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Thread: financial advice based on primary results ...

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    Default financial advice based on primary results ...

    (snip)"Gartman predicts Democrat win, advises investors to get out
    Posted: January 04, 2008, 11:50 AM by Jonathan Ratner - Market Call

    Calling Democrat Senator John Edwards a “dangerous man,” Dennis Gartman predicted that the Republicans will lose in the U.S. presidential elections regardless of who they run in November."(snip)

    (snip)"“Sen. Edwards wants to do away with all of the Bush tax cuts; wants to raise taxes on investments, and wants to increase taxes materially upon the so-called ‘rich,’” Mr. Gartman wrote in Friday’s edition.

    Fellow Democrat Senator Barack Obama of Illiois also want to repeal tax cuts on the rich and has suggested hiking the 15% dividend tax, he added.

    As for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, Mr. Gartman noted that her tax increase plans are less onerous than those of her counterparts.

    Democratic congressman Charles Rangel, who happens to support Ms. Clinton and is chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, wants a tax surcharge on all annual income above US$500,000, as well as higher taxes for dividend, Mr. Gartman said. While calling him a “likeable guy” with admirable wit, Mr. Gartman labeled Mr. Rangel’s economics “Marxian.”

    “If Edwards is a dangerous man, Mr. Rangel is a loaded guided missile aimed at the U.S. economy,” he wrote.

    So don’t be naive and expect anything but widespread tax hikes when the Democrats take more control of the House, Senate and even the presidency, Mr. Gartman said, adding this will be done “under the dangerous guise of balancing the budget.”

    Expect damage in the capital markets, he added.

    “Getting out while the gettin’ is good is reasonable and wise.”"(snip)

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    Hillary mentioned $250K in the debates last night. I'm in that range and far from rich, believe me. What they don't mention is that the current tax code already starts disallowing itemized deductions and personal exemptions starting in the low $100's (which some dancers reach if they work hard) and rachets upward. Once you reach $250K, you have lost virtually all of those exemptions. And yet aren't making enough to take advantage of the loopholes the really wealthy enjoy. It sucks.

    I'm gonna dig out one of my old Beatles CD's and listen to the lyrics of "Taxman" to remind me that as bad as it is now, it could be even worse.

    "Let me tell you how it will be. There's 1 for you 19 for me."

    But you gotta love this scary reflection on the power of the state:

    "If 5% appears too small...be thankful I don't take it all".

    This was written in the UK back in the 60's and there were tax reforms after these lyrics were written. But the potential for us is clearly present in the here and now.

    Quoted from "Taxman" which is on The Beatles "Revolver" album.


    FBR
    Last edited by FBR; 01-06-2008 at 02:54 PM.
    Once again I have embraced my addiction and have put off the moral dilemma to another day.

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    Banned Katrine's Avatar
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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    Yeah, take your money out now and hide it under your pillow where it can be lost in a fire or robbery. That's great, useless advice.

    Its going to be a bumpy ride, but we don't know exactly what will happen, stick it out unless you are a year away from retirement.

    "Have you ever been to American wedding? Where is the vodka, where's marinated herring?" - GB
    "And do the cats give a shit? No, they do not. Why? Because they're cats."-from The Onion

    Quote Originally Posted by Mia M
    If a cupcake was tossed at me... well, I'd only be upset if it missed my mouth

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    ^^^ Canadian Dollars, Swiss Francs, Euros ? I'm seriously considering a Swiss Franc CD myself ...

    I believe that Mr. Gartner's point was for Americans to get their money out of America before huge Democrat approved tax increases kill the American economy, kill business profits, and kill the value of US dollar denominated investments - not to simply sell off US dollar denominated investments and stuff the US dollars in your mattress. Of course this is far easier for the truly rich to do than for middle class Americans, and it's a nearly impossible feat for 'Joe Sixpack' working class Americans because of the high 'minimum buy-ins' required.

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    I believe that Mr. Gartner's point was for Americans to get their money out of America before huge Democrat approved tax increases kill the American economy, kill business profits, and kill the value of US dollar denominated investments - not to simply sell off US dollar denominated investments and stuff the US dollars in your mattress. Of course this is far easier for the truly rich to do than for middle class Americans, and it's a nearly impossible feat for 'Joe Sixpack' working class Americans because of the high 'minimum buy-ins' required.
    LMAO, huge Democrat approved tax increases? Which candidate is proposing this???? You're much too smart to be buying into this shit so easily Melonie.

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Of course this is far easier for the truly rich to do than for middle class Americans, and it's a nearly impossible feat for 'Joe Sixpack' working class Americans because of the high 'minimum buy-ins' required.
    Joe Six-Pack doesn't even know where Switzerland is, and think that Swiss Franc is the nickname for for some dude named Frank, from Sweden.

    Seriously, I had a friend living here from from Switz. and people were always asking her about Sweden. Constantly.

    This is all too speculative. Recession is inevitable, and we will bounce back.

    "Have you ever been to American wedding? Where is the vodka, where's marinated herring?" - GB
    "And do the cats give a shit? No, they do not. Why? Because they're cats."-from The Onion

    Quote Originally Posted by Mia M
    If a cupcake was tossed at me... well, I'd only be upset if it missed my mouth

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    LMAO, huge Democrat approved tax increases? Which candidate is proposing this????
    For starters, Barack Obama ... raising the income ceiling on SSI taxes, eliminating the Bush income tax rate rollback, eliminating AMT relief, eliminating the Bush tax rate rollback on capital gains and dividends ...

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    For starters, Barack Obama ... raising the income ceiling on SSI taxes, eliminating the Bush income tax rate rollback, eliminating AMT relief, eliminating the Bush tax rate rollback on capital gains and dividends ...

    http://schotlinepress.wordpress.com/...er-taxes-fair/
    A bit of a distortion don't ya think??? Most of that is directed towards only those in the top brackets.

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    ^^^ well, that is probably true on the face of things ... however it is certainly arguable that higher taxes would affect people with earnings down to $75k a year or so. This is the reason that Hilary Clinton parts ways from Obama and Edwards on proposed tax increases, since she realizes that $75k per year encompasses a fairly wide cross section of residents in states like NY, CA, NJ, MA, PA, IL etc.

    Since this is a dancer's site, it is also important to point out that the primary economic 'engine' for strip clubs is the discretionary spending by customers earning $75k per year and up. Thus these proposed tax increases will have a direct impact on the very people upon whom most dancers now depend for their livelihood.

    I must also point out that increasing taxes on capital gains and dividends will have a large indirect impact on tens of millions of 'Joe Sixpacks' even though Joe may not be directly impacted by capital gains and dividend taxes. The reason of course is that Joe's 401k / IRA normally consists of stock and bond investments ... stock and bond investments whose market prices are dependent on the buying or selling habits of people who fall into your 'top brackets'. If/when capital gains taxes double, those investors who fall into your 'top brackets' will be prompted to sell off stocks in search of different investments which provide a higher after-tax rate of return (i.e. tax free muni bonds or foreign stocks to name a couple of examples), which is likely to depress US stock market prices thus the value of Joe Sixpack's retirement fund.

    And there is another economic school which says that something like 50% of all new job creation has traditionally been the result of small business activity ... small business ventures which are started / operated by people who will clearly fall into your 'top brackets'. As tax rates rise, the risk versus reward equation for taking the 'gamble' of investing in small business ventures will also increase, which is likely to result in less small business investment / activity and thus less new job creation.
    Last edited by Melonie; 01-08-2008 at 09:33 PM.

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    ^^^I think we've beaten this topic to death on other threads but I just don't buy your math. Where are you getting this $75K number from? I'm guessing the number would be much higher. How many strip club customers do you really think make even $75K a year? Certainly some but not what I would call the economic 'engine' that drives strip clubs, I would think that the so-called Joe Sixpacks out there are the ones who would be considered the economic 'engine' of the typical strip club. Did Bill Clinton kill the economy with his tax policies? I hardly think so and I hardly think a democrat in the white house in 2008 (ok technically 2009) would do so. You're doing nothing but repeating a common fear tactic that republicans use every time an election nears.

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    ... the $75k threshold stems from calculations based on expiration of AMT relief plus expiration of GWB's 2003 tax rate reductions, which when combined with another year's projected inflation rate will cause noticeable tax increases for single persons earning as little as $75k.

    As to the NUMBER of strip club customers earning $75k per year versus say $40k per year, you are correct that the CLUB doesn't see much difference in earnings as both pay the cover charge, both buy drinks etc. However, where dancer incomes are concerned, it is the one $75k customer who is likely to buy several private dances or likely to buy an hour in the VIP room or likely to give a memorable tip, whereas half a dozen $40k customers will balk over buying two private dances versus one and pinch dollars stageside.

    Agreed that this is a philosophical argument, with no positive proof that the Kennedy tax cuts / Reagan tax cuts / GWB tax cuts / 'contract with America' tax cuts signed by Bill Clinton (under duress) were the exclusive reason that the US economy did reasonably well. Similarly there is no positive proof that the LBJ tax increases / Jimmy Carter tax increases / Bush 1 tax increases (signed under false promises) were the exclusive reason that the US economy did relatively poorly. But there is a ton of 'anecdotal' evidence !!! However, it's difficult to draw specific conclusions for either the Clinton administration or the GWB admininstration, since both were the subject of large one time events (Clinton = end of cold war defense spending, GWB = economic fallout from 9/11 attack)

    At any rate, the 'tin foil hat' crowd will tell you that there are a number of economic conservatives out there that are actually hoping for a big Obama victory next november, followed by 4 years worth of increased taxes and increased social welfare spending. Their hope is of course based on conjecture that by the time the 2012 election rolls around, the consequences of such policies should be obvious even to Joe Sixpack average voter that the political / economic pendulum will swing in the opposite direction. They see this as a more positive alternative 4 years from now than electing another republican president who continues to follow RINO economic policies. However, IMHO this line of thought is too dependent on Joe Sixpack actually being able to connect the dots ... which he has yet to do in regard to the 2006 congressional election versus today's economic situation re food prices, energy prices, etc.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 01-08-2008 at 10:51 PM.

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Richard_Head View Post
    ^^^I think we've beaten this topic to death on other threads but I just don't buy your math. Where are you getting this $75K number from? I'm guessing the number would be much higher. How many strip club customers do you really think make even $75K a year? Certainly some but not what I would call the economic 'engine' that drives strip clubs, I would think that the so-called Joe Sixpacks out there are the ones who would be considered the economic 'engine' of the typical strip club. Did Bill Clinton kill the economy with his tax policies? I hardly think so and I hardly think a democrat in the white house in 2008 (ok technically 2009) would do so. You're doing nothing but repeating a common fear tactic that republicans use every time an election nears.
    Clinton's tax policies came on the virtual cusp of a huge economic upswing, I seriously doubt we're going to back in the upswing by 09'. Also I really don't remember any of Clinton's tax policies to be extremely agressive on the wealth. As to that being a scare tactic, pretty much the same as the Dems shouting that the poor are about to get screwed if a Rep. is elected.

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    I remember in 1992 when Bill Clinton won a friend removed all of his money from the stock market. That turned out well.

    The truth is presidents don't make that much of a difference and neither party is the evil.

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    Default Re: financial advice based on primary results ...

    I remember in 1992 when Bill Clinton won a friend removed all of his money from the stock market. That turned out well.
    actually, it turned out well because New Gingrich and the (then) newly elected republican congressional majorities in 1994 were able to 'bottle up' Clinton's plans for tax and spending increases. This was followed up with a republican led 1997 cut in the capital gains tax rate which Clinton reluctantly signed, which in turn threw the US stock market into overdrive while at the same time vastly increasing US tax revenue collections. Arguably, had Clinton been able to carry forward with his tax and spend policies from 1993-4, the 90's would have had a far different outcome from an economic standpoint.

    So yes I agree completely that presidents do not have any major hand in the national economy. THAT power falls to the US congress. Arguably this is an obvious point to anyone that bothers to connect the dots since the change to a Democratic congressional majority after the 2006 election. When the president and the congressional majority are in opposition, all that can usually happen is that the two forces 'contain' each other ... which is of dubious value under current circumstances since both forces like to spend tax money much too freely ! However, when the president and the congressional majority are of the same party, as the author anticipates after the upcoming election, it is THEN that serious changes can be made.

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