(snip)"The above chart shows the economy needs to create 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth. Over the past 3 months the economy has lost 232,00 jobs.(snip)
The establishment data was an absolute disaster.
51,000 construction jobs were lost
48,000 manufacturing jobs were lost
12,000 retail trade jobs were lost
35,000 professional services jobs were lost
18,000 government jobs were added [ but with public sector jobs serving as a drain on the economy, since these paychecks must be funded by tax dollars - sic]
A whopping 93,000 goods producing jobs in total were lost (higher paying jobs), and even the lower paying service providing jobs such as those at Wal-Mart (WMT), Pizza Hut (YUM), Target (TGT) etc, provided a net gain of a mere 13,000 jobs.
It should not be long now before even the service sector starts to contract. Wal-Mart has canceled many stores and so have other retailers. Consumers are shopping and eating out less. More layoffs are coming. No one should be denying that we are in a recession now.(snip)
(snip)"This was a very weak jobs report. But it is even worse when one looks at Birth/Death Model assumptions.(snip)
The BLS should be embarrassed to report this data. Its model suggests that there was a net jobs of 28,000 coming from construction businesses, 44,000 jobs coming from leisure and hospitality, and a whopping 142,000 jobs in total coming from net new business creation.
Virtually no one can possibly believe this data. The data is so bad, I doubt those at the BLS even believe it. But that is what their model says so that is what they report. Just as there is mark to model in the investment world, there is mark to model in the BLS world."(snip)
(snip)"The latest birth/death numbers appear to be from Mars, Pluto, or France. With housing falling like a rock and homebuilders demanding concessions from contractors, the BLS is assuming that 28,000 new jobs were added in construction and 7,000 new jobs in manufacturing. With subprime lenders blowing up everywhere (going out of business) the BLS is assuming 6,000 new jobs were added in financial activities. The total number of jobs added by such assumptions for February was 142,000 jobs.
No doubt you will see some who will subtract 142,000 jobs from -80,000 jobs and conclude that 222,000 jobs were lost as opposed to the reported loss of 80,000 jobs. Such math is inaccurate because the establishment numbers are seasonally adjusted and the birth/death assumptions are not and one cannot simply add the two together and come up with an accurate total."(snip)
(snip)"Table A-12 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Let's take a look
see for chart
If you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. The official government number is 5.1% but Table A-12 suggests it is closer to 9.1%. I believe that is on the low side.
Regardless, the trend in unemployment is now clear, it is rising sharply. Expect to see 6% this year. This report was a disaster."(snip)



Reply With Quote


Bookmarks