Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
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Originally Posted by Djoser link=board=1;threadid=9116;start=msg108453#msg1084 53 date=1084397806
1 - Whether or not he is really at the helm of the nation's economy, he represents the attitude and policies of those who DO attempt to control the economy, to the extent that having him as a figurehead allows them to go ahead with measures that may or may not be beneficial in the long term.
2 - even if it is, the rapidly rising price of gas will bring any possible mild, if not obviously apparent, upward trend to a screeching halt.
1 - I think the key words in that sentence are "attempt" and "may or may not"!
2 - Note that the inflation adjusted cost of gasoline is well below what it was about 25 years ago; it will have to top $3/gallon by a bit to return to that cost level. See
http://www.ghg.net/stuart/gasprice/gasprice.html
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/I..._Inflation.asp
Let me add, to be clear, that I think it is completely appropriate to judge a presidential administration by its conduct of foreign affairs and its position on domestic policies, things which are at least under its control. Judging a president on the economy though is almost like considering the weather, imo.
-Ww
Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
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Originally Posted by Wwanderer link=board=1;threadid=9116;start=msg108521#msg1085 21 date=1084408985
Let me add, to be clear, that I think it is completely appropriate to judge a presidential administration by its conduct of foreign affairs and its position on domestic policies, things which are at least under its control. Judging a president on the economy though is almost like considering the weather, imo.
I don't completely disagree with you there, although like Melonie stated there are ways to stimulate the economy over the short term, and the President will have some input in that.
What I find amusing is how George Dubya is always first in line to take credit whenever some piece of good information on the economy comes out, and whenever some bad news comes out it's always the fault of the previous administration.
Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
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Originally Posted by Richard_Head link=board=1;threadid=9116;start=msg108534#msg1085 34 date=1084410391
George Dubya is always first in line to take credit whenever some piece of good information on the economy comes out, and whenever some bad news comes out it's always the fault of the previous administration.
I am no W fan at all, but it would be less than fair to imply that he invented this practise. All presidents (and many other politicians too) have been doing so for as long as I can recall.
-Ww
Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
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Originally Posted by Tragic-Beauty link=board=1;threadid=9116;start=msg108508#msg1085 08 date=1084407034
I have noticed this.. lately me and my husband have been trying more and more harder just to get by.. 3 years ago he was makin 80k easily... *not bad for ks..* then it trickles to 70.. then 60.. now 50... BUT the food.. rent... EVERYthing has gone up!!! I hope this changes.. becuase i would hate to see it getting worse
Edit: the main reson for his pay going down is because he keeps getting layed off.. then they replace him with someone thats out of the country for less then half the cost...
I feel your pain, I was downsized myself, I like many others ended up having to take a lower paying job. I still do alright but it was like starting from scratch, I lost a ton of stock options, years of service time, and I live with the constant fear of a layoff hitting my new employer. Employers realize jobs are scare too and believe me they will hang it over your head, they know they could replace you with much cheaper labor in a heartbeat and they let you know it, don't be expecting much in terms of raises in that type of an environment. According to the Dept of Labor salaries rose just 0.6% in the first quarter (0.3% in April), that doesn't add up to much when inflation is running at a rate of 3.2%. LOL, I'm making myself depressed.
Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
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Originally Posted by Wwanderer link=board=1;threadid=9116;start=msg108521#msg1085 21 date=1084408985
1 - I think the key words in that sentence are "attempt" and "may or may not"!
2 - Note that the inflation adjusted cost of gasoline is well below what it was about 25 years ago; it will have to top $3/gallon by a bit to return to that cost level. -Ww
The key words in that sentence are actually "figurehead" and "allows", lol.
1. The people who are attempting to control the economy may not actually BE in control--in spite of their probable overconfidence--but their misguided attempts (such as starting a disastrous war to stimulate the economy, or doing everything possible for the rich to get richer so that it will eventually 'trickle down' to those trying to make a f**king living) could well cause a great deal of harm.
2. Whatever the relative price of gasoline might be, if it continues to rise at the present rate, the economy will unquestionably be in a shambles. An inflation rate of 25%, in four or five months, on such a critical commodity, is goddamned scary.
Other than that, I agree with you, especially about presidents claiming success for good results and blaming the lack of it on their predecessor.
Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
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Originally Posted by Wwanderer link=board=1;threadid=9116;start=msg108539#msg1085 39 date=1084410752
I am no W fan at all, but it would be less than fair to imply that he invented this practise. All presidents (and many other politicians too) have been doing so for as long as I can recall.
True, but come on, Dubya is the master of it.
Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
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Originally Posted by Wwanderer link=board=1;threadid=9116;start=msg108539#msg1085 39 date=1084410752
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard_Head link=board=1;threadid=9116;start=msg108534#msg1085 34 date=1084410391
George Dubya is always first in line to take credit whenever some piece of good information on the economy comes out, and whenever some bad news comes out it's always the fault of the previous administration.
I am no W fan at all, but it would be less than fair to imply that he invented this practise. All presidents (and many other politicians too) have been doing so for as long as I can recall.
-Ww
And it is also equally true that every politician who is running for office from the opposing party will blaim the Administration for a rainy day, then if it stops raining blaim them for the drought.
Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
To add to the relative price of gasoline argument, The argument that two bucks "ain't bad" is an exoteric argument based on the concept of real dollars versus nominal dollars. We all live in a world in which
prices and money is in nominal dollars, that is with inflation.
In economics, you can adjust interest rates and prices in terms of real dollars which is the real rate of change after subtracting out
inflation. (Actually you have to take the rates to the limit, subtract out inflation, and then convert back to an appropriate compound rate typically once per year or 12 times per year)
Our economy needs to see fuel prices constant or near constant for stability in prices. That's why an increase from $1.30 in December 2002 for regular to $2.01 per gal. now is inflationary. It is added into the cost of everything transported.
The change from winning the first gulf war in 1991 when fueld prices came down and stayed down for about the next ten years isw that China and India are waking up and buying stuff for a consumer society. That's about two billion people in lets say 1 billion household units buying cars and stuff. That's alot of gasoline in a tight supply situation.
In short you have two billion people added into the consumer world society bidding up gasoline and other commodity prices.
While for the world in the long term this is probably a good thing, for americans it is not necessarily good in the short run because we will have to meet the increased price for commodities to run our"stuff"
or you shoudl all plan on taking the bus more often.
Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
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To be fair there is a fundamental shift in the world economny happening that is hitting all of us and Bush probably doesn't have a clue about it. Twenty years ago when just thinking
about the future I had imagined that the advent of robots about now would pub alot of people out of work. Instead we have massive
outsourcing... but the robots are about ten years away I think
A whole lot of this has taken place already in the form of automation. While automatic machinery does not equal fully programmable robotics, it does achieve the same end result for industry - invest a lot of money in "hardware", but afterwords be able to produce two or three times as much product as one person used to produce. The motivations for doing this in the "first world" are clear. Every worker must not only be paid the going rate, but the corporate employer must also pay workmen's comp, disability, health insurance, gov't sponsored retirement benefits, corporate sponsored retirement benefits, etc. The peripheral costs can very well add up to 40-50% of each worker's basic hourly rate. So every technological development which allows the employer to produce more using less workers results in tremendous savings. Outsourcing does the same thing even better (from the employer's standpoint), because there is no huge investment required in automated equipment.
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The change from winning the first gulf war in 1991 when fueld prices came down and stayed down for about the next ten years isw that China and India are waking up and buying stuff for a consumer society. That's about two billion people in lets say 1 billion household units buying cars and stuff. That's alot of gasoline in a tight supply situation
The growth of the Chinese and Indian middle class, creating huge new demand for middle class consumer goods like cars and gasoline, is indeed a huge new factor. Their demand for consumer goods has affected the world price of other basic commodities like copper, aluminum and steel, even more than the oil/gasoline market. This in turn affects the price of everything made and sold in the world which uses copper, aluminum and steel in it's manufacture.
If you want to look at the future very realistically, on a global level there are now too many people for the resources of the world to support - at least to support with a middle class lifestyle. "First world" standards of living have reached a peak, and have already retreated from that peak.
"Third World" people, or at least a few of them, have realized that their lifestyles can NEVER improve unless it occurs at the expense of someone else located somewhere else in the world. This is the reason that Chinese and Indian people, or at least some of them, are willing to work so hard for what to us seem like small improvements in their lifestyle. This is the reason that other people (and their governments) wish to take by force those resources which contribute at a basic level to a middle class lifestyle. Whether or not these other people choose to share the spoils with their fellow countrymen on an equal basis, however, is a whole 'nuther story (i.e. the seeds of world war 3).
But I do know this - if the price of oil, natural gas, gasoline, copper, aluminum, steel etc. double from where they are now, the "first world" middle class consumer economy as we know it will cease to exist.
Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
Economic growth was slowing dramatically well before Bush ever took office. The recent slowdown was neither Bush's fault nor his predecessors. Allen Greenspan has much more control over the economy than either the president or congress. We should all be greatful for that.
Any politician who promises to create x number of jobs is not only lying, he's insulting us all by thinking we're too stupid to know any better. He's also saying the he has no good ideas and has to make up a phony one to try to get elecetd.
Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wwanderer link=board=1;threadid=9116;start=msg108539#msg1085 39 date=1084410752
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard_Head link=board=1;threadid=9116;start=msg108534#msg1085 34 date=1084410391
George Dubya is always first in line to take credit whenever some piece of good information on the economy comes out, and whenever some bad news comes out it's always the fault of the previous administration.
I am no W fan at all, but it would be less than fair to imply that he invented this practise. All presidents (and many other politicians too) have been doing so for as long as I can recall.
-Ww
Most notably the oft-repeated slogan, "It's the economy, stupid!" Oh, how quickly they forget.
Re:Is our Economy Really Improving?
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Originally Posted by FONDL link=board=1;threadid=9116;start=msg108718#msg1087 18 date=1084456434
Allen Greenspan has much more control over the economy than either the president or congress. We should all be grateful for that.
Thank you Fondl, for bringing this up, I'm surprised noone else has. Without him at the helm (as much as anyone could claim to be), things would probably be a lot worse than they are.