View Full Version : Interesting Electoral Statistics

11-11-2004, 08:27 AM
"Bush remained extremely strong with the same culturally conservative groups that made up the core of his coalition in 2000.

In the national Times survey, he won nearly three-fifths of rural voters and married voters, and slightly more than three-fifths of gun owners. Kerry, conversely, ran up big margins with singles, urban voters, and those who didn't own guns.

Most strikingly, just as in 2000, church attendance proved a far better predictor of the vote than income.

Kerry ran well among voters earning less than $40,000 annually. But after that, voters' preference didn't change much as their income rose: Kerry and Bush ran about even among voters earning more than $100,000 annually.

By sharp contrast, Bush won nearly two-thirds of voters who attended church once a week or more; those who attended church less often, or never, gave Kerry about three-fifths of their vote. Among white voters who attended church at least once a week, Bush won more than 70% of the vote.

If Bush benefited from mobilizing his socially conservative base, Kerry was boosted by a big turnout among the new voters his campaign targeted. About one in nine of those who cast ballots were new voters, and they gave Kerry a solid majority.

These first-time voters were much more negative than the electorate overall on the country's direction — and, the Times Poll found, much more eager than all voters to reverse Bush's policy direction.

Most of those new voters were people ages 18 to 29; their share of the electorate increased from just under one in six last time, to just over one in five in 2004.

And though young voters have usually divided in presidential races in numbers similar to the nation overall, this time they broke much more sharply for Kerry than older voters.

Some other familiar divides in the electorate were less pronounced.

The gender gap between men and women was modest both in the national Times survey and in the big three battleground state exit polls. The Times Poll found that Bush succeeded at one of his strategists' top goals during the past four years, to increase his vote among Latinos.

One of the most intriguing trends was the increased tendency of voters to divide along cultural rather than economic lines.

Kerry improved on Gore's showing from 2000 among voters with a college education; and even though Kerry stressed themes of middle class economic populism, Bush carried a majority of voters without college degrees, the survey found.

Relative to 2000, Bush's gains were especially pronounced among married women without college degrees, who have been receptive both to his peace through strength and conservative social messages.


11-11-2004, 11:25 AM
"Bush's gains were especially pronounced among married women without college degrees"

I wonder how many of that cross section of voters is a working woman ?

I also wonder how many of those voters have never worked outside the home?

Btw- I'm not trying say anything bad about homemakers, I am one now myself-- so dont go there..... I'm just curious as to what life experiences might affect these particular type of voters.