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Thread: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

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    Default Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    There is a building consensus that perhaps a short and mild recession is inevitable and necessary. They are a natural part of the business cycle, painful though they may be for some. If the Fed continually cuts rates for no rational reason other than to avoid one, eventually we'll have a serious crash.

    Worse yet, the politicians, including Bush, are starting to yap about stimulus packages and tax cuts. Without genuine tax reform, simply cutting rates would be counter-productive at least in the short term by increasing an already too large deficit. A recession would also provide a badly needed reality check to politicians anxious to promote new programs when we can't even pay for the ones we have.

    While painful, recessions have a way of culling the economic herd by cleaning out dead wood and promoting efficiency among the survivors. Rather than let cripples limp along as Romney and Clinton advocate; maybe we should bite the bullet and force lenders to write off bad debt.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    . Rather than let cripples limp along as Romney and Clinton advocate; maybe we should bite the bullet and force lenders to write off bad debt.
    Who is "we" and how do any of us individually have ANY control on when and how we are going into a recession? This discussion is moot. Its happening as we speak, and we'll recover just like we do everytime.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    the only problem is that todays 'lenders' are different from the 'lenders' in the 1930's. In the 1930's the lenders were American. Today the lenders are from anywhere BUT America. Thus gov't policy that forces foreign lenders to take huge losses risks those foreign lenders deciding that making future loans to Americans is simply too risky of a proposition. Given the negative savings rate of most Americans, if the foreign lenders were to be driven away the American banks will be put in a position of 'gee, I'd love to approve your consumer / car / mortgage loan request, but the bank simply doesn't have any money to lend you !". Thus a Fed policy accepting a 'mild recession' might wind up causing a deep depression if Fed action spooks foreign investors upon whom America is now totally dependent to maintain 'velocity of money' to the tune of 3 billion additional loan dollars every single day.

    THIS is what the Fed rate cuts and new money printing are all about, trying to cover up for the fact that Americans collectively owe far more money than they save / invest - and money that can only hope to be repaid if the American economy stays liquid (and the dollar is devalued ) !

    However I agree with Katrine that the problem is already too deep for a nasty recession to possibly be avoided. The giveaway statistic is rising credit card delinquencies on top of rising mortgage delinquencies. Basically, the US consumer has run out of new lines of credit, as a result of that the US consumer will be forced to reduce spending, and as a result of that US business activity / US business profits will decline significantly.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    the only problem is that todays 'lenders' are different from the 'lenders' in the 1930's. In the 1930's the lenders were American. Today the lenders are from anywhere BUT America. Thus gov't policy that forces foreign lenders to take huge losses risks those foreign lenders deciding that making future loans to Americans is simply too risky of a proposition. Given the negative savings rate of most Americans, if the foreign lenders were to be driven away the American banks will be put in a position of 'gee, I'd love to approve your consumer / car / mortgage loan request, but the bank simply doesn't have any money to lend you !". Thus a Fed policy accepting a 'mild recession' might wind up causing a deep depression if Fed action spooks foreign investors upon whom America is now totally dependent to maintain 'velocity of money' to the tune of 3 billion additional loan dollars every single day.

    THIS is what the Fed rate cuts and new money printing are all about, trying to cover up for the fact that Americans collectively owe far more money than they save / invest - and money that can only hope to be repaid if the American economy stays liquid (and the dollar is devalued ) !

    However I agree with Katrine that the problem is already too deep for a nasty recession to possibly be avoided. The giveaway statistic is rising credit card delinquencies on top of rising mortgage delinquencies. Basically, the US consumer has run out of new lines of credit, as a result of that the US consumer will be forced to reduce spending, and as a result of that US business activity / US business profits will decline significantly.
    I would agree with you Melonie, but where are those lenders going to go? Even if it's risky they still have to do business with us simply because theres not enough of a market anywhere else to make up for it. If our economy is hurting so are all the others. The chinese are not going to start borrowing like crazy anytime soon. It the same deal as when the Canadians got pissed over the whole "pulpwood" issue. They can bitch and complain all they want, but at the end of they day, if they don't sell their goods to us, then their goods aren't going to get sold.
    Last edited by jester214; 01-15-2008 at 11:04 AM.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Europe... Argentina, Chile, and Brazil... Australia...

    No money... no product. It's pretty simple.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Well something better happen soon because now there are rumblings that
    Moody's is going to downgrade U.S. Government Debt from Triple "A" to double "A".

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    the only problem is that todays 'lenders' are different from the 'lenders' in the 1930's. In the 1930's the lenders were American. Today the lenders are from anywhere BUT America. Thus gov't policy that forces foreign lenders to take huge losses risks those foreign lenders deciding that making future loans to Americans is simply too risky of a proposition. Given the negative savings rate of most Americans, if the foreign lenders were to be driven away the American banks will be put in a position of 'gee, I'd love to approve your consumer / car / mortgage loan request, but the bank simply doesn't have any money to lend you !". Thus a Fed policy accepting a 'mild recession' might wind up causing a deep depression if Fed action spooks foreign investors upon whom America is now totally dependent to maintain 'velocity of money' to the tune of 3 billion additional loan dollars every single day.

    THIS is what the Fed rate cuts and new money printing are all about, trying to cover up for the fact that Americans collectively owe far more money than they save / invest - and money that can only hope to be repaid if the American economy stays liquid (and the dollar is devalued ) !

    However I agree with Katrine that the problem is already too deep for a nasty recession to possibly be avoided. The giveaway statistic is rising credit card delinquencies on top of rising mortgage delinquencies. Basically, the US consumer has run out of new lines of credit, as a result of that the US consumer will be forced to reduce spending, and as a result of that US business activity / US business profits will decline significantly.
    Where else are these foreign lenders going to put their money ?

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Quote Originally Posted by jester214 View Post
    I would agree with you Melonie, but where are those lenders going to go? Even if it's risky they still have to do business with us simply because theres not enough of a market anywhere else to make up for it. If our economy is hurting so are all the others. The chinese are going to start borrowing like crazy anytime soon. It the same deal as when the Canadians got pissed over the whole "pulpwood" issue. They can bitch and complain all they want, but at the end of they day, if they don't sell their goods to us, then their goods aren't going to get sold.

    Generally I agree but one little quibble. Didn't you mean to say: "The Chinese
    are NOT going to start borrowing like crazy anytime soon." ?

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Another piece of good news- Citigroup is writing off as much as $18 billion in bad loans.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    ^^^ Let's not forget they are laying off like 20,000 people.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Where else are these foreign lenders going to put their money ?
    compared to an elevated probability that they're going to have losses in principal and interest rammed down their throats by a US gov't bailout plan, plus losses on exchange rate rammed down their throat by agressive US Fed rate cutting, even investing in their own gov't bonds would be a better alternative !

    keep in mind that we're talking about foreign bank capital investor money that will go to US home mortgages, to new car / boat purchases, and to some extent to credit cards. This has little to do with a curtailment in imported goods purchases ... Americans are going to have to do this anyhow since few US goods manufacturers remain in the first place, and those that do remain have to charge much higher prices for the same goods in order to turn a profit. In large part, the loss of money to fund US mortgage loans / car loans / boat loans will affect US produced goods and US workers (i.e. Honda and Toyota and BMW and damn near every foreign car company now assembles in the USA, and for sure every new house is NOT imported from a foreign country).

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Generally I agree but one little quibble. Didn't you mean to say: "The Chinese
    are NOT going to start borrowing like crazy anytime soon." ?
    Yes I did, and fixed it, thanks for pointing it out.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    compared to an elevated probability that they're going to have losses in principal and interest rammed down their throats by a US gov't bailout plan, plus losses on exchange rate rammed down their throat by agressive US Fed rate cutting, even investing in their own gov't bonds would be a better alternative !

    keep in mind that we're talking about foreign bank capital investor money that will go to US home mortgages, to new car / boat purchases, and to some extent to credit cards. This has little to do with a curtailment in imported goods purchases ... Americans are going to have to do this anyhow since few US goods manufacturers remain in the first place, and those that do remain have to charge much higher prices for the same goods in order to turn a profit. In large part, the loss of money to fund US mortgage loans / car loans / boat loans will affect US produced goods and US workers (i.e. Honda and Toyota and BMW and damn near every foreign car company now assembles in the USA, and for sure every new house is NOT imported from a foreign country).
    I can't see things getting to the point that it would ruin their profits that bad, what we're talking about is Risk. Still I think they'll take the risk simply because anything else will destroy profits, hell some of them will probably do it till it runs them into the ground. Few large conglomerates have the foresight to begin turning away from a problem before it drags them under. Also I don't think this is one of those type of problems.

    Simply put I can't see these people taking a substantial loss in business simply because they have to take risk, they may look for places to hedge their risk, but they won't walk away.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    compared to an elevated probability that they're going to have losses in principal and interest rammed down their throats by a US gov't bailout plan, plus losses on exchange rate rammed down their throat by agressive US Fed rate cutting, even investing in their own gov't bonds would be a better alternative !

    keep in mind that we're talking about foreign bank capital investor money that will go to US home mortgages, to new car / boat purchases, and to some extent to credit cards. This has little to do with a curtailment in imported goods purchases ... Americans are going to have to do this anyhow since few US goods manufacturers remain in the first place, and those that do remain have to charge much higher prices for the same goods in order to turn a profit. In large part, the loss of money to fund US mortgage loans / car loans / boat loans will affect US produced goods and US workers (i.e. Honda and Toyota and BMW and damn near every foreign car company now assembles in the USA, and for sure every new house is NOT imported from a foreign country).
    That's the weird thing.They usually don't which is why everyone is keeping thier eye on what Moody's does.

    My argument, and why I raised the question in the first place, is simple - Maybe a little less consumer spending and BORROWING would be a good thing. It seems high time for EVERYONE to pay down existing and avoid NEW debt.

    While not perfectly analogous because of their whacky import barriers; Japan is nonetheless instructive. Back in the 90's Japan had YEARS of negative economic growth despite a Prime Rate at one time of effectively ZERO. The point being that continual rate cuts by the Fed are just postponing the inevitable Day of Reckoning.
    Sooner or later, ALL bills eventually come due and have to be paid and if we're not careful we could easily see a recession turn into a crash and a much longer and deeper recession than anyone wants. Btw, I am using the term "recession"loosely. Technically it means two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. What I REALLY mean to say is a SLOWDOWN- a reasonable period of slow
    or flat economic growth so that EVERYONE is FORCED to get their affairs back on a sound footing.

    The current Sub-Prime mess is similar to the International Loans of the 80's when major banks like Chase held BILLIONS in non-performing Latin American and to a smaller extent African, Asian and Caribbean loans that they carried for years on their books as "assets". Just as the banks were forced to "re-fi" those loans; they ought to do the same now and give most of the borrowers a chance to keep their homes

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    who is this 'they' you're referring to re backstopping the re-fi of sovereign international loans in the 80's ? By my recollection it was the World Bank. Today the World Bank has no stake in real estate mortgage loans made to individual Americans who can't afford to repay them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    who is this 'they' you're referring to re backstopping the re-fi of sovereign international loans in the 80's ? By my recollection it was the World Bank. Today the World Bank has no stake in real estate mortgage loans made to individual Americans who can't afford to repay them.
    Oh no my favorite Constitutional; limited gov't capitalist- Chase and Citicorp were
    both stuck with BILLIONS in non-performing foreign debt; mostly from Latin
    America. David Rockefeller and other major commercial bank honchos were vilified
    for predatory lending to 3rd World Countries and then expecting the World Bank
    to bail out the borrowers or for the U.S. Gov't to make direct loans and grants so the banks could get THEIR money back; taxpayers be damned. Fortunately; Reagan didn't go along and the banks were forced to renegotiate their loans and ease repayment terms.

    At the time, Castro was telling his fellow Latin Americans to screw the capitalist
    dogs and not bother to repay the loans. How soon we forget.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Robert Reich is not someone I particularly like nor agree with BUT he actually wrote a very good, sensible N.Y. Times OpEd piece today that dovetails nicely with Robert Samuelson's recent column in NEWSWEEK.

    Reich hit the nail on the head by stating that we are not going to be able to spend our way out of this economic slowdown /recession. The "rich" do not buy enough and they are primarily investors anyway as opposed to consumers. The middle class is tapped out. Inadequate savings and inability to take on more debt plus stagnant wages have decreased their buying power.
    What Reich doesn't bother to mention is the increased bite from State & Local taxes which is why his prescribed remedy of a "middle class" tax cut ( you know, the one B.J. Clinton promised and never delivered and the one Hillary says NOTHING about ) is not going to improve things.

    Samuelson points out the failure of the Federal Government to GOVERN which means CHOOSING. Instead, we've had hundreds of billions poured into Iraq; no caps on entitlements ; NCLB and a Medicare Prescription Drug benefit resulting in a $400 billion dollar deficit not to mention billions and billions in Earmarks. Even with a return to Clinton's tax rates there is NOT going to be enough revenue to even start a National Health Care plan no matter who is elected.

    If we do get a real recession, there will dramatically reduced revenues which might; repeat MIGHT force some real picking and choosing about what we need vs. what we want.

    Leaving aside the economic benefits of a recession ( Yes, I said benefits. Another word for recession is "correction". ) it might generate some serious fiscal discipline in Washington as well as at City Halls and Statehouses across the country. It might be a long overdue and badly needed dose of REALITY ! It might actually promote some serious GOVERNANCE.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 10-24-2008 at 08:13 AM.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    there's another news story out today that WILL force some serious fiscal discipline on City Halls and State Houses ...



    (snip)" Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bonds sold by U.S. municipal borrowers with rates set through periodic auctions failed to attract enough buyers as banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. that run the bidding won't commit their own capital to the debt.

    Rates on $100 million of bonds sold by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, with bidding run by Goldman, soared to 20 percent yesterday from 4.3 percent a week ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Presbyterian Healthcare in Albuquerque and New York state's Metropolitan Transportation Authority also experienced failures, officials said.

    What began three weeks ago with too few bidders for auction-rate debt backed by relatively small entities, such as Georgetown University and Nevada Power, has widened in recent days to include large issues of state governments, such as New York state's Dormitory Authority. The auction failures provide new indication of Wall Street's unwillingness to commit capital amid $133 billion in credit losses and asset writedowns.

    ``It's the beginning of the end for the auction-rate market,'' said Matt Fabian, a senior analyst with Concord, Massachusetts-based Municipal Market Advisors. ``Banks have stopped supporting the market.''

    Investor demand for the securities has declined on waning confidence in the credit strength of insurers backing the debt, and on reluctance by banks to submit bids and risk ending up with too many of the bonds. Local governments that have borrowed in the $300 billion auction-rate market confront the prospect of higher borrowing costs as economic slowing trims tax revenue. "(snip)

    what I want to know is how I can get ahold of a New York Tax Exempt Muni Bond left over from a failed auction that is paying 20% interest !!!

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    there's another news story out today that WILL force some serious fiscal discipline on City Halls and State Houses ...

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...GI&refer=rates

    (snip)" Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bonds sold by U.S. municipal borrowers with rates set through periodic auctions failed to attract enough buyers as banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. that run the bidding won't commit their own capital to the debt.

    Rates on $100 million of bonds sold by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, with bidding run by Goldman, soared to 20 percent yesterday from 4.3 percent a week ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Presbyterian Healthcare in Albuquerque and New York state's Metropolitan Transportation Authority also experienced failures, officials said.

    What began three weeks ago with too few bidders for auction-rate debt backed by relatively small entities, such as Georgetown University and Nevada Power, has widened in recent days to include large issues of state governments, such as New York state's Dormitory Authority. The auction failures provide new indication of Wall Street's unwillingness to commit capital amid $133 billion in credit losses and asset writedowns.

    ``It's the beginning of the end for the auction-rate market,'' said Matt Fabian, a senior analyst with Concord, Massachusetts-based Municipal Market Advisors. ``Banks have stopped supporting the market.''

    Investor demand for the securities has declined on waning confidence in the credit strength of insurers backing the debt, and on reluctance by banks to submit bids and risk ending up with too many of the bonds. Local governments that have borrowed in the $300 billion auction-rate market confront the prospect of higher borrowing costs as economic slowing trims tax revenue. "(snip)

    what I want to know is how I can get ahold of a New York Tax Exempt Muni Bond left over from a failed auction that is paying 20% interest !!!
    Mel- The interest is taxable by the Feds.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    There is a building consensus that perhaps a short and mild recession is inevitable and necessary. They are a natural part of the business cycle, painful though they may be for some. If the Fed continually cuts rates for no rational reason other than to avoid one, eventually we'll have a serious crash.
    Oooo, good idea! Why don't you quit your job, so that way one of the people that were laid off by the recent downturn in economic activity can continue to feed his family?

    Go ahead. I dare you.

    You know, we gotta "bite the bullet", right?


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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Mel- The interest is taxable by the Feds.
    yes I know. The greater point was that continued deficit spending by the NY Port Authority ... i.e. subsidies to keep NYC subway fares priced far below their true cost to name one example ... is now costing NY taxpayers TWENTY PERCENT in interest on the money the NY Port Authority must continue to borrow.

    In a larger sense, states like NY and NJ and CA and IL are all facing major deficits, which are by definition the difference between the money they are obligated to spend versus the amount of money they take in via tax revenue. To bridge those deficits in the short term, they do exactly what the NY Port Authority just did ... attempt to sell new bonds so they can spend the money now and repay it over the 20 year life of the bond. This is one thing when interest rates on the bonds are 3-4-5% - but quite another thing when interest rates on the bonds will be 20%. States will instantly go bankrupt if next year's budget must include 20% interest payments on top of their already existing spending obligations. I mean California is talking about trying to issue some $35 billion dollars worth of new bonds this year. If the interest rate is 20% the payments on these new bonds alone would add about 7% to next year's California state budget.

    This will lead to either massive state tax increases, or real cutbacks in state gov't spending, or both !

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Paris View Post
    Oooo, good idea! Why don't you quit your job, so that way one of the people that were laid off by the recent downturn in economic activity can continue to feed his family?

    Go ahead. I dare you.

    You know, we gotta "bite the bullet", right?
    You want me to lay myself off ?

    I never said it would be painless and the continual denial and budget chicanery will in fact make the eventual day of reckoning worse than it otherwise would have been. Nonetheless , a recession is a necessary purgative for the economy.

    I don't mean to minimize the angst of being unemployed having been unemployed myself a couple of times but there is unemployment insurance; Food Stamps and other parts of the social safety net.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 10-24-2008 at 08:12 AM.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    yes I know. The greater point was that continued deficit spending by the NY Port Authority ... i.e. subsidies to keep NYC subway fares priced far below their true cost to name one example ... is now costing NY taxpayers TWENTY PERCENT in interest on the money the NY Port Authority must continue to borrow.

    In a larger sense, states like NY and NJ and CA and IL are all facing major deficits, which are by definition the difference between the money they are obligated to spend versus the amount of money they take in via tax revenue. To bridge those deficits in the short term, they do exactly what the NY Port Authority just did ... attempt to sell new bonds so they can spend the money now and repay it over the 20 year life of the bond. This is one thing when interest rates on the bonds are 3-4-5% - but quite another thing when interest rates on the bonds will be 20%. States will instantly go bankrupt if next year's budget must include 20% interest payments on top of their already existing spending obligations. I mean California is talking about trying to issue some $35 billion dollars worth of new bonds this year. If the interest rate is 20% the payments on these new bonds alone would add about 7% to next year's California state budget.

    This will lead to either massive state tax increases, or real cutbacks in state gov't spending, or both !
    The Port Authority has NOTHING to do with the NYC Subway system.It does fund the PATH train.

    The 20% interest rate will be paid until the bonds are redeemed which the P.A. can and will do at any time. The reason it went so high at the auction was because the banks and financial institutions that usually buy the bonds (and then re-sell them at a premium) did not.

    Many states are staring into the fiscal abyss. Their citizens are tapped out and cannot endure further tax increases; their credit ratings have gone into the toilet making it difficult to borrow and spending is out of control. Despite the lessons of New York City and Cleveland in the '70's and Bridgeport in the early 90's the politicians refused to learn and kept spending and spending. Some Republicans
    like Rudy; Pataki and Whitman were just as bad as any Tax & Spend Lib. Dem.

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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    O.K. now we are in a RECESSION. Chrysler just laid off half the workers at its Toledo plant and 25% of its salaried workers. Greenspan says this is a "once in a century event".

    The problem is everyone is running around with different prescriptions for essentially the same problem- too much debt and not enough cash. Greenspan and then Bernanke kept postponing the day of reckoning from at least 2006 on.

    McCain is proposing further tax cuts including corporate tax cuts.

    Obama is proposing higher corporate and upper income taxes with tax cuts to
    the middle class and hand-outs to the lower 40%. Plus all sorts of "pie in the sky" spending.

    Paulson, Bernanke et. al. are buying equity in the banks.

    Reich, Krugman et. al. advocate massive public spending.

    Conservative economists can't agree on what to do. Kudlow supports the bailout.
    Laffer and Feldman prefer propping up home ownership.

    Universities with endowments over a billion dollars are being encouraged to spend it or use it to lower tuition.

    OPEC is cutting production.

    Interest rates are dropping EXCEPT for LIBOR rates.

    The Fed is pumping out cash. Sooner or later that means INFLATION.

    There are over a million foreclosed homes; plus the homes that were built and now can't be sold and as many as a million more in the pipeline. That means homebuilding will be depressed for AT LEAST two years and probably longer.

    And the "baby boomers" are retiring in droves on reduced 401K's.

    The days when we could have been cured by a couple of very slow or slightly negative quarters are long gone. We need a minimum of two years to clean up this mess. Most of all , we need CONSISTENT policy. A primary reason for the stagflation of the '70's was constant shifting and reversal of policy. Nobody could figure out what Nixon and Arthur Burns were up to- tight money vs. loose money; support the dollar vs. let it float culminating in Nixon's idiotic wage & price controls and Ford's "WIN" buttons. Then we had Jimmy Carter and the "misery index" until
    we finally got Reagan and Volcker. Love him or hate him, Reagan stuck to his guns and rode out the deep recession he inherited from Carter until his tax cuts kicked in. We will get out of this if, IF Obama listens to Buffet, Summers and Rubin and sticks to a consistent policy that WILL BE PAINFUL. He's got to let the dead trees fall and stop trying to keep them upright. He MUST let risk be an integral part of our system. Risk is what keeps good money from chasing bad. A major reason for this mess is the deemphasis on risk; the "too big to fail" nonsense. Now it's trying to keep some people in their homes when they have no business being there in the first place i.e. they'll NEVER be able to pay off their mortgages and we shouldn't help them to try.

    Obama is going to have a golden opportunity. He's going to have a Democrat Congress and a press helping him to blame everything on Bush. If, IF he puts solid reforms in place ( instead of worrying about the Fairness Doctrine and other distractions) he will be able to ride a wave of recovery into an easy reelection.
    Otherwise he'l be forced to deal with a Republican Congress in 2010 and crash and burn in 2012. Maybe even in the primaries to Hillary " I told you so" ( said as shrilly as possible, of course.)
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 10-24-2008 at 09:41 AM.

  25. #25
    Featured Member Miss_Luscious's Avatar
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    Default Re: Would a Recession be a bad thing ?

    I agree they should have let this happen sooner. Now it's a HUGE clusterfuck because no one wanted to utter the "R" word. If Obama plays his cards right and makes good decisions, he does have a very good chance of getting the credit for the turn around. I honestly don't think he'll be as leftists as some claim. I think he'll govern more moderately than people think. If he doesn't the Dems are fucked. Please don't disappoint us Barack!
    "A stupid man's report of what a clever man says is never accurate because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand." - Bertrand Russell

    "It's just a matter of people having low self esteem and being way too easily offended." -Random Guy on a Internet Forum

    Quote Originally Posted by Katrine View Post
    Ya'll bitches need to calm down. Cerously.
    In other words: Boo-motherfucking-hoo

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