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eagle2
03-06-2022, 06:40 PM
Russia's economy could suffer a 'deep' recession that cuts GDP by 11% as sanctions sharpen, JPMorgan says

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-recession-sanctions-nato-swift-putin-ukraine-biden-debt-2022-3

kamiliam
03-06-2022, 07:00 PM
Also to add, it’s quite interesting to see how diverse the Russia cheerleading squad is. The Wumao/50 Cent types aren’t a surprise, nor is a good portion of the “Brandon” crowd, but also the self-described Marxist-Leninist types, in spite of post-Soviet Russia having existed in what Marx himself described as the worst stage of capitalism since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

I am not pro Putin, I am not pro soviet union, my grandfather was Baltic and was tossed around by both Germany and Russia, the result is the only reason we came to America. He hated the USSR, and guess what we were all socialists, just a way different type. You are making wild assumptions with nothing to back it up.

The US gave weapons to people who became terrorists, to fight in proxy wars again and again
I am not ML. No where was that said. I think you need to step into the current times when discussing leftist ideas since you have such strong opinions.
Why does NATO exist after the fall of the Soviet Union? Why did all agreements mean nothing immediately after the fall? For the millionth time this doesn't justify what is happening in this direct invasion by Russia. I guess that has to be said every time just so you don't have to be accused of being a tankie a very small group BTW.


What would I do? Well I am an American so I would probably choose to have other countries not just looking for an oil grab make that choice.

rickdugan
03-06-2022, 07:22 PM
Russia's air force is very undersupplied with smart bombs, so their aircraft are forced to fly low to drop unguided bombs. Ukraine has not had a problem shooting down Russian jet aircraft. It looks like they got another three today.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1500439001819455489?s=21

Hopefully they'll get more MIGs, but Ukraine's air force is still flying and the Ukrainians have been able to shoot down dozens of Russian fighter planes and helicopters.

The facts contradict you.

Rick says: We are going to make more toothless lion noises in committee and drag our asses on the floor until Russia finally bails us out by making this all moot

Fact:

Biden approved $350 million worth of weapons to Ukraine. It normally takes weeks or months for foreign countries to receive American weapons, once the transfer has been approved. Within two days of Biden signing off on the assistance, deliveries were arriving at an airport near the Ukraine border.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-weapons.html

Rick says: I very much believe that Biden secretly wishes that Russia would just finish Ukraine off so that these images of civilians slaughtered and pleas from Zelensky will stop making the collective leaders of NATO look so damned impotent.

Fact: Ukraine has shot down dozens of Russian aircraft and destroyed hundreds of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and supply trucks with weapons provided to them by the US and other NATO countries. Eleven days into the conflict, Russia has made little progress. Putin and his military are the ones looking impotent.

Ok Eagle, if the Ukraine has been as successful in shooting down a sufficient number of bombers and fighter aircrafts, and has otherwise successfully stopped the Russian invasion, as your no doubt well informed tactical analysis has concluded, then who is lying to us?

Are the reporters who keep telling us that the Russians are killing countless civilians lying to us? And not just with artillery, though that too of course, but with actual airstrikes that the Ukraine cannot seem to prevent? Boy that's an awful lot of liars.

Is Zelensky lying to us when he says they need more air power to contest their airspace? Is the Ukrainian Defense Minister lying? Sheesh, you'd think they'd be a little busy to be misleading their suppliers about what they really need right now, but who knows, right? Perhaps you think they are intentionally letting the Russians kill their people?

Look Eagle, normally I enjoy these little moments of ours more, where you pick at threads while ignoring everything else, including the obvious, in order to try to defend your views. But women and children are dying and we quite clearly are not doing enough to help.

rickdugan
03-06-2022, 07:31 PM
Here is a snippet from a Wall Street Journal piece published today. It was written by Natalie Jaresko, who served as the Ukraine's Finance Minister from 2014-2016 and in the U.S. State Department from '89-95. Of course she could be lying too, but she seems eminently more qualified to speak about what could and should be done to stop Russia than any of us.


"As a Ukrainian-American, I feel torn between anger and shame. Anger at the continuing massacre of thousands of Ukrainians by the Russian military as it targets civilians. Shame because the U.S. could do much more to stop this indiscriminate slaughter.

America must stop Vladimir Putin now to avoid the worst catastrophe in Europe since World War II. If Washington doesn’t act decisively, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will die, and other countries may be invaded as well. The U.S. has underestimated Mr. Putin’s appetite too many times, and Washington’s leniency has given him the confidence to commit the war crimes we see in the news today.

Mr. Putin must be stopped on two fronts—in Ukraine, by the Ukrainian army, with direct and unwavering U.S. support; and in Russia, by cutting off its economy and financial system to block the war’s funding.

For this to work, the U.S. must increase its involvement at all levels: federal, state and business.

At the federal level, that means substantially increasing the delivery of military equipment to the Ukrainian army, in particular air defense and electronic warfare systems, fighter jets provided through allies, and Patriot and Stinger missiles. It also means tightening economic sanctions. Washington must also expand these sanctions to all Russian and Belarusian banks and commodity and energy companies—Belarus has allowed Russian missile launches from its territory—as well as freeze all these institutions’ assets and put each one on the Treasury Department’s Specially Designated Nationals list. The U.S. must disconnect all of these banks, not only a “select” few number, from Swift—the international network through which almost all financial information flows. America can lead on these sanctions, bringing allies along."

Complete article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-ukraine-war-crimes-invasion-sanctions-defense-systems-electronic-warfare-russia-patriot-stinger-missiles-arms-swift-11646593726?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

eagle2
03-06-2022, 07:54 PM
Ok Eagle, if the Ukraine has been as successful in shooting down a sufficient number of bombers and fighter aircrafts, and has otherwise successfully stopped the Russian invasion, as your no doubt well informed tactical analysis has concluded, then who is lying to us?

Are the reporters who keep telling us that Russian aircraft are killing scores of civilians lying to us? And not just with artillery, though that too of course, but with actual airstrikes that the Ukraine cannot seem to prevent. Boy that's an awful lot of liars.

Is Zelensky lying to us when he says they need more air power to contest their airspace? Is the Ukrainian Defense Minister lying? Sheesh, you'd think they'd be a little busy to be misleading their suppliers about what they really need right now, but who knows, right? Perhaps you think they are intentionally letting the Russians kill their people?


It's a waste of time trying to have a discussion with someone so poorly informed and having such a poor understanding of the facts, and is so far removed from reality that he thinks Ukraine could wipe out Russia's military overnight, and the only reason they haven't done it, is because we didn't supply them with enough equipment. It seems far above and beyond your ability to understand that Russia has a much, much larger military than Ukraine, which is why they're still able to go on fighting, even after losing dozens of fighter planes and helicopters, and hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, and trucks. I wouldn't be surprised if you're secretly cheering for Russia, so you can bash Biden over it.

You're comment suggesting we send F16s to Ukraine shows how little you know about the military. You're completely clueless.



Look Eagle, normally I enjoy these little moments of ours more, where you pick at threads while ignoring everything else, including the obvious, in order to try to defend your views. But women and children are dying and we quite clearly are not doing enough to help.

You continue to have this stupid, delusional idea that what gets posted on a stripper forum is going to have some type of impact on the war in Ukraine. In your mind you're a brave keyboard warrior. In reality, you've accomplished nothing more than show how clueless and uninformed you are. I should have known better than to think I could have an intelligent conversation with you, or that you would show respect for the other members of the forum by not turning this thread into a fight, like you love to do. No more feeding the troll for me. I'm putting you back on ignore.

DeathAndTaxes
03-06-2022, 07:59 PM
I would take with an enormous grain of salt the stories about fighter aircraft being shot down, these aircraft use CCIP or CCRP equivalents to drop bombs they are not flying low at all. In particular the Fullback that was designed specifically for PGM.

The propaganda war is real.

rickdugan
03-06-2022, 08:01 PM
It's a waste of time trying to have a discussion with someone so poorly informed and having such a poor understanding of the facts, and is so far removed from reality that he thinks Ukraine could wipe out Russia's military overnight, and the only reason they haven't done it, is because we didn't supply them with enough equipment. It seems far above and beyond your ability to understand that Russia has a much, much larger military than Ukraine, which is they're still able to go on fighting, even after losing dozens of fighter planes and helicopters, and hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, and trucks. I wouldn't be surprised if you're secretly cheering for Russia, so you can bash Biden over it.

You're comment suggesting we send F16s to Ukraine shows how little you know about the military. You're completely clueless.

You continue to have this stupid, delusional idea that what gets posted on a stripper forum is going to have some type of impact on the war in Ukraine. In your mind you're a brave keyboard warrior. In reality, you've accomplished nothing more than show how clueless and uninformed you are. I should have known better than to think I could have an intelligent conversation with you, or that you would show respect for the other members of the forum by not turning this thread into a fight, like you love to do. No more feeding the troll for me. I'm putting you back on ignore.

We don't have to provide them enough equipment to wipe out Russia's military, lol, just enough to make it too costly to continue. Oh and btw Russia's military is estimated to be one million strong, so 150k is a lot less than its whole military. I thought that I'd share that "clueless" tidbit as well.

But you never answered my question: So who's lying? The reporters? Current and former Ukrainian officials? All of them? Also have you now also convinced yourself that you have a better handle on the tactical deployment of those requested weapons than the military experts asking for them? :)

Any place is a good place to talk about this, even a stripper forum. The more collective awareness there is about what is happening the more that our politicians will feel increasing pressure to do more.

AChildOfBoredom
03-06-2022, 09:04 PM
Really loving how you skipped over the post which was directed at you and went to the one which wasn’t.


I am not pro Putin

I am not pro soviet union, my grandfather was Baltic and was tossed around by both Germany and Russia, the result is the only reason we came to America. He hated the USSR, and guess what we were all socialists, just a way different type. You are making wild assumptions with nothing to back it up.

I did no such thing. That was a general statement not directed at you. Again, as long as we’ve both been on this forum, it shouldn’t escape you that if I have something I want to say to you, I will say it to you outright.


The US gave weapons to people who became terrorists, to fight in proxy wars again and again

Welcome to the way of the world. The Soviet Union/Russia, China, Germany, Libya, Greece, France, et. al. did this also. But we’re not talking arming a ragtag band of peasants here, we’re talking about weapons going to the bona fide Ukrainian military.


I am not ML. No where was that said. I think you need to step into the current times when discussing leftist ideas since you have such strong opinions.

Again, a general observation which wasn’t directed at you. And I’m probably further left than you are, so maybe you need to step back and check yourself. But tell me again how I’m the one making baseless assumptions here.


Why does NATO exist after the fall of the Soviet Union?

Absence of war does not mean peace. Stability in Europe wasn’t just magically guaranteed after the fall of the Iron Curtain, nor did the ancien régime just magically disappear at that point. Hardliners attempted a coup in Moscow shortly before the final end of the Soviet Union, Russia had a constitutional crisis two years later, and the Yugoslav wars also kicked off in 1991 and went until 1999, then dark skies started showing over Ukraine in 2004… at which point were they supposed to be encouraged to abandon that framework? And apparently three former Soviet republics (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) saw the writing on the wall and joined in 2004, rather than pursue a policy of neutrality akin to Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, and Finland.

Realistically, the Warsaw Pact never fully died out either… it’s just that those who didn’t jump ship and join the opposite formed the Commonwealth of Independent States (which Ukraine never fully withdrew from until 2018).


Why did all agreements mean nothing immediately after the fall?

You mean the agreement by which Ukraine returned all strategic nuclear weapons to Russian control in exchange for a promise of noninterference from Russia? If not, which one(s) are you talking about?


For the millionth time this doesn't justify what is happening in this direct invasion by Russia. I guess that has to be said every time just so you don't have to be accused of being a tankie a very small group BTW.

If I were making any such accusation, I wouldn’t imply it - I’d say it outright. And again, you’re replying to a post which wasn’t directed at you while ignoring one which was.


What would I do? Well I am an American so I would probably choose to have other countries not just looking for an oil grab make that choice.

Just call it like it is - a cop out. What makes you think they aren’t? The response to the invasion isn’t just happening among NATO countries - which is a council of the heads of government of all involved - but also by countries which aren’t members. Countries not even in Europe have condemned the invasion (with a couple outliers, such as Cuba and Venezuela). Nothing to say about that, though?

FrankieSkyPrivate
03-07-2022, 03:21 AM
long story short:
*NATO (Europe's army alliance) want Ukraine to join the club
*Russia (Ukraine's neighbor) will not allow NATO to come any closer to their borders
*Russia preferred to attack Ukraine before they joined NATO

kamiliam
03-07-2022, 03:27 AM
Really loving how you skipped over the post which was directed at you and went to the one which wasn’t.

I did no such thing. That was a general statement not directed at you. Again, as long as we’ve both been on this forum, it shouldn’t escape you that if I have something I want to say to you, I will say it to you outright.


-You keep calling me a Russian sympathizer, stop. I was sick of you not getting the point of my nuclear post. You took issue with me stating that with the LATEST attack, Putin wasn't attempting to start a Nuclear war. I don't know what you were posting about.

Also not sure why I need to educate you that the Taliban emerged from the chaos the US created.

"The mujahedeen waged a guerrilla-style war against Soviet forces for several years, until exhausting the invaders militarily and politically. That and international pressure brought the Soviet Union to the negotiating table.


After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, chaos reigned. Within three years, the new government collapsed and the old mujahedeen commanders turned into warlords – with different factions in different regions, increasingly turning on one another.
Amid this chaos, one former Islamist mujahedeen commander, Mullah Mohammad Omar, looked to Pakistan – where a generation of young Afghans had grown up in refugee camps, going to various madrassas where they were trained in a brand of strict Islamic ideology, known as Deobandi.
From these camps he drew support for what became the Taliban – “taliban” means students. The bulk of Taliban members are not from the mujahedeen; they are the next generation – and they actually ended up fighting the mujahedeen." leaving the last line in because that is still what I meant.
https://theconversation.com/the-history-of-the-taliban-is-crucial-in-understanding-their-success-now-and-also-what-might-happen-next-166630

-I am also on vacation without a mouse making it hard to make these post look readable without thowing my laptop across the wall, so that is the main reason I didn't respond directly.

Welcome to the way of the world. The Soviet Union/Russia, China, Germany, Libya, Greece, France, et. al. did this also. But we’re not talking arming a ragtag band of peasants here, we’re talking about weapons going to the bona fide Ukrainian military.


-not really, this is a regime less then 10 years old


You mean the agreement by which Ukraine returned all strategic nuclear weapons to Russian control in exchange for a promise of noninterference from Russia? If not, which one(s) are you talking about?

-no I am talking about how we promised not to expand NATO east and we have been doing that since Germany joined in 55. How everyone from Kissinger to Chomsky warned that this would happen. Would you like those links to read?


Just call it like it is - a cop out. What makes you think they aren’t? The response to the invasion isn’t just happening among NATO countries - which is a council of the heads of government of all involved - but also by countries which aren’t members. Countries not even in Europe have condemned the invasion (with a couple outliers, such as Cuba and Venezuela). Nothing to say about that, though?

-I am condemning the invasion too. You know what is a cop out? What a hypocrite the US is on this issue. You say you are further to the left then me... please show me where because it sounds like you are pretty ok with imperialism in the name of democracy...

FrankieSkyPrivate
03-07-2022, 05:53 AM
I started a new threat to provide support (personal or work-related) for Ukrainian and Russian models during war:
https://www.stripperweb.com/forum/showthread.php?233506-Support-for-Ukrainian-and-Russian-models-during-war

pinups4
03-07-2022, 06:24 AM
Ukraine is in danger because WE, the corrupt people and govermnents of NATO and the US told Ukraine if they gave up their nukes in 1996 (international treaty saying we would protect them) then all would be fine.

News flash: it's not fine and America and its allies trashed another promise.

CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVES NOW AND DEMAND THEY STAND WITH AND DEFEND UKRAINE.

pinups4
03-07-2022, 06:55 AM
ukraine is now part of EU and we still won't defend them? shameful

rickdugan
03-07-2022, 06:59 AM
Ukraine is in danger because WE, the corrupt people and govermnents of NATO and the US told Ukraine if they gave up their nukes in 1996 (international treaty saying we would protect them) then all would be fine.

News flash: it's not fine and America and its allies trashed another promise.

CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVES NOW AND DEMAND THEY STAND WITH AND DEFEND UKRAINE.

Well back when this happened I don't think that anyone was comfortable with a fledging independent state coming out of the gate as a major nuclear power. There was a lot of chaos back then in those former Soviet states and a lot of weaponry that was left behind ultimately landed in the hands of warlords and guerilla groups spread all over the world. Also Russia was simply not going to tolerate a potentially adversarial nuclear power on its doorstep.

Also, to be specific about our treaty obligation, the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances does not actually obligate us to provide aid unless there is a nuclear attack. It merely states that each signatory will respect the Ukraine's independence and sovereignty. While Russia has clearly been in violation of this treaty since 2014, we are not strictly speaking in violation by failing to act against a conventional attack.

But with all of that said, I obviously agree that we need to stand with and defend Ukraine, for many other reasons.

rickdugan
03-07-2022, 07:08 AM
Information update: Russia is now recruiting Syrian soldiers to fight in the Ukraine. Apparently they have urban combat experience and training that the Russian soldiers lack. Just wonderful. Let's just hope that they don't bring their chemical weapons in with them.

I won't post any more information updates about civilian casualties as it is constant now. They are indiscriminately targeting civilian areas and won't even honr human evacuation corridors. They just killed a bunch more in overnight shelling. Maybe Putin is hoping that the world eventually gets numb to it - IDK.

AChildOfBoredom
03-07-2022, 08:12 PM
Using the quote tag would be really helpful


You keep calling me a Russian sympathizer, stop.

Bullshit. I’m not even gonna justify this claim of yours beyond that.


I was sick of you not getting the point of my nuclear post. You took issue with me stating that with the LATEST attack, Putin wasn't attempting to start a Nuclear war. I don't know what you were posting about.

You were making a point?

Apparently you don’t know, either. I pointed out that the plants were at risk. Never did I say Putin wanted it to go nuclear, but they have been careless (hence there was a fire at one) and I listed instances where design flaws were revealed after the fact. I still find it concerning that there are nuclear power plants in the middle of this. Putin, in spite of being at the head of this whole thing, isn’t the one spotting artillery fire, aiming cannons, etc., and the Russians have been a bit haphazard about it.


Also not sure why I need to educate you that the Taliban emerged from the chaos the US created.

This is a good question, though a better one would be what is it that makes you think you’re educating anyone? I can offer a couple guesses? You can’t accept that I have a lot more studies in this than you realize? Your definition of education is as flawed as other definitions you’ve presented?



"The mujahedeen waged a guerrilla-style war against Soviet forces for several years, until exhausting the invaders militarily and politically. That and international pressure brought the Soviet Union to the negotiating table.


After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, chaos reigned. Within three years, the new government collapsed and the old mujahedeen commanders turned into warlords – with different factions in different regions, increasingly turning on one another.
Amid this chaos, one former Islamist mujahedeen commander, Mullah Mohammad Omar, looked to Pakistan – where a generation of young Afghans had grown up in refugee camps, going to various madrassas where they were trained in a brand of strict Islamic ideology, known as Deobandi.
From these camps he drew support for what became the Taliban – “taliban” means students. The bulk of Taliban members are not from the mujahedeen; they are the next generation – and they actually ended up fighting the mujahedeen." leaving the last line in because that is still what I meant

Your last sentence is an outright lie. Let’s look at what it says.


The bulk of Taliban members are not from mujahadeen; they are the next generation

versus what you said

Oh, wait… we can’t because you edited the part out of your post where you quite literally said “The Taliban are the mujahadeen”. That is 100% NOT what you meant, and even with your cover up, I do remember what you said. Maybe I should’ve followed your example and not quote tagged it.

It’s really sad that you think five minutes of Google is going to make an adequate argument here. First, “the US created”. That’s a very woke point of view, but a very flawed and shortsighted one. Let’s see what your article ignores…

1: the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979.
2: this origins of the mujahadeen and what would become the Taliban alike existed well before 1979, and the seeds were sewn during the Mughal empire, and solidified further during the British conquest and Soviet invasion.
3: the US and USSR weren’t the only players. Pakistan also supported the mujahadeen during the Soviet invasion and occupation, even directly flying sorties against the Soviets.
4: The organization known as the Taliban had Pakistani intelligence at the helm. After the mujahadeen warlords left in power following the Soviet withdrawal ceased taking directives from the Pakistanis, the Taliban was formed to overthrow them and install a government more friendly to Pakistan.
5: The civil war in Afghanistan was a proxy war, with Russia supporting the Northern Alliance and the Taliban being supported by Pakistan and China (via Pakistan).

Would you like a recommended reading list? Books aren’t as convenient as YouTube or Google, I know, but these were authored by people whose credentials and credibility are well established. Shit, I’ll go one better - I’ll give them to you if you want. I don’t expect I’ll be reading them again, and I need to clear out some space. Then you can actually educate yourself before trying to educate others (least of all, those much more well read on a subject than you are).

Anyhow, while the US certainly would not be absolved, you have to do some serious cherry picking here to ignore the involvement of other countries (including the one which actually invaded it) and the fact that this is all seated in something which runs much deeper than the 20th Century.


I am also on vacation without a mouse making it hard to make these post look readable without thowing my laptop across the wall, so that is the main reason I didn't respond directly.

And everything I’ve posted on this thread has been either on an iPhone or iPad with neither a mouse nor a stylus. Guess we have different perspectives on what makes for a good excuse?

Also, what I was pointing out wasn’t that you didn’t answer me directly (which you did, you just didn’t use the quote tags), it was that the post you skipped over a post I directed at you and went to a post which wasn’t, and which was just a general statement about what I’ve noticed from people who have self identified as Marxist-Leninist (so your ‘get with the times comment should be directed at them if anyone). Is there a way I can explain this that you’ll comprehend it, because I keep having to repeat this?


-not really, this is a regime less then 10 years old

Yes, really. The Ukrainian military (which is more than 10 years old) is the armed forces of a sovereign state with worldwide recognition, nor was the Ukrainian military simply built from scratch, as its origins are in the Soviet armed forces. Your logic seems to be falling a bit short here.


no I am talking about how we promised not to expand NATO east and we have been doing that since Germany joined in 55.

No such promise or agreement was ever made. The Russians have argued that comments made by various Western leaders were to that effect, but there is nothing binding at all.


How everyone from Kissinger to Chomsky warned that this would happen. Would you like those links to read?

If you had something worthwhile, I feel like you would’ve posted it, as you did your link where you thought you were “educating” me about the Taliban. Second, NATO is a scapegoat. Why weren’t Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, or Poland attacked? What makes Ukraine so different?

It’s not NATO which the Russian regime feels threatened by. With over 6,000 nuclear warheads in their possession, Russia isn’t being invaded. It’s the EU. You won’t pick up on this making “on the fly” arguments as you browse through Wikipedia.

For years, Russians were more or less told that Ukrainians were simply Russians of a different seasoning, and Ukrainians for the most part accepted the notion. Not to mention Ukrainian Parliament shelved all notions to join NATO in 2010, and instead opted for a policy of nonalignment, which remained in place until after the annexation of Crimea. What they didn’t stop pursuing was integration with Europe and the Eurozone. So, let’s say Ukraine joins the EU, and they prosper. What happens when everyday Russians see this and start to ask the question of, “if we’re Russians, and they’re Russians for all practical purposes as we’ve been told, why don’t we have it like they do?”. What implication would that have for Putin, the various oligarchs, and his cabinet as a whole?

NATO isn’t invading Russia. Putin knows this. Russia, the US, UK, France… if you’re going to try to invade them, you’re going to absorb a nuclear strike - several, actually. They are infinitely more afraid of an Orange Revolution (or whatever color they would choose). They’re infinitely more afraid of that than they are of NATO. Russia can’t match any growth and prosperity which Ukraine would see joining the Eurozone - their oligarchs are far too busy plundering the country (we have a not too dissimilar problem here), so what’s their recourse? Russians don’t feel any particularly affinity with Estonians, Latvians, Czechs, Poles, etc. But Ukrainians? Much different story.


I am condemning the invasion too.

In a pretty halfassed, ‘playing devil’s advocate’ sort of way.


You know what is a cop out? What a hypocrite the US is on this issue. You say you are further to the left then me... please show me where because it sounds like you are pretty ok with imperialism in the name of democracy...

Yes, caring enough to understand the facts of the matter even if they don’t support the point of view I’d like them to is totally being okay with imperialism. Way to use the whataboutism argument. Way to “condemn” an imperialist invasion.

As for showing it? Maybe you should ask the others who I’ve taken into my home. The one who was thrown out and disowned by her family after they found out she had an abortion (she’s in the Navy now), the one who ran away from an abusive husband at 19, the one who was discarded by her family after she came out as a lesbian, the Amish runaway who had no other lifeline, the girl who was in the foster and group care system until she was 18, then was more or less told she was on her own. And while we all contribute to food and upkeep, perhaps my refusal to charge them rent because I have to means to pay my mortgage without taking it out on them, allowing them to retain their money for their own needs. While it wasn’t mere politics which led to it and I’m not subscribing to any Socialist channels on YouTube (which I don’t use YT much anyhow), I think I can at least use that to demonstrate where my philosophies and values lie, as well as my willingness to actually put it into action. I know it’s not changing the world, and I don’t even know if I’m doing it right, but I’m doing what I can here.

eagle2
03-08-2022, 03:06 AM
Beijing will pay if it helps Russia evade sanctions, US State Department official warns

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3169181/beijing-will-pay-if-it-helps-russia-evade-sanctions-us-state-department

rickdugan
03-08-2022, 07:02 AM
Ukraine is begging for planes that are just sitting in Poland and which its pilots are already trained to fly, but we just won't let them have the planes.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/politics/zelensky-ukraine-western-red-lines-analysis/index.html

Now the White House has been making some passive aggressive comments about this being Poland's decision, but nobody believes that. Poland is using a "drawing NATO into the war" excuse but who really speaks for NATO if not the U.S.? It's a pass the buck shell game where everyone is stalling, no doubt until the issue becomes moot.

Western leaders have been shamed by President Zelensky, who has been speaking directly to the world via social and other media, along with never-ending images of the slaughter. In one newly posted video, President Zelensky made the following statement:


"Some powerful people have decided to give up on Ukraine. But we will not allow that," Zelensky said in a passionate Facebook address, calling on world leaders to supply "lifesaving" military aviation and anti-rocket systems.

"(The) fault is with the occupants (Russians) but the responsibility is with those who for the last 13 days, somewhere out there, on the West, somewhere in their offices, can't approve an obviously necessary decision. Those who still haven't secured Ukrainian skies from the Russian killers, who hasn't protected our cities from air bombings and rockets, when they actually can."

One day we are going to look back upon all of this as the greatest human tragedy of our modern era. And when that day comes, history is going to paint a very unflattering portrait of our apathy and cowardice in the face of the slaughter of women and children and the downfall of a free democratic nation.

Eric Stoner
03-08-2022, 09:29 AM
Ukraine is begging for planes that are just sitting in Poland and which its pilots are already trained to fly, but we just won't let them have the planes.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/politics/zelensky-ukraine-western-red-lines-analysis/index.html

Now the White House has been making some passive aggressive comments about this being Poland's decision, but nobody believes that. Poland is using a "drawing NATO into the war" excuse but who really speaks for NATO if not the U.S.? It's a pass the buck shell game where everyone is stalling, no doubt until the issue becomes moot.

Western leaders have been shamed by President Zelensky, who has been speaking directly to the world via social and other media, along with never-ending images of the slaughter. In one newly posted video, President Zelensky made the following statement:


"Some powerful people have decided to give up on Ukraine. But we will not allow that," Zelensky said in a passionate Facebook address, calling on world leaders to supply "lifesaving" military aviation and anti-rocket systems.

"(The) fault is with the occupants (Russians) but the responsibility is with those who for the last 13 days, somewhere out there, on the West, somewhere in their offices, can't approve an obviously necessary decision. Those who still haven't secured Ukrainian skies from the Russian killers, who hasn't protected our cities from air bombings and rockets, when they actually can."

One day we are going to look back upon all of this as the greatest human tragedy of our modern era. And when that day comes, history is going to paint a very unflattering portrait of our apathy and cowardice in the face of the slaughter of women and children and the downfall of a free democratic nation.

I understand your passion and share your outrage at Putin's crimes. I favor giving Ukraine the weapons to fight their own battles. We should NOT be directly confronting Russia militarily as we would be doing with a "No Fly Zone ". I am all in favor of assisting them and letting them set up their own air defense.

Some of these conflicts go back centuries. Stalin starved millions of Ukrainians. Many Ukrainians greeted the invading German Army as liberators and collaborated. Including helping to round up and execute Jews and Roma ( Gypsies ). After the Great Patriotic War Stalin deported millions of Poles , Ukrainians , Tatars and other groups replacing them with ethnic Russians. I am NOT trying to excuse or explain away anything that is happening now. I AM trying to sound cautionary notes that we ought to have learned in places like Vietnam , Iraq and the Balkans. That we better know and understand the history and have updated scorecards .

What you are calling "cowardice" looks more like caution and care to me and lots of Biden detractors both in and out of Congress. While we are pleased at the lousy performance of the Russian Army it still remains part of a military that has something like 6,000 nuclear weapons.

Btw, Biden is supposedly announcing today an embargo on Russian oil and gas. FINALLY !

FrankieSkyPrivate
03-08-2022, 09:44 AM
Anastasiia Lenna, Miss Ukraine 2015:

https://i.imgur.com/1URR4cK.jpg

Anastasiia Lenna, 2022:

https://i.imgur.com/9Xu2mWc.jpg

Ukrainians are badass!

That model admited she didn't join the army, she just possed with the gun for the photo :/

rickdugan
03-08-2022, 09:59 AM
I understand your passion and share your outrage at Putin's crimes. I favor giving Ukraine the weapons to fight their own battles. We should NOT be directly confronting Russia militarily as we would be doing with a "No Fly Zone ". I am all in favor of assisting them and letting them set up their own air defense.

Some of these conflicts go back centuries. Stalin starved millions of Ukrainians. Many Ukrainians greeted the invading German Army as liberators and collaborated. Including helping to round up and execute Jews and Roma ( Gypsies ). After the Great Patriotic War Stalin deported millions of Poles , Ukrainians , Tatars and other groups replacing them with ethnic Russians. I am NOT trying to excuse or explain away anything that is happening now. I AM trying to sound cautionary notes that we ought to have learned in places like Vietnam , Iraq and the Balkans. That we better know and understand the history and have updated scorecards .

What you are calling "cowardice" looks more like caution and care to me and lots of Biden detractors both in and out of Congress. While we are pleased at the lousy performance of the Russian Army it still remains part of a military that has something like 6,000 nuclear weapons.

Btw, Biden is supposedly announcing today an embargo on Russian oil and gas. FINALLY !

I'm going to run with "cowardice" on this one. I can understand not wishing direct confrontation, but there is no reasonable excuse for us not to give them a fighting chance by letting them have those Soviet-era MIGs so that they can defend themselves. Those planes weren't built by us and would not be piloted by us. I also fully support giving them more missile defense systems, which, as the description states, are fully defensive.

If the Ukraine cannot contest the skies then this war has only one foregone conclusion. The only variables are how many civilians (including children) are slaughtered and how long it takes for Russia to bomb these cities into rubble and leave the defense forces with nowhere to hide. If we let the absurdly unlikely threat of Russian nukes freeze us while Russia slaughters countless Ukrainians, what's to stop them from eventually moving on other former Soviet states, including those in NATO?

This is not Putin's first civilian slaughter rodeo. He did it in Georgia and in Chechnya, where in both instances he followed the same playbook. He reduced cities to rubble without concern about killing thousands of civilians. The difference was that these conflicts were far removed from our eyes.

At some point we must show Putin that we will not tolerate this continued aggression against neighboring states or else we might as well invite him into Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia right now.

Eric Stoner
03-08-2022, 10:29 AM
I'm going to run with "cowardice" on this one. I can understand not wishing direct confrontation, but there is no reasonable excuse for us not to give them a fighting chance by letting them have those Soviet-era MIGs so that they can defend themselves. Those planes weren't built by us and would not be piloted by us. I also fully support giving them more missile defense systems, which, as the description states, are fully defensive.

If the Ukraine cannot contest the skies then this war has only one foregone conclusion. The only variables are how many civilians (including children) are slaughtered and how long it takes for Russia to bomb these cities into rubble and leave the defense forces with nowhere to hide. If we let the absurdly unlikely threat of Russian nukes freeze us while Russia slaughters countless Ukrainians, what's to stop them from eventually moving on other former Soviet states, including those in NATO?

This is not Putin's first civilian slaughter rodeo. He did it in Georgia and in Chechnya, where in both instances he followed the same playbook. He reduced cities to rubble without concern about killing thousands of civilians. The difference was that these conflicts were far removed from our eyes.

At some point we must show Putin that we will not tolerate this continued aggression against neighboring states or else we might as well invite him into Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia right now.

Hmmmm. I am literally biting my tongue and having myself tied to a chair to resist laying into a certain feckless and none too smart (or wise) person in a position of power and authority. I don't want to be accused of personal attacks masquerading as policy differences or vice versa. So I get you and what you are saying. Isn't it ironic that the same talking heads who ridiculed Romney for identifying Russia as our main adversary back in 2012 ; and who made fun of Trump for saying we would have $7 a gallon gas if Biden were elected haven't said anything close to : "They were right and we were wrong". ? But that would be too political.

Putin will do whatever he thinks is in his interest and that he can get away with.

eagle2
03-08-2022, 01:47 PM
Hmmmm. I am literally biting my tongue and having myself tied to a chair to resist laying into a certain feckless and none too smart (or wise) person in a position of power and authority. I don't want to be accused of personal attacks masquerading as policy differences or vice versa. So I get you and what you are saying. Isn't it ironic that the same talking heads who ridiculed Romney for identifying Russia as our main adversary back in 2012 ; and who made fun of Trump for saying we would have $7 a gallon gas if Biden were elected haven't said anything close to : "They were right and we were wrong". ? But that would be too political.

Putin will do whatever he thinks is in his interest and that he can get away with.

Russia wasn't our main adversary in 2012 and the price of gas isn't anywhere near $7 a gallon. The avg. price is $4.17. The only way gas would be any cheaper than it is now, is if our government chose not to do anything about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I'd rather pay more for gas.

rickdugan
03-08-2022, 02:09 PM
In a new twist, Poland just announced that it will be providing its MIGs to the U.S. to distribute as it sees fit. A snippet below from the WSJ article:


"The Polish government on Tuesday said the planes “are ready to deploy—immediately and free of charge.” The aircraft would be flown to the American Ramstein air base in Germany, where they would be at the disposal of the U.S., Poland’s foreign ministry said in a statement."

The U.S. had been claiming all along that it was a Polish decision and then, when that ridiculous claim rang false, started a stalling song and dance about having to figure out the logistical challenges of replacing those planes for Poland. It seems that Poland was tired of being blamed so instead found a way to pass the buck back to the U.S.

But even more from a Polish diplomat involved in this transfer:


“We wanted the certainty that in six months or two years everyone will be comfortable that this was a NATO idea, a Western idea...”

“...We can act on behalf of NATO, but we need support in doing so. And not every Western country feels safe or comfortable with that. What we would really like to avoid is providing jets to Ukraine and then being left alone because it was ‘our call.’”

Reading between the lines, it sounds like Poland wanted to provide these jets all along, but was afraid that its NATO Allies would use this as an excuse down the road to ditch their treaty obligations if Russia attacked. Given everything I've seen from NATO's Western leaders so far I don't blame Poland for being concerned.

Let's see what excuse this Administration comes up with now if they choose to withhold these fighters.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-to-make-mig-29-combat-jetsavailable-to-u-s-11646767232?mod=livecoverage_web

trustfundkiller
03-08-2022, 04:41 PM
I wonder how high gas prices are going to get. I'm guessing it won't be long before the cost of food and other goods start increasing too.

kamiliam
03-08-2022, 05:50 PM
You were making a point?
this is very petty. The back and forth where you misinterpret and carry on with what I was possibly unclear on, that turns into really a differing of beliefs; all the poking is gross. I am really hoping this is personal to you in some way. I could be real petty back if I wanted, but I really don't enjoy being that way on the internet on a board where I post both personal and professional things. Btw we are using the internet, you seem just super dismissive of any new media, like fine, but I have read a ton and a lot of books are shit, especially political ones no matter their accreditation. So much thinktank nonsense, you have to and want to publish to succeed in academia. I like to watch, listen and read interviews with an author, check them out on the internet, its all good for me at least. You are out here insulting people.

I am mid way through reading your post as I start my response. I'm gonna be editing it a ton before I final post so I don't make a mistake you will need to call me out on, I already found one for you in my previous post. So far I am seeing you insult my intelligence multiple times, and act like I haven't stated over and over what Putin has done is disgusting. I support the Ukrainian troops and even sanctions despite that I think they are cruel to the Russian people. Proving my previous post about needing a disclaimer every time someone wants to give context to the situation that implies America did clearly bad things without being accused of being eternally devoted to Mother Russia or something.

I am now the second person on this thread to call you out on being hostile. Again If this is personal to you don't have to share, but I kinda did. Again I am antiwar in general, from a longline socialist/left leaning family. They made it to the US with a lot of effort and sacrifice and had to conceal that part in order for a family member to escape the USSR, thankfully to an overall prosperous life in the US. I do not need to reveal my educational background to a complete stranger, just like you aren't. I will say that I burned out of academia much to everyone's disappointment/joy for probably all the things that irritate you about me, mostly that I am lazy/a diva. I have my professional name similar everywhere (my mistake when I signed up, is what is it now) and will not be doxxed for an internet debate or rather doxx others, who live much more private lives. Unlike me who spreads my legs live over the internet and have political opinions that are not everyone's cup of tea. You aren't reveling anything that would put you in that position. I'm gonna go ahead and give you some links and own up to my mistake with one, but other then that I will not engage with your little snipes when all you prove that you have no idea about theory and are very defensive about this one issue. But it also seems by the jabs you have had an issue with me for awhile, sorry about that.
I always meant that they became the Taliban. You are right not all, but it is clearly accepted that those weapons made there way to those who did. https://www.vox.com/world/22634008/us-troops-afghanistan-cold-war-bush-bin-laden Lots of context and there is no simple linear answer, not even in a book!


Would you like a recommended reading list?

No but I can recommend https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53420136-for-might-and-right and will be rereading The Shock Doctorine by Naomi Klein which I haven't read in like 10 years but am looking forward to on my plane ride home.



Yes, really. The Ukrainian military (which is more than 10 years old) is the armed forces of a sovereign state with worldwide recognition, nor was the Ukrainian military simply built from scratch, as its origins are in the Soviet armed forces. Your logic seems to be falling a bit short here.


Would we want the Ukraine of 2013/14 in NATO? Here's a twitter thread(sure you will love that) with the warnings of the situation we are in from people mostly more more mainstream then me. https://twitter.com/rnaudbertrand/status/1498491107902062592?s=27



No such promise or agreement was ever made. The Russians have argued that comments made by various Western leaders were to that effect, but there is nothing binding at all.
Here is a very generous to America account for you with all the historical promises and even desire from the west to not expand NATO. This account blames it on Yeltsin which is I'm sure a whole other disagreement we could have. https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early I obviously put the wrong date earlier, my apologies. I had a whole section that I took out about Germany that I realized wouldn't serve anything.


NATO isn’t invading Russia. Putin knows this. Russia, the US, UK, France… if you’re going to try to invade them, you’re going to absorb a nuclear strike - several, actually. They are infinitely more afraid of an Orange Revolution (or whatever color they would choose). They’re infinitely more afraid of that than they are of NATO. Russia can’t match any growth and prosperity which Ukraine would see joining the Eurozone - their oligarchs are far too busy plundering the country (we have a not too dissimilar problem here), so what’s their recourse? Russians don’t feel any particularly affinity with Estonians, Latvians, Czechs, Poles, etc. But Ukrainians? Much different story.

I mosly agree with you on this, but it isn't worth the back and forth on the minor differences.


As for showing it? Maybe you should ask the others who I’ve taken into my home. The one who was thrown out and disowned by her family after they found out she had an abortion (she’s in the Navy now), the one who ran away from an abusive husband at 19, the one who was discarded by her family after she came out as a lesbian, the Amish runaway who had no other lifeline, the girl who was in the foster and group care system until she was 18, then was more or less told she was on her own. And while we all contribute to food and upkeep, perhaps my refusal to charge them rent because I have to means to pay my mortgage without taking it out on them, allowing them to retain their money for their own needs. While it wasn’t mere politics which led to it and I’m not subscribing to any Socialist channels on YouTube (which I don’t use YT much anyhow), I think I can at least use that to demonstrate where my philosophies and values lie, as well as my willingness to actually put it into action. I know it’s not changing the world, and I don’t even know if I’m doing it right, but I’m doing what I can here.

This is awesome, always admired you with your personal stories, but has nothing to do with Politics and being to the left of me. What you are describing is closer being a Liberal, and understanding community, that is great. I was a liberal for some of college, Obama disappointment did me in

moneybags
03-08-2022, 06:31 PM
I wonder how high gas prices are going to get. I'm guessing it won't be long before the cost of food and other goods start increasing too.

Right. I’m not saying we shouldn’t stop buying oil, but damn I’m not looking forward to paying more than I already am.

I just feel like Putin won’t stop at Ukraine. I hope the sanctions work, but I’m doubtful. I’d love for the Russian people to rise up against the oligarchs. Hell I wish Americans would rise up against the corporate sponsored politicians too. I’m kinda hoping this is the start of an uprising of people against the powers that be.

Pandemic, insurrection, world war 3.

What a time to be alive! I guess we can look back historically and see we’ve gone through similar things and survived. I’ll just hold on to that for right now, so I don’t lose hope.

trustfundkiller
03-08-2022, 08:59 PM
Right. I’m not saying we shouldn’t stop buying oil, but damn I’m not looking forward to paying more than I already am.

I just feel like Putin won’t stop at Ukraine. I hope the sanctions work, but I’m doubtful. I’d love for the Russian people to rise up against the oligarchs. Hell I wish Americans would rise up against the corporate sponsored politicians too. I’m kinda hoping this is the start of an uprising of people against the powers that be.

Pandemic, insurrection, world war 3.

What a time to be alive! I guess we can look back historically and see we’ve gone through similar things and survived. I’ll just hold on to that for right now, so I don’t lose hope.
Oh yeah, everything is going to be ok eventually. I don't think this situation is the end of the world for the US, but it's going to suck. 2022 is going to be a rough year.

Cutie101
03-08-2022, 09:29 PM
Wow, I skip this thread for a few days and I see a few that are not getting it. Except AuroraJade. She made a fair point. Also, a couple of other people who got it right.

As someone who's on direct border with Ukraine and I know a bit of what politics is around and I will explain in simple words:
- Until 2019, Ukraine had only pro- russian presidents, that did anything to NOT have Ukraine joining NATO and European Union, because they were hand in hand with mother Russia. That's how Crimea got anexed so easily. People got tired of this bs and elected Zelenski. A fresh restart. Only that mother Rusia didn't like his western views and decided to invade him, before he makes any move.
- Because of that, Ukraine couldn't join NATO, since parts of it (Crimea) was in conflict. For a country to join NATO, it has to be free and not in conflict/ under ocupation of another region.
- Ukraine couldn't join EU because of same reasons, the ex goverment and everyone running the country that was pro russian, did everything to not meet the requirements to enter EU.


- NATO is a DEFENSIVE alliance. DEFENSIVE! Which means, not only that they can't take action for a country that's not even in the alliance, but the whole point of the alliance is to take defense, if any of the country within is being attacked. So stop saying NATO should do this and that, they CAN'T. They can only aid Ukraine with weapons and money, but they can't take action for that.

- Stop making this political and what president X and Y did more than 2 years ago. All the countries had different presidents, that had different views and did organize things differently, only Russia had same president for the past 20 years. Blaming ex presidents is useless. It's important to see how the current goverments are running things right now, during an actual war.
I am not a fan of Biden, but he is much more prefered than that Trump guy, because tht guy is overzelaous and god knows what would have happened now. The Biden guy, at least tries to NOT escalate things and his team waits patiently.

It's easy to comment from across the ocean and be a keyboard warrior and say US should just go in there and shoot everything, when you don't have chances to be erased if the mad man decides to press the red button. But I am HERE at the border and I don't want NATO to get involved because I fear my own life. This is not a videogame to react with guns and bombs, it's real life and seeing people fleeing and coming in here, not knowing where to go and what to do, is making my body ache. I only see what volunteers do here, helping people with food and clothes, volunteers sleeping in cars, coming from work to help. Imagine if the area gets bombed or gets military action...
Yes, tiptoeing around the whole situation, it's the best option right now, because this man has no consciousness. He didn't even respect his own promise to not bomb the civil evacuation ways and hospitals. He bombed exactly those. He's toxic and manipulative and anything you breath is used against you. Anything been said when the war threat started, in January (ok it's been since September, but made it to mass media recently), has only helped him turn every word against everyone and declare himself offended. HE simply used those poor reasons, to start a war. Remember they are propaganda and massive liars, they said they are doing a military exercise in the begining, remember?

This is REAL LIFE and not politics and not a debate of what X and Y president did or shoud do. They do it perfectly now, being cautious. We, the countries around Ukraine are doing our best to help the refugees, the whole Europe and even US does a great job, helping Ukraine with weapons and money. It's the most legal thing you can do, to not trigger the mad man even more. It's a sensitive and complicate situation, especially when you're near the bomb and biggest nuclear plant in the Eastern Europe.
My family has been affected by the radiations, a relative's of mine first child was an abomination (my family won't speak much about this traumatic event). Some of you have no idea what true FEAR is. The tyroid cancer/ issues is a big thing around here, people are still affected by the radiations because many were just children when Chernobyl disaster happened and now they are in their 40's. Many have been exposed back then and many still suffer because of the effects.

moneybags
03-08-2022, 10:38 PM
^^^we should really let the people suffering have to most weight in these decisions.

I’m so sorry. It’s not about politics it’s about helping the suffering-in a perfect world that would be all any of us would care about.

rickdugan
03-09-2022, 03:04 AM
Cutie, I think we all understand why you're afraid. But are you really safer if Putin is allowed to slaughter Ukrainians and grind its cities down with only modest opposition from other countries? Do you really think he will be satisfied and just stop there forever? The leaders of Poland and Lithuania don't seem to think so, which is why they continue to push NATO to do more faster.

Also the Ukraine has a right to feel a bit betrayed right now. First we (the U.S.) convinced them to hand over their nuclear arsenal to Russia under a tri-party treaty that was supposed to prevent attacks like this. While this was 100% the right move and the treaty doesn't explicitly say that we will defend them, it does not seem that the U.S. has not been living up to the spirit of the agreement. The Ukraine has also been a friend to NATO over the years, not only as an active partner in a joint commission with NATO since 1997, but in more recent years participating in a number of joint operations with NATO.

We watched Putin slaughter countless Chechens and did nothing because it was arguably Russia sovereign territory. We watched Putin slaughter countless Georgians and still did nothing because it was far away and involved a country we did not have a relationship with.

Now we are watching Putin slaughtering the people of a country that is a good friend to NATO and arguably the U.S. and still we sit by. Sure we have done a bit more than nothing, but we refuse to do enough to even give them a fighting chance.

So now that Putin knows how little U.S. and NATO friendship means once he starts rattling his sword, who's next?

FrankieSkyPrivate
03-09-2022, 03:46 AM
I agree that it's tricky to involve NATO in this since they're a defensive alliance and Ukraine is literally not a member. The fact that Putin mentions NATO is not exactly reason enough to go in with military force. And if a military alliance is just going to get involved every time they get mentioned by Putin or another man with power and be some kind of world police then what's the point in being a member versus non-member? If you know they're going to get involved anyway there's really no reason to join. This is not twitter where you respond just because people mention you, like you get pinged so you start a war, out of the 30 or so member states I think a very low number is happy to start anything with nuclear Russia not only because of the potential negative effects but because of the fact that they're not actually bound by the agreement to do so.

About the risk of Putin invading other countries, like the ones he has threatened, I think in most cases the risk is very small. Him invading a NATO country seems very unlikely, I mean you never know but it does seem unlikely especially considering the scale of the military operation he intended this invasion to be. And yes Putin is threatening non members like Finland and Sweden, as he has done before. Russia has violated their airspace, as they have done before, Russia actually did the same thing to the Estonian airspace just before Estonia joined NATO. Putin is threatening countries now because that's what he usually does, always has, probably always will. So far it hasn't led to him invading all those countries he threatened. The fact that he now has invaded Ukraine could maybe even make it less likely for him to invade another country at the moment, because how keen is he right now to wage some kind of two front war or whatever, now that Ukraine is not going as well as he hoped and the economy is in shambles? Not very keen, is my guess.

Even if you think about Russia and NATO it's not so black and white, look at Norway for example. They have managed to be in NATO and cooperate to some extent with Russia simultaneously for years. It's not like you're in NATO now Russia hates you regardless of who you are, it's more about Ukraine in particular than NATO or the US or some random neutral countries wanting to join the club. Ukraine is a geo politically, economically and culturally important country for Russia to an extent that most other countries are not. Putin is making threats now left and right because that's how he does politics, I don't think he actually gives a fuck about most of those other countries when it comes down to it. And on top of that the threats have had a kind of counterproductive effect so far, considering that for example, Finland is taking NATO membership up for serious debate.

I agree that this issue between Ukraine and Russia goes way beyond the topic of just joining NATO. For Putin, Ukraine and Russia share a common blood, a common history, like brothers share a mother. And Putin feels Ukraine is betraying all of that, and the NATO discussion was the cathalist that turned the fire on and made Putin explote

AChildOfBoredom
03-09-2022, 05:52 AM
this is very petty. The back and forth where you misinterpret and carry on with what I was possibly unclear on, that turns into really a differing of beliefs; all the poking is gross.

What was misinterpreted? Because you didn’t point anything out or attempt to clarify, unless you’re counting that one time you changed what you had said in an earlier post. Call it poking if you wish, but you did do that.


I am really hoping this is personal to you in some way.

It is.


I could be real petty back if I wanted

You already have.


you seem just super dismissive of any new media, like fine, but I have read a ton and a lot of books are shit, especially political ones no matter their accreditation. So much thinktank nonsense, you have to and want to publish to succeed in academia. I like to watch, listen and read interviews with an author, check them out on the internet, its all good for me at least. You are out here insulting people.

I understand why you get that impression, but that’s not really it. It’s more the time and place, even if you suggested print publications. In the course of a discussion such as this one, we’re not going to wait a month between posts. Reading on your own without the intent of discussing it, there is no time crunch. So, you can take the time to follow up (or forward, because I am interested in getting a feel for the validity of a book before I commit to it). Back and forth on a forum, we’re not intending to wait weeks or even months between responses while we go through this, hence people in discussions, disputes, debates on social media, forums, what have you will post a five minute read and expect to continue it off of that. For example, your link about Afghanistan, the mujahadeen, and the Taliban… they want to come to a fast and convenient conclusion, so they narrow the scope down to achieve that. So they don’t into the history of things leading up to it, and so people come to a very narrow and lacking conclusion and are encouraged to do this. To set up a publishing house takes a lot of work. Anyone can start a blog, YouTube channel, etc. And a lot of things which shouldn’t have gained traction have because of this. Maybe the Internet not being an everyday thing for me growing up plays into this as well, but I am particularly wary of Internet- and television-based media. That being said, there are time I’ll use it when appropriate, e.g., the Javelin is a weapon system I’ve never had any dealings with, and it’s been pretty prominent lately, so I read about it on Wikipedia. Obviously I wouldn’t refer to Wikipedia or Reddit for advice on life altering decisions.


I am mid way through reading your post as I start my response. I'm gonna be editing it a ton before I final post so I don't make a mistake you will need to call me out on

Do keep in mind that the time stamp of your edit is visible, and we’re not talking about misspelled words, we’re talking about completely changing the context of what you said.


So far I am seeing you insult my intelligence multiple times, and act like I haven't stated over and over what Putin has done is disgusting.

No, I haven’t insulted or questioned your intelligence, just your notion that you think (maybe because I work a not glamorous blue collar job?) that I’m uneducated, or how you thought you were “educating” me about the Taliban after I had already given some indication that I knew of their origins. I’ve studied Afghanistan extensively from the Muslim conquests of the 8th - 10th Centuries to the present day. So, how am I supposed to feel when you ignore this and then post a five minute read like that’ll somehow negate the work I’ve put into studying that subject? Oh, and there’s more to say on this, because I read your entire post before replying, and you did it again.


I support the Ukrainian troops and even sanctions despite that I think they are cruel to the Russian people. Proving my previous post about needing a disclaimer every time someone wants to give context to the situation that implies America did clearly bad things without being accused of being eternally devoted to Mother Russia or something.

You kinda watered that down. Literally, in a topic about a Russian invasion of Ukraine, you went off the rails about “USA bad”. Went in a completely different direction from the topic. Even referred to the Ukrainian military as “the eventual Taliban”.


I am now the second person on this thread to call you out on being hostile.

Cry me a river?


all you prove that you have no idea about theory and are very defensive about this one issue.

First, I was never questioned about theory, so where you’re getting this shit from? Whine about, “You’re insulting my intelligence” then turn around with some shit like this?

Second, I’m not being defensive. You’re the one who got defensive over a post which wasn’t about you or directed at you. Which, fine, I can understand where I didn’t make that clear. But then continued to after I told you it wasn’t about you. I’m just trying to figure out what your deal is.


you have had an issue with me for awhile

No, none at all. Even now, you did do one thing which kissed me off, but it’s not before this point - it’s after.

Forgive me if I skip ahead a bit, but I have to balance this out with being at work, so I have to kinda stitch it all together piece by piece.




I don’t think NATO wants Ukraine at all. Not in 94, 04, 14, or today. Politicians might, but military officials, not so much. Why would NATO want a country full of people who were content to be seen as practically Russians and feel such a bond with a country who never stopped seeing NATO as an adversary? Too much of a wild card. Were it not for less than fond histories involving the Soviet Union or even Imperial Russia and other Slavic nations, I’d expect Putin would push Pan-Slavism? Slavicism?… the same way Gaddaffi pushed for Pan-Arabism.

[quote]What you are describing is closer being a Liberal, and understanding community, that is great. I was a liberal for some of college, Obama disappointment did me in

If you think I was hostile before, my initial reaction to reading this… I had to step back and reevaluate this a couple times and give you the benefit of the doubt here.

To reiterate what I’ve said before, politics wasn’t the sole driving force behind those decisions.
If anything, the way this household actually operates would be a better indicator as far as that goes. Just an example of standing behind them. Now, can I live 100% by where I stand ideologically? No. This is the world I live in, and I have to adapt just like everyone else, else my only option would be to live like the Unabomber, and I do feel like that’s a bit too far. I live in the country I live in, I’m a part of the society I’m a part of, and that’s just how it is. Of course it could be worse, but it could also be better. So sometimes I end up doing things which don’t fully parallel my ideologies or even at times contradict them. Such is life.

I have seriously minced my words through all of that, but this needs to be said - I know what my ideologies and philosophies are. I know where I stand, I know where I am on the spectrum, and how I got there was a combination both of learning and of life, which includes war, seeing how the system treated others around me and how indifferent it was to their plight, dealings with people in this society, ranging from both the “just add water” ‘activist’ sorts to the pseudo-patriot hee-haws, and almost certainly swayed as well by the stories of those I’ve taken into my home, how my friend from the community was left with nothing after her husband had to be put in hospice and was still in debt, etc. And of the latter, it was actually people I’m inclined to see as ideological opponents who did much more for her than “my own people”. Which leaves me feeling conflicted, but not any less appreciative of what they did.

Forgive me for skipping over some parts, but I have a major CAN BUS failure on an almost $2 million machine to contend with which two FT3s have already been stumped by, and they need it back in service post haste.

Anyhow, why it’s personal to me isn’t anything secret. I have friends - people I’ve interacted with face-to-face and have spent time with - from both countries and I know three people over there right now who traveled to serve as foreign volunteers.

Zofia
03-09-2022, 07:51 AM
My thoughts:
1. The US, must stay out of the shooting war, fighting Russia all too easily leads to nuclear war. From which, we will prevail, but at an unacceptably high cost.
2. The Russians waited too long to invade. Spring is coming as is the Ukrainian mud. This war will grind on for a long time.
3. The Russians have a massive supply chain problem.
4. The Russians apparently don't read Alfred Thayer Mahan and his doctrine of economy of force, or they ignored Mahan. Can you imagine Chester Nimitz sending his forces all over the Pacific looking for Japanese forces to attack? No. He sat patiently with exactly the force he needed just northeast of Midway. When the Japanese came, he attacked and destroyed their carriers and their naval aviation. Japan never recovered.
5. The Russians apparently don't know their own civil engineering history. Because WWII was massively devastating to Russian and Ukrainian cities leaving millions of Russians and Ukranians homeless, the Soviet Union chose to build housing in cities. They also chose to build road and rail networks in through their cities. Thus, each Russian and Ukranian city is a road and rail hub. Moving anywhere else is difficult and invariably leads to a city where roads tangle up the efficient movement of supplies. Thus, each city is both a supply bottleneck and a well defended hard point that it is very difficult to move beyond.
6. The Russians are apparently oblivious to their own history. Ukraine caused the Germans no end of distress in WWII and the Soviets fought a magnificent war in depth there for the first two years of that war. The Soviets only managed to defeat the Germans in Ukraine later in the war because they had overwhelming forces and the Germans stupdly would not retreat. Zelinsky may not think he has the option of strategic withdrawl, but if he uses Ukraine's size to his advantage, and the lousy road network, he can drag this war out for a long time increasing the pressure on Russia to negotiate with him on reasonable terms.
7. Ukraine waited too long to arm every man, woman and child to establish a really effective resistance. But, they are making up for lost time and NATO/ the US are sending anti-tank weapons that really will make the cost of holding Ukraine very high. (We did that in Afghanistan to the Soviets, so we're not new to this sort of warfare.)
8. Ukraine, by evacuating so many of its women and children to the west is playing the long game very effectively.
9. The west (NATO, the EU and USA) have very quickly wised up and united to face this Russian threat. Vladimir Putin did what a long list of U.S. presidents could not do, he convinced the Germans to stop disarming themselves.
10. Ukraine is winning the social media war. It helps that their President is a skilled communicator. Plus, who doesn't like Paddington the Bear? (Zelinsky voiced Paddington in Ukrainian.)

My thoughts,
Z

Eric Stoner
03-09-2022, 08:26 AM
Russia wasn't our main adversary in 2012 and the price of gas isn't anywhere near $7 a gallon. The avg. price is $4.17. The only way gas would be any cheaper than it is now, is if our government chose not to do anything about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I'd rather pay more for gas.

Oh yes they were and Oh yes it is.

Putin served notice as far back as 2007 at the Munich Security conference that he was anti-Western. He repeatedly said that the dissolution of the old ?Soviet Union was a "tragedy". Since then he has embarked on an adventurous program and policy of Russian expansion.

Gas is currently selling in California and other Pacific states at or near $7 a gallon. In N.Y. it is well over $4 a gallon and projected to go to at least $ 6 a gallon. Thanks Joe. Let's Go Brandon lol to keep from crying.

Eric Stoner
03-09-2022, 08:27 AM
I wonder how high gas prices are going to get. I'm guessing it won't be long before the cost of food and other goods start increasing too.

Food prices are already going UP. Wheat prices alone are up 70% since the Russians invaded. The costs of transport plus feed and fertilizer have all been going up. Thanks Vlad. Thanks Joe.

Eric Stoner
03-09-2022, 08:31 AM
In a new twist, Poland just announced that it will be providing its MIGs to the U.S. to distribute as it sees fit. A snippet below from the WSJ article:


"The Polish government on Tuesday said the planes “are ready to deploy—immediately and free of charge.” The aircraft would be flown to the American Ramstein air base in Germany, where they would be at the disposal of the U.S., Poland’s foreign ministry said in a statement."

The U.S. had been claiming all along that it was a Polish decision and then, when that ridiculous claim rang false, started a stalling song and dance about having to figure out the logistical challenges of replacing those planes for Poland. It seems that Poland was tired of being blamed so instead found a way to pass the buck back to the U.S.

But even more from a Polish diplomat involved in this transfer:


“We wanted the certainty that in six months or two years everyone will be comfortable that this was a NATO idea, a Western idea...”

“...We can act on behalf of NATO, but we need support in doing so. And not every Western country feels safe or comfortable with that. What we would really like to avoid is providing jets to Ukraine and then being left alone because it was ‘our call.’”

Reading between the lines, it sounds like Poland wanted to provide these jets all along, but was afraid that its NATO Allies would use this as an excuse down the road to ditch their treaty obligations if Russia attacked. Given everything I've seen from NATO's Western leaders so far I don't blame Poland for being concerned.

Let's see what excuse this Administration comes up with now if they choose to withhold these fighters.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-to-make-mig-29-combat-jetsavailable-to-u-s-11646767232?mod=livecoverage_web

I heard that our wonderful woke Pentagon put the kibosh on the transfer of MIG's to Ukraine.

In fairness , there are sound reasons to believe that this would be step too far. Arguably they constitute "offensive" weapons.

Eric Stoner
03-09-2022, 08:34 AM
Cutie, I think we all understand why you're afraid. But are you really safer if Putin is allowed to slaughter Ukrainians and grind its cities down with only modest opposition from other countries? Do you really think he will be satisfied and just stop there forever? The leaders of Poland and Lithuania don't seem to think so, which is why they continue to push NATO to do more faster.

Also the Ukraine has a right to feel a bit betrayed right now. First we (the U.S.) convinced them to hand over their nuclear arsenal to Russia under a tri-party treaty that was supposed to prevent attacks like this. While this was 100% the right move and the treaty doesn't explicitly say that we will defend them, it does not seem that the U.S. has not been living up to the spirit of the agreement. The Ukraine has also been a friend to NATO over the years, not only as an active partner in a joint commission with NATO since 1997, but in more recent years participating in a number of joint operations with NATO.

We watched Putin slaughter countless Chechens and did nothing because it was arguably Russia sovereign territory. We watched Putin slaughter countless Georgians and still did nothing because it was far away and involved a country we did not have a relationship with.

Now we are watching Putin slaughtering the people of a country that is a good friend to NATO and arguably the U.S. and still we sit by. Sure we have done a bit more than nothing, but we refuse to do enough to even give them a fighting chance.

So now that Putin knows how little U.S. and NATO friendship means once he starts rattling his sword, who's next?

Ukraine has every right to feel betrayed. They were. By Bush The Dim , OBAMA , to a lesser extent You Know Who and now Biden.

Not only did we make them give up their nukes in exchange for certain , mostly implied , guarantees but all four of our recent Presidents limited sales of conventional weapons to Ukraine to try and curry favor with Russia.
Especially Obama and even AFTER Russia seized The Crimea.

trustfundkiller
03-09-2022, 09:41 AM
Food prices are already going UP. Wheat prices alone are up 70% since the Russians invaded. The costs of transport plus feed and fertilizer have all been going up. Thanks Vlad. Thanks Joe.
This is just the beginning. Food prices will continue to go up.

Eric Stoner
03-09-2022, 10:21 AM
This is just the beginning. Food prices will continue to go up.

Yep. Thanks Joe. Thanks Vlad. Let's go Brandon. Let's go Putin.

rickdugan
03-09-2022, 11:06 AM
I heard that our wonderful woke Pentagon put the kibosh on the transfer of MIG's to Ukraine.

In fairness , there are sound reasons to believe that this would be step too far. Arguably they constitute "offensive" weapons.

Yup, and quickly too. Once again proving that we might care about women and children being slaughtered, but not really that much.

What makes it even worse though is all the lies this Administration told before finally being forced to admit that it did not want to send the planes.

First there was Blinken, who claimed that Poland had the "green light" and that it was completely Poland's decision.

Then, figuring that nobody truly believed that lie, they then went into a song and dance about how they had to evaluate strategic options to replace those planes for Poland.

Finally, only after Poland refused to support the lies and backed them into a corner did they finally admit the truth - sort of. Even then they had to lie a bit more by falsely attributing it to the Pentagon when we all know that the military does not make foreign policy decisions - the President does.

I can only imagine what our allies must think about us when they see us behave like this, especially after what recently happened in Afghanistan.

Eric Stoner
03-09-2022, 11:22 AM
Yup, and quickly too. Once again proving that we might care about women and children being slaughtered, but not really that much.

What makes it even worse though is all the lies this Administration told before finally being forced to admit that it did not want to send the planes.

First there was Blinken, who claimed that Poland had the "green light" and that it was completely Poland's decision.

Then, figuring that nobody truly believed that lie, they then went into a song and dance about how they had to evaluate strategic options to replace those planes for Poland.

Finally, only after Poland refused to support the lies and backed them into a corner did they finally admit the truth - sort of. Even then they had to lie a bit more by falsely attributing it to the Pentagon when we all know that the military does not make foreign policy decisions - the President does.

I can only imagine what our allies must think about us when they see us behave like this, especially after what recently happened in Afghanistan.

Hmmm. I get you but I am wondering if it is "lying" or just disorganization and incoherence. Granted, Brandon's bunch have set new standards for mendacity. Pick an issue and you'll get at least two, if not more, varied and often contradictory positions. And in fairness it is a difficult and delicate situation that would be tough for anyone to navigate.

Some will not like this but I think it is best if Putin does NOT "lose". Huh ? What ? How can I say that ? Zelensky said yesterday that Ukraine does not want to join NATO. Russia has said that they are willing to keep their Russian majority regions ( where Russians and Ukrainians have been shooting at each other since 2014 btw ) and be satisfied. This would enable Putin to "declare victory and get out. " The sticking point is to get them to withdraw from everywhere else. For now , I don't want to see Putin backed into a corner he can't get out of without dramatic escalation.

More importantly I am leery of U.S. and NATO incremental steps toward a full blown shooting war with Russia. Some nitwits are seriously trying to portray the Russian military as a paper tiger and saying we could win a nuclear war with Russia. ARE THEY SERIOUS ? What is wrong with them ?

I don't care what the polls say. Most people do not understand what a "No Fly Zone" means or what would be involved. It is an Act of War. Period !

rickdugan
03-09-2022, 11:43 AM
Hmmm. I get you but I am wondering if it is "lying" or just disorganization and incoherence. Granted, Brandon's bunch have set new standards for mendacity. Pick an issue and you'll get at least two, if not more, varied and often contradictory positions. And in fairness it is a difficult and delicate situation that would be tough for anyone to navigate.

Some will not like this but I think it is best if Putin does NOT "lose". Huh ? What ? How can I say that ? Zelensky said yesterday that Ukraine does not want to join NATO. Russia has said that they are willing to keep their Russian majority regions ( where Russians and Ukrainians have been shooting at each other since 2014 btw ) and be satisfied. This would enable Putin to "declare victory and get out. " The sticking point is to get them to withdraw from everywhere else. For now , I don't want to see Putin backed into a corner he can't get out of without dramatic escalation.

More importantly I am leery of U.S. and NATO incremental steps toward a full blown shooting war with Russia. Some nitwits are seriously trying to portray the Russian military as a paper tiger and saying we could win a nuclear war with Russia. ARE THEY SERIOUS ? What is wrong with them ?

I don't care what the polls say. Most people do not understand what a "No Fly Zone" means or what would be involved. It is an Act of War. Period !

I'm going to run with "lying." Frankly IMHO it's pretty obvious that they don't want to send the planes but also didn't want to be blamed for the decision.

I hear you on the rest, but I don't buy for a second that he's crazy enough to start a nuclear war over this. Everything he has done to this point, if you look at it dispassionately and as I've previously outlined, has been finely choreographed. The only thing I don't think he anticipated was the relative unpreparedness of his own military and the amount of resistance they would encounter. If he had finished this quickly the West wouldn't have been shamed, by two weeks of streaming images and pleas, into sending more weapons and doubling down on sanctions. But even still Putin had our measure as to where our stopping point would be.

Why in the world would Putin want to stop now? With the Ukraine's inability to contest the skies and conduct aerial strikes on Russia's convoys, Putin has the luxury of time to eventually circle every major city and pound each one into rubble. IMHO unless we do more to balance things out, like give the Ukraine those damned planes, he's not going to stop until he has destroyed enough of the country to be able to demand that a puppet government be installed. At that point the sanctions will be lifted as part of the negotiation and he'll have everything he really wanted.

Eric Stoner
03-09-2022, 12:06 PM
Maybe , just maybe it is dawning on Putin what a takeover of Ukraine would ultimately cost. Years of hostile occupation coupled with years of sanctions.
It seems clear that Putin underestimated the Ukrainians and overestimated his own military.

Djoser
03-09-2022, 12:30 PM
Let's go Brandon.

Everyone else I've seen posting this on Facebook are basically illiterate. You're smarter than this, I think.

Djoser
03-09-2022, 12:39 PM
...I don't buy for a second that he's crazy enough to start a nuclear war over this. Everything he has done to this point, if you look at it dispassionately and as I've previously outlined, has been finely choreographed...Putin has the luxury of time to eventually circle every major city and pound each one into rubble.

'Finely choreographed'? A week long, 40 mile traffic jam stuck a few kilometers outside Kiev? Kiev is a few hours drive from the Belarus border; if the Russian military was any good, they'd have taken it in the first few days.

And yes, he IS crazy enough to start a nuclear war, he's already been making threats about it. If he's about to lose power, he'll do it.

The guy has lost his shit. He should never have invaded at all. Now he's stuck with a war he cannot win, with an army that doesn't want to fight, an occupied population in the millions that will not give up, and a home population that is already willing to risk getting the shit kicked out them for protesting. When more Russian boys die--and they will--that's just going to get worse. Sure he might take Kiev in another week or two, but how the fuck is he going to HOLD it?

Djoser
03-09-2022, 12:41 PM
Yep. Thanks Joe. Thanks Vlad. Let's go Brandon. Let's go Putin. You left someone out. Far more responsible for this fucking mess than Joe. And I am not a Joe fan.

Eric Stoner
03-09-2022, 12:51 PM
You left someone out. Far more responsible for this fucking mess than Joe. And I am not a Joe fan.

Obama ? Merkel ? Please don't try to blame this mess on "You Know Who". Sorry. Won't wash except that he DID restrict arms sales to Ukraine. Like his 3 immediate predecessors.

rickdugan
03-09-2022, 12:53 PM
'Finely choreographed'? A week long, 40 mile traffic jam stuck a few kilometers outside Kiev? Kiev is a few hours drive from the Belarus border; if the Russian military was any good, they'd have taken it in the first few days.

And yes, he IS crazy enough to start a nuclear war, he's already been making threats about it. If he's about to lose power, he'll do it.

The guy has lost his shit. He should never have invaded at all. Now he's stuck with a war he cannot win, with an army that doesn't want to fight, an occupied population in the millions that will not give up, and a home population that is already willing to risk getting the shit kicked out them for protesting. When more Russian boys die--and they will--that's just going to get worse. Sure he might take Kiev in another week or two, but how the fuck is he going to HOLD it?

DJ, I'm not talking about the military operation itself. We agree that he was mistaken about how easy it would be. I'm talking about everything leading up to it. To recap:


I hear that, but I don't see this as crazy or erratic. Indeed I see this as cold and calculated timing. Russia has always wanted Ukraine back in the fold. Indeed it thinks about Ukraine almost the same way that China thinks about Taiwan.

IMO annexing Crimea in 2014 was a test run. He got away with it, but it was pretty clear at that time that the U.S. and Europe were going to consider more extreme responses (including truly severe sanctions) if he went further. So he stopped.

Since then he has continued to rebuild and modernize Russia's military while also fostering increased European dependence on Russian natural gas. Now, with it's military ready and Europe docile because it is now afraid to lose it's access to Russian fuel, all he needed was to be sure that the U.S. would not react too drastically.

Trump probably wouldn't have cared about Europe's mixed feelings if Putin tried this on his watch. He might have also sent even more serious military hardware to Ukraine on top of the javelin missiles he did send. Responses like a true fossil fuel embargo and being kicked off the SWFT banking system (which the Trump Administration did to Iran) would have been truly devastating to Russia. So Putin waited.

Now we have an Administration that prefers a multi-lateral and multi-national response to aggression. I'm not opining as to whether this is good or bad, but it means that other variables come into play. Europe does not support truly severe sanctions because of the pain it would also experience as a result and the current U.S. Administration is not inclined to bulldoze this stuff through unilaterally.

Putin has been testing the waters for weeks by building up troops on the border and engaging in meetings with various world leaders. You can be sure that he was using those moments to assess the likely extent of the potential responses to an aggressive move. Once he became certain that the combined US/EU response would be manageable, that's all she wrote.

And then to add, just as it looked NATO might consider more serious help to the Ukraine once civilian casualties started, he whispers "nuclear" and we become frozen, even as the civilian casualties (including a children's hospital today) continue to pile up.

So yes, IMHO every move has been carefully planned and times. I'm sure he has a plan for a future puppet government as well.

Eric Stoner
03-09-2022, 12:55 PM
'Finely choreographed'? A week long, 40 mile traffic jam stuck a few kilometers outside Kiev? Kiev is a few hours drive from the Belarus border; if the Russian military was any good, they'd have taken it in the first few days.

And yes, he IS crazy enough to start a nuclear war, he's already been making threats about it. If he's about to lose power, he'll do it.

The guy has lost his shit. He should never have invaded at all. Now he's stuck with a war he cannot win, with an army that doesn't want to fight, an occupied population in the millions that will not give up, and a home population that is already willing to risk getting the shit kicked out them for protesting. When more Russian boys die--and they will--that's just going to get worse. Sure he might take Kiev in another week or two, but how the fuck is he going to HOLD it?

The Ukrainians have been VERY smart with that convoy. Rather than attack it directly they are going after supply trucks carrying food , fuel , ammo and even spare tires. That is the big reason it has been stuck in the Ukrainian mud.

I don't know if Putin is crazy enough to use nukes and I do not want to find out.