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Thread: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    Is this the end of Hillary's campaign or will she soldier on ?
    Will her choking up and getting misty create empathy or generate serious questions about her ability to handle the demands of the Presidency ?
    Were those tears for her country or was it just her own anger , disappointment and frustration at being cheated out of what was supposed to be her "inevitable" coronation ?

    Personally, I think she will fight on and try to use Obama's race against him by subtly arguing that America is not ready to elect a Black President and thus he is not "electable". Fortunately, I don't think it will work because we have matured sufficiently to the point where Obama's race is either irrelevant or an asset. He's won two of the "whitest" states in the country.
    Republican strategists already know that it will be almost suicidal to go after Obama on race and that it could irreparably damage the Republicans if they do. Even a nutcase like Ann Coulter is probably smart enough to keep her mouth shut.
    Um, wait a minute. Well she's never been gracious or civil before so who knows ?

    It's looking like a BIG win for Obama; maybe as much as 20- TWENTY points.
    All the Dems are writing off Michigan because their delegates are ineligible so it's on to Nevada and South Carolina.

    What to watch for- How many Hillary supporters jump ship and come out for Obama especially Black elected politicians and MONEY people. The first group is used to being caught on the losing side and might like the change. The MONEY people NEVER like to back a loser.

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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    As of 3:00 P.M. New Hampshire was reporting record turnout in relatively mild ( for N.H.) weather). Some seacoast districts were receiving extra ballots as total turnout is expected to reach a record 500,000 voters.

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    God/dess Casual Observer's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    Dude, don't kill yourself, but she won NH by a decent margin.

    This doesn't surprise locals here.
    Idealism is fine, but as it approaches reality, the costs become prohibitive.

    William F. Buckley, Jr.

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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    Has anyone pinned down the explanation for Hilary's win ? The Female factor ? The fact that she is not quite as supportive of tax increases on the 'middle class' as Obama or Edwards ? A fervent wish for National Health Care ?

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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    Mel i think the indies voted Republican ( McCain) and left Hillary and Obama to the Dems. Of course thats my theory... But she did win the Female vote but i still think the indies felt the Dems were decided and felt like making sure McCain beat Romney.

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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    alot of the talking heads are now saying they think that what Eric desrcibed as a meltdown ( really over dramatic description, btw) actually gave her the edge yesterday in N.H.


    so much for her show of emotion being the end for her campaign,eh?

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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    Quote Originally Posted by Casual Observer View Post
    Dude, don't kill yourself, but she won NH by a decent margin.

    This doesn't surprise locals here.
    I based my posts on the most recent polls which had her trending DOWN.
    Obviously, the polls were wrong and I was wrong.

    Women went for Hillary by a substantial margin especially Independents; as much as 13% more than Obama. Yet she only "won" by 2 points. Clearly Obama has to change a flat tire and play catch-up. So far, he's run better when he's behind and Hillary has stumbled when she is ahead so we shall see.

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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tara_SW View Post
    alot of the talking heads are now saying they think that what Eric desrcibed as a meltdown ( really over dramatic description, btw) actually gave her the edge yesterday in N.H.


    so much for her show of emotion being the end for her campaign,eh?
    It was for Muskie in 1972 even though he won N.H. over McGovern.

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    Pamela
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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    Oh Eric Hillary is not going to say anything about Obama being a black man and president!!!! That's absurd to even think.

    C'mon give credit where it is due.

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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pamela View Post
    Oh Eric Hillary is not going to say anything about Obama being a black man and president!!!! That's absurd to even think.

    C'mon give credit where it is due.
    Not in those words she's not. The Clintons are a lot of things but stupid they are not. What they WILL do, and already have btw, is subtly inject his race by talking about "experience" and "ELECTABILITY". Donna Brazile ripped Bill a new one for doing just that.

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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    ^^^Agreed, but my question is how much will Obama hit back with female + president? In my opinion, a safer attack, than going after race.

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    Pamela
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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Not in those words she's not. The Clintons are a lot of things but stupid they are not. What they WILL do, and already have btw, is subtly inject his race by talking about "experience" and "ELECTABILITY". Donna Brazile ripped Bill a new one for doing just that.
    Eric i don't think that has nothing to do with race. His lack of knowledge would seem more appropriate.

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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    There was some interesting speculation floating around today as to why Obama was able to carry a big victory in a 'caucus' primary but lost in a 'secret ballot' primary election. The speculation was that since 'caucus' votes are not private, voters were reluctant to NOT cast a politically correct vote for Obama in front of fellow voters. However, in a truly 'secret ballot' scenario, political correctness was put aside in favor of other minor issues like experience / past voting record / stated policies. This same theory of pressure to take a politically correct position in public, but taking a different position in total privacy, also explains why the New Hampshire polls were 'off'. The theory is generally referred to as the 'Bradley Effect' .



    (snip)"One theory is that voters contacted by pollsters are more likely to say they support a black candidate running against a white candidate out of desire to seem progressive. Social psychologists called this “social desirability” – the urge to act in ways that one believes his or her environment finds appropriate.

    In a February 2007 article, the Pew Research Center noted that this effect was decidedly less pronounced in 2006. While black candidates lost four of five statewide races against white opponents, the polling tended to reflect this. “Taken together,” it states, “the accuracy of the polling in these five biracial elections suggests that the problems that bedeviled polling in the 1980s and early 1990s may no longer be so serious.”

    If Clinton sustains her lead, however, all future polls between her and Obama will be suspect.

    Update 11:35 p.m.: Jon Krosnick, a Stanford social psychologist and polling methodology expert, points out that evidence for the Bradley Effect is largely anecdotal. There is, however, a large body of research on the effect of the gender and race of an interviewer, both in person and over the phone, and Krosnick points out another scenario:

    “People are startlingly good at detecting the race of a person over the phone,” Krosnick told me. An interviewer who is perceived to be black by the respondent can subconsciously influence an undecided voter in favor of a black candidate—something Krosnick describes as a “priming of positive images.” But the same could apply to on-the-fence voters who have some reservations about supporting a female candidate, but are subtly influenced by a capable female interviewer. (The same might hold true in the negative, but people are much more likely to hang up on incompetent interviewers before the interview is complete.)

    “You can make up the story either way,” Krosnick says. But he was doubtful that this sort of effect was responsible on its own for the differential between Obama’s lead in the polls and Clinton’s victory tonight: “I just don’t see how you get the discrepancy.”

    If the Bradley Effect becomes an issue moving forward in the Democratic race, look for the pollsters to fall back on their blanket defense: The polls were correct, but the voters changed without telling anybody."(snip)


    for some history on the Bradley Effect see

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    Default Re: Hillary's "Muskie Meltdown" in N.H.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    There was some interesting speculation floating around today as to why Obama was able to carry a big victory in a 'caucus' primary but lost in a 'secret ballot' primary election. The speculation was that since 'caucus' votes are not private, voters were reluctant to NOT cast a politically correct vote for Obama in front of fellow voters. However, in a truly 'secret ballot' scenario, political correctness was put aside in favor of other minor issues like experience / past voting record / stated policies. This same theory of pressure to take a politically correct position in public, but taking a different position in total privacy, also explains why the New Hampshire polls were 'off'. The theory is generally referred to as the 'Bradley Effect' .

    http://slate.com/blogs/blogs/trailhe...ing-obama.aspx

    (snip)"One theory is that voters contacted by pollsters are more likely to say they support a black candidate running against a white candidate out of desire to seem progressive. Social psychologists called this “social desirability” – the urge to act in ways that one believes his or her environment finds appropriate.

    In a February 2007 article, the Pew Research Center noted that this effect was decidedly less pronounced in 2006. While black candidates lost four of five statewide races against white opponents, the polling tended to reflect this. “Taken together,” it states, “the accuracy of the polling in these five biracial elections suggests that the problems that bedeviled polling in the 1980s and early 1990s may no longer be so serious.”

    If Clinton sustains her lead, however, all future polls between her and Obama will be suspect.

    Update 11:35 p.m.: Jon Krosnick, a Stanford social psychologist and polling methodology expert, points out that evidence for the Bradley Effect is largely anecdotal. There is, however, a large body of research on the effect of the gender and race of an interviewer, both in person and over the phone, and Krosnick points out another scenario:

    “People are startlingly good at detecting the race of a person over the phone,” Krosnick told me. An interviewer who is perceived to be black by the respondent can subconsciously influence an undecided voter in favor of a black candidate—something Krosnick describes as a “priming of positive images.” But the same could apply to on-the-fence voters who have some reservations about supporting a female candidate, but are subtly influenced by a capable female interviewer. (The same might hold true in the negative, but people are much more likely to hang up on incompetent interviewers before the interview is complete.)

    “You can make up the story either way,” Krosnick says. But he was doubtful that this sort of effect was responsible on its own for the differential between Obama’s lead in the polls and Clinton’s victory tonight: “I just don’t see how you get the discrepancy.”

    If the Bradley Effect becomes an issue moving forward in the Democratic race, look for the pollsters to fall back on their blanket defense: The polls were correct, but the voters changed without telling anybody."(snip)


    for some history on the Bradley Effect see http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campa...=45&pid=268328
    There were a number of factors at work and closet racism probably played a role, albeit a small one. More important was that Obama's campaign and his supporters were made overconfident by his double digit lead in the polls and his "get out the vote" operation could not compete with Hillary's. It looks like a lot of likely Obama voters figured he had it won anyway and stayed home.
    Prior to Iowa, Hillary was leading in New Hampshire and she had strong party
    and union support as well as ALL the feminist groups like NOW. Her operation took their lead from her. To her credit, Hillary didn't quit and fought for every vote.
    Hillary also scored big among working mothers and single mothers who overwhelmingly were moved by her "emotional moment" and understood the effects of multi-tasking. She literally got a substantial "sympathy" vote.
    We ought to keep in mind that Obama's final numbers ( 37% ) were within the margin of error in the polling and that the polls got it right on McCain.
    It should also be remembered that New Hampshirites have along history of independence and contrarianism i.e. they don't like to be told how to vote and prefer to make up their own minds.

    Personally, I hope Obama and his campaign have learned their lesson and will re-double their efforts and will keep in mind that the only poll that really matters is the election tally. He has now seen how tough the Clintons are when it comes to politics and that there is no quit in Hillary.

    Btw, Richardson is dropping out ( look for him to endorse Hillary ) and John Kerry
    has endorsed Obama.

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