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Thread: Super Tuesday may be a turning point ...

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    Default Super Tuesday may be a turning point ...

    ... economy wise, given that the current field of four 'major' presidential candidates will probably be narrowed down to two ...

    Barack - supports tax increases, supports social welfare spending increases, supports closing loopholes for the very rich, supports bigger gov't ... could be taken very badly by Wall St., hedge funds etc

    Hilary - supports tax increases, supports social welfare spending increases, does NOT support closing loopholes for the very rich, supports bigger gov't ... would probably be taken as neutral by Wall St., hedge funds etc. Also a big supporter of certain subsidy policies, meaning that solar / ethanol / wind power related stocks could take off.

    McCain - arguably supports tax increases or at least opposes tax cuts, supports social welfare spending increases (via amnesty), arguably supports bigger gov't or at least opposes reduction in gov't ... would probably be taken badly by Wall St, hedge funds etc. However, McCain is seen as being strong on defense, meaning that aircraft / weapons builders / military contractor stocks could take off.

    Romney - supports tax cuts, opposes social welfare spending increases, arguably supports smaller gov't or at least opposes bigger gov't ... would probably be taken very well by Wall St., hedge funds.


    The 'tin foil hat' crowd is of the opinion that, with Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani now out of the running, and with no other candidates besides the abovementioned four actually having a serious chance of getting the nomination, that if Romney is sent packing after the Super Tuesday primary results are in leaving McCain as the likely nominee, no Wall St. or hedge fund response is likely to be positive. And if the Super Tuesday primary results favor Barack over Hilary, expect a very negative response from Wall St. and the hedge funds. However, if Hilary regains momentum the Wall St. response is likely to be more or less neutral.

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    Default Re: Super Tuesday may be a turning point ...

    well by 'pure coincidence' every US stock index was down by more than 3% today. At the same time, Romney appears to be history and Barack + McCain seem to be emerging as the clear front-runners.

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    Default Re: Super Tuesday may be a turning point ...

    It's starting to look like McCain + (Obama or Clinton)

    Right now it seems like a toss up between the Dems... Clinton is ahead by about 100 delegates, whereas Obama supposedly has more support among the "superdelegates"...

    Really wishing Ron Paul did better!

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    Default Re: Super Tuesday may be a turning point ...

    lots of Republicans are so upset over the McCain situation that a 'nuclear option' is already being discusses ...



    (snip)" He claims the mantle of Ronald Reagan. He even claims the mantle of Barry Goldwater, conservatism's crack version of Reagan. But as McCain clinches the GOP nomination, he will begin his usual leftward lurch.

    He will return to his lifelong positions as soft on illegal immigration, skeptical of tax cuts and favoring strong federal control over things like campaign financing.

    McCain's appeal to independents and even the left is what makes him such a powerhouse in the general election.

    It is also precisely what has so many in the Republican base so wildly fearful of handing him the keys to the kingdom.

    If the Republican Party expands "because we have a candidate who's going out trying to attract liberals by being like them, then the party's going to be around but you won't recognize it," thundered radio king Rush Limbaugh.

    The Republican Party will "be over as it exists now," he warns.

    To understand just how McCain has managed to limp to the front of the GOP field, look no further than the outcome of yesterday's West Virginia Republican Convention.

    At the outset, victory was in the air for Mitt Romney, the flip-flopping former Massachusetts governor.

    He is universally loathed by all the other GOP candidates, who banded together to give all their votes to Mike Huckabee - simply to deny Romney a win.

    The depressing GOP field that has paved a path to victory for McCain also gave surprising wins last night to Huckabee in Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee, as well as in his home state of Arkansas.

    Still, McCain has so radicalized key conservatives that some have vowed to turn themselves into suicide voters next November by pulling the lever for Hillary Rodham Clinton over him."(snip)


    Actually, there is some sound logic behind this 'nuclear option'. More conservative voters figure that if taxes are going to be increased, and if social welfare spending is going to be increased, it is far better to have this happen under a Democratic presidency than a Republican one.

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    Default Re: Super Tuesday may be a turning point ...

    ^^^Maybe some will do that, but not enough for it to matter much. Republicans don't do that, Dems might.

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    Default Re: Super Tuesday may be a turning point ...

    Historically, yes. But this time I'm not so sure. The reasoning is that, from an economic standpoint, McCain's tax policies and particularly McCain's de-facto amnesty policy (with the associated massive increase in social welfare benefit costs to provide new benefits to newly 'legalized' residents) could result in a recession that would go on and on right through to the 2012 election.

    The 'tin foil hats' would tell you that this is the same scenario that is likely to apply to a Hilary or Obama presidency with a working majority in the US congress from the standpoint of increased taxes and increased social spending. It is then projected that, like 1980, if this ongoing economic 'malaise' is directly attributable to a Democratic majority then there is the distinct possibility for a major political reversal of tax and spend policies during the 2012 election ... i.e. a replay of 'out with Carter, in with Reagan'. However, if this occurs under a nominally Republican president McCain, the ability to directly associate economic 'malaise' with typically Democratic higher taxes higher spending policies would be greatly reduced.

    It's not appropriate to allow political discussion to dominate Dollar Den threads (even for the moderator LOL). So the only logical thing to do at this point is to see if the recent negative stock market move versus positive primary election results for McCain repeats itself during the next Super Tuesday (which is sometime in March ). If so, then this would provide some degree of confirmation that foreign investors are reacting to an apparent change in direction for US taxation and gov't spending policies.

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    Default Re: Super Tuesday may be a turning point ...

    We'll lets see how the market goes for the next few hours. With Romney out, McCain is the defacto candidate.

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