-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jimboe7373
They get mad because what the other person does very often affects the outcome for their bet. When Player B doesn't follow basic strategy and does "something wrong" it will negatively impact Player B about 50% of the time, positively impact them about 25% of the time and have a neutral impact about 25% of the time. It's a communal game and everyone's play impact the results on each of the individual players.
For those reasons if I do play that game, I play very late or very early when there are a minimum number of strangers coming in and out of the table or I use a cyclical betting system that removes the affects of variables in other people's play.
http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/ About halfway down the page, Jim from LV asks about this. The Wizard knows his shit.
Yes, the play will obviously alter that immediate go-round, but it will also have a "butterfly effect" on the later hands; so even if someone screws up your hand now, they may have altered the game so that it benefits you on a later hand that would previously have been negative for you. It all evens out.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jimboe7373
They get mad because what the other person does very often affects the outcome for their bet. When Player B doesn't follow basic strategy and does "something wrong" it will negatively impact Player B about 50% of the time, positively impact them about 25% of the time and have a neutral impact about 25% of the time. It's a communal game and everyone's play impact the results on each of the individual players.
Bull. Run a simulation with say a few million black jack hands and someone ahead of them playing different strategies. It has no impact.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Selina M
http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/ About halfway down the page, Jim from LV asks about this. The Wizard knows his shit.
Yes, the play will obviously alter that immediate go-round, but it will also have a "butterfly effect" on the later hands; so even if someone screws up your hand now, they may have altered the game so that it benefits you on a later hand that would previously have been negative for you. It all evens out.
Didn't see this before I posted. Better response than mine. Thank you Selina.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
knightwish
Bull. Run a simulation with say a few million black jack hands and someone ahead of them playing different strategies. It has no impact.
Nobody is going to play a million hands in one sitting, the average amount of plays is probably like 40 or so, and in that window of hands the stats I posted are pretty accurate. I've dealt blackjack for 16 years and have been a non-partial observer for probably well over those 1 million hands you wanted to simulate. Whether its random clustering or some other factor, what I posted has consistently been my experience in actual play.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Melonie
poker player here ! I'm not actually all that good at it, but I do have a way of distracting other players at the table ...
I've seen that work at lots of games where players have under $5k in front of them. There is a definite faction of men who really dislike surrendering to a woman. If a women plays a boring tight game with little bluffing and there are one or two of these at the table she's always a statistical winner. You throw flirting into the mix and you can often pick up another man or two that doesn't punish you when he has a great hand and you have a good hand.
Assuming that retired strippers would have no problem flirting, if they are naturally talented enough in math to do the probabilities and willing to learn to play a solid game (I'm not saying a great game, just solid) ... they can bank.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jimboe7373
Nobody is going to play a million hands in one sitting, the average amount of plays is probably like 40 or so, and in that window of hands the stats I posted are pretty accurate.
So your theory is that groups of 40 hands have entirely different properties than groups of a million hands? Meet the central limit theorem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jimboe7373
I've dealt blackjack for 16 years and have been a non-partial observer for probably well over those 1 million hands you wanted to simulate. Whether its random clustering or some other factor, what I posted has consistently been my experience in actual play.
Yes exactly it is your experience, which is to say your memory. Humans bias information towards danger and aggressively draw patterns even when they don't exist. What's likely going on there is the advantages didn't draw your attention nearly as much as the times it hurt the next player. Once you started to buy into this theory you had confirmation biases.
I believe you 100% when you say that's your experience. But your experience of a statistical event when you are subconsciously recording it, sucks. Same as mine. Same as every other human's.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
knightwish
So your theory is that groups of 40 hands have entirely different properties than groups of a million hands? Meet the
central limit theorem.
Yes exactly it is your experience, which is to say your memory. Humans bias information towards danger and aggressively draw patterns even when they don't exist. What's likely going on there is the advantages didn't draw your attention nearly as much as the times it hurt the next player. Once you started to buy into this theory you had confirmation biases.
I believe you 100% when you say that's your experience. But your experience of a statistical event when you are subconsciously recording it, sucks. Same as mine. Same as every other human's.
I like you..... I really like you.
Smart dudes are the bee's knees.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Sophia_Starina
I like you..... I really like you.
Smart dudes are the bee's knees.
Thank you very much Sophia. Sentiments are shared. I've enjoyed your posts, too many of your best lines are in the women's only section so I couldn't comment but I'm glad you gave me the opportunity here.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
I've seen that work at lots of games where players have under $5k in front of them. There is a definite faction of men who really dislike surrendering to a woman. If a women plays a boring tight game with little bluffing and there are one or two of these at the table she's always a statistical winner. You throw flirting into the mix and you can often pick up another man or two that doesn't punish you when he has a great hand and you have a good hand.
Yup ... exactly. Amateur guys are really reluctant to fold to a woman even when the odds are not in their favor. Throw in a little bit of 'dumb blonde with big boobs' misdirection, and it's possible to eke out a little bit of an advantage. However, serious players never buy into this stuff.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
knightwish
So your theory is that groups of 40 hands have entirely different properties than groups of a million hands? Meet the
central limit theorem.
Your Central Limit Theorem doesn't hold up in this example. Random clustering is the dominant factor in what we are discussing. If you flip a coin 3 times, there is a decent chance it may be heads all 3 times or tails all 3 times. If you flip it 10 times it can very likely be one way 6 times and the other way 4 times, if you flip it 1,000 times the likely tally of all those flips will probably only be 1 or 2% off from 50%.
Blackjack being much more complex than heads or tails will have much larger random clustering cycles, so the dynamics that occur during a 40 hand segment can and often will differ drastically then those during a million hand segment.
Quote:
Yes exactly it is your experience, which is to say your memory. Humans bias information towards danger and aggressively draw patterns even when they don't exist. What's likely going on there is the advantages didn't draw your attention nearly as much as the times it hurt the next player. Once you started to buy into this theory you had confirmation biases.
I believe you 100% when you say that's your experience. But your experience of a statistical event when you are subconsciously recording it, sucks. Same as mine. Same as every other human's.
Not going by memory, going by results. In blackjack tournaments, tables with all the players playing basic strategy consistently do better than those with even one player not playing basic strategy.
It's not just me, professional and high limit players will almost always leave the table if someone doesn't play basic strategy. At many high limit tables pit bosses and casino hosts will not allow non-basic strategy players to play. Have you ever heard of anyone getting angry or leaving a table because someone WAS playing basic strategy?. Are all those people wrong as well?
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jimboe7373
It's not just me, professional and high limit players will almost always leave the table if someone doesn't play basic strategy. At many high limit tables pit bosses and casino hosts will not allow non-basic strategy players to play. Have you ever heard of anyone getting angry or leaving a table because someone WAS playing basic strategy?. Are all those people wrong as well?
This is why I am terrified to play BlackJack in a real place.... *squeak!*
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Sophia_Starina
This is why I am terrified to play BlackJack in a real place.... *squeak!*
It's your money and most certainly your right to play however you want. If it bothers some people it is their right to leave the table. I do like to teach people who aren't aware of basic strategy so that they can play whichever way they want, but from a position of knowledge.
It's extremely simple and once they understand the dynamics and see the results the vast majority adopt it as their playing style. In a nutshell:
If the dealer has a 2-6 as his top card he is considered WEAK
If he has 7-10 as his top card he is considered STRONG
When the dealer is WEAK, basic strategy says to STAY if you can possibly break by hitting (12 or higher)
If the deal is STRONG, basic strategy says to HIT till you have 17 or higher.
If you follow that simple formula no one will ever say a word.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jimboe7373
It's your money and most certainly your right to play however you want. If it bothers some people it is their right to leave the table. I do like to teach people who aren't aware of basic strategy so that they can play whichever way they want, but from a position of knowledge.
It's extremely simple and once they understand the dynamics and see the results the vast majority adopt it as their playing style. In a nutshell:
If the dealer has a 2-6 as his top card he is considered WEAK
If he has 7-10 as his top card he is considered STRONG
When the dealer is WEAK, basic strategy says to STAY if you can possibly break by hitting (12 or higher)
If the deal is STRONG, basic strategy says to HIT till you have 17 or higher.
If you follow that simple formula no one will ever say a word.
Should I care whether people stay or go?
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Sophia_Starina
Should I care whether people stay or go?
As a recreational player not really, I said that in regards to everyone being free to do what they want.
As a more serious player, if you are looking for trends in the shoe (the group of cards they shuffle and deal at one time) and card-flow, then the less variables the better, so people coming and going frequently should be avoided. Some of the higher limit tables will not allow people to join a table in the middle of a shoe.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
In Vegas, the casino gift shops sell a playing card-sized basic strategy table and you are allowed to refer to it while playing. Other players may offer advice, but you are always free to hit or stand as you like. Some players will get huffy if they don't think you are playing "correct". Fuck'em. It's your money you're risking. And despite jimboe's position, the math is the math. Another person's play has no effect on the long term outcome of playing blackjack. And you should always hit a 12 against a dealer's 2.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jimboe7373
At many high limit tables pit bosses and casino hosts will not allow non-basic strategy players to play.
That makes absolutely no sense, IMHO. Basic strategy cuts the house edge down. Why would they *want* that? I cannot imagine them kicking out someone playing a $100/hand table because he's playing on hunches instead of a strategy.
How far do you have to deviate from basic strategy to get kicked out? If I'm counting cards and I double when basic strategy says I shouldn't, because I know the count, am I going to get booted? Are they perhaps booting people who are not just playing on hunches and guesses, but those they suspect are counting cards due to unorthodox plays?
As far as the simulators and odds argument: for the guy who plays an hour on his vacation, yes, he may experience a negative impact on his play, because he is not going to continue playing for long enough for "what went around to come around" and have a positive impact on him. However, this is different for those people who have a high bankroll and are playing many hours a week and are able to ride out fluctuations and whatnot; in the long run, they *will* see the same results given by a simulator. So it really depends on if you are a serious card counter type, or someone who plays a few hands once a year.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Lol. If casinos only allow high rollers who play basic strategy, I'd open a casino for all their castoffs. And I'd be the richest bastard on the strip.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Selina M
That makes absolutely no sense, IMHO. Basic strategy cuts the house edge down. Why would they *want* that? I cannot imagine them kicking out someone playing a $100/hand table because he's playing on hunches instead of a strategy.
The $100 a hand is not what I'm referring to as the High Limit players. Basic strategy gives the player the best odds possible in blackjack, but there is still ample room for the casino to make money. The high limit players are extremely sought after and are pampered by casino hosts, pit-bosses and everyone else in the casino. Pretty much whatever they want, the casino will make happen, so if there is a player who is disturbing them with their style of play, the host will often politely offer to find the offending player another table. Some hosts and pit-bosses will do this without even being requested by the players, but since most high-limit people play basic strategy this is something that rarely happens.
Quote:
How far do you have to deviate from basic strategy to get kicked out? If I'm counting cards and I double when basic strategy says I shouldn't, because I know the count, am I going to get booted? Are they perhaps booting people who are not just playing on hunches and guesses, but those they suspect are counting cards due to unorthodox plays?
As mentioned, people getting booted is extremely rare as most of the people who play at a high limit table will play using basic strategy. Booting people has nothing to do with casino policy, it's more client relations for their biggest spenders.
Quote:
As far as the simulators and odds argument: for the guy who plays an hour on his vacation, yes, he may experience a negative impact on his play, because he is not going to continue playing for long enough for "what went around to come around" and have a positive impact on him. However, this is different for those people who have a high bankroll and are playing many hours a week and are able to ride out fluctuations and whatnot; in the long run, they *will* see the same results given by a simulator. So it really depends on if you are a serious card counter type, or someone who plays a few hands once a year.
Usually serious players don't look at it as riding out fluctuations or hours in a week, they break it down in terms of sessions and are waiting for particular circumstances. Blackjack is more often then not cyclical, there may be several times per night when there is a "players shoe" (cycle of card flow that benefits the players) or when the deck is very rich in 10's. A serious player may have waited several hours for this circumstance making small bets and is now ready to dramatically increase his bets to make his real money for the session. If at this time someone is aggressively hitting and digging deeper into the shoe, it introduces unnecessary variables into the game and very often impacts the cycle.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Pro football & horse racing specifically harness racing.
I bet $$ on only specific races & its rather easy to win granted not alot of $$ but decent spending $$.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
I love table games, I dealt just about everything for a couple years, when you play 30+ hours a week you get a pretty good sense of what's coming next. I still go with a budget and expect to lose though :p You have to know when to quit, no one really does though.
Table games is really interactive and a lot more social, and I don't know if anyone really cares but I do have some tips because it really can be fun and I'd like everyone to win :p
1. When you join a table ask if its ok, most people are there to have fun but some are very serious (and aren't fun to be around anyways) and unless the deck is total crap and they want to mix it up, it's best to wait for a new shoe.
2. Take a peek at the "rules" for playing, but it isn't necessary to keep the little card with every possible scenario. if you aren't sure everyone else would be happy (ecstatic really) to tell you what to do. In some casinos (like mine) the dealers aren't allowed to help the players. If the advice doesn't work out the dealer is stuck with a very angry player for the rest of their time there, and it can be really unpleasant (think best case an hour or two of being cussed out non-stop, or even having them attack you. Which does happen)
3. Roulette has the worst odds in the house (unless you only play black/red, even/odd, but those odds aren't 50/50 because of the zeros) Spanish 21 is slightly different than blackjack, but same basic concept and better odds.
4. Most people know this already, but just in case: play blackjack like the dealer has a ten under, always (never take insurance though) if he has a 4-5-6 up don't risk busting, leave the big cards for them. If they have anything else up though, you assume that they won't have to hit so you should play to beat them. Don't aim for 21, aim to get higher than them. If they have an 8 up assume they have 18 and you should hit your 12-13-14 etc. 16's are a personal preference, I never hit them and none of my dealer friends ever would, but according to the book you should. Basically you'll need a miracle to win with 16 either way. The most important thing is that the way you play completely depends on the dealer's hand, don't bust if they're probably going to (3-6 up) and if they have a high card (or an ace or two) up don't stay on a crappy hand.
5. Slightly more random, but the whole "thin to win" when cutting the deck is a thing, every casino has rules about how deep you have to place the cut card but put it as close to the front as possible. And if you can, go to a table where they hand shuffle, it's worth the wait.
6. I would never suggest it, but if you HAVE to split tens, do it when you're the only player. Everyone will be incredibly mad at you, and it's a little hard to have a fun night out when everyone else is being horrible to you.
7. Please, please, please be nice to the dealer. They make more money in tips than their hourly wage and they WANT you to win. No one seems to get this, but they don't pocket the money you lose. You win=they get tipped and get to eat that week, you lose= no money, unhappy players who are miserable to be around.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
whirlerz
Ok, so going to the casino nearby..who's into gambling here? If so, what do you play? For me it's slots, idk any of the other stuff.:):-\
Very rarely do I gamble. If I was good at math and sneaky about counting cards, you bet I would go more often. Losing money makes me :'(
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
After recently moving to Vegas, I've done my fair share. About the blackjack discussion of affecting other players chances of winning.. I haven't given it much thought, but it should always help the other player. Them getting angry over that 'would have/should have' been their card is ridiculous to me personally and open to debate... But if you're keeping track of cards it can slightly influence (help) the decision making process. I know there's at least 1 casino with single deck BJ in Vegas (seen the signs off strip).
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
I love casinos. It might be because that the first time I went I won almost $7k on a slot machine with someone else's money, but who knows *shrug*. I know basic strategy, but I can't hang out at the blackjack tables, I ALWAYS lose. I'll have a 20 and the dealer will pull 21 out of his ass. I like playing, but it's just not my game. I have fun on slots, and I don't lose too badly there. The lights and sounds really excited me too. Yep, I'm a slots gal.
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
I hate casinos.
My husband is in the casino biz, so I feel like I "should know better", if you know what I mean.
Although, I have seen people be very successful in their casino endevours, so to each their own. But hey, if you've lost money at the casino, thanks for paying for my health insurance. ;)
-
Re: Gambling: who's into it?
I read this book recently, about a pro poker player who previously did not know how to play at all, was self taught, & is now a winning pro. I forgot the title but I think his name's Dusty.
He also was on his way to become a golf pro before that, but suffered a heart attack in his mid twenties