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He then states that civilizations proceed through the following stages:
1. Mixture - different societies come into contact and produce a society with an outlook different from any of the parts.
2. Gestation - the period of time between the mixing of the different societies and the expansion of the civilization.
3. Expansion - the surplus generated by the society is invested in activities that benefit the civilization. This can include an increase in knowledge, increase in area, technological advancements that increase efficiency, etc. Civilizations have different instruments of expansion. He calls a social organization or unit an instrument if it meets social needs.
4. Age of Conflict - The rate of increase using the social instrument slows down which brings interesting times. The instrument can be reformed or a new instrument consistent with the civilization's outlook can circumvent the old instrument. If reform is achieved, a new age of expansion begins. If the vested interests of the previous instument of expansion increasingly consume resources while serving no social needs, Quigley says that the instrument has then become an institution. Expansion can continue, but it is at the expense of neighbors, which leads to imperialist wars. When the vested interests have crushed all internal opposition, the next stage appears.
5. Universal Empire - typically a state or politcal unit on the peripheral of the civilization gains power over the whole civilization. The illusion of a golden age appears. The social organization remains stagnant.
6. Decay - lack of belief in the civilization's outlook or inability to meet needs of the people leads to people opting out of the system.
7. Invasion - external forces disrupt the civilization's social organization and it is unable or unwilling to defend itself. That spells the end of the civilization.
The civilizations that he analyzes are the following: Mesopotamian, Caananite and Minoan, Classical, and Western.