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Thread: Global Cooling

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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Global Cooling

    The sudden twists and turns in the scientific data are enough to give one whiplash.

    The latest data shows that 2007 was dramatically COOLER than previous years. At present, the Continent of North America has the highest snow cover in FIFTY (50) years.
    CO2 emissions have not declined. Thanks to China, India and other 3rd World economies they have increased and the earth's capacity to absorb CO2 has declined thanks to over farming and over grazing.

    Don't hold your breath waiting for Al Gore to say he was mistaken. He and his supporters are scrambling as I type to try and explain away the data.

  2. #2
    BrunetteGoddess
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Maybe for winter they were cooler but I know summer in AZ was hotter! More extremes in seasons in general maybe?

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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    ehh... Anomalies perhaps... I'm riding the fence on global warming, although I'm starting to think it DOES have drastic effects... Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if 10 years from now Global Warming has gone the way of Y2K.

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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by BrunetteGoddess View Post
    Maybe for winter they were cooler but I know summer in AZ was hotter! More extremes in seasons in general maybe?
    No. Overall WORLDWIDE temperatures were lower.

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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by jester214 View Post
    ehh... Anomalies perhaps... I'm riding the fence on global warming, although I'm starting to think it DOES have drastic effects... Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if 10 years from now Global Warming has gone the way of Y2K.
    30 years ago scientists were claiming that we were in the beginning stages of another Ice Age. The difference was that few, if any , claimed that human activity had anything to do with it.

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    Veteran Member LadyLuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by BrunetteGoddess View Post
    More extremes in seasons in general maybe?
    You are correct. Climate change at the level we are at now causes weather extremes. Out of season stuff too like the recent twisters for example.

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    God/dess Paris's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    I listened to Rush yesterday, too. I didn't hear him mention that the northwest passage is now closed due to ice, again.

    The figures he quoted were winter only temps. Yes, this winter was cold. But the fact that I can grow palm trees in my yard (amongst other tropical plants) is testament that things do seem to be getting warmer.

    Elk are dying in Minnesota because a parasite that normally dies in the cold winters is instead increasing in population. Lodge Pole pines are going extinct in Colorado for a similar reason (bark beetle infestation that normally dies in the cold winters). Hillsides in Montana are covered with these dead trees, I've seen it.

    One year in planetary science means nothing, anyhow. One season is even less meaningful. Tell me how you feel about global warming in August. Until then, I'm taking a wait and see attitude (while planting lovely Bougainvillea vines in my previously too-cold region. My bulbs won't bloom because we didn't get cold enough this year.).


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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by Paris View Post
    I listened to Rush yesterday, too. I didn't hear him mention that the northwest passage is now closed due to ice, again.

    The figures he quoted were winter only temps. Yes, this winter was cold. But the fact that I can grow palm trees in my yard (amongst other tropical plants) is testament that things do seem to be getting warmer.

    Elk are dying in Minnesota because a parasite that normally dies in the cold winters is instead increasing in population. Lodge Pole pines are going extinct in Colorado for a similar reason (bark beetle infestation that normally dies in the cold winters). Hillsides in Montana are covered with these dead trees, I've seen it.

    One year in planetary science means nothing, anyhow. One season is even less meaningful. Tell me how you feel about global warming in August. Until then, I'm taking a wait and see attitude (while planting lovely Bougainvillea vines in my previously too-cold region. My bulbs won't bloom because we didn't get cold enough this year.).
    You're right. One year's data is worthless. If you look at the Earth's climatic history
    you'll see centuries long periods of warming and COOLING.

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    God/dess Paris's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Your key phrase is centuries. We are looking at dramatic changes over decades, not centuries.

    Do me a favor and spend some time on gardener's forums. I got interested in horticulture when I was 15 (1985), so I have a long term view of how the environment is changing for warmer.

    When you are at the mercy of the weather, like gardener's are, you can really see the difference from one year to the next. They may not be scientists, but they know that plants that require an extended freeze period won't bloom in their regions any more.

    Or just google "zone creep" and that'll give you some insight into what gardeners and landscapers are seeing with their own eyes.

    Unless of course you've managed to master the talent of doublethink, one cannot deny the proof right in front of your eyes.


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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by Paris View Post
    Your key phrase is centuries. We are looking at dramatic changes over decades, not centuries.

    Do me a favor and spend some time on gardener's forums. I got interested in horticulture when I was 15 (1985), so I have a long term view of how the environment is changing for warmer.

    When you are at the mercy of the weather, like gardener's are, you can really see the difference from one year to the next. They may not be scientists, but they know that plants that require an extended freeze period won't bloom in their regions any more.

    Or just google "zone creep" and that'll give you some insight into what gardeners and landscapers are seeing with their own eyes.

    Unless of course you've managed to master the talent of doublethink, one cannot deny the proof right in front of your eyes.

    Wait a minute ! There is no question that the climate is changing. The question is WHY ?

    Your gardeners have to account for record cold winters. Canada is having a record cold winter as is the Upper Mid-West U.S. Two predicted extreme Hurricane Seasons failed to develop- 2006 and 2007.

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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Wait a minute ! There is no question that the climate is changing. The question is WHY ?
    it seems that the planet Mars is also exhibiting climate change i.e. warming. Did we send a 'stealth' space mission up there to release greenhouse gases into the Martian atmosphere that nobody bothered to mention ?

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    Tauries
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    it seems that the planet Mars is also exhibiting climate change i.e. warming. Did we send a 'stealth' space mission up there to release greenhouse gases into the Martian atmosphere that nobody bothered to mention ?
    Not to mention that 650 million years ago the entire planet was covered by a sheet of ice....from that standpoint "global warming" has been goin' on for a long time!!

  13. #13
    Tauries
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by rooster470 View Post
    I'm kind of shocked at the level of skepticism towards global warming. Statistics tracking the correlation between increases in greenhouse gases and increased temperature are out there. As well as the glacial and ice caps melting. I really question anyone who gets their news from Rush Limbaugh. No offense meant to his fans, but his career has been built on making outrageous statements and being an overall ass. It would be like a liberal getting their news from Howard Stern. Doesn't make much sense.

    , I say son, now does that look like news from Rush Limbaugh to you boy?? That's a joke, son. A flag waver. You're built too low. The fast ones go over your head. Ya got a hole in your glove. I keep pitchin' 'em and you keep missin' 'em. Ya gotta keep your eye on the ball. Eye. Ball. I almost had a gag, son. Joke, that is.

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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    When it comes our climate, change is the only constant folks. Two such examples, which took place well before all the pollutants of industrialization allegedly began tinkering with things.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
    Former SCJ now in rehab.

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    Veteran Member LadyLuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    it seems that the planet Mars is also exhibiting climate change i.e. warming. Did we send a 'stealth' space mission up there to release greenhouse gases into the Martian atmosphere that nobody bothered to mention ?
    I actually covered that in another topic awhile back.
    Quote Originally Posted by LadyLuck View Post
    To Eric about Mars.That's not true. Here is a link that explains it.



  16. #16
    TheSexKitten
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    I was watching something on Discovery channel (or was it History channel?) a couple days ago which was talking about the weird polarization that the earth's climate can experience. Apparently this happened during the onset of the black plague. Some places were shifting between drought and ice, others like North America were just hella cold, and still others experienced drought only or tropical disaster stuff (hurricanes).

  17. #17
    Tauries
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by rooster470 View Post
    LOL. I appreciate the Foglorn Leghorn reference. The link you posted takes me to page that talks about Pangea. I've taken geology so i'm well aware of plate techtonics. Was there a specific page you wanted me to look at?
    I'm tryin' real hard Ringo!! Since I likes me some Foghorn Leghorn I'll take ya to the page.... What strikes me as funny is that we are in far more danger from soil and water pollution (heavy metals, etc.) and even funnier is the fact that North America and prolly the entire world is gonna get wiped out by the caldera underneath Yellowstone anyway....so why worry and enjoy your time!

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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    I actually covered that in another topic awhile back.
    well, you responded by posting a supposedly contrary link, whose conclusion was based on flawed data analysis and was subsequently discredited ...


    (snip)"According to Scafetta, records of sunspot activity suggest that solar output has been rising slightly for about 100 years. However, only measurements of what is known as total solar irradiance gathered by satellites orbiting since 1978 are considered scientifically reliable, he said.

    But observations over those years were flawed by the space shuttle Challenger disaster, which prevented the launching of a new solar output detecting satellite called ACRIM 2 to replace a previous one called ACRIM 1.

    That resulted in a two-year data gap that scientists had to rely on other satellites to try to bridge. "But those data were not as precise as those from ACRIM 1 and ACRIM 2,” Scafetta said in an interview.

    Nevertheless, several research groups used the combined satellite data to conclude that that there was no increased heating from the Sun to contribute to the global surface warming observed between 1980 and 2002, the authors wrote in their paper.

    Lacking a standardized, uninterrupted data stream measuring any rising solar influence, those groups thus surmised that all global temperature increases measured during those years had to be caused by solar heat-trapping "greenhouse" gases such as carbon dioxide, introduced into Earth's atmosphere by human activities, their paper added.

    But a 2003 study by a group headed by Columbia's Richard Willson, principal investigator of the ACRIM experiments, challenged the previous satellite interpretations of solar output. Willson and his colleagues concluded, rather that their analysis revealed a significant upward trend in average solar luminosity during the period.

    Using the Columbia findings as the starting point for their study, Scafetta and West then statistically analyzed how Earth's atmosphere would respond to slightly stronger solar heating. Importantly, they used an analytical method that could detect the subtle, complex relationships between solar output and terrestrial temperature patterns.

    The Duke analyses examined solar changes over a period twice as long -- 22 versus 11years -- as was previously covered by another group employinga different statistical approach.

    "The problem is that Earth's atmosphere is not in thermodynamic equilibrium with the sun," Scafetta said. "The longer the time period the stronger the effect will be on the atmosphere, because it takes time to adapt."

    Using a longer 22 year interval also allowed the Duke physicists to filter out shorter range effects that can influence surface temperatures but are not related to global warming, their paper said. Examples include volcanic eruptions, which can temporarily cool the climate, and ocean current changes such as el Nino that affect global weather patterns.

    Applying their analytical method to the solar output estimates by the Columbia group, Scafetta's and West's paper concludes that "the sun may have minimally contributed about 10 to 30 percent of the 1980-2002 global surface warming.""(snip)

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    Veteran Member LadyLuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    ^No, lol, it was not discredited.



    You do realize that Earth and Mars are two different planets with two differnt atmospheres and two different overall enviroments, right?

    It is simply not logical to try to say Earth and Mars would react the same to the sun or anything else for that matter.

    But to address your comments of the sun and the earth, I submit the following from Stanford. Noted early in the paper:

    "Analysis of a number of published graphs that have played a major role in these debates and that have been claimed to support solar hypotheses [Laut, 2003; Damon and Peristykh,1999, 2004] shows that the apparent strong correlations displayed on these graphs have been obtained by incorrect handling of the physical data. The graphs are still widely referred to in the literature,and their misleading character has not yet been generally recognized. Readers are cautioned against drawing any conclusions, based upon these graphs, concerning the possible wisdom or futility of reducing the emissions of man-made greenhouse gases. These findings do not by any means rule out the existence of important links between solar activity and terrestrial climate. Such links have been demonstrated by many authors over the years.The sole objective of the present analysis is to draw attention to the fact that some of the widely publicized, apparent correlations do not properly reflect the underlying physical data."



    So actually it is the premise which you have attempted to present that is based on flawed data analysis.
    Last edited by LadyLuck; 02-28-2008 at 08:18 PM. Reason: adding link info & script errors

  20. #20
    Tauries
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by LadyLuck View Post
    ^No, lol, it was not discredited.

    You do realize that Earth and Mars are two different planets with two differnt atmospheres and two different overall enviroments, right?


    It is simply not logical to try to say Earth and Mars would react the same to the sun or anything else for that matter.
    Shhh!! Don't tell that to the gamma-ray bursts or supernova!! What exactly heats these "greenhouse" gases anyway ?

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    Veteran Member LadyLuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    I am just going to add one last thing here regarding the "only the sun is to blame for climate change" theory Melonie has presented and then I am done here because I don't want to do the whole beat a dead horse thing. So here goes!

    It is a well-known fact that the 11 year solar cycle is associated with an irradiance change of about 2 watts/meter^2 .There is absolutely no question that this has an effect on climate. However, the effect is small and (most important to note) evens out to nil over the long term.

    As has been noted many times, measurements of solar radiation show that there has been almost no net change over the last fifty years. The question has been the extent of the prior long-term variability.

    Several decades ago, it was assumed that much of past climate variation could be explained only by significant changes in irradiance. Since then, the trend in research results has been to reduce the degree and geographic extent of what had originally been assumed to be large global climate swings (e.g., the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age), and to reduce historical variability in irradiance.

    The most interesting development of the last couple of years has been that the solar physics community seems to be coalescing toward a new reconstruction that shows irradiance variability since 1600 to have had an amplitude no greater than the 11 year cycle. Quoting the author, Leif Svalgaard:

    "I had two posters [at the AGU fall meeting last month], one about the correctness (or not) of the sunspot number series (both of them), and one on TSI. They are actually related as many reconstructions of TSI are based on or calibrated by the Group Sunspot Number. To claim that the sunspot number is wrong is serious business, but there seems to be a growing 'feeling' that I may be on to something. The reaction to my claim that TSI has varied a lot less than commonly assumed, i.e. that there is no 'background' long-term change, or in other words, that at each solar minimum the TSI falls to the value it had during the Maunder Minimum was well received. People like Dora Premminger, Claus Froehlich, even Scafetta (a little bit) were not too averse against my conclusions. Of course, there is more work to be done before everybody is on board. Here is my reconstruction of TSI:

    "If I'm correct it means that 1) either the sun does not influence the climate or 2) the climate system is hypersensitive to even the smallest changes in TSI or to some other parameter that also follows the solar cycle (e.g. cosmic rays).

    "There has been a steady decline in the 'background' from Hoyt-Schatten -> Lean -> Lean -> Wang -> Leif that simple extrapolation would have predicted the disappearance of the background about next year anyway, so resistance is getting weaker."

    The new reconstruction implies that prior work finding significant irradiance changes prior to 1600 is also in question. As for the possible "hypersensitivity," it would be very hard to make a case for it since no such effect has been observed in connection with the 11 year cycle.

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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    That's a well known fact? lol, sorry couldn't resist...

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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by rooster470 View Post
    I'm kind of shocked at the level of skepticism towards global warming. Statistics tracking the correlation between increases in greenhouse gases and increased temperature are out there. As well as the glacial and ice caps melting. I really question anyone who gets their news from Rush Limbaugh. No offense meant to his fans, but his career has been built on making outrageous statements and being an overall ass. It would be like a liberal getting their news from Howard Stern. Doesn't make much sense.
    Rush even said in that same show (albeit quickly and just as he was going to commercial) that the world cooled 75 degrees this winter. I like listening to him. He should partner up with Art Bell for a late night special.


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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    Quote Originally Posted by rooster470 View Post
    I'm kind of shocked at the level of skepticism towards global warming. Statistics tracking the correlation between increases in greenhouse gases and increased temperature are out there. As well as the glacial and ice caps melting. I really question anyone who gets their news from Rush Limbaugh. No offense meant to his fans, but his career has been built on making outrageous statements and being an overall ass. It would be like a liberal getting their news from Howard Stern. Doesn't make much sense.
    There are literally hundreds of scientists and climatologists ( not beholden to the energy industry ) who have expressed skepticism over the man-made Global Warming theory. I haven't listened to Rush beyond a few minutes here and there in YEARS !

    The glacial and polar caps have melted before. Greenland was fertile farmland a thousand years ago and despite decades of "warming" is not and will not be again for the forseeable future.

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    Default Re: Global Cooling

    ^^^ agreed ! There are a lot of theories circulating around. And if this were only a matter of proving a scientific principle, then everyone could wait calmly while the various hundreds of scientists and climatologists sifted through existing data and collected new and better data until an unarguable final conclusion was reached.

    However, where the man-made global warming theory is concerned, literally millions of people and thousands of politicians are not content to wait until an unarguable final conclusion is reached. Instead they are proposing via the Kyoto treaty that developed countries proceed on very arguable current (and conflicting) evidence to legislate mandatory reductions of CO2 as well as the de-facto institution of a 'carbon tax' on all fossil fuels. This will have a profound effect on the economies of those developed countries, and holds the potential for a significant forced reduction in the average standard of living in those developed countries.

    And once the treaty is signed and the 'carbon tax' is in place, if an unarguable conclusion is finally reached that disproves the man-made Global Warming theory the developed countries will be unable to 'unsign' the Kyoto treaty and do away with the 'carbon tax' (when has a politician EVER done away with a tax, even if they could ?).

    But even if the unarguable conclusion does turn out to be that the man-made Global Warming theory is in fact correct, the structure of the Kyoto treaty will not do much to actually reduce CO2 emissions on a global basis. All that will happen is that heavy CO2 emitting industries in developed countries will relocate their facilities to developing countries like China and India that are exempt from CO2 limits under the Kyoto treaty, and which are on record that they won't accept CO2 limits in the future. That's a hard enough consequence to follow if the man-made Global Warming theory is in fact correct. But IMHO it is a disastrous unintended consequence if, as pointed out in the first post of this thread, the man-made Global Warming theory is eventually contradicted.

    Of course, there are those that would argue that the results of Kyoto treaty compliance on developed countries are not unintended consequences, but consequences that are specifically intended by certain persons ... (no I won't reach for the tin foil hat yet)

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