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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
We had air supremacy in Korea and ended up with a draw. ( Thanks Doug .) We had it in Vietnam and ultimately lost. The Israelis have it and are still getting bombed and rocketed by Hezbollah and Hamas . I know that is small comfort to Ukrainian victims of Russian bombing but it is historical fact.
I'm aware that air supremacy did not help us as much in Korea and Vietnam, but Russia is willing to do things that we are not. Unlike the U.S. and Israel, Russia is willing to level cities and other structures without concern for civilian casualties. This very critical difference makes their air power a much more potent advantage than it was for us.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
Is there any evidence that Putin has responded to the sanctions ?
Reports from Russia are that the general population has yet to feel any real effects from the sanctions aside from long lines at ATMs. Putin and his cronies certainly haven't missed any meals and a lot of their wealth is in crypto currency and can't be reached. They are still able to shop at most of the luxury stores still open in Russia or in Western Europe.
No, reports from Eric Stoner are that the general population has yet to feel any real effects from the sanctions. The ruble has lost close to 40% of its value. Interest rates are at 20% and will probably go higher. Dozens of western companies are pulling out of Russia. Many western products will no longer be available. Russians can no longer make purchases with Visa, Mastercard, or Apple Pay. Russian aircraft can't fly in Western Europe airspace, and soon won't be able to even fly in Russian airspace, due to lack of parts needed to maintain them. Russia's economy is in very bad shape.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
eagle2
No, reports from Eric Stoner are that the general population has yet to feel any real effects from the sanctions. The ruble has lost close to 40% of its value. Interest rates are at 20% and will probably go higher. Dozens of western companies are pulling out of Russia. Many western products will no longer be available. Russians can no longer make purchases with Visa, Mastercard, or Apple Pay. Russian aircraft can't fly in Western Europe airspace, and soon won't be able to even fly in Russian airspace, due to lack of parts needed to maintain them. Russia's economy is in very bad shape.
What you posted is all true and so far, so what ? I am going by what The New York Times and London Times have reported about everyday life in Russia. Even if ordinary Russians are suffering from the existing sanctions, Putin has absolute control over the country. I have already read reports in both Times and the WSJ about sanction evasion. Mostly through China particularly Chinese banks. There were also demonstrations in London against complicity by British banks. Look up "Giant Washing Machine protest ". Funny and effective if you ask me.
The fact remains that Russia is still selling its oil and gas. And Europe is still one of its best custies. Did you read the Treasury Dept. briefing of March 3, 2022 ? It was no accident it was released late on a Friday afternoon. I did NOT write it or tell our Treasury Dept. what to say. The banking sanctions touted by Biden do NOT apply to Russian energy sales and related bank transactions. There are no sanctions on China for helping Russia evade the existing sanctions.
By NOT listening to Trump back in 2017 ( and even ridiculing him at the time ) Western Europe is now faced with three ( 3 ) choices for the SHORT TERM:
1. They can keep buying oil and gas from Russia thus financing their aggression.
2. They can reopen the nuclear plants they should never have shut down.
3. Burn coal.
Long term they have a few more options including more wind and solar. Imperfect though they may be.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
Is there any evidence that Putin has responded to the sanctions ?
He just did..
Quote:
The Russian economy is far from being destroyed. I question whether it has even been seriously affected. Yet.
You may want to try something like... turn the TV on maybe? Putin responded. Russians are suffering. People are protesting and being jailed in Russia. Putin has/or is planning to ban popular social media networks in russia. Russian influencers are posting videos all over youtube and telegram crying. They are scared and suffering. It's also been reported that the military is being fed food from 2013.
Do you even know what you're arguing about or do you just like to argue for the sake of it? It's weird. Putin himself has censored the media there yet somehow you think you know what's really going on there. All we truly know is what the media, journalists, pundits and russian "influencers" are telling us. If you watch canadian news like i do, you'll answer some of your own questions. Don't be an ostrich.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
techqueen
He just did..
You may want to try something like... turn the TV on maybe? Putin respond. Russians are suffering. People are protesting and being jailed in Russia. Putin has/or is planning to ban popular social media networks in russia. Russian influencers are posting videos all over youtube and telegram crying. They are scared and suffering. It's also been reported that the military is being fed food from 2013.
Do you even know what you're arguing about or do you just like to argue for the sake of it? It's weird. Putin himself has censored the media there yet somehow you think you know what's really going on there. All we truly know is what the media, journalists, pundits and russian "influencers" are telling us. If you watch canadian news like i do, you'll answer some of your own questions. Don't be an ostrich.
Putin responded how ? What has he done to alleviate the suffering caused by the sanctions ? I am not arguing with you. Just asking . If you have better and /or more up to date info I am all eyes and ears.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
What you posted is all true and so far, so what ? I am going by what The New York Times and London Times have reported about everyday life in Russia. Even if ordinary Russians are suffering from the existing sanctions, Putin has absolute control over the country. I have already read reports in both Times and the WSJ about sanction evasion. Mostly through China particularly Chinese banks. There were also demonstrations in London against complicity by British banks. Look up "Giant Washing Machine protest ". Funny and effective if you ask me.
The fact remains that Russia is still selling its oil and gas. And Europe is still one of its best custies. Did you read the Treasury Dept. briefing of March 3, 2022 ? It was no accident it was released late on a Friday afternoon. I did NOT write it or tell our Treasury Dept. what to say. The banking sanctions touted by Biden do NOT apply to Russian energy sales and related bank transactions. There are no sanctions on China for helping Russia evade the existing sanctions.
By NOT listening to Trump back in 2017 ( and even ridiculing him at the time ) Western Europe is now faced with three ( 3 ) choices for the SHORT TERM:
1. They can keep buying oil and gas from Russia thus financing their aggression.
2. They can reopen the nuclear plants they should never have shut down.
3. Burn coal.
Long term they have a few more options including more wind and solar. Imperfect though they may be.
Because in your mind, unless the US and Europe do exactly what you and Trump tell them to do, their policies are failing. You seem to think that as long as Russia is able to sell any gas or oil, the sanctions aren't working, even if Russia's economy is wrecked. According to you, if the US dollar loses 7% of its value, it's an economic disaster, but if the ruble loses 40% of its value, it has no effect on Russia's economy, other than lines at the ATMs.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
Putin responded how ? What has he done to alleviate the suffering caused by the sanctions ? I am not arguing with you. Just asking . If you have better and /or more up to date info I am all eyes and ears.
You said the russian economy isn't suffering, and you're asking me what Putin is doing to alleviate the"suffering caused by the sanctions"?
What is it? Am I missing something? If I missed something, please explain and I'll answer fully.
Seriously though, have you ever left the country? Like do you know what it means to have your currency be worth less than a penny? Between the sanctions and the businesses that are leaving the country, Russia as you've known it won't be the same by the end of the year. I'm an immigrant. My father once told me "whatever you do, don't get in trouble in America. If America wants you, they'll get you" And I've seen evidence of this time and time again. When America zeros in on someone, it's game over. There isn't very much you can do when you're cut off from the rest of the world. And if China and India assists Putin in bypassing the sanctions they will pay. All of this is just the tip of the iceberg. You have no idea how much those people (the russians) are going to suffer for decades to come because of this. Forget the money, with this move he has made his own people societal outcasts. And to add insult to injury, he's brainwashing them as we speak. What Putin is doing right now is the equivalent of burning your own house down.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
https://youtu.be/utkM1bwlXqE
Ordinary people just want the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. It’s only the reptilian like elites that seem to have an insatiable appetite for power and control even if ultimately leads to their own destruction or life as we know it.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
their nukes
This is a bit inaccurate. The troops who controlled those - even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union - always took their orders from Moscow, not Kyiv. So the agreement wasn’t getting Ukraine to surrender strategic weapons they could’ve used as a deterrent against Russia or anyone else - the agreement returned Soviet strategic weapons to Russian physical control as well as operational and removed strategic assets of Russia (the recognized successor state of the Soviet Union) and also targets for the same kinds of weapons out of Ukrainian territory. So no, it isn’t a matter of, “Russia wouldn’t fuck around if Ukraine hadn’t given up their nukes”, it’s more a matter of, “Ukraine would’ve attacked Russian assets and have been seen as a rogue state by Russia and the West alike if they had tried to seized those nukes”.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
Some will not like this but I think it is best if Putin does NOT "lose". Huh ? What ? How can I say that ? Zelensky said yesterday that Ukraine does not want to join NATO. Russia has said that they are willing to keep their Russian majority regions ( where Russians and Ukrainians have been shooting at each other since 2014 btw ) and be satisfied. This would enable Putin to "declare victory and get out. " The sticking point is to get them to withdraw from everywhere else. For now , I don't want to see Putin backed into a corner he can't get out of without dramatic escalation.
Sadly Eric I do not believe that you are alone in this thinking. The longer this goes on the more convinced I am that the current Administration is operating under similar concerns. We continue to need Zelensky to shame us and to witness countless more women and children dying in order to provide more help. In this last aid package we finally decided to provide some Switchblade drones to help knock out tanks and artillery systems being used to shell cities, but it took a constant stream of death for 3 weeks before we finally did even that much.
But even more important, we still refuse to give them weapons that they could use to destroy high altitude bombers and fighters in order to prevent the slaughter of innocent civilians. So the Russians keep bombing schools, hospitals and other civilian shelters. Those MIGs and S-300 surface to air missile defense systems are just sitting there right on the other side of the border and Ukrainians are already trained to use them. We know that Poland and Lithuania are eager to help even more than they have, but we won't let them. Instead we just sit by while children die.
But this is the very definition of "appeasement." Let him have what he wants now so that he doesn't escalate, assuming that he will be satisfied with the win. But do we really think he will be? You know what comes next - first he starts by claiming that one of our NATO allies is harboring Ukrainian "terrorists", then the same ol' song and dance starts all over again.
Alternatively, does anyone really believe that Russia wants a nuclear war any more than we do? Putin has children and grandchildren too. So do the Russian Generals who would have to cooperate with a nuclear launch order. I just don't buy that a loss in Ukraine would be enough for Russia to start launching nukes when they know that the outcome of that would be.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
rickdugan
Eric, experts in the Ukraine and their leaders disagree. They have made it crystal clear, over and over, that their #1 need is more air power so that they can fight or at least slow down the bombings. Given that they are in the thick of it AND have no incentive to lie about their most pressing needs, I'm inclined to believe them. An old MIG that can shoot a missile at a bomber at 25,000 feet is better than no MIG.
After some more facts , opinions from experts and pondering I have changed course. If we can send Ukraine Javelins and other weapons directly then why can't we let Ukrainian pilots fly MIG 29's from Germany back to Ukraine so they can set up their own "no fly zone "? Why is that "escalatory" but direct shipments of weapons is not ?
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
eagle2
Because in your mind, unless the US and Europe do exactly what you and Trump tell them to do, their policies are failing. You seem to think that as long as Russia is able to sell any gas or oil, the sanctions aren't working, even if Russia's economy is wrecked. According to you, if the US dollar loses 7% of its value, it's an economic disaster, but if the ruble loses 40% of its value, it has no effect on Russia's economy, other than lines at the ATMs.
Yeah. I am evolving on this as the facts are becoming clearer. Part of the problem is the limited reporting on the ground from INSIDE Russia.
That said, the fact remains that the U.S. is still sending $20 million a day to Russia to pay for oil sales. Western Europe is doing likewise.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
rickdugan
Sadly Eric I do not believe that you are alone in this thinking. The longer this goes on the more convinced I am that the current Administration is operating under similar concerns. We continue to need Zelensky to shame us and to witness countless more women and children dying in order to provide more help. In this last aid package we finally decided to provide some Switchblade drones to help knock out tanks and artillery systems being used to shell cities, but it took a constant stream of death for 3 weeks before we finally did even that much.
But even more important, we still refuse to give them weapons that they could use to destroy high altitude bombers and fighters in order to prevent the slaughter of innocent civilians. So the Russians keep bombing schools, hospitals and other civilian shelters. Those MIGs and S-300 surface to air missile defense systems are just sitting there right on the other side of the border and Ukrainians are already trained to use them. We know that Poland and Lithuania are eager to help even more than they have, but we won't let them. Instead we just sit by while children die.
But this is the very definition of "appeasement." Let him have what he wants now so that he doesn't escalate, assuming that he will be satisfied with the win. But do we really think he will be? You know what comes next - first he starts by claiming that one of our NATO allies is harboring Ukrainian "terrorists", then the same ol' song and dance starts all over again.
Alternatively, does anyone really believe that Russia wants a nuclear war any more than we do? Putin has children and grandchildren too. So do the Russian Generals who would have to cooperate with a nuclear launch order. I just don't buy that a loss in Ukraine would be enough for Russia to start launching nukes when they know that the outcome of that would be.
I am having second thoughts. Part of me is aware of Putin's biography and the story of the "cornered rat". In interviews Putin described growing up in Leningrad ( now St. Petersburg ) in a communal apartment building full of rats. He would kill them. One day instead of running away he cornered one and he ended up running when the rat attacked him. He said he learned that when you are cornered you have to fight regardless of the possible costs and risks.
A LOT of analysts have likened Putin to a cornered rat and expressed concern over what he might do if he doesn't have a way out. Obviously the fear is that he will get desperate and use tactical nukes or chemical weapons. Some have said we have to "defeat" Putin and "punish" his aggression. I get it. In a perfect world we could , would and should do so. It's not a perfect world. Which is why I still say a negotiated end is the most realistic end game .
Shifting gears, I am starting to see and hear reports that the performance of the Russian Army is even worse than initially reported. One said that a Russian armored battalion was supposed to have 30 tanks but because of corruption it only had 5. The other 25 were sold by Russian generals .
Another issue is April 1. That is the day that enlistments are up for current conscripts. Will they stay in the Army ? Leave ? Who will replace them ?
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
AChildOfBoredom
This is a bit inaccurate. The troops who controlled those - even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union - always took their orders from Moscow, not Kyiv. So the agreement wasn’t getting Ukraine to surrender strategic weapons they could’ve used as a deterrent against Russia or anyone else - the agreement returned Soviet strategic weapons to Russian physical control as well as operational and removed strategic assets of Russia (the recognized successor state of the Soviet Union) and also targets for the same kinds of weapons out of Ukrainian territory. So no, it isn’t a matter of, “Russia wouldn’t fuck around if Ukraine hadn’t given up their nukes”, it’s more a matter of, “Ukraine would’ve attacked Russian assets and have been seen as a rogue state by Russia and the West alike if they had tried to seized those nukes”.
I ought to have been more clear. You are right that those were Russian nukes on Ukrainian soil. However Ukraine agreed to let them go back to Russia and NOT to replace them with nukes of their own.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
I am having second thoughts. Part of me is aware of Putin's biography and the story of the "cornered rat". In interviews Putin described growing up in Leningrad ( now St. Petersburg ) in a communal apartment building full of rats. He would kill them. One day instead of running away he cornered one and he ended up running when the rat attacked him. He said he learned that when you are cornered you have to fight regardless of the possible costs and risks.
A LOT of analysts have likened Putin to a cornered rat and expressed concern over what he might do if he doesn't have a way out. Obviously the fear is that he will get desperate and use tactical nukes or chemical weapons. Some have said we have to "defeat" Putin and "punish" his aggression. I get it. In a perfect world we could , would and should do so. It's not a perfect world. Which is why I still say a negotiated end is the most realistic end game .
Shifting gears, I am starting to see and hear reports that the performance of the Russian Army is even worse than initially reported. One said that a Russian armored battalion was supposed to have 30 tanks but because of corruption it only had 5. The other 25 were sold by Russian generals .
Another issue is April 1. That is the day that enlistments are up for current conscripts. Will they stay in the Army ? Leave ? Who will replace them ?
I don't disagree about the negotiated settlement being the optimal end game at this point. Even if Ukraine had the firepower to keep Russia from gaining any more ground, they certainly don't have the forces or the weaponry to force the Russian army out. Playing defense is very different than playing offense on that large a scale.
But do we really think that Putin is ever going to stop if he thinks he can win? While Russia can continue to drop bombs and shoot missiles into Ukrainian cities from high altitudes with little to no opposition, Putin has time on his side. Ukraine is not Afghanistan or Korea or Vietnam. It is a mostly flat country where a long-term guerilla style resistance would be much harder to pull off. If Putin levels their cities, they have very few places left to hide.
IMHO the only way we force him to the negotiating table is to sow serious doubts about whether he can prevail. That simply will not happen until Ukraine has the ability to knock those bombers and missile carrying fighters out of the sky.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Stoner
After some more facts , opinions from experts and pondering I have changed course. If we can send Ukraine Javelins and other weapons directly then why can't we let Ukrainian pilots fly MIG 29's from Germany back to Ukraine so they can set up their own "no fly zone "? Why is that "escalatory" but direct shipments of weapons is not ?
Don't forget those S-300 surface to air missile defense systems. Like the MIGs, they are also: (1) old Soviet era tech that Ukrainians already know how to use; and (2) sitting right over the border. Zelensky specifically asked for them in his last address to Congress and it makes a lot of sense. The Stingers are only good for a few miles and cannot exceed an altitude of 11,000 feet. That leaves a lot of high altitude airspace for a small number of additional MIGs to cover. Those missiles could make a heck of a difference.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
techqueen
You said the russian economy isn't suffering, and you're asking me what Putin is doing to alleviate the"suffering caused by the sanctions"?
What is it? Am I missing something? If I missed something, please explain and I'll answer fully.
Seriously though, have you ever left the country? Like do you know what it means to have your currency be worth less than a penny? Between the sanctions and the businesses that are leaving the country, Russia as you've known it won't be the same by the end of the year. I'm an immigrant. My father once told me "whatever you do, don't get in trouble in America. If America wants you, they'll get you" And I've seen evidence of this time and time again. When America zeros in on someone, it's game over. There isn't very much you can do when you're cut off from the rest of the world. And if China and India assists Putin in bypassing the sanctions they will pay. All of this is just the tip of the iceberg. You have no idea how much those people (the russians) are going to suffer for decades to come because of this. Forget the money, with this move he has made his own people societal outcasts. And to add insult to injury, he's brainwashing them as we speak. What Putin is doing right now is the equivalent of burning your own house down.
They are trying to create laws to support individual business which suffers the most now. (because of Instagram shutdown and master card sanctions)
They have created their own inner bank system and their own card after the first sanctions in 2014. The sanctions taught them not to rely on western economy too much and if they chose the war path, they are aware it will be sucky. I guess they will be isolated and they will isolate themselves and this sucks too, because hellloooo ussr. Anybody was missing it?:(
Nobody cares about people there. These who work for federal corps will be ok and I guess they think russians will go through it...somehow. People who work for plants that build weapons are paid well, too.
Btw, did you guys watch the video where the editor of russian news stood there with "No War" message while the news were on air? (14th March)
She also posted that she was ashamed of herself because they were lying on TV the whole time and should 've started to worry about it in 2014 already. (I guess when Crimea was annexed)
So you are right about brainwashing. They post the news like "Another drug laboratory controlled by ukrainians was closed in ... region" (in russia).
well, shit:(
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
I really hope it gets resolved soon!
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
https://youtu.be/slZvbRj0naE
Great resource when the world feels too crazy. My teacher said world peace starts with peace in ourselves. Not trying to spiritual bypass this horrific tragedy, but something to bring you back to center.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
From speaking to my friends in Eastern Europe, the world is irrevocably changed for a decade at least. Commodities, border issues, migration, security agreements, and international collaboration will all reflect the fact that the Pax Mundi is effectively over. Additionally, no nuclear power will ever give up its nukes again in exchange for "security".
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bahuba
Additionally, no nuclear power will ever give up its nukes again in exchange for "security".
Ukraine never actually had those - someone else had them positioned in Ukraine, and they were always under Moscow’s control. There was never any realistic scenario where Ukraine was going to gain control of those. The agreement really just allowed Russia to remove Russian strategic assets (and a certain target for NATO in the event a nuclear exchange did occur) out of the country.
In other news, Russia is claiming to have killed the Canadian sniper known as Wali. Ukraine says otherwise.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/en.as.c...97920.amp.html
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
AChildOfBoredom
Ukraine never actually had those - someone else had them positioned in Ukraine, and they were always under Moscow’s control. There was never any realistic scenario where Ukraine was going to gain control of those. The agreement really just allowed Russia to remove Russian strategic assets (and a certain target for NATO in the event a nuclear exchange did occur) out of the country.
In other news, Russia is claiming to have killed the Canadian sniper known as Wali. Ukraine says otherwise.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/en.as.c...97920.amp.html
Russia found out about the base in western Ukraine because the cellphones were trying to connect to towers using British area codes, basically Wagner group mercenaries (with links to Moscow) passively scanned the cell network and when these numbers tried to connect to towers they were identified based on intelligence gathering on British bases.
Essentially the only thing dumber than the Russian military leadership are the western volunteers.
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Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
^^Regardless, you'll never see it again - no one will cooperate on nuke removal again. They could have kept them BTW, Russia had no option to use force