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FBR
11-07-2005, 04:33 PM
I think this is the second or third time Ive resurrected this thread. Sorry about that ::)

Gasoline here just dipped under 2 bucks a gallon at a few of the no-name stations. I assume the biggies will be moving in that direction soon. Its nowhere near what it was a year ago however.

I'm not complaining or anything, especially considering my un-PC gas guzzler's mileage. $50 for a fill up instead of $75 works for me. But dammit a little voice keeps telling me we are being played.

FBR

Melonie
11-07-2005, 04:40 PM
But dammit a little voice keeps telling me we are being played.

Oh, we're being played all right ... especially in New York



no wonder most New Yorkers anywhere near the state line buy their gas in New Jersey !

former_LV_dancer
11-07-2005, 07:18 PM
Oh, we're being played all right ... especially in New York

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/06/pf/taxes/gas_tax/

no wonder most New Yorkers anywhere near the state line buy their gas in New Jersey !


Yep, living in NYC 90% of the time we fill up in NJ or PA. The savings adds up. My bf is on the road alot, he hits the gas stations before he comes back into the city.

kitana
11-14-2005, 01:45 AM
As of this morning, gas here is $1.98 a gallon

So I can't complain as of yet, but they year isn't over either....

FBR
11-15-2005, 04:38 PM
Can any of you economic gurus explain why the the cost of diesel has remained very high (well over 3 bucks a gallon here in Ohio) while gasoline has dropped a dollar or so per gallon over the last month? Right now we are right at $2 plus or minus a nickle or so. Maybe it is free market but I have to believe a large portion of this disparity is politics. Consumers watch the cost of gasoline every day and have been screaming bloody murder for months and the politians listen. OTOH, most of us have gasoline motivated automobiles and dont give a shit about diesel. Who cares if the truckers have to pay 3 bucks a gallon...I dont drive a big rig. Yet these higher operating costs for the transportation industry are no doubt being passed along to the consumer in the form of increased prices rather than direct in your face charges (other than fuel surcharges from UPS etc but consumers dont see those...only businesses). It seems to me once again the average Joe and Jane American is being bamboozled and played for a chump.

FBR

Melonie
11-15-2005, 05:02 PM
an any of you economic gurus explain why the the cost of diesel has remained very high (well over 3 bucks a gallon here in Ohio) while gasoline has dropped a dollar or so per gallon over the last month? Right now we are right at $2 plus or minus a nickle or so. Maybe it is free market but I have to believe a large portion of this disparity is politics. Consumers watch the cost of gasoline every day and have been screaming bloody murder for months and the politians listen. OTOH, most of us have gasoline motivated automobiles and dont give a shit about diesel.

Actually, I'm told that high diesel prices are a by-product of 'raping' residents of Northeastern states who depend on heating oil to get them through the winter. Diesel and heating oil are essentially distilled by one process, while gasoline is distilled using a different process, and both processes can't occur at the same refinery at the same time. With all 50 states bitching, the priority was obviously on distilling gasoline which left heating oil and diesel in short supply. But now that the heating season is getting into full swing, and now that the oil companies have managed to 'rape' Northeastern homeowners for their first fuel oil tank fillup at least, more refineries will undoubtedly begin to switch over to heating oil and diesel production versus gasoline. This should prevent gasoline prices from dropping further and allow heating oil and diesel prices to come down as the shortage is gradually relieved.

montythegeek
11-15-2005, 06:18 PM
As a former/currently part time oil analyst, I can tell youwhy gasoline and heating oil are moving in different amounts. It is a very basic supply and demand situation. Gasoline and heating oil(also known as a high-sulpur diesel) are made from the same ingredient but you cannot turn one into the other.

Crude goes into the catalytic cracker which split crude into a lot of pieces ranging from tar to military aviation fuel, with gasoline and middle distilates (heating oil and diesel fuel) at the middle to higher end. You can tinker with the mix of outputs a little (for a cost) but after you reach that margin it gets prohibitively expensive. The changeover of production mix is why gasoline goes up in the spring and fall and fuel oil goes up in the summer and winter.

When Katrina and Rita hit and shut down refineries it was right near the switchpoint to making more diesel/heating oil, so the usual September=early Novemebr inventoy build was short circuited. so diesel.ho inventories are lean.
Soubt me --go to DOC's this week in petroleum and clcick on the inventory chart for distilates this week in petroleum.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

Furtheremore when the IEA sent supplies to help out they sent crude and gasoline--not distillates, so gasoline inventories have recovered but not distillates. This cemented a wedge in the prices between the two which normally happens, but not this much or wide.

Since wholesale stocks are lean, heating oil dealers are widening margins too in the face of uncertain winter weather. People will not drive before they freeze their kiddies so gas is more price sensitive than heating oil. Furthmore diesel (low sulphur distillates) has a sharply growing demand since all that stuff from Asia is getting to stores on trucks because it is too late to send it by train and airplane fuel is in even tighter supply.

This is not a conspiracy--both are traded in NY Harbor on the NYMEX http://www.nymex.com/index.aspx
Both contracts are for 12/05 delivery.

Now if you want a true conspiracy, look to the local stations colluding to keep gasoline margins high since the NY harbor price + retail margin for gasoline is very wide, when as the TWIP article describes the retail price should be close to $2.15 on average and some stations are still at $2.39 around here.

Gas buyer hint--for the next few months buy at independent stations like conveniece stores rather the big oil companies. Gas at a Hess station 5 miles from here is sub $2 per gallon (according to gasbuddy) and the local "name brands" are $2.35-$2.39 and resisiting passing along the price declines. These are not company-owned stores but indy-dealers of national names. I can make a damngood prima-facia case that they are colluding, since when a spread opened up a few weeks ago, they converged to the middle rather than a lower, more market-justified price.

kitana
11-23-2005, 06:56 PM
To update a little, it's currently $1.91 here.

Oh and thanks you two for the clarification on diesel. My dad has a diesel and is really complaining about the difference.

Dielsel is about $2.51 a gallon here.

FBR
11-27-2005, 03:26 PM
Oh and thanks you two for the clarification on diesel. My dad has a diesel and is really complaining about the difference.



I still think its mostly politics rather than market forces. Monty and Melonie, dont confuse me with the facts ;) Seriously, thanks for the great info.

BTW, I paid $1.87 yesterday. But I cheated and bought regular. My Escalade has a tummy ache but its still running.

FBR

Deni
11-27-2005, 03:27 PM
^ Dude...that sucks. We're still flirting with the $2.00 mark. I want it to get under it and STAY under it (at least as long as possible).

FBR
11-27-2005, 03:38 PM
^ Dude...that sucks. We're still flirting with the $2.00 mark. I want it to get under it and STAY under it (at least as long as possible).

Deni, one would think that Texas would have cheaper prices than Ohio :confused:

FBR

Deni
11-27-2005, 03:42 PM
Deni, one would think that Texas would have cheaper prices than Ohio :confused:

FBR

Dunno what that's about. Maybe it's got stuff to do with the hurricanes. After gas went up down here, it took its sweet time going back down. I know there are still a few stations here that are still at $2.01 or $2.00 even, and we didn't even get under $2.00 until last week. I think the cheapest in town right now is about $1.94

Melonie
11-27-2005, 06:23 PM
look at the bright side ... in New York regular gasoline is still over $2.50 - thanks in no small part to the 42 cents per gallon state gas tax (on top of the 18 cent per gallon federal gas tax)!

Deni
11-27-2005, 07:04 PM
True! I guess I won't say any more then! Not like it's even a big deal for me anyway- I barely use a 1/4 tank of gas to get to work and back for the whole week! :P

proMarket
11-27-2005, 07:51 PM
I'm all diesel...50 mpg here...let the price rise !

Higher prices = more interest in fuel economy and conservation, more technology development and small business growth in those areas

montythegeek
11-28-2005, 05:53 AM
Deni, one would think that Texas would have cheaper prices than Ohio :confused:

FBRIt ususually does. The difference is that the imported gas is coming to the most liquid spot market point in the US-NY harbor. That is why the East coast and especially from Va to Maine has lower prices. The pipeline delivery system works in one direction-Sw to N-NE so the gas delivery of imports is limited to what can be economically delivered by tanker.

MArgins between crude and NY HArbor are now below last year (after Ivan) and a 5-10 cents pop up in gas prices in the East is likely between now and early 2006 as gasoline imports drift back toward normal and patterns revert to normal as the last big refinery still out comes back. Since they weill be focussing on distilates for winter gas supplies will tighten a bit but it should be just a small bump.

Niceguy
01-30-2006, 12:56 AM
Time to bring this one that I started a long time ago back, Gas now in winter is still $2.40/ gal. Looks like another $3.00 (or more) summer gas season. The only good news
(if you needing heating oil) is that the refineries are still producing heating oil not gasoline. We've had a very very warm winter. Hit 60 degrees in Chicago near Lake Michigan two weeks ago. It was 52 degrees F today which is very warm for January.

Any one seeing the upward movement in gas prices yet?

Melonie
01-30-2006, 05:02 AM
this pricing, unfortunately, could change overnight if the Iran or Palestine or Nigeria situations heats up. COMEX oil has been creeping back to near record levels lately ($69 this AM vs $70 at the height of Katrina pipeline outages).

TarynJolie
01-30-2006, 09:54 AM
Any one seeing the upward movement in gas prices yet?

Yes. I have seen them go up a few cents every week for over a month now. We are buying a hybrid after our move.

I don't think it is just a coincidence that phase one of declaring war on Iran is starting just as our gas were beginning top level out after Katrina. We'll be seeing more record profits for the oil companies and their subsidiaries soon too.

FBR
01-30-2006, 07:26 PM
$2.09 one day. $2.40 two days later.

I've pretty much given up trying to figure it out and just baby my 6.0 liter V8 for maximum mileage :shrug:

FBR

TarynJolie
01-30-2006, 07:28 PM
Ok, FBR just made me feel a little better about my local price fluctuations

FBR
01-30-2006, 08:00 PM
Ok, FBR just made me feel a little better about my local price fluctuations

I have a Cobalt in the family stable but I dont like riding that close to the ground. I did it for a few weeks and it sucked.

My lease is up in Feb '07. I hope by then Cadillac has cylinder deactivation available on the Escalades.

FBR

Niceguy
01-31-2006, 12:31 PM
You might be the last purchaser of a Cadillac. I guess leasing it makes a great deal of sense in this instance. If you buy it and GM declares bankruptcy, the extended warranty is useless... just like the retirement health benefit promise (which is not a contract unless
you are a union worker), the defined beneift pension amount will reset to the US guaranteed mount of about $42,000 if it is above that, and any 401 k money in GM stock witll be worthless causing the decline in 401 k benefits. They can't in good conscience
argue in bankruptcy court that if they are throwing all the contracts out that
the warranties stay. I recall the airlines kept the frequent flyer mile proggrams but devalued the mileage points by various devices.