is almost none of them are getting seriously sick.

eagle2
11-03-2021, 11:39 AM
I used to share your misconception that getting vaccinated for Covid protected both the person vaccinated and those around her or him. NOT according to the latest research just published on Friday in The Lancet. The authors said that Covid-19 vaccines have minimal impact on preventing transmission of the Delta strain which now accounts for about 99% of new U.S. cases. As I have posted , vaccination protects the recipient from getting seriously ill; from having to be hospitalized. The protection rate is over 90%. Therefore choosing not to get vaccinated is endangering your own life. NOT those around you. Most vaccines DO protect against getting infected and being infectious. Not Covid vaccines vis a vis the Delta variant. The Lancet findings showed that fully vaccinated people who became infected with Covid infected members of their households at a 25% rate. Unvaccinated people infected household members at a 23% rate. Those vaccinated who became infected had just as much viral load in their upper respiratory systems making them just as contagious as the unvaccinated. According to co-author Ajit Lalvani : "Our findings show that vaccination alone is not enough to prevent people from being infected with the Delta variant and spreading it." The British researchers also found that vaccinated people were 25% likely to be infected with Covid. The unvaccinated were 38% likely to be infected. This directly conflicts with what we have been told by the CDC who have said that the vaccinated were much less likely to be infected. If you do not like their findings please write to the Lancet and make sure to list all of your medical and scientific qualifications to question their research.

If all we look at are raw Covid numbers then Florida's performance does not look very good. But NYC had a higher death rate than Florida - 405 per 100,000 vs. 229 per 100,000. At least according to the CDC. For the First Quarter of 2021 , Florida's 3 month death rate was 102.3 per 100,000. For the same time period California's was 245; N.Y.'s 155 ; N.J.'s 149 ; Pa.'s 143 ; Maryland 126 ; Nevada 193 and Oklahoma 237. ALL had stricter and more draconian shutdowns and mask requirements than Florida. Today, the death rate for the last Quarter ( through September ) was 277. Still LOWER than N.Y. , Arizona , Louisiana , New Jersey , Alabama and Mississippi. California's was 182.

Overall Florida's death rate ranks 10th among all 50 states. BUT their age adjusted mortality rate is 24th. That matters because Florida has a LOT of elderly people ( defined by the CDC as over 65 ) and because very few otherwise healthy children get sick from Covid and very , very few die from it. All told Florida had 3.6 million people who tested positive for Covid with 56,667 deaths. The overall case mortality was 1.6%.

It is true that Florida , along with many other states and countries had a seasonal surge in Covid cases. I was there twice in April and twice more in May . Businesses were open . Masks were not required except in places like Airports and hotel lobbies and other indoor areas EXCEPT the gym , bars and restaurant. So why did they bother ? Why didn't Florida have a surge of cases THEN ? Fewer folks were vaccinated then than now.

I think you are deliberately misunderstanding what those who had recovered from Covid are saying. I am sure they didn't want to get Covid. But they did. And every study so far says that their immune systems have more and more effective anti-bodies against Cvoid than those who were vaccinated. Their anti-bodies definitely have a longer lasting protective effect than those generated by the vaccine. I refuse to go in circles with you any further. The results of such studies were posted here and can easily be found with a search. If you don't like those studies please write to the authors and the institutions that employ them. In extreme cases perhaps you can get their employers to revoke their passes to the Faculty Lounge.

Likewise masks have been shown to be mostly, not entirely, but mostly ineffective according to those who actually studied the issue.

You don't seem to be able to understand this basic facts:

Covid vaccines DO prevent infections. They're not 100% effective, so there are cases of vaccinated people catching the virus. Vaccinated people who catch the virus can spread it, but they're much less likely to catch the virus in the first place. Even according to the results you posted, where 25% of vaccinated people were infected and 38% of unvaccinated people were infected, it shows being vaccinated reduces infections. 25% is less than 38%.

For unvaccinated people who have already had the covid, the choice is not between natural immunity from having had the virus or getting vaccinated. It's either only having natural immunity or having natural immunity AND getting vaccinated. Having both is more effective than just having natural immunity. You seem to think, based on your posts, that if you've had covid already, and get vaccinated, you will somehow lose your immunity from having had the virus already. That's not the case. I also read of a recent study that getting vaccinated is 5 times more effective than having had the virus and not being vaccinated. I've also read of people who have had covid, getting it a second time and dying from it. There is no question these people would have been better off if they had gotten vaccinated, even though they had the virus already. I don't understand why you keep saying that natural immunities are more effective than vaccines, when getting vaccinated will not result in losing any natural immunities if you've had the virus before.

Instead of objectively looking at the facts, you try to get the facts to fit your views. You select one time period that fits your narrative and ignore what doesn't. Again, Florida has the 8th highest death rate from covid. Mississippi, who follows the policies you advocate, had the highest death rate in the world at one point. NY's overall death rate is very high because NY did not go into lockdown right away when they were hit with covid. Washington did, and their death rate is less than one half of Florida's.

Masks do greatly reduce the spread of covid. Multiple studies have shown that counties with mask mandates saw covid cases decline and counties that didn't saw covid cases increase over the same time period. In AZ, school districts without mask mandates had 3 1/2 times as many covid surges as school districts that had them.

https://tucson.com/news/local/cdc-study-of-schools-in-pima-maricopa-counties-shows-mask-mandates-reduce-covid-outbreaks/article_fcd34e40-1ce1-11ec-b1c6-cfb59c78b692.html

Asian countries where most people wear masks had much lower death rates than the US. Japan's death rate was approximately 1/15 of America's. In Singapore, where not wearing a mask in public can get you thrown in jail, their death rate is approximately 1/30 of America's. Your judge policies by how much you like them, rather than how effective they are.

rickdugan
11-03-2021, 12:48 PM
Instead of objectively looking at the facts, you try to get the facts to fit your views. You select one time period that fits your narrative and ignore what doesn't. Again, Florida has the 8th highest death rate. Mississippi, who follows the policies you advocate, had the highest death rate in the world at one point. NY's overall death rate is very high because NY did not go into lockdown right away when they were hit with covid. Washington did, and their death rate is less than one half of Florida's.

Again regarding the single issue fixation, I respond with the following (copy and pasted yet again)...

As was clear from the states that did lock down for long stretches, a good chunk of those people were going to die no matter what DeSantis did. Shoot if we're being candid, most of them would have been dead by now of natural causes or their other comorbidities anyway. [One new addition] You do realize that Florida has the oldest population of any large state (over 10mm people) in the country, right?

Florida has 22 million people, including many who rely upon Florida's service economy to thrive. This includes 2 million school children, a certain % of whom are low income. COVID was not the Governor's only worry, even if it yours. The long-term economic and psychological welfare of the larger population also merited consideration, as did the long-term educational consequences of shutting down schools for 2 million kids.

Again, agree or disagree, but until you stop believing that it was every Governor's job to try to prevent every infection possible at all costs, you're never going to grasp the concept of tradeoffs. There are emotional elements to either side of this argument. I'm guessing that you have a salary that was safe during COVID and are childless, so for you maybe COVID IS the primary concern. But for parents of school age kids and those with variable incomes relying upon sales of good and services there are a lot of competing priorities to consider, especially when COVID was not especially dangerous to most of them.

It's funny, but here in the land of milk and honey we're not even talking about COVID anymore. The economy is going gangbuster - no vacant boarded up retail locations around here. Our kids are where they are supposed to be educationally and socially. Birthday parties, sporting events, social gatherings, etc., all proceed as normal. And of course we don't have a large % of our population living as wards of the state, reliant upon never-ending transfer payments to survive. Even our strip clubs are thriving.

eagle2
11-03-2021, 04:24 PM
Again regarding the single issue fixation, I respond with the following (copy and pasted yet again)...

As was clear from the states that did lock down for long stretches, a good chunk of those people were going to die no matter what DeSantis did. Shoot if we're being candid, most of them would have been dead by now of natural causes or their other comorbidities anyway. [One new addition] You do realize that Florida has the oldest population of any large state (over 10mm people) in the country, right?


You don't know that. You're just trying to come up with excuses for not taking the necessary measures to protect these people. As of 2007, the avg. life expectancy of a 65 year old American was 18.6 years, and for a 75 year old, 11.7 years.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2010/022.pdf

That means, on average, a 65 year old dying from covid would lose approximately 18.6 years of life, and a 75 year old would lose 11.7 years.

Maine's percentage of people over 65 is approximately the same as Florida's. It's slightly higher.

https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/

Florida's covid death rate is more than 3 times higher than Maine's. If Florida did as well as Maine in preventing covid deaths, 40,000 deaths would have been prevented.



Florida has 22 million people, including many who rely upon Florida's service economy to thrive. This includes 2 million school children, a certain % of whom are low income. COVID was not the Governor's only worry, even if it yours. The long-term economic and psychological welfare of the larger population also merited consideration, as did the long-term educational consequences of shutting down schools for 2 million kids.


Even without shutting down schools there is a lot that can be done to reduce the likelihood of spreading the disease. Requiring masks and vaccinations for children old enough, greatly reduces the likelihood of outbreaks. My friend's 14 year old daughter's school requires students to get vaccinated if they want to attend class in person. Many colleges and universities are requiring vaccinations. Liberty University, one of the few that didn't, saw 1,200 cases in just 3 weeks.

https://www.wfxrtv.com/news/health/coronavirus/liberty-university-reports-more-than-1200-covid-19-cases-in-3-weeks-active-case-quarantine-numbers-now-significantly-lower/

In AZ, school districts that did not have mask mandates had 3 1/2 times as many outbreaks as schools that did.

https://tucson.com/news/local/cdc-study-of-schools-in-pima-maricopa-counties-shows-mask-mandates-reduce-covid-outbreaks/article_fcd34e40-1ce1-11ec-b1c6-cfb59c78b692.html

While you seem concerned about any long term economic and psychological effects of covid restrictions, you seem to have no concern about long term health, economic, and psychological effects on younger people who catch covid. You're taking this simplistic look that no matter how many people catch covid, the only thing that matters is whether they live or die, and if they're old, it's not a major concern if they do die. You ignore the massive increase in hospitalizations caused by covid, and the long term health effects of people who had a serious case of covid, and survived.



Again, agree or disagree, but until you stop believing that it was every Governor's job to try to prevent every infection possible at all costs, you're never going to grasp the concept of tradeoffs. There are emotional elements to either side of this argument. I'm guessing that you have a salary that was safe during COVID and are childless, so for you maybe COVID IS the primary concern. But for parents of school age kids and those with variable incomes relying upon sales of good and services there are a lot of competing priorities to consider, especially when COVID was not especially dangerous to most of them.

It's funny, but here in the land of milk and honey we're not even talking about COVID anymore. The economy is going gangbuster - no vacant boarded up retail locations around here. Our kids are where they are supposed to be educationally and socially. Birthday parties, sporting events, social gatherings, etc., all proceed as normal. And of course we don't have a large % of our population living as wards of the state, reliant upon never-ending transfer payments to survive. Even our strip clubs are thriving.

Maybe you and the people who you associate with, who probably share your views, aren't talking about covid, but I assure you, the families of the 20,000 people who died over the past 3 or 4 months in Florida are still talking about it and are still feeling the effects. So are the people suffering long-term health effects from covid.

The top priority of the government is to protect the lives of its citizens. Maine's governor was able to protect the citizens in her state, and still managed to keep the state unemployment rate lower than Florida's.

rickdugan
11-04-2021, 06:13 AM
You don't know that. You're just trying to come up with excuses for not taking the necessary measures to protect these people. As of 2007, the avg. life expectancy of a 65 year old American was 18.6 years, and for a 75 year old, 11.7 years.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2010/022.pdf

That means, on average, a 65 year old dying from covid would lose approximately 18.6 years of life, and a 75 year old would lose 11.7 years.

Maine's percentage of people over 65 is approximately the same as Florida's. It's slightly higher.

https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/

Florida's covid death rate is more than 3 times higher than Maine's. If Florida did as well as Maine in preventing covid deaths, 40,000 deaths would have been prevented.

Even without shutting down schools there is a lot that can be done to reduce the likelihood of spreading the disease. Requiring masks and vaccinations for children old enough, greatly reduces the likelihood of outbreaks. My friend's 14 year old daughter's school requires students to get vaccinated if they want to attend class in person. Many colleges and universities are requiring vaccinations. Liberty University, one of the few that didn't, saw 1,200 cases in just 3 weeks.

https://www.wfxrtv.com/news/health/coronavirus/liberty-university-reports-more-than-1200-covid-19-cases-in-3-weeks-active-case-quarantine-numbers-now-significantly-lower/

In AZ, school districts that did not have mask mandates had 3 1/2 times as many outbreaks as schools that did.

https://tucson.com/news/local/cdc-study-of-schools-in-pima-maricopa-counties-shows-mask-mandates-reduce-covid-outbreaks/article_fcd34e40-1ce1-11ec-b1c6-cfb59c78b692.html

While you seem concerned about any long term economic and psychological effects of covid restrictions, you seem to have no concern about long term health, economic, and psychological effects on younger people who catch covid. You're taking this simplistic look that no matter how many people catch covid, the only thing that matters is whether they live or die, and if they're old, it's not a major concern if they do die. You ignore the massive increase in hospitalizations caused by covid, and the long term health effects of people who had a serious case of covid, and survived.

Maybe you and the people who you associate with, who probably share your views, aren't talking about covid, but I assure you, the families of the 20,000 people who died over the past 3 or 4 months in Florida are still talking about it and are still feeling the effects. So are the people suffering long-term health effects from covid.

The top priority of the government is to protect the lives of its citizens. Maine's governor was able to protect the citizens in her state, and still managed to keep the state unemployment rate lower than Florida's.

Eagle, we have no idea how many fewer people would have died had Desantis locked down and imposed onerous mandates. We've done this little dance before, where you cherry pick some rural state or small isolated country with low population density and then try to say that a state with several urban centers and heavy tourist traffic should have fared just as well. It was goofy then and is no less goofy now. Infection rates and resulting deaths were driven by a variety of factors. Lots of people died in the lockdown states too. MA, NY and NJ - each also with high population density - had even higher death rates.

So again we have no idea how much onerous lockdowns and mandates would have helped. None. But we do know the devastation that they caused. NYC is a shell of itself and may never recover. Millions of low income kids in several blue states lost a full year of education that they'll never get back. Countless businesses were wiped out for good, resulting in boarded up storefronts. The pediatric mental mental health systems in the blue states continue to be strained. I could go on.

As far as your points about vaccine and mask mandates for school kids, hogwash. Every reliable piece of evidence makes it clear that they are at much lower risk of infection and have mild symptoms when they do catch it. The only reason to do that stuff to them is to make paranoid and skittish older adults feel more safe. If the blue states want to ease the burdens they are still experiencing on their pediatric mental health systems, they could start by returning kids to normalcy rather than continuing to screw with them to make old adults feel better.

For every action there is a reaction. When you make kids cover their faces all day, they lose valuable interactive stimulus that they need as part of their emotional development. When you make them get shots that they don't need, you expose them to potential side effects for something that poses essentially zero risk to them in the first place.

Eric Stoner
11-04-2021, 09:34 AM
You don't seem to be able to understand this basic facts:

Covid vaccines DO prevent infections. They're not 100% effective, so there are cases of vaccinated people catching the virus. Vaccinated people who catch the virus can spread it, but they're much less likely to catch the virus in the first place. Even according to the results you posted, where 25% of vaccinated people were infected and 38% of unvaccinated people were infected, it shows being vaccinated reduces infections. 25% is less than 38%.

For unvaccinated people who have already had the covid, the choice is not between natural immunity from having had the virus or getting vaccinated. It's either only having natural immunity or having natural immunity AND getting vaccinated. Having both is more effective than just having natural immunity. You seem to think, based on your posts, that if you've had covid already, and get vaccinated, you will somehow lose your immunity from having had the virus already. That's not the case. I also read of a recent study that getting vaccinated is 5 times more effective than having had the virus and not being vaccinated. I've also read of people who have had covid, getting it a second time and dying from it. There is no question these people would have been better off if they had gotten vaccinated, even though they had the virus already. I don't understand why you keep saying that natural immunities are more effective than vaccines, when getting vaccinated will not result in losing any natural immunities if you've had the virus before.

Instead of objectively looking at the facts, you try to get the facts to fit your views. You select one time period that fits your narrative and ignore what doesn't. Again, Florida has the 8th highest death rate from covid. Mississippi, who follows the policies you advocate, had the highest death rate in the world at one point. NY's overall death rate is very high because NY did not go into lockdown right away when they were hit with covid. Washington did, and their death rate is less than one half of Florida's.

Masks do greatly reduce the spread of covid. Multiple studies have shown that counties with mask mandates saw covid cases decline and counties that didn't saw covid cases increase over the same time period. In AZ, school districts without mask mandates had 3 1/2 times as many covid surges as school districts that had them.

https://tucson.com/news/local/cdc-study-of-schools-in-pima-maricopa-counties-shows-mask-mandates-reduce-covid-outbreaks/article_fcd34e40-1ce1-11ec-b1c6-cfb59c78b692.html

Asian countries where most people wear masks had much lower death rates than the US. Japan's death rate was approximately 1/15 of America's. In Singapore, where not wearing a mask in public can get you thrown in jail, their death rate is approximately 1/30 of America's. Your judge policies by how much you like them, rather than how effective they are.

Part of this is my fault for getting bored with posting the same thing over and over and not taking the time to post adequately . I will try for greater clarity and specificity in THIS response.

1. I advocate getting vaccinated. Even for people who have already had Covid, Even for the young and healthy. I am NOT sure about vaccinating young children ( age 5 to 11 ) and for now I think it is best to leave it up to their parents.

2. According to the CDC immunity from vaccines is more consistent than from being previously infected. Both types of resistance last at least 6 months. RESISTANCE ( as I will explain further on ) is actually a more accurate term than IMMUNITY.

3. The latest Israeli study helps to explain what I have been trying to convey. It studied three groups of people : Those vaccinated at least 6 months earlier ; Those who were infected at least 6 months earlier and Those who were infected and then got at least one dose of the Pfizer Covid vaccine. Those who had never been infected and were vaccinated in January and February, 2021 were up to 13 times MORE likely to contract Covid than those who were previously infected. The unvaccinated group was twice as likely to be infected again compared to those who got at least one Covid vaccination. This study was conducted while the DELTA variant ( a much more contagious variant ) was dominant. Both those vaccinated and those previously infected have been infected with the Delta variant. The findings suggest that natural resistance provides longer and stronger protection against infection , symptomatic disease and hospitalization. It also showed that those previously infected had additional resistance from one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

4. The Israeli findings track a previous study published in NATURE in July which found that the most Covid resistance was created by a previous infection and at least one dose of vaccine.

5. I NEVER said , intimated or implied that vaccination lowered resistance nor that previously infected people are adequately protected nor that they should not get vaccinated. I made the mistake of picking up the cudgels for those who think that the antibodies produced by their previous exposure to Covid gave them adequate protection. While it seems reasonable to think so the latest research shows pretty clearly that they are WRONG and would benefit from being vaccinated.

6. Nobody is "immune" to Covid and with the vaccines available will never be immune. Huh ? What ? "Oh Eric how can you possibly say that ? "
I will explain it as it was explained to me by an M.D. PhD. published expert in Infectious Diseases. The vaccines that we have do NOT prevent exposure to the Covid virus. They do not prevent the virus from getting into vaccinated bodies. The vaccines act by making the body produce antibodies to fight the infection. Some of the science is well beyond my Pay Grade but at least two of the vaccines use spiked proteins that promote antibody production sufficient to let the body produce effective antibodies to fight off and defeat an infection. Thus they are RESISTANT. The Covid vaccines work differently than most vaccines for things like mumps, measles , polio and other viral illnesses. Most flu shots use a weakened and harmless version of the flu virus. It is part of the reason why so many people have at least some reaction to getting vaccinated. Usually more with the second shot than the first. In my case I had no reaction ( none, zip, zero , nada ) to the first shot. A month later I got my second and the following day I had a slight headache , fatigue and a little brain fog or fuzziness for a few hours. And that was it. Others I know ended up with as much as three days of flu like symptoms after their second shot. The way it was explained to me by the Infectious Disease expert was : The First shot helps your body erect defenses and places it "On Alert " so that when you get the Second shot your body is alert and ready to fight off any infection. He also told me that we will almost certainly need to get annual Covid booster shots especially given the ability of the virus to mutate.

7. Covid deaths are clustered among the elderly. Their immune systems are weaker and they have more co-morbidities. Likewise those who are already sick with a serious illness ranging to the point of being terminally ill are the most vulnerable and will or would have died anyway. That does NOT mean that every elderly victim of Covid was on her " last legs anyway " ( as Bill O'Reilly foolishly said ). They can and should be protected as much as possible. Florida's Covid deaths are clustered among the elderly , the otherwise infirm and the poor with inadequate access to quality medical care. Vaccinated people get less sick less often. The most affected are the least injected and the least protected.
Like many other states, Florida has a serious lag in Black and Hispanic vaccinations. 17% of Floridians are Black. Overall they are less healthy and have less access to quality health care than Whites. Here is an illustrative timeline :
5/12/21 - 7% of 9 million Florida vaccinations went to Blacks according to Politico
8/12/21 - 16% of all Florida Covid deaths were Black. 14% of all Covid cases were Black patients. Only 8% of 12 million vaccinated were Black according to the Miami Herald.
9/13/21 - Less than a third ( about 30% ) of Florida's Blacks were vaccinated according to WUSF
10/15/21 - Blacks were half as likely as Whites to be vaccinated according to Bloomberg
11/2/21 - According to the CDC there has been an uptick in vaccinations among both Blacks and Hispanics but there is still a serious lag compared to Whites.

Btw, the obesity rate in Florida is 27%. The same as it is in N.J. and N.Y. Florida's age adjusted death rate from or with Covid is LOWER than both of those states.

8. Another mea culpa for not posting clearly enough about mask usage. They work IF they are the N-95 properly worn or a high grade medical mask properly worn WITH social distancing. Most fabric masks are effectively useless. They merely constitute part of the "costume" needed to get into an airport or on a plane, train or bus. The recent so called "Gold Standard " Bangladesh study is anything but. It has NOT been peer reviewed and there was NO Control Group. Supposedly everybody wore the same grade medical mask and there was a drop in Covid infections. This illustrates the difference between STUDIES ( scientific, peer reviewed with control groups ) and OBSERVATIONS. To date , afaik there has NOT been a single scientific , peer reviewed study with a control group that proves that masks prevent infection. EAGLE ! Please relax and keep reading. That does NOT mean that there is no evidence that masks work and that wearing them is not a good idea. Especially in enclosed areas with poor air circulation. The N-95 has been shown In The Controlled Setting of a LAB to protect both the wearer and those around her or him by almost eliminating the "respiratory cloud". Medical grade masks offer limited protection to the wearer BUT they do substantially reduce the range of respiratory droplets, So requiring them in some settings IS a good idea. A hot issue that has no concrete answer YET is whether it is a good idea to require them to be worn by schoolchildren. To date, there is NO SCIENTIFIC Peer Reviewed STUDY that PROVES that masks work AFAIK. But , But , BUT there ARE statistical analyses that ARE evidence that mask usage reduced infection rates. What we do not know for sure is whether it was also the enforced social distancing , frequent hand washing and sanitizing that were also responsible. I DO NOT have a problem with requiring masks in certain settings. I DO think it is ridiculous to copy Rhinebeck, N.Y. and require that they be worn OUTDOORS .

rickdugan
11-04-2021, 09:53 AM
At some point we are going to have to finally accept the fact that COVID will be here forever, but that it will likely be less impactful as a high % of the population maintains some form of resistance. Every year the elderly, others at risk and those who are simply cautious will get a COVID shot and everyone else will move on with their lives. Basically like we now do for the flu. There will soon enough be an anti-viral medication for COVID much like Tamiflu for those who get infected.

Some states have already adopted this posture. Here in FL, our events are in full swing again, our kids are fully participating in group events and activities and life has returned to normal. No masks almost anywhere (except medical offices), no vaccine mandates, etc. Shoot my kids are even doing packed birthday parties and sleepovers again. For states still in a defensive posture, I guess they'll decide for themselves how long they want to make kids live in a mode of never-ending paranoia and deal with the fallout from doing so.

Life moves on.

sarah101
11-04-2021, 11:48 AM
Totally agree, commuting sucks

eagle2
11-04-2021, 01:03 PM
Eagle, we have no idea how many fewer people would have died had Desantis locked down and imposed onerous mandates. We've done this little dance before, where you cherry pick some rural state or small isolated country with low population density and then try to say that a state with several urban centers and heavy tourist traffic should have fared just as well. It was goofy then and is no less goofy now. Infection rates and resulting deaths were driven by a variety of factors. Lots of people died in the lockdown states too. MA, NY and NJ - each also with high population density - had even higher death rates.


Fuck you with your condescending comments. You're completely ignorant of the facts and science as well. MA, NY, and NJ have high death rates because they didn't lock down when they should have. If you exclude the first two or three months of the pandemic, where they waited too long to lock down, their death rates are far, far lower than Florida's, where your sociopath governor showed complete disregard for the science as well as for the lives of the residents of his state. What you advocate has been proven to be a disaster again and again and again, yet you continue to keep repeating the same nonsensical, anti-science garbage over and over and over again. It's a waste of time to even try to have a discussion with you. You're now on ignore. Your only reason for being here is to harass and troll other members of the forum.

rickdugan
11-04-2021, 02:06 PM
Fuck you with your condescending comments. You're completely ignorant of the facts and science as well. MA, NY, and NJ have high death rates because they didn't lock down when they should have. If you exclude the first two or three months of the pandemic, where they waited too long to lock down, their death rates are far, far lower than Florida's, where your sociopath governor showed complete disregard for the science as well as for the lives of the residents of his state. What you advocate has been proven to be a disaster again and again and again, yet you continue to keep repeating the same nonsensical, anti-science garbage over and over and over again. It's a waste of time to even try to have a discussion with you. You're now on ignore. Your only reason for being here is to harass and troll other members of the forum.

For starters, every state that locked down did so within a couple of weeks of each other, so I'm not sure how much I'm buying this tunnel vision notion that it was all about the lockdowns. Now did lockdowns help? No doubt, but we really don't know how much. If your theory was true that it was only about lockdowns, then places like South Dakota, North Dakota and Wyoming should be at the very top of the death rate list because they didn't really lock down at all, but they aren't. Wisconsin was one of the states that ended lockdowns early, so if your theory was correct, they should be at the top of the death rate list too but nope - 13th lowest in fact.

It is you who is so emotionally invested in your own opinion that, in addition to melting down when someone disagrees with your premise, you are ignoring other scientific variables by not acknowledging the well document role of population clusters in spread and mortality rates. Now the reality is that the death rates were most likely influenced by some combination of factors, lockdown timeframes and population clusters being two big ones but not the only ones.

But by pounding the lockdown drum as if it was the only variable because it conveniently supports your emotionally preferred narrative, IMHO you are missing a much broader picture. Just like you don't want to hear about tradeoffs because you are dug in on the notion that nothing was more important than stopping every single infection. Well sorry eagle, but not everyone agrees with you and it's certainly not trolling to say so. If that makes you want to storm off in a huff and take your ball home, then so be it.

Djoser
11-04-2021, 08:44 PM
Goddamn, it was going so well. I hate to have to close the thread.

'Ignore' is a good thing if it keeps people from having the same argument over and over. We've all done it a few times.

Djoser
11-04-2021, 08:50 PM
As for me, I can't think of many places outside a hospital subject to more exposure than working a south Florida stripclub.

I'm about 90% sure I had it at some point, possibly very early last year relatively speaking. I'm not around old people (well other than some of the customers haha!) or I'd be a lot more worried about maybe carrying it. I'll gladly wear a mask wherever they feel it's necessary--like at the doctor last week, but not when I go out down here--sure as hell no one else is.

I did find it ironic that one guy claiming it was all a hoax to beat Trump got it worst of all the industry people I know. Thankfully he is OK, he's a good guy if maybe a little off on some theories. ;D

moneybags
11-04-2021, 11:31 PM
56147

With all due respect. There’s certain people who repeatedly keep causing drama on this forum. I quit engaging with the primary drama makers awhile ago. Quit feeding the trolls ladies and gentlemen.

rickdugan
11-05-2021, 07:29 AM
Goddamn, it was going so well. I hate to have to close the thread.

'Ignore' is a good thing if it keeps people from having the same argument over and over. We've all done it a few times.

When I got my knuckles rapped for making fun of another blue for insisting (including issuing imperious directives to stop giving medical advice) that we needed a medical degree to draw reasonable conclusions from CDC mortality statistics, I sat out for a while. Now the same person is melting down because his comparison of the death stats of very rural Maine to a state like Florida was rather reasonably criticized.

Now I don't pay the bills around here nor do I volunteer my time to keep the site flowing smoothly, so obviously those who do can decide whether they want one or two loud individuals with strong emotional opinions to be able to shut down conversations. Because when they are indulged every time they try to control what people say (like telling them to stop giving medical advice when they quote CDC numbers), or claim some victim status (condescended to, trolled, etc.) every time their views or examples are challenged, that's what happens.

The simple reality is that the overwhelming majority of dancers had very little to fear from COVID. But time and again when this was highlighted, someone was always there claiming that this was medical advice, or posting isolated one-off examples of bad luck as if they were the norm, or claiming that little kids were dropping like flies in their neighborhood (which was ridiculous) or posting something else to distort the very hard and clear statistical realities. Shoot when I posted about Florida being wide open in Industry Insight about a year ago you'd have though that I was advocating genocide, lol, given the reactions of a few vocal participants, including this same blue who has been leading the COVID fear mongering drum pounding for 18 months now.

Again, it's not my dime, so you guys will decide how you want to manage messaging. But when actual dancers who have been working through most of the COVID timeframe have to post apologetically in these threads because they had the audacity to actually work to support themselves, then IMHO there is something out of whack on a site that, first and foremost, exists to support dancers. It makes me wonder how many dancers see this and choose not to participate at all, including the tens of thousands that worked throughout the pandemic in FL, GA, WI and other states that did not lock down for very long.

Eric Stoner
11-05-2021, 08:34 AM
Eagle - I think you should lighten up and try not to take this board too seriously. Every once in a while you seem to go off the deep end and I usually encourage you to lie down and apply a cool compress lol.
I try to promote civility. Imho we should try to talk TO and WITH each other as opposed to AT each other. You and I have gone at it for YEARS. While you can be insulting you have never called me a name or told me TGFM or anything like that. I in turn have tried to deflect personal attacks with good humor to show that it really doesn't bother me that much. And it doesn't. If anything it is a sign of weakness on the part of the attacker.
Sometimes you get so invested in an issue and are so convinced that you are right that you apparently assume that anyone who disagrees with you is stupid, crazy , ignorant or obtuse. I am sorry but putting Rick on Ignore seems childish and I frankly expected better from you. Not everyone agrees with you. It's part of life.
Hopefully you will re-engage because otherwise I will have to do YOUR job and ride herd on Rick when he steps over the line lol. Thanks a lot lol.

Eric Stoner
11-05-2021, 08:52 AM
Fuck you with your condescending comments. You're completely ignorant of the facts and science as well. MA, NY, and NJ have high death rates because they didn't lock down when they should have. If you exclude the first two or three months of the pandemic, where they waited too long to lock down, their death rates are far, far lower than Florida's, where your sociopath governor showed complete disregard for the science as well as for the lives of the residents of his state. What you advocate has been proven to be a disaster again and again and again, yet you continue to keep repeating the same nonsensical, anti-science garbage over and over and over again. It's a waste of time to even try to have a discussion with you. You're now on ignore. Your only reason for being here is to harass and troll other members of the forum.

You seem to claim that we ought to ignore the first two or three months of the Covid Pandemic to measure deaths in N.Y. , N.J. and Massachusetts . Why ? The governors of those and other states had the same information as everyone else. N.Y. and N.J. had Covid deaths peak more than a month after their initial lockdown. All three states you cite ordered Covid positive patients put back into nursing homes after they were discharged from hospitals.
All three had some of the highest Covid death rates in the country. Massachusetts had over 9,000 deaths in nursing homes along ; about 1 in 4 total residents. Both N.Y. and N.J. had tens of thousands of nursing home deaths from Covid.
Massachusetts locked down on March 10, 2020. N.Y. locked down on March 7 and N.J. on March 16. N.Y. expanded its lockdown by closing schools on March 16 and non-essential businesses were ordered to shut down on March 20. DeSantis shut down Florida on April 3.

Just when exactly do you claim that the governors of the states mentioned should have shut down ? Based on what ? The Covid daily death counts for N.Y. and N.J. peaked in late April in both states. I could not find the peak daily death rate for Mass. In contrast, last year , in 2020 ( NOT this years surge ) Florida's death rates ran well behind both states.

Eric Stoner
11-05-2021, 09:04 AM
For starters, every state that locked down did so within a couple of weeks of each other, so I'm not sure how much I'm buying this tunnel vision notion that it was all about the lockdowns. Now did lockdowns help? No doubt, but we really don't know how much. If your theory was true that it was only about lockdowns, then places like South Dakota, North Dakota and Wyoming should be at the very top of the death rate list because they didn't really lock down at all, but they aren't. Wisconsin was one of the states that ended lockdowns early, so if your theory was correct, they should be at the top of the death rate list too but nope - 13th lowest in fact.

It is you who is so emotionally invested in your own opinion that, in addition to melting down when someone disagrees with your premise, you are ignoring other scientific variables by not acknowledging the well document role of population clusters in spread and mortality rates. Now the reality is that the death rates were most likely influenced by some combination of factors, lockdown timeframes and population clusters being two big ones but not the only ones.

But by pounding the lockdown drum as if it was the only variable because it conveniently supports your emotionally preferred narrative, IMHO you are missing a much broader picture. Just like you don't want to hear about tradeoffs because you are dug in on the notion that nothing was more important than stopping every single infection. Well sorry eagle, but not everyone agrees with you and it's certainly not trolling to say so. If that makes you want to storm off in a huff and take your ball home, then so be it.

Since Eagle is on hiatus I guess I have to do HIS job and point to a few holes in your argument lol. For one thing Wyoming and both Dakotas have VERY low population density compared to many other states. If they had locked down I doubt that many people would have been able to notice a difference.
Wyoming has a smaller population than any other state ( even Alaska has more people ) with what for "cities" ? Casper ? Cheyenne ? Laramie ? Cody ? Jackson Hole ? North Dakota has Fargo and Bismark and what else ? South Dakota has Pierre and Rapid City and maybe Sioux Falls ?

On the other hand Wisconsin has Milwaukee , Green Bay , Madison, Oshkosh, Shaboygan , La Crosse and Eau Claire and maybe one or two others.

rickdugan
11-05-2021, 09:34 AM
Since Eagle is on hiatus I guess I have to do HIS job and point to a few holes in your argument lol. For one thing Wyoming and both Dakotas have VERY low population density compared to many other states. If they had locked down I doubt that many people would have been able to notice a difference.
Wyoming has a smaller population than any other state ( even Alaska has more people ) with what for "cities" ? Casper ? Cheyenne ? Laramie ? Cody ? Jackson Hole ? North Dakota has Fargo and Bismark and what else ? South Dakota has Pierre and Rapid City and maybe Sioux Falls ?

On the other hand Wisconsin has Milwaukee , Green Bay , Madison, Oshkosh, Shaboygan , La Crosse and Eau Claire and maybe one or two others.

LOL. Good to have you picking up the slack. ;)

But the reality is the Wisconsin's "cities" have a lot more in common with those in ND, SD and WY than they do in the sprawling (and dense) metro areas of coastal FL. As someone who has traveled to WI for work I can tell you that those "cities" are hardly large urban meccas - which is kinda my point. If lockdown timing was the sole contributor to death rates then WI, which opened early, should look more like FL in terms of stats. But it doesn't, in part because it doesn't have the concentrated population clusters that contributed to more rapid spread.

eagle2
11-05-2021, 01:12 PM
You seem to claim that we ought to ignore the first two or three months of the Covid Pandemic to measure deaths in N.Y. , N.J. and Massachusetts . Why ? The governors of those and other states had the same information as everyone else. N.Y. and N.J. had Covid deaths peak more than a month after their initial lockdown. All three states you cite ordered Covid positive patients put back into nursing homes after they were discharged from hospitals.
All three had some of the highest Covid death rates in the country. Massachusetts had over 9,000 deaths in nursing homes along ; about 1 in 4 total residents. Both N.Y. and N.J. had tens of thousands of nursing home deaths from Covid.
Massachusetts locked down on March 10, 2020. N.Y. locked down on March 7 and N.J. on March 16. N.Y. expanded its lockdown by closing schools on March 16 and non-essential businesses were ordered to shut down on March 20. DeSantis shut down Florida on April 3.

Just when exactly do you claim that the governors of the states mentioned should have shut down ? Based on what ? The Covid daily death counts for N.Y. and N.J. peaked in late April in both states. I could not find the peak daily death rate for Mass. In contrast, last year , in 2020 ( NOT this years surge ) Florida's death rates ran well behind both states.

My point is, NY and NJ waited too long to lock down, which is why their death rate was so high the first three months. Putting covid patients back in nursing homes also contributed. Researchers estimate that there would have 36,000 fewer deaths in March through May 2020, if states had locked down one week earlier.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/coronavirus-distancing-deaths.html

Washington was the first state to lock down, and their death rate is less than one half of the national average. Covid can spread very rapidly, so a few days can make a very big difference.

Eric Stoner
11-08-2021, 09:40 AM
Washington locked down first because they were the state that got hit first. They had a serious outbreak which btw was concentrated in their nursing homes and long term care facilities.

Eric Stoner
11-11-2021, 08:39 AM
California's current Covid case rate is more than twice that of Florida.

In Sweden which locked down the least of any European country and used mostly voluntary measures the Infection rate was 1 in 1,000. In Austria it is 8 ; it's 7 in Belgium and Italy and 5 in the U.K. Sweden had 1.5 Covid deaths per 1,000 .The U.K. had 2.1 and Belgium and Italy both had 2 per 1,000. Sweden's closest neighbors did somewhat better . Norway and Finland had .2 deaths per 1,000 and Denmark had .4. Denmark of course has a much higher population density than any of its Scandinavian neighbors.

The other side of the coin is that Sweden had very little economic disruption from NOT locking down and its economy is outperforming its neighbors.

Sweden did NOT do a good job of protecting its elderly and nursing home residents where most of their deaths were concentrated.

The above data is two days old.

eagle2
11-14-2021, 12:51 PM
Sweden's death rate from covid is 8.5 times higher than Norway's. Sweden's unemployment rate is 8.2%. Norway's is 4.2%.

Bahuba
11-14-2021, 11:27 PM
Sweden's death rate from covid is 8.5 times higher than Norway's. Sweden's unemployment rate is 8.2%. Norway's is 4.2%.

I was talking this week with friends from both Bergen and Uppsala, and they don't really see it as a country against country thing. Only Americans with our ridiculous polarization imagine that. They see it as Scandinavians fighting off a difficult disease, each doing their best. It agree with them that keeping score by country in a time of pandemic is pretty stupid, as the shoe could be on the other foot 6 months later.

Eric Stoner
11-15-2021, 08:22 AM
Sweden's death rate from covid is 8.5 times higher than Norway's. Sweden's unemployment rate is 8.2%. Norway's is 4.2%.


As I said, Sweden made its mistakes. Particularly in not protecting its nursing home population. Like your favorite state , Sweden accepted tradeoffs. They kept their schools, stores , bars and restaurants open albeit with social distance requirements.

Sweden's GDP growth rate is 4% vs. 3% for Norway. In 2020 Norway had 10% unemployment. Sweden's was 8.45 %.
In Norway , unemployment in tourism and transportation went from 3.4 to 13.6%. Retail went from 2.9 to 6.8%. Services from 2.7 to 5.8 % .

Historically Norway's unemployment rate has run at least 2 points lower than Sweden's. For the last decade or so Sweden has been struggling with 4% of its population being mismatched with available jobs. Norway's labor participation rate has been much higher than Sweden's.

eagle2
11-15-2021, 12:47 PM
I was talking this week with friends from both Bergen and Uppsala, and they don't really see it as a country against country thing. Only Americans with our ridiculous polarization imagine that. They see it as Scandinavians fighting off a difficult disease, each doing their best. It agree with them that keeping score by country in a time of pandemic is pretty stupid, as the shoe could be on the other foot 6 months later.

I don't think it's stupid to look at which policies have been successful in fighting the spread of covid and which haven't, especially considering most covid cases and deaths are preventable.

Eric Stoner
11-15-2021, 01:18 PM
I don't think it's stupid to look at which policies have been successful in fighting the spread of covid and which haven't, especially considering most covid cases and deaths are preventable.

That's true Eagle but the squabble with you has centered on other costs besides just Covid cases and sadly, deaths. Obviously a total complete lockdown with nobody allowed to leave their houses and apartments for any reason whatsoever would probably be 100 % effective or close to it. For how long ? At what cost ?
Your opinion to which you are entitled is that choosing or tradeoffs are somehow immoral. I think. Please correct me if that is NOT what you have been trying to say. Rick and I have supported a more balanced and nuanced approach. In fact it is starting to be questionable as to how many Covid cases and deaths are actually "preventable" . First it was : " Endure a shutdown for two weeks to "bend the curve". Then it was "vaccination - One , two and now oh NO ! you need three vaccinations. And then maybe an annual booster." Effective treatments for Covid ? Yes, so long as they are expensive and the drug companies can make a buck. If they are relatively cheap we'll get Fauci et. al. to say they are "unproven" "ineffective" or even "dangerous" no matter how much published clinical case data there might be.

Right now , today, Florida has the lowest rate of new Covid cases in the whole U.S.

Marina Starr
11-15-2021, 01:19 PM
Can't wait for my booster next week. Side effects I got from being fully vaccinated is I am now prettier and sluttier.

eagle2
11-15-2021, 02:50 PM
That's true Eagle but the squabble with you has centered on other costs besides just Covid cases and sadly, deaths. Obviously a total complete lockdown with nobody allowed to leave their houses and apartments for any reason whatsoever would probably be 100 % effective or close to it. For how long ? At what cost ?


I'm not saying everyone should stayed locked inside forever. There's a lot that can be done without locking down. Vaccine mandates and mask mandates, except when eating or drinking, would probably prevent 99% of deaths and hospitalizations, without disrupting people's lives. I always wear a mask in public places. It's not that bad. Sometimes I forget that I have it on. I don't understand why some people are so freaked out over this.

kamiliam
11-15-2021, 06:24 PM
I was talking this week with friends from both Bergen and Uppsala, and they don't really see it as a country against country thing. Only Americans with our ridiculous polarization imagine that. They see it as Scandinavians fighting off a difficult disease, each doing their best. It agree with them that keeping score by country in a time of pandemic is pretty stupid, as the shoe could be on the other foot 6 months later.


I fully understand and echo this. The Scandinavian togetherness has come through with my communication with Denmark throughout. I will add that I hear a lot of disagreement about what Sweden did, along with normal cultural jabs to go along. There are also different ideas within the country. My sample is biased I’m sure, but there definitely isn’t this partisan divide on the issue. They believe in a common good, and despite disagreements believe most people act for everyone’s betterment. Just my experience

Eric Stoner
11-16-2021, 10:05 AM
I'm not saying everyone should stayed locked inside forever. There's a lot that can be done without locking down. Vaccine mandates and mask mandates, except when eating or drinking, would probably prevent 99% of deaths and hospitalizations, without disrupting people's lives. I always wear a mask in public places. It's not that bad. Sometimes I forget that I have it on. I don't understand why some people are so freaked out over this.

We have a good faith PARTIAL disagreement on the efficacy of MOST masks.

I support most vaccine mandates UNLESS there is a sound medical reason not to get vaccinated. It goes against my libertarian grain to require them but the pluses so far outweigh the minuses that I think we should. I am still stuck on the fence about vaccinating young children. I think that is best left to their parents to decide. Same thing for requiring them to wear masks.

I would like to see greater emphasis on known effective treatments for Covid.

Bahuba
11-16-2021, 10:08 AM
I fully understand and echo this. The Scandinavian togetherness has come through with my communication with Denmark throughout. I will add that I hear a lot of disagreement about what Sweden did, along with normal cultural jabs to go along. There are also different ideas within the country. My sample is biased I’m sure, but there definitely isn’t this partisan divide on the issue. They believe in a common good, and despite disagreements believe most people act for everyone’s betterment. Just my experience

Agreed. We are still in this pandemic, yet internet "experts" are already assigning scores to countries that are not their own based on zero science. Not even the medical community fully understand COVID yet.

eagle2
11-16-2021, 12:13 PM
Agreed. We are still in this pandemic, yet internet "experts" are already assigning scores to countries that are not their own based on zero science. Not even the medical community fully understand COVID yet.

The medical community does fully understand how covid is spread and how to prevent it from spreading. The problem we have is that many governments and individuals aren't following the recommendations of the medical community.

eagle2
11-16-2021, 12:21 PM
I would like to see greater emphasis on known effective treatments for Covid.

It's much better to not get the virus in the first place. There currently are no effective treatments for covid, although Pfizer has come out with a pill that has worked well in tests. Right now if you catch covid, how sick you get and whether or not you die from it, depends a lot on luck. Medical care can make a difference, but there is nothing that is 100% effective. If you've been vaccinated, then you're far less likely to become very sick, or die from covid, than if you haven't.

Eric Stoner
11-16-2021, 12:45 PM
It's much better to not get the virus in the first place. There currently are no effective treatments for covid, although Pfizer has come out with a pill that has worked well in tests. Right now if you catch covid, how sick you get and whether or not you die from it, depends a lot on luck. Medical care can make a difference, but there is nothing that is 100% effective. If you've been vaccinated, then you're far less likely to become very sick, or die from covid, than if you haven't.

That is totally NOT true. There are dozens of infectious disease experts in the U.S. ( and hundreds of internists and cardiologists) who have been successfully treating Covid patients in and out of hospitals almost since the inception of the pandemic. That is ONE of my BIGGEST complaints about Fauci. The way he has led the mainstream media by the nose into believing and sometimes reporting that hydroxychloroquine, Ivermectin and other modalities are "unproven" , "ineffective" or even "dangerous". He does NOT treat patients. He NEVER has. He does not talk to front line doctors who do treat patients. I have talked to at least ten such doctors who use monoclonal antibodies, hydroxychloroquine , zinc , Vitamin D and other cheap modalities . Their PUBLISHED peer reviewed case studies are all over the place. The only thing they don't use afaik is Ivermectin but NONE of them discounted its use. There are no malpractice suits against any of the hundreds of doctors using these proven modalities. There are no cease and desist orders or disciplinary proceeding against any of them, NOT one , for using these treatments. The way Fauci et al pretends that some of these things are exotic or some sort of snake oil is disgusting.

That said , you are right that prevention is always better than cure. Covid is not something you want to have no matter how strong and healthy you might be. We are all better off the more people get vaccinated.

Bahuba
11-16-2021, 04:15 PM
The medical community does fully understand how covid is spread and how to prevent it from spreading. The problem we have is that many governments and individuals aren't following the recommendations of the medical community.

That statement couldn't be farther from the truth. We are still in the early stages of understanding, and we are relying on basic studies to assemble an idea of how to reduce infection.

We do not know the origin of the virus. We do not know the exact mechanisms and effects of the virus on humans. We do not know the effectiveness or the duration of efficacy of the vaccines. We do not have a cure for the virus. We do not have a 100% accurate test for the presence of viral antibodies.

We have well founded conjectures about reduction of transference but nothing more than that.

Further, you did not personally undertake or oversee any studies, nor have you personally been called upon to comment on any studies by the medical establishment of any country. You are simply denigrating a Scandinavian country based on what you read in amateur publications in English.

You are, of course, welcome to your opinion, but I hardly think you have the standing to go around declaring judgment on the COVID strategy of any nation other than perhaps your own.

kamiliam
11-16-2021, 05:17 PM
The flip side of the good nature we are talking about when it comes to Scandinavians, is that they have a very hard time taking accountability when they didn’t make a mistake because of ill will. As a region they were very isolated for a long time, by choice. That’s why they all talk crap about the other countries within the region. Once again this is the culture that I was very much raised in and connected to, there and within the European expat community. They have very different POV and it’s silly to declare anyone right in regards to covid by their needs. Not to start a poll off, but last time I checked most Scandinavians had a low vaxx resistance, so it generally isn’t the same mindset.