Chart of next month - Options Put / Call Ratio versus S&P Index
http://www.wallstreetbear.com/image/...c1222intra.JPG
Is the third time the 'charm', or will we get yet another cycle of decline in the S & P ?
Re: Chart of next month - Options Put / Call Ratio versus S&P Index
I found this commentary to be interesting
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=3121
Re: Chart of next month - Options Put / Call Ratio versus S&P Index
^^^ while I'm not a disciple of Elliot Wave theory, your article does make a number of extremely important observations. Among them ...
- 'Inflation is a hidden tax upon the stupid' !
While the author makes this point in relation to supposedly equal stock market 'numeric values' in past years not actually being equal in terms of 'purchasing power value', it applies more than ever in these times of unprecedented US dollar debts / interest rates / freshly printed dollars. US dollar centric thinkers are likely to be in for a huge surprise next year when they discover, for example, that a 10% increase in US dollars represents a 20% decrease in 'purchasing power value'. In other words, the days of the US dollar being the world's reserve currency are coming to an end, and those that still cling to the US dollar as a valid 'yardstick' do so at their own peril.
- the author subscribes to the theory that this third instance of a low put / call ratio will be followed by a third decline in stock market indexes ... apparently based on EWA and other technical indicators. Personally, I agree with that 'prediction', but based on fundamentals rather than technicals. The author even calls for a short term 'top' to materialize by early January, with the markets then heading much lower in a big hurry. I'm not sure I agree with that specific timing (due to the predictable effects of new IRA / 401k money), but I certainly agree that the recent lackluster Santa Claus rally has nothing but hope (and freshly printed FED dollars) behind it.
- the author is calling for yet another pullback in gold prices, again apparently based on technicals. Personally, I also agree with this 'prediction' in the short term ... but based on foreign central bank action to prop the US dollar rather than fundamentals. The author goes further in predicting a near term buying opportunity for physical gold as this price pullback materializes. Personally, I'm down with that as well !!!