weekend commentary - US unemployment realities starting to show through
(snip)"Fewer states add jobs as recovery sputters along
Fewer states add jobs, people leave the work force as labor market remains weak (snip)
(snip)"In a reversal of earlier gains, more states lost jobs than added them in November, signaling that hiring is occurring only sporadically around the country.
Unemployment rates dropped in 36 states and the District of Columbia, but that trend appeared to reflect more people leaving the work force. Unemployed people who stop looking for jobs out of frustration aren't counted in the labor force.
Friday's Labor Department report underscored that employers have yet to ramp up hiring, and many Americans can't find work. The number of people jobless for at least six months rose last month to 5.9 million, according to a separate report released earlier this month. And the average length of unemployment exceeds 28 weeks, the longest on records dating to 1948.
In all, 19 states added jobs in November, down from 28 in October. Thirty-one states and the District of Columbia suffered a net loss of jobs.
Labor said there were statistically important employment changes in four states. All four showed job losses. They are Michigan, Nevada, Mississippi and Hawaii.
The states that reported the largest jobs gains were Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Arizona and Iowa. Those shifts were not considered statistically important as a proportion of those states' large work forces.
Signs emerged in some states of people rejoining the work force to seek jobs as the economy slowly improves. Of the eight states where unemployment rose, five added jobs. All but one saw their work forces grow, indicating more people were looking for work.
The states that saw their labor forces grow faster than they could add jobs were Ohio, South Carolina, Georgia and Idaho.
The figures for jobs and unemployment don't always match because they come from separate reports. The unemployment rate is calculated from a survey of households. The jobs count reflects a survey of businesses.
Similarly, unemployment rates can drop when people give up looking for jobs. Of the seven states with statistically important drops in unemployment rates, five saw their labor forces shrink. They were Connecticut, Kansas, Kentucky, New York and Pennsylvania.
In Nebraska and Texas, unemployment fell even while people entered the labor force, a sign of relatively robust job markets.
In Texas, hiring was even across many sectors, including finance, professional and business services, education and health, hospitality and government. The only areas to lose jobs were construction; manufacturing; and trade, transportation and utilities.
Nebraska saw job growth in every sector except finance and hospitality, which declined slightly.
Florida was the only state whose unemployment rate rose significantly, to 11.5 percent from 11.3 percent.
Since November 2008, all 50 states have seen a net loss of jobs and a rise in their unemployment rates.
November's jobs picture is bleaker than October's, in part because last month's gains were driven by a rise in temporary employment, economists said. Temporary hiring often is a sign that employers are gearing up to add full-time jobs.
But economists cautioned that October's gains might not be sustainable. They were driven by temporary demand in the auto sector to replace inventories depleted by the Cash for Clunkers rebate program."(snip)
Three major points can arguably be taken from this news story
#1 - 'official' unemployment data does not account for a growing number of unemployed Americans who, upon exhausting their 72 months worth of unemployment benefits, are simply dropped from the 'labor force' being measured. This doesn't mean that these people have found a job or left the country, only that they have 'fallen through the cracks' of 'official' statistics. Also, based on the huge number of job losses in late 2008, the number of unemployed Americans that are now exhausting their unemployment benefits is rapidly increasing with each passing month.
#2 - of the jobs that actually have been added, the majority of them have been funded by US taxpayers rather than the private sector economy. This includes sectors of expanded employment like government, education and ( to some extent ) health care, professional services etc. These jobs do provide a paycheck for the American worker, but they do NOT provide net tax revenue since the entire paycheck was funded by other US taxpayers in the first place.
#3 - in the absence of gov't stimulus spending, jobs created based on that gov't stimulus spending quickly 'disappear'. This result has already been documented as a result of 'cash for clunkers' program expiration. It is probable that similar results will occur as stimulus package based spending runs its course.
Re: weekend commentary - US unemployment realities starting to show through
Prediction: 2010 will have at least one major riot.
Re: weekend commentary - US unemployment realities starting to show through
^^^ check out the (20)10 Trends thread ! The author more or less agrees with you. And while I wanted to keep this thread focused on REAL unemployment, there are all sorts of new reports / statistics showing that the robbery / burglary / theft crime rate is increasing even faster than unemployment. This really isn't all that surprising given the limited options for an unemployed American who has exhausted all 72 weeks of unemployment checks, STILL hav no real prospects for a job, etc.