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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
eagle2
Spanish Flu killed over 40 million people. The world didn't shut down because there was a world war going on. AIDS and Ebola are transmitted through bodily fluid. You can't catch them just by breathing.
Sweden kept their economy open and did nothing more than recommend that the elderly and people at risk stay home, as some of the people here are suggesting. So far, 3,871 people have died from the virus there. Neighboring Norway did shut down their economy, and so far, has had 235 deaths from the virus. 3,871 deaths in Sweden is the equivalent of 125,400 deaths in the US. 235 deaths in Norway is the equivalent of 14,361 deaths in the US.
Trying to extrapolate the death rates of a small country like Sweden to a country as large and diverse as the U.S. is ridiculous monkey math. There are too many variables for that to be remotely reliable.
But let me ask you this. Would you rather have been in Stockholm or NYC during the peak? How about Rome? Or Paris? I know my answer to that question and you will too if you dig into the numbers. Or how about Sweden as a whole vs. NY State?
The one notable place where their plan went awry is that they did not do enough early on to protect the nursing homes, which is where half of their deaths came from. If they had taken FL type steps right at the outset, the number of deaths would likely be significantly lower.
The story about Sweden is mixed, but I can tell you that its population considers their approach to be a rousing success. Their kids are still in school, their economy is still pumping (albeit a little slower) and their people are still living their lives. When this is all over, they will not be facing devastating mass poverty, or spikes in suicides, domestic abuse and drug overdoes, or all of the myriad other economic and social ills that come from government imposed lockdowns.
When other countries look back a year or two from now, I suspect that many U.S. states and other countries are going to wish that they had used a Swedish type model in lieu of an approach that caused so much economic carnage and mental health damage to so many people.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
rickdugan
Trying to extrapolate the death rates of a small country like Sweden to a country as large and diverse as the U.S. is ridiculous monkey math. There are too many variables for that to be remotely reliable.
I wasn't. I was comparing Sweden to Norway.
To say Sweden fared better than Norway is monkey math.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
rickdugan
But let me ask you this. Would you rather have been in Stockholm or NYC during the peak? How about Rome? Or Paris? I know my answer to that question and you will too if you dig into the numbers. Or how about Sweden as a whole vs. NY State?
I would have rather been in Oslo or Auckland or Tapei, or in any big city in a country whose leader acted responsibly from day one, in responding to the coronavirus, than in Stockholm or NYC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
rickdugan
The story about Sweden is mixed, but I can tell you that its population considers their approach to be a rousing success. Their kids are still in school, their economy is still pumping (albeit a little slower) and their people are still living their lives. When this is all over, they will not be facing devastating mass poverty, or spikes in suicides, domestic abuse and drug overdoes, or all of the myriad other economic and social ills that come from government imposed lockdowns.
I doubt that.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ly/5180069002/
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
eagle2
I wasn't. I was comparing Sweden to Norway.
To say Sweden fared better than Norway is monkey math.
I would have rather been in Oslo or Auckland or Tapei, or in any big city in a country whose leader acted responsibly from day one, in responding to the coronavirus, than in Stockholm or NYC.
I doubt that.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ly/5180069002/
You were indeed comparing Sweden to the U.S. when you tried to extrapolate potential death rates.
3,871 deaths in Sweden is the equivalent of 125,400 deaths in the US.
As far as the rest, hindsight is always 20/20. A fair % of Americans may still have some fear, but IMHO the tide is already shifting. The economic reckoning hasn't even arrived yet, but it will once we release the pause button that all of this stimulus has allowed. Sooner or later, as sanity continues to return, we will look back on this and wonder if we did the right thing. I am already utterly convinced that there will be no further shutdowns once the current crop is lifted.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
No, I compared Sweden to Norway:
3,871 deaths in Sweden is the equivalent of 125,400 deaths in the US. 235 deaths in Norway is the equivalent of 14,361 deaths in the US.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
eagle2
No, I compared Sweden to Norway:
3,871 deaths in Sweden is the equivalent of 125,400 deaths in the US. 235 deaths in Norway is the equivalent of 14,361 deaths in the US.
No they are not "equivalent." Population size and clustering, population age, climate conditions and a variety of other variables all play a role in infection and mortality rates. Using one small homogeneous country and trying to extrapolate (look that word up if you need to) the experience to a much larger country that has a much larger set of variables is comparing apples to bananas. For this reason, your equivalency comment does not hold. The reality is that we don't know how we would have fared if we followed Sweden's example, especially if we had done a better job in protecting the vulnerable from the outset.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
The death rate for ventilator patients is something like 85%. Doctors have been rethinking ventilator use and trying other forms of breathing support and respiratory therapy with better results.
I'm inclined to think that has something to do with the fact that by the time you need a ventilator, you're pretty far gone already.
But I agree that they can try other options first if the person isn't literally gasping for air. It's traumatic to the lungs and they're thinking that might be aggravating whatever damage this virus does, hence ventilator outcomes not being so hot.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
US still leads the world ..... in infections and death related to coronavirus
So is there/will there be a surge? Idk. But I ain’t trying to find out nor be included in the statistics unnecessarily
I’ll stick to zoom meets n home cooking/home entertainment on Memorial Day n beyond
Also I might add if you work outside your home you will be wise to ensure your health/life especially if you have a family that depends on you.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
rickdugan
No they are not "equivalent." Population size and clustering, population age, climate conditions and a variety of other variables all play a role in infection and mortality rates. Using one small homogeneous country and trying to extrapolate (look that word up if you need to) the experience to a much larger country that has a much larger set of variables is comparing apples to bananas. For this reason, your equivalency comment does not hold. The reality is that we don't know how we would have fared if we followed Sweden's example, especially if we had done a better job in protecting the vulnerable from the outset.
You seem to have a difficult time understanding simple English, understanding simple concepts, or both. Not once did I say we would have had the same death rate if we followed the same policies as Sweden. Approximately 1 out of 2,600 people in Sweden died from coronavirus. All I did was give the figure of how many 1 out of 2,600 people in the US is, and the same for Norway. Sweden has a much lower poverty rate than the US, a much healthier population, and a much better healthcare system. They have more hospital beds and physicians per 1,000 people than the US. If we followed the policies that you're advocating, we would have had a much higher death rate than Sweden. The number of deaths would have been a few hundred thousand or even more than 1 million. I think your problem is, you don't understand how deadly the virus is, and you don't understand that you don't understand this. Not only do doctors and scientists overwhelmingly agree that shelter-at-home and social distancing policies are necessary in order to prevent a massive increase in deaths from the virus, that is what the evidence shows. Countries that implemented these policies right from the start had much lower death rates than countries that waited to implement these policies, as the US did, or didn't implement them at all. It's estimated that if the US had implemented these policies 2 weeks sooner, approximately 90% of the deaths could have been prevented.
Not only do scientists overwhelmingly agree that these policies are necessary, but so do the American people. Poll after poll shows that Americans don't want their states to reopen until it is safe to do so. The people that you claim to be trying to protect, do not want your protection. Even if states do formally reopen, it's not going to make much difference, because most people will continue to stay at home and practice social distance when they leave home, until it is safe not to.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Thanks to New York's shelter-at-home and social distancing policies, the number of daily deaths in NY has dropped from close to 800 to less than 100.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-yor...low-100-cuomo/
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Alabama reopened most non-essential businesses on May 11. Montgomery, Alabama's health care system has been “maxed out”.
Major hospitals in the Montgomery area have run out of ICU beds, Mayor Steven Reed said at a news conference Wednesday, while others only one or two beds left.
Patients in need of care are now instead being sent 90 miles away to Birmingham, Alabama, the mayor said, a step the city hasn’t had to take until now.
“Right now, if you are from Montgomery and you need an ICU bed, you are in trouble,” Reed said, adding “we are at a very critical point in our health care system’s capacity to manage this crisis. They are at a capacity that is not sustainable.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nichola.../#63707c14fa38
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Vyanka
This is sad. Senior citizens lives matter too. When I was told that in Spain they were euthanizing older folks who were suffering, I cried. I imgained those being my grandparents. So sad. People getting euthanized like animals. Terrible.
Speaking as someone who has cheated death a couple times in hospital settings recently, the "hot shot" that ailing elderly people are sometimes gifted is far better than just letting them waste away. Or suffocate.
//The old saying is true, the "best you can hope for is to die in your sleep."
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
eagle2
You seem to have a difficult time understanding simple English, understanding simple concepts, or both. Not once did I say we would have had the same death rate if we followed the same policies as Sweden. Approximately 1 out of 2,600 people in Sweden died from coronavirus. All I did was give the figure of how many 1 out of 2,600 people in the US is, and the same for Norway. Sweden has a much lower poverty rate than the US, a much healthier population, and a much better healthcare system. They have more hospital beds and physicians per 1,000 people than the US. If we followed the policies that you're advocating, we would have had a much higher death rate than Sweden. The number of deaths would have been a few hundred thousand or even more than 1 million. I think your problem is, you don't understand how deadly the virus is, and you don't understand that you don't understand this. Not only do doctors and scientists overwhelmingly agree that shelter-at-home and social distancing policies are necessary in order to prevent a massive increase in deaths from the virus, that is what the evidence shows. Countries that implemented these policies right from the start had much lower death rates than countries that waited to implement these policies, as the US did, or didn't implement them at all. It's estimated that if the US had implemented these policies 2 weeks sooner, approximately 90% of the deaths could have been prevented.
Not only do scientists overwhelmingly agree that these policies are necessary, but so do the American people. Poll after poll shows that Americans don't want their states to reopen until it is safe to do so. The people that you claim to be trying to protect, do not want your protection. Even if states do formally reopen, it's not going to make much difference, because most people will continue to stay at home and practice social distance when they leave home, until it is safe not to.
Sure you weren't trying to draw the inference Eagle. That's why you then plowed right ahead to claim that we would have had an even greater death rate if we followed the Swedish model. A passive aggressive inference is still an inference, even if you try to disown it as such.
To your other points, there is no way whatsoever to know the veracity of your claims and all your angst ridden hyperbole doesn't make any of that more right Dr. Eagle, nor do your broad sweeping generalities about what you believe "doctors and scientists overwhelming agree" on. But the most angst ridden of those same experts claimed that Florida would have 100,000 deaths because they closed too late and look how that went. And putting aside your dubious claim about the quality of the Swedish healthcare system, there are many other differences between Sweden.
Florida, with 22 million people, including a large elderly population and plenty of poor people, is a prime example of a more nuanced approach. The state closed later than most states, is opening earlier and, even during the worst of it, imposed a "lockdown" that was far less draconian than most states. How many people died in Florida? Not the 100,000 predicted by many pundits, but less than 2,300.
These never-ending lockdowns are what happens when decision making is made by frightened people acting out of panic. I'm sure that all of this is very emotionally satisfying to those who are naturally fearful and seek justification to continue to behave so, but the hard evidence here in the U.S suggests that climate and population density were the two primary determinants of infection spread and that age was the primary factor in mortality. The same evidence also now suggests that we could have prevented tens of thousands of deaths if we had simply locked down the nursing homes sooner, as FL did.
But let's say you are right and people will huddle in their homes even if we open up. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't do it. Some business income is better than none and each person should decide when the right time is for him/her.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
eagle2
Interesting, you say that like its fact. I read the article you posted, all it said was that the graph misleading, not that cases werent going down.
My point was that 'experts' were saying there would be a surge because Georgia was opening up too early(May 1). Here were the number of new daily Covid cases around that time of opening...
4/29 714
4/30 731
5/1 738
5/2 732
5/3 718
and here are the cases a couple weeks later when we would be seeing the surge....
5/14 648
5/15 653
5/16 666
and here we are over 3 weeks later
yesterday 498
today so far 330(couple hours left)
So....cases in Georgia have continued to drop after opening up. While testing has stayed roughly the same.
This raw data readily available, maybe if you didnt just seek out information that is spun to your particlular political bent....this kind of misinformation can be avoided.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
eagle2
Spanish Flu killed over 40 million people. The world didn't shut down because there was a world war going on. AIDS and Ebola are transmitted through bodily fluid. You can't catch them just by breathing.
Sweden kept their economy open and did nothing more than recommend that the elderly and people at risk stay home, as some of the people here are suggesting. So far, 3,871 people have died from the virus there. Neighboring Norway did shut down their economy, and so far, has had 235 deaths from the virus. 3,871 deaths in Sweden is the equivalent of 125,400 deaths in the US. 235 deaths in Norway is the equivalent of 14,361 deaths in the US.
While it started DURING W.W. I , the Spanish Flu peaked in late 1918 and early 1919 , AFTER the war had ended.
The casualties from the Hong Kong Flu epidemic of 1968-9 totaled over a million people.Sweden has a larger population than Norway and (as you have written ) a state of the art health care system with very extensive and accurate reporting. But the Swedes have acknowledged that their numbers are probably OVER -inclusive. If you die of a heart attack and are Covid positive you are listed as dying from Covid. Same if you had a stroke or a fat embolism and are Covid positive.
How do you explain Florida ? Governor DeSantis took steps to protect the nursing homes ( Unlike Cuomo , Murphy , Pritzker and a number of other Blue State Governors ) and their death rate is relatively low.
Yes, yes, I know that California's death rate is low ( 3,700 ) and they totally shut down. New York has about 23,000 deaths with comparable numbers in N.J. , Illinois, and Pennsylvania. New York has 6% of the U.S. population but almost 25% of total deaths. Even allowing for the imbecilic requirement that Covid positive patients be put into nursing homes which btw , had a LOT of serious problems BEFORE this pandemic.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Folks PLEASE ! This is an important topic and it would be a shame if the Mods shut it down. Let's all try to avoid personalizing, name-calling etc. There is no need for it.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
The Atlantic Reports that the CDC has mixed the results of active virus and antibody tests. This is after they bungled the initial test, refused to use the German test. And how many different pronouncements did we get from Fauci , Birx and The Surgeon General about wearing masks ?
In the "lock-down' states the following are open : Liquor stores , pot shops , abortion clinics. Closed are churches , AA meetings and drug counseling. In California, casinos are open but not churches.
Over the last 2 months we have seen a power grab by technocrats designed and intended to limit liberty. Governors , Mayors and County Executives have issued edicts with no legislation. Phil Murphy admitted that he never gave " a second's thought to the Bill Of Rights ". Our government was designed to protect our rights to "life , liberty and the pursuit of happiness ". Instead we have had edicts based on experts' opinions that have often proved to be factually delinquent e.g. : "Wear a mask ; don't need a mask : you MUST wear a mask ".
We are humans and humans make mistakes. There is plenty of blame to go around. The issue is what to do now ? The assumption that most people and most businesses cannot walk and chew gum at the same time underlies most of the overbearing and destructive policies that most of us are trying to deal with. I say reopen and reopen NOW. With distancing ; with masks ; with plastic shields and other reasonable precautions. Open up stadiums and arenas and have fans sit in alternate seats in alternate rows to start. Limit elevators to two people at a time. Open up the beaches and parks and the gyms. If I can have my office deep cleaned and sanitized ( twice ) so can gym owners. And if they don't shut them down and let the members who get sick sue.
Historically , we have always balanced liberty with the public interest. Sometimes we go too far one way or the other but we usually get it right. Why can't we do so now ?
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
lemiwinks31
Interesting, you say that like its fact. I read the article you posted, all it said was that the graph misleading, not that cases werent going down.
My point was that 'experts' were saying there would be a surge because Georgia was opening up too early(May 1). Here were the number of new daily Covid cases around that time of opening...
4/29 714
4/30 731
5/1 738
5/2 732
5/3 718
and here are the cases a couple weeks later when we would be seeing the surge....
5/14 648
5/15 653
5/16 666
and here we are over 3 weeks later
yesterday 498
today so far 330(couple hours left)
So....cases in Georgia have continued to drop after opening up. While testing has stayed roughly the same.
This raw data readily available, maybe if you didnt just seek out information that is spun to your particlular political bent....this kind of misinformation can be avoided.
i find your comment about misinformation to be a bit hypocritical given you posting numbers with no sources
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
lemiwinks31
Interesting, you say that like its fact. I read the article you posted, all it said was that the graph misleading, not that cases werent going down.
My point was that 'experts' were saying there would be a surge because Georgia was opening up too early(May 1). Here were the number of new daily Covid cases around that time of opening...
4/29 714
4/30 731
5/1 738
5/2 732
5/3 718
and here are the cases a couple weeks later when we would be seeing the surge....
5/14 648
5/15 653
5/16 666
and here we are over 3 weeks later
yesterday 498
today so far 330(couple hours left)
So....cases in Georgia have continued to drop after opening up. While testing has stayed roughly the same.
This raw data readily available, maybe if you didnt just seek out information that is spun to your particlular political bent....this kind of misinformation can be avoided.
Georgia's phase one of reopening began on 4/24. New cases have been modestly increasing.
https://media.firstcoastnews.com/ass...4_1140x641.png
The reasons why we haven't seen a major surge in GA (so far) are because many people are continuing to shelter at home and practice social distancing and many businesses have remained closed.
Also, it will take more time to see if there's been a significant increase. Right now, it's too early to tell.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
The Atlantic Reports that the CDC has mixed the results of active virus and antibody tests. This is after they bungled the initial test, refused to use the German test. And how many different pronouncements did we get from Fauci , Birx and The Surgeon General about wearing masks ?
In the "lock-down' states the following are open : Liquor stores , pot shops , abortion clinics. Closed are churches , AA meetings and drug counseling. In California, casinos are open but not churches.
Over the last 2 months we have seen a power grab by technocrats designed and intended to limit liberty. Governors , Mayors and County Executives have issued edicts with no legislation. Phil Murphy admitted that he never gave "second's thought to the Bill Of Rights ". Our government was designed to protect our rights to "life , liberty and the pursuit of happiness ". Instead we have had edicts based on experts' opinions that have often proved to be factually delinquent e.g. : "Wear a mask ; don't need a mask : you MUST wear a mask ".
We are humans and humans make mistakes. There is plenty of blame to go around. The issue is what to do now ? The assumption that most people and most businesses cannot walk and chew gum at the same time underlies most of the overbearing and destructive policies that most of us are trying to deal with. I say reopen and reopen NOW. With distancing ; with masks ; with plastic shields and other reasonable precautions. Open up stadiums and arenas and have fans sit in alternate seats in alternate rows to start. Limit elevators to two people at a time. Open up the beaches and parks and the gyms. If I can have my office deep cleaned and sanitized ( twice ) so can gym owners. And if they don't shut them down and let the members who get sick sue.
Historically , we have always balanced liberty with the public interest. Sometimes we go too far one way or the other but we usually get it right. Why can't we do so now ?
This is incorrect (at least for medium to extra large size churches)
Church services and counseling services are available online. The building is closed to mitigate crowds/disease spread but the message and spiritual connection continues no matter where you are online. And people can get their mental health needs met via telehealth.
No one NEEDS to go sit in a packed crowd for these things when they can get the exact same thing remotely during this time. A handful of People at our church admitted they contracted coronavirus in March and it could have easily spread like wildfire had they not closed.
As far as liquor, gambling, weed, abortions and sex.......that’s a topic I don’t have time to debate rn
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
Historically , we have always balanced liberty with the public interest. Sometimes we go too far one way or the other but we usually get it right. Why can't we do so now ?
Well soon I don't think that we will have a choice. The virus is not going away but we cannot afford to keep the lockdowns in place much longer.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
miss.a.p1600
This is incorrect
Churches and counseling are available online. The building is closed to mitigate crowds/disease spread but the message and spiritual connection continues no matter where you are. And people can get their mental health needs met via telehealth.
No one NEEDS to go sit in a packed crowd for these things when they can get the exact same thing remotely during this time.
As far as liquor, gambling, weed, abortions and sex.......that’s a topic I don’t have time to debate rn
No one is advocating "packed crowds ". Far from it. Some , repeat SOME churches and counseling services are available online. Many are not.
Some churches have reopened with distancing and other changes to accommodate the new reality. Most have not. I say this as a spiritual yet irreligious person who is in his third decade of being a recovering Catholic.
I think what a lot of people miss is the fellowship and mutual support a lot of these things provide.
.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
rickdugan
Well soon I don't think that we will have a choice. The virus is not going away but we cannot afford to keep the lockdowns in place much longer.
That's the problem. I think we have locked down too much for too long and it's probably too late now.
On a related note , check out what Cuomo said today after his meeting with Trump. New York will not reopen unless and until it gets Federal aid ? Is he serious ?
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
^agreed.
I edited. Because I am member of a large church and we didn’t skip a beat because our church has always offered online services (which was mainly geared towards people who were incapable of leaving home) but I know smaller churches were hit harder cause they didn’t have the tech to go online.
Our church is still closed but I think it’s because it’s a mega church with a crowd size equivalent to a concert if even 1/3 of the members showed up.
And you’re right fellowship is important to a lot of folks.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
Quote:
Originally Posted by
miss.a.p1600
This is incorrect
Churches and counseling are available online. The building is closed to mitigate crowds/disease spread but the message and spiritual connection continues no matter where you are online. And people can get their mental health needs met via telehealth.
No one NEEDS to go sit in a packed crowd for these things when they can get the exact same thing remotely during this time. A handful of People at our church admitted they contracted coronavirus in March and it could have easily spread like wildfire had they not closed.
As far as liquor, gambling, weed, abortions and sex.......that’s a topic I don’t have time to debate rn
There are a lot of rituals and sacraments that cannot be performed over an Internet connection, so this has indeed disrupted religious practices. Baptisms have been postponed; marriages have been rescheduled; confessions cannot occur; the Eucharist (extremely important to Catholics) cannot be received; first communions and confirmations were delayed; the Torah cannot be touched or carried; holy water cannot be obtained; religious education classes were modified and/or cancelled, etc., etc.
So this has indeed been a tremendous hardship upon religious communities and I agree with Eric wholeheartedly on the absurdity of the contradictions.
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Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge
I’m curious as to going out to eat at restaurants.... what do y’all do to protect yourself?
Do you go to restaurants less crowded? Eat outside? Or y’all still getting it togo?
I got another invite to dine in but I’m honestly questioning it.