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Thread: Recession proof jobs and Business

  1. #1
    goldengrl69
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    Default Recession proof jobs and Business

    What would be a good recession proof business or job? I used to have a Childcare in my home. I made great money off of that (years ago ) I dont think with parents losing their jobs that I would want to go that route.

    TIA!

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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Just think of what people will always need, no matter what: doctors, nurses, lawyers and police. Maybe even teachers because kids always go to school whether there's a recession or not. That depends on your area and if there's already more teachers than jobs though. Something to do with the oil or energy industry since people need gas in their cars and light/heat in their houses, maybe?

    If you can, get into international business and when things get really bad you can travel and work in another part of the world that isn't going through a recession, or at least one that's as bad. Great if you speak another language!

  3. #3
    smartcookie
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Healthcare and government/civil service jobs - pretty much restating what joannabell says.

  4. #4
    goldengrl69
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    I was thinking of nursing school. My uncle is going to Dubai soon. I dont think I would feel safe there though.

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    this time around, civil service jobs may not be the best idea. The city of Vallejo, CA just declared bankruptcy ... with much of the reason for that bankruptcy being police, teachers, firefighters, maintenance workers etc. refusing to accept pay freezes or pay / benefit cuts to help the city balance its budget. By declaring bankruptcy, the city can break existing union contracts and fire X number of civil servants permanently while increasing the workload for the rest ... just like the private sector !

    While Vallejo is the only major city so far that has taken the bankruptcy route, for a fact there are cities/counties all over the country who have reached an unsustainable situation in terms of available tax revenue (property taxes, sales taxes), versus mandated costs (MediAid, social welfare programs), versus public sector employee wage and costs, versus the rising costs (or outright inability) to sell additional municipal bonds at an affordable interest rate given the debt burden these cities/counties are already carrying. If these cities/counties are going to take the political heat for raising property and sales tax rates, they are also going to have to reduce expenditures. With mandated program costs (MedicAid, social welfare programs) beyond local control, and with interest payments on existing bonds also somewhat beyond local control, the only real way to reduce expenditures is to eliminate public sector jobs.

    The option of avoiding bad US economic conditions by moving to another country is actually a very good idea if you are careful about your choices. As goldengirl mentioned, a tremendous amount of money is relocating to Dubai. However it remains to be seen whether an increasing number of 'Western' expatriates moving to Dubai will change the country's position in regard to treatment of women.

  6. #6
    ajbaer
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    molecular diagnostics

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    Veteran Member StuartL's Avatar
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    I'd suggest finding a second income that can be carried out from where you are. By that, I mean homebased.

    Whatever happens over the coming few months and years, oil isn't going to be getting much - if any - cheaper. That means that a commute will become an increasingly costly addition to the monthly bills.

    Giving specific suggestions is difficult, because we each have different preferences for our lives. However, I'd suggest that having genuine skills in another area - other than dancing - would be the way to go.

    In the online world, there are so many sites which all need new content that good quality content creation will be in demand. Copywriting is usually a good bet too - hard work but well paid, and businesses always need sales.

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    Banned i.breathe.in's Avatar
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    seriously bars. strip clubs. people will spend their last dollars trying to escape from their misery.

    at least thats what the news said....

  9. #9
    goldengrl69
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    The option of avoiding bad US economic conditions by moving to another country is actually a very good idea if you are careful about your choices. As goldengirl mentioned, a tremendous amount of money is relocating to Dubai. However it remains to be seen whether an increasing number of 'Western' expatriates moving to Dubai will change the country's position in regard to treatment of women.

    Yep, most of the jobs in my field (Oil Refineries-Project Scheduler) state that they are looking for males with experiance.

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    God/dess hockeybobby's Avatar
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Goldengrl69: Consider an income property. It's real estate for starters which means your principal is fairly safe. Prices may be advantageous for buying for the next little while. People will always need a place to stay, and the rents can go up with inflation.

    If you have a university, college, or technical school in your town, consider living in the house and renting rooms on a semester basis to students. This will be considered a shared accomodation arrangement, and you will have more control. You will be able to write off a sizable portion of your expenses, utilities, interest against the rental income.

    You will essentially be living in your little business.

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    Veteran Member XxAmber89xX's Avatar
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    this recession is a weird one if it is indeed called one...

    traditionally auctioneering, appliance service, automotive repair, etc., all do well in recessionary periods, though- the national auctioneer association reported that 2007 was a good year and 2008 activity dropped significantly for auctions. Appliance service and repair makes little sense as we've become a 'throwaway' economy. And automotive repair seems to be most profitable in the value added 'pimping your ride' customizing and value added premium services like 15 minute exhaust job, etc...

    IMO it's got to get worse before it get's better- and I don't think that this 'credit crunch' is enough to rationalize the excuberence being displayed by the typical North American consumer. perhaps the next downturn, though, may tailspin right out of control. for now, we're pretty resillient.
    Oh Canada, we stand on cars and freeze...

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    Featured Member BrodieLux's Avatar
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Time to buy a nice piece of forested land with a spring, learn primitive skills and herbal medicine, build a passive solar home with electricity generated by solar power, and start up a nice organic garden. Ideally have your homstead in an area with a good local economy. Thats my aim, anyway.
    Quote Originally Posted by CuriousSeeker View Post
    ^Pssssttttt, your stripper is showing.

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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    ^^^
    i do most of that now, and i live somewhere fertile, always a bennie in a depression.

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    God/dess scarlett_vancouver's Avatar
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    ^^ my dream

    Feature costumes for sale!

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Time to buy a nice piece of forested land with a spring, learn primitive skills and herbal medicine, build a passive solar home with electricity generated by solar power, and start up a nice organic garden. Ideally have your homstead in an area with a good local economy. Thats my aim, anyway.
    This is exactly why I moved out of north Jersey and into upstate NY a few years ago. My grandmother had taught me a lot of 'primitive' skills in regard to growing and preserving food, in regard to 'green witch' herbalism etc. When she died I bought her house, and am trying to carry on the tradition. As you may have seen from other threads, I plant a huge outdoor garden and can / preserve enough of the produce to carry me through the winter. This year I added a greenhouse, which should allow me to grow a wider variety of plants via adding an extra 6-8 weeks to the useful growing season.

    As far as solar goes, it really doesn't work out very well in upstate NY because there aren't a whole lot of sunny days !!! However, wood heat works out very well, as do corn stoves (although with the price of corn so high now it's not affordable to burn corn anymore unless you've grown and dried it yourself). I also invested in super efficient triple glazed windows and extra insulation, which has caused a huge reduction in my energy bills. And while this is currently taken for granted by many people, I have an unlimited supply of crystal clear water available from a shallow well.

    Basically, with my current setup, and with my ability to trade goods and services with my mostly rural neighbors (like there is a local meat processor nearby that butchers local farm animals), we can carry on just fine even if the economy falls on its ass totally.

    The biggest worry won't actually be our ability to carry on in a second 'great depression' (if that ever happens), but our ability to be able to 'keep' the fruits of our labors if and when cold and hungry city residents start trying to 'help themselves'. However they'll probably start hitting the suburbs first, and hopefully won't pay much attention to my one stop sign town !

    Second biggest worry is outside fuel supplies i.e. gasoline. However, if need be, one neighbor is set up with a wood fired corn mash distillation unit that can produce ethanol pure enough to run generators and retuned car engines. It's also pure enough to drink as well LOL !!!

  16. #16
    ajbaer
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    E and I are working on having the items to be able to run off and live on the land. One thing at a time though.

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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Nothing is recession proof, but any business or industry that has a negative beta would expand their revenue base in a downturn. Their revenue base would also contract during an expansion. Over time, they would lose money, since expansions are longer than contractions. There are very few tradeable assets (stocks) that have negative betas. But...

    Landlord/Tenant/Eviction Attorneys. They are doing quite nicely right now.

    Bankruptcy Attorneys. Ditto.

    Collection Agencies. Even if they can't actually collect.

    In general, "bads" tend to do fairly well during downturns. Tobacco, alcohol, porn, etc. When the economy turns down, more people feel bad. And to cope, they will tend to numb the pain, or otherwise escape from their dismal reality. Sad but true.

    I'm not so sure the stripper market would do well during a recession, however.

    In a downturn, investors move to defensive mode. For stocks, ask yourself,

    "what's in my fridge...bathroom...pantry?"

    Food, shampooo, soap, lanudry detergent, shaving cream, feminine goo stuff. No matter what the economy is doing, people need this stuff. They purchase about the same amount regardless of the state of the economy, and the price. The demand is relatively inelastic.

    In this softer economy, are you going to use less feminine goo stuff? Please say No.

    Will WineSnob forgo his excellent grape juice? Hell no.

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    God/dess Mr Hyde's Avatar
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Quote Originally Posted by joannabell View Post
    Just think of what people will always need, no matter what: doctors, nurses, lawyers and police. Maybe even teachers because kids always go to school whether there's a recession or not. That depends on your area and if there's already more teachers than jobs though. Something to do with the oil or energy industry since people need gas in their cars and light/heat in their houses, maybe?

    If you can, get into international business and when things get really bad you can travel and work in another part of the world that isn't going through a recession, or at least one that's as bad. Great if you speak another language!
    Some of these are not necessarily recession-proof. Police can get laid off. But education is fairly recession-proof...in fact, when the economy tightens, people often go back to school to learn something new to do. Recessions often help some parts of the economy, strangely enough.

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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Quote Originally Posted by i.breathe.in View Post
    seriously bars. strip clubs. people will spend their last dollars trying to escape from their misery.

    at least thats what the news said....

    Oh God... please let this be true!



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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Police, teachers, firemen, sanitation workers, clerks etc. can ALL get laid off very easily. The reason of course is that these public sector paychecks come out of state and local gov't tills. And those state and local gov'ts have really got their hands full during this 'recession'.

    First, the real estate bust has affected property values almost everywhere. This usually results in an automatic reduction in property tax revenues (if the homeowners complain to have their property reassessed). Second is state and local sales tax revenues ... which are directly impacted by Joe Sixpack deciding to eat at home instead of McDonalds, by cutbacks in spending on 'discretionary' purchases etc. Also, every business that closes results in a loss of property tax, sales tax and income tax revenue.

    Unlike the federal gov't, state and local gov'ts MUST balance their budgets either via tax increases or via the sale of more municipal bonds. However, with bond underwriters (like AMBAC) facing huge losses, and with auction rate bond markets failing, the ability and cost (in terms of interest rate) of new money from bond issues has never been more expensive for states and cities. At some recent failed auctions the interest rate on muni bonds has hit 10%+, which vastly increases interest expense for those states and localities that stand behind the bonds.

    Additionally, with every person that is laid off or goes bankrupt, the states and cities face rising social welfare benefit expenses and reduced tax revenue at the same time. And in most cases, states and cities do not have the choice of reducing the level of unemployment / food stamp / subsidized rent / subsidized utility / medicaid expenditures.

    Thus if local taxpayers are ready to revolt over potential increases in local property taxes, in state income taxes etc., and if states and cities are forced to keep paying unemployment / food stamp / medicaid benefits (if not having to pay even more), then there is only one area available for budget balancing. And that area is cutting public sector employment significantly. In my own area, something like 10% of all teachers have been laid off recently, as schools were closed and students shipped to other schools (with larger class sizes per teacher) as a cost saving measure.

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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    there's a guy in denver who makes his living tending his neighbors' suburban gardens and sharing in the profits from the sale of the food.

    that sounds pretty recession proof, overall.

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    Veteran Member StuartL's Avatar
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Quote Originally Posted by i.breathe.in View Post
    seriously bars. strip clubs. people will spend their last dollars trying to escape from their misery.

    at least thats what the news said....
    I'm not so sure about strip clubs... But bars and clubs more generally are considered 'defensive' investments. This means that although they might not be brilliant investments in a recession, they are hit less badly. Its a kind of relativity thing.

    The reasoning behind this seems to be that no matter how bad life may get - and how poor - lots of people will still want to have a good time once or twice a month and that keeps bars and clubs going. I would also presume, in addition to this, that since many bars and clubs have younger clientele: a recession impacts them less. After all, students are still going to drink. What do they care if there is a recession? Do increased mortgage costs worry students? Not generally, no...

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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Hooking

    Escorts/Prostitutes



  24. #24
    God/dess Zofia's Avatar
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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Police, ... can ALL get laid off very easily.
    Let's face it, more cops do not lead to a reduction in the crime rate. In fact, more cops usually lead to a higher number of arrests. The same is probably true of fire departments and lots of other municipal government agencies. In my town, over half the fire department calls are for EMS, yet we have twice as many fire fighters as EMTs and Paramedics.

    Z

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    Default Re: Recession proof jobs and Business

    it's interesting to see that, two years after this thread was posted, many of the original speculations have in fact turned out to be wrong ... particularly in regard to the NON-layoffs of public sector workers i.e. teachers, cops, firemen, municipal workers etc. Of course the arguable reason for this was the fact that hundreds of billions of dollars of ( freshly printed ) federal 'stimulus' money were 'given' to the states ( some states much more so than others), and used by those states to continue paying public sector worker salaries rather than for any genuinely economically stimulating purpose.

    As a result, the only real economic change has been that the US taxpayer is now saddled with far more gov't debt ... the economies / budget deficits of some states haven't improved at all ... and now at long last there are finally serious discussions of laying off teachers, cops, firemen and municipal workers.


    It's also interesting to note that some other speculations turned out to be wrong as well ... specifically those involving car repairs and appliance repairs. In past recessions, a shortage of discretionary spending power forced consumers to delay purchases of new cars and new appliances - with a resultant increase in repairs on the old cars and appliances. However, this time around, federal and state 'stimulus' spending was used to subsidize the purchase of certain new cars and certain new appliances via the 'cash for clunkers' and 'energy efficient appliances' programs. This incentivized ( actually it mandated ) the disposal of older cars and appliances thus erasing the repair component.

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