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Thread: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

  1. #1
    AlexxaHex
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    Default Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    I think this is pretty serious stuff...I hope this doesn't happen but it's likely that it will.

    From


    "New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.

    "It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report."

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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    yikes! and i just watched my first episode of Eli Stone yesterday!

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    Senior Member muladoll's Avatar
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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    I survived as a newborn during the Feb 9, 1971 L.A. earthquake. I grew up in L.A. and we've always been waiting for the "Big One", since then. I was there during Northridge, Jan. 17, 1994, and went to work right after it happened.

    During the 80's I was very convinced the "Big One" (over 7.0) was going to happen because the prediction then was, "within the next 10 years". We had many small ones and sometimes big ones such as the 1994 Northridge one. Fast forward 2008. I'm still a good Catholic Girl and I'm still alive uninjured in a different state.

    I never experienced the "Big One", but so many other countries did during my time in L.A. If you're from L.A., you know it's gonna happen, just don't know when or how hard. If you're not from L.A., don't freak out. When it's time to go, it's time to go no matter where' you're at.

  4. #4
    AlexxaHex
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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    I felt a tiny one right after Kembra was born in Riverside. It only lasted a few seconds but it was enough to make me panic a little. Never felt one before or after that. I'm so glad I moved back east though!

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    Featured Member WiseGuy_TX's Avatar
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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    ....when the "big one" hits, it will wreck the insurance industry. They could not even begin to pay out what they insure and the economy will tumble once again (similar affect as Katrina and 911 had)

    "The 1994 Northridge earthquake under Los Angeles' San Fernando Valley was magnitude 6.7. It killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage in the metropolitan area.

    The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates."
    "Peter, did you take Stewie to a strip-club? He smells like sweat and fear." - Lois and Stewie (Family Guy) ... "Through early morning fog I see, Visions of the things to be, The pains that are withheld for me, I realize and I can see..."

  6. #6
    Jay Zeno
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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    None of you are old enough to remember, but in the late 1970's, there was a specific day predicted when California was supposed to get quaked and fall into the ocean.

    That was an oops. See, this is why us oldtimers are cynical.

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    God/dess doc-catfish's Avatar
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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    Sounds like some scientist wants some grant money that he can go waste on lattes, fly fishing, and a new iPhone.

    "New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent."


    Well, I'm sure people in NorCal are breathing a sigh of relief over that one. I mean its only 93%. I myself don't get worried myself until about 96% or so.

    It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report."
    Okay, so we need just one quake 6.7 or greater in the next 30 years to make this prediction a reality right? Looking at the previous 30 years, I'd say this is about as bold as predicting sand in the desert.

    November 8, 1980 10:27 Gorda Plate, California, USA 7.2
    October 17, 1989 0:04 Loma Prieta, California, USA (63 deaths) 6.9
    August 17, 1991 22:17 Honeydew, California, USA 7.1
    April 25, 1992 18:06 Cape Mendocino, California, USA 7.2
    April 26, 1992 11:18 offshore, Cape Mendocino, California, USA 6.7
    June 28, 1992 11:57 Landers, California, USA (3 deaths) 7.3
    January 17, 1994 12:30 Northridge, California, USA (60 deaths) 6.7
    September 1, 1994 15:15 Cape Mendocino, California, USA 7.1
    October 16, 1999 9:46 Hector Mine, California, USA 7.2
    Former SCJ now in rehab.

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    Member Ook's Avatar
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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    Most of the time, I'd say you're right- but not here. If you carefully read the study linked by the article, you'll note that this three year study was commissioned by the State of California for a public planning agency, not done by some Associate Professor running out of his NSF starter grant money.

    The whole point of the study is to limit secondary disasters following a magnitude 7.5+ quake, and assess relative probabilities of lesser and greater quakes.

    Plans are worthless, but planning is essential.
    -Dwight D. Eisenhower

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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    Well I hope its big enough to just clean the slate like a big etch a sketch then we can just start over. j/k lol What will happen first though the big meteor or the big E?

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    God/dess xdamage's Avatar
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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    We've been told to expect it soonish since I was a kid in CA.

    Funny thing is it is predictable, a pattern like a wave, but in the overall scheme of things, it's a tiny blip of time if it is a few hundreds years later or earlier then the norm.

    I'm really curious about what models they use for prediction, but I worry a bit about one thing. There are so many variables; even the best models can teach scientists a lot, but they can still be far off because there are more variables then any model can fully incorporate, which leaves the lay public being skeptical about science in general. Boo... It's great that there are people working on these things though. Maybe no help any time soon, but perhaps farther into the future the predictions will have greater practical benefits.

  11. #11
    Yekhefah
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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Zeno View Post
    None of you are old enough to remember, but in the late 1970's, there was a specific day predicted when California was supposed to get quaked and fall into the ocean.

    That was an oops. See, this is why us oldtimers are cynical.
    They did that in Memphis when I was a kid - the date was December 3, 1990, in the wee hours of the morning. It freaked everybody right the fuck out. The same guy who predicted it had supposedly predicted the Mt. St. Helens eruption too. I remember being terrified, pressuring my parents to stock up with tons of water and canned food, etc. On the night of December 2, I couldn't go to sleep I was so scared. A lot of people kept their kids home from school on the 2nd and 3rd, and I didn't understand why my parents were unconcerned. That earthquake never happened either, but it did get everyone interested in better construction and readiness, so I guess the scare did some good.

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    Veteran Member RebeccaSolidarity's Avatar
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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    Quote Originally Posted by WiseGuy_TX View Post
    "The 1994 Northridge earthquake under Los Angeles' San Fernando Valley was magnitude 6.7. It killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage in the metropolitan area.

    The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates."
    i would have slept through that earthquake actually, and i was only maybe a twenty minute drive from northridge at most, on surface streets. only thing that woke me up was a glass of water spilling off the headboard of my bed and dousing me. i remember the damage though. it was kind of intense. an entire wall at my junior high fell down.

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  13. #13
    BrunetteGoddess
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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    Right before I moved away from NorCal everyone was a-buzzin about how there was supposed to be a big quake very soon up where I was.

    Yup. Glad I moved. C-ya!

  14. #14
    AlexxaHex
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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    Quote Originally Posted by Ook View Post
    Most of the time, I'd say you're right- but not here. If you carefully read the study linked by the article, you'll note that this three year study was commissioned by the State of California for a public planning agency, not done by some Associate Professor running out of his NSF starter grant money.

    The whole point of the study is to limit secondary disasters following a magnitude 7.5+ quake, and assess relative probabilities of lesser and greater quakes.

    Plans are worthless, but planning is essential.
    -Dwight D. Eisenhower
    Interesting.

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    Default Re: Giant earthquake a-comin' in Cali

    I'm way too close to that damn Hayward Fault for comfort. Well, hopefully this one will be as fun as the '89 quake! Woohoo! I was 5 yrs. when that one hit, and in an apartment at the top of a 7 or 8 story building... well, I may be exaggerating a floor or two. I remember how it was swaying side to side, freaking crazy! I don't mind riding it out, as long as a fucking buliding doesn't collapse on me (or anything else for that matter), I'm not driving over the Bay Bridge, or under the Bay on BART when it goes down..... *calculating my risk factors*
    Hmmm...
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