10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
#1 - Gas Stations
Why: Basically, we've already hit peak gasoline. That's over. The future will have more and more public transportation, city living, and plug-ins, obviating the need for the good old fashioned gas stations
#2 - Department Stores
Why: Department stores have been in decline for awhile. They centralized approach to shopping is now largely the domain of the low-end of the market, while the high end has been cannibalized by the internet and by boutiques
#3 - Wired Telecom
Why: Duh, wireless
#4 - the Postal Service
Why: Email has put the mail service into permanent decline
#5 - Printing
Why: paper?
#6 - Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing
Why: Cars are still huge, but in the US they're on the decline.
#7 - Mining
Why: This industry has been hurting forever, and despite plans to get more self-reliant, the BLS sees no change here.
#8 - Newspaper Publishing
Why: Of course.
#9 - Semiconductors
Why: There was a point when Semiconductors were the definition of a high-tech industry. Now they're a cheap, manufactured product largely made in Asia
#10 - Apparel ( Clothing ) Manufacturing
Why: Actually, we're really surprised there are still 155,000 workers in this industry in America
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
Guess what I won't be doing ~_^.
None of these surprise me either. I moved from Chicago back to Detroit, good Ol' Motor City, and yes you can tell how it is affected by everything that isn't done here in the US. Sucks but if it is going to happen Detroit should've been preparing way better a long time ago. Instead they are getting ready to declare bankruptcy and inching closer to closing even more and more schools.
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
I'd extend some of that to 20 years.
Publishing and written journaism are already almost dead.
Aspects of semiconductor industry will not die, such as the engineering and sale. Innovation will keep them alive. But manufacturing is already almost dead. I used to work in this industry, on the IT side, and all of the fabs I dealt with are gone.
But look at fab-less companies like Silicon Labs. They will be around a while.
I will be damn happy to have to do less printing and receive less mail, right on!
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
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Aspects of semiconductor industry will not die, such as the engineering and sale. Innovation will keep them alive. But manufacturing is already almost dead. I used to work in this industry, on the IT side, and all of the fabs I dealt with are gone.
But look at fab-less companies like Silicon Labs. They will be around a while.
This point about fab-less American companies of course is likely to apply to an ever wider swath of American industries. I agree on your observation re Silicon Labs. I would also speculate that many more American companies from the automakers to the software houses to the 'green' technology industries will continue 'devolving' such that their American activities will be reduced to corporate management, R&D and front end engineering, domestic sales, and final assemblers - whereas as many fab related, accounting related and customer support related functions as possible will be 'outsourced' to countries with lower cost labor, energy, and environmental compliance costs.
Based loosely on some of the projected loss of employment levels in the link story, cross-pollinating your point leads to the following conclusions ...
- reductions in American employment levels will likely have no effect on executives, and little effect on scientist, engineers and other professionals. However it is likely to have a major impact on 'rank and file' American workers
- there is also another common thread among most of the industries on the top 10 list. Wired Telecom workers, Postal Service workers, Printers, Motor Vehicle parts fab workers, Miners, Newspaper press room and delivery workers, and Clothing Apparel workers are all unionized, and command a huge price premium for their labor.
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
there is an argument that if the american dollar cheapens sufficiently that it will become cheap enough to 'make in usa' loads of industries that are still expensive to keep in the usa.
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
#1 - Gas Stations
This is a long ways out. We need time to retrain all of the gas station employees to operate all of those new coal power plants we'll have to build to power the electric cars.
#2 - Department Stores
I hope not; I have a hard enough time finding clothes that fit me in the store, but to have to do it online would be a tedious misery of returns and reattempts.
#3 - Wired Telecom
Using a wireless Internet connection versus getting kicked in the shin is about a toss up for me; I'll use wired until I'm forced to stop.
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
How is publishing "almost dead"?
People still read newspapers, and last I went to Barns and Noble it was full of people buying books...
I sure hope everything doesnt become electronic. That would really disgust me. I don't want one of those electric book reader things. Maybe I'm not hip to the times but I need a REAL book I can sit in the bath with, fold pages over, highlight words... I can't read "online books" and stuff like that. Books better not go away in my time!
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
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Originally Posted by
Melonie
http://www.businessinsider.com/10-in...ine-stations-1
#1 - Gas Stations
Why: Basically, we've already hit peak gasoline. That's over. The future will have more and more public transportation, city living, and plug-ins, obviating the need for the good old fashioned gas stations
This is based on the assumption that vehicles will continue using gasoline for fuel. Breakthroughs in bio-fuel, such as bio-fuel from algae or hydrogen powered vehicles may result in a continued need for some type of refueling stations. Technically, they won't "gas stations", since they won't be selling gasoline, but they will still operate the same way gas stations do today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Melonie
#3 - Wired Telecom
Why: Duh, wireless
High-speed fiber optic networks and the bundling of voice, internet, and television services may keep wired telecom in existence for some time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Melonie
#4 - the Postal Service
Why: Email has put the mail service into permanent decline
The Postal Service's letter business will obviously decline, but package deliveries will probably increase as more people buy products over the internet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Melonie
#7 - Mining
Why: This industry has been hurting forever, and despite plans to get more self-reliant, the BLS sees no change here.
Not sure why they think this. I would like to see mining go away, but it's hard to imagine the demand for coal to disappear over the next decade. It would be great if this does happen.
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
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there is an argument that if the american dollar cheapens sufficiently that it will become cheap enough to 'make in usa' loads of industries that are still expensive to keep in the usa
yes, theoretically. But for this to actually happen, it would require that US worker paychecks do NOT increase while at the same time the american dollar's exchange rate falls significantly with respect to all other currencies. But given that gasoline, food, raw materials, and products manufactured from those raw materials would also greatly increase in price as a result of the US dollar's exchange rate falling, the real world impact of this situation would be a major decline in the US standard of living across the board.
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it's hard to imagine the demand for coal to disappear over the next decade. It would be great if this does happen.
it's already happening in the 10 northeast US states that have enacted tough new stack emissions standards on coal fired power plants ... resulting in the closing down of coal fired power plants rather than multibillion dollar investments necessary to clean them up. And with recent EPA rulings on CO2 emissions, this is likely to happen nationwide. As a result, coal fired plants will be replaced with natural gas fired plants ... which lower CO2 emissions but significantly increase electricity prices. Of course the higher US gas fired electricity prices will probably result in yet more US jobs in energy intensive industries to be lost to the cheap unscrubbed coal fired power countries like China and India.
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The Postal Service's letter business will obviously decline, but package deliveries will probably increase as more people buy products over the internet
indeed package deliveries will increase overall, but the USPS does NOT have a legal monopoly in this area ... and is already at a cost competition disadvantage vs private sector competitors UPS and FedEx - who can pay their drivers $13 an hour without US gov't level 100% health insurance and without 'retire after 20 years' retirement fund costs.
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High-speed fiber optic networks and the bundling of voice, internet, and television services may keep wired telecom in existence for some time
only in agreement regarding wired 'combo' services i.e. cable TV + high speed internet + voice phone / fax service all from the same 'cable' provider.
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How is publishing "almost dead"?
People still read newspapers, and last I went to Barns and Noble it was full of people buying books
well the question to ask is whether people will still read paper newspapers if their cost doubles. This is what will be necessary to allow newspaper publishers to avoid bankruptcy. And the best selling book product is no longer books, it's Kindles et al !!
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This is based on the assumption that vehicles will continue using gasoline for fuel. Breakthroughs in bio-fuel, such as bio-fuel from algae or hydrogen powered vehicles may result in a continued need for some type of refueling stations. Technically, they won't "gas stations", since they won't be selling gasoline, but they will still operate the same way gas stations do today
I think that the author's fundamental point was that far fewer people will be able to afford owning and operating private vehicles 10 years from now ... as well as far fewer people being able to afford owning / renting single family housing in the suburbs such that a private vehicle is absolutely necessary. Instead the author sees an ever growing segment of the ( chronically unemployed ) population being relocated into the cities, where mass transit is readily available ( along with gov't subsidized housing etc.).
~
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Melonie
it's already happening in the 10 northeast US states that have enacted tough new stack emissions standards on coal fired power plants ... resulting in the closing down of coal fired power plants rather than multibillion dollar investments necessary to clean them up. And with recent EPA rulings on CO2 emissions, this is likely to happen nationwide. As a result, coal fired plants will be replaced with natural gas fired plants ... which lower CO2 emissions but significantly increase electricity prices. Of course the higher US gas fired electricity prices will probably result in yet more US jobs in energy intensive industries to be lost to the cheap unscrubbed coal fired power countries like China and India.
~
I hope you're right about coal, but the coal industry does have a significant amount of influence with Congress. There are a few states where coal mining is a very large employer.
Natural gas isn't much much more costly than coal. New discoveries have significantly increased the supply and brought the cost down.
http://news-gazette.com/news/local/2..._warming_fight
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
"And the best selling book product is no longer books, it's Kindles et al !!"
^^GRrrr... I hate it soooo much! :(
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MsClaireVoyant
How is publishing "almost dead"?
Last week I was in Copenhagen to report on the COP15 summit. I don't have press accreditation, mainly because I am not a journalist, so they refused me entry after a 4 hour wait to get in. When I told them I 'reported' for an online news site and was a professional blogger, they basically waived me in!! The gist of it was that, "We (the UN) want more bloggers in here".
Bearing in mind that I can get my stuff online immediately and newspapers wait hours or a day, is already reason enough for them to be in trouble. In addition, my costs are, well, low.
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
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Natural gas isn't much much more costly than coal. New discoveries have significantly increased the supply and brought the cost down.
The problem with natural gas pricing, in North America at least, is that the existing gas pipeline transportation and storage system creates de-facto 'island' markets. In other words, discovering a quadrillion cubic feet of new natgas in Alaska or the US northwest doesn't help one bit in regard to existing pipelines' capacity to transport additional natgas to the US northeast. This is the reason that NYMEX natgas prices have gone from ~$3 to almost ~$6 over the course of the past few months based solely on a marginal increase in industrial / power generator / home heating natgas demand.
Of course, this situation would stop immediately if fat new natgas pipelines were to be constructed ... but in the real world that's even more difficult than getting a new nuke plant construction approved ! So every coal fired power plant that decides to shut down automatically 'trades' X million BTU's worth of coal fuel for natural gas fuel ... but without doing anything to offset capacity restraints of existing natgas pipelines. As those constraints become more and more binding, the 'island' price of natgas will climb higher and higher.
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
Natural gas can be transported by ship, rail, or truck in liquefied form.
Re: 10 American Industries that will be Destroyed in the next Decade
^^^ true, but the only truly economically competive shipping method is by ocean freight ... since this method alone brings 'cheaper' foreign natural gas into the more expensive US market thus generating an arbitrage profit to cover shipping costs. Unfortunately, due to a long list of environmental objections stopping many such projects, there are only five functional LNG port facilities in the USA ... and they are all fully utilized.