^^^ I would make the contrary argument that, with world oil supplies so closely tied to worldwide oil demand that a rumored disruption in Nigerian oil exports causes a sharp jump in the price of crude oil futures, the mere knowledge that new US oil production would be adding even 2% to worldwide oil production could and would have a significant downward effect on the price of oil. However, I don't disagree with your three items.
As to food prices, if you do a little googling you will find that the unintended consequences of the US ethanol mandate are far from future speculation. Fertilizer prices have risen sky high. Grain futures of all types are setting new record highs. All of this is based on hard mathematics showing the number of prime US farm acres which must be diverted to corn production to meet the ethanol mandate, and the additional fertilizer / water / energy costs necessary to bring additional marginal US farmland into food production to make up for the prime acres 'lost' to ethanol.
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.as...=BSTK&evnt=adv and
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.as...=BSTK&evnt=adv
both clearly show that agricultural futures, and corn futures in particular, took a big upward jump as soon as polling results made it known that democrats would carry the 2006 election, and those futures prices have continued moving upward ever since !
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