Starting international:
More pondering about why the USD hasn't crashed and burnt already
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...up-dollar.htmlInquiring minds are pondering the question "Is the ECB propping up the US dollar?"
Please consider the following email chain over the past five days, all from people whose opinions I respect. The discussion started with an email from Minyan Phillip on May 2nd.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/252585/In the last few day I have been at the Asian Development Bank meetings in Madrid and then visited Hong Kong and China. I have presented my view on the severity of the US recession and its potential effects on economic growth in China and Asia. Will this region decouple from the US economic contraction?
Here are three media reports of my views on the US and its effects on Asia:
Moving towards the US:
Gambling with other people's money seems to be working out so well for everyone else - Let it ride!
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...ef=patrick.netThe Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the government agency that protects the pensions of 44 million workers in case their employers can't (or won't) pay promised benefits, has announced that to avoid going bust it will double the percentage of its portfolio -- to 45% -- that it puts into stocks. An additional 10% will go into alternative investments, including hedge funds.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...fer=realestateMay 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation to let a federal agency insure up to $300 billion in mortgages to help homeowners avert foreclosure, a day after the White House threatened to veto the measure.
I've left out most of the bad hedge fund news from the last few days... there's just too much of it.
Boosting revenue sounds like a good plan:
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...080509?sp=trueNEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc said on Friday it plans to shed $400 billion of assets within three years and boost revenue by up to 10 percent annually, in a bid to restore profitability after huge losses tied to flagging mortgage and credit markets.
As does palming bad debt onto other people
http://bankimplode.com/blog/?p=165The worlds largest banks are feeding on the worlds public sector more than ever. Bloomberg is reporting that Citigroup and UBS are exiting the auction rate securities market.
And people are having a hard enough time buying stuff to pay their mortgages, apparently
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/09/news...ion=2008050909No longer able to turn their homes for cash, Americans are increasingly using plastic to meet their basic living expenses. But many can't afford to pay the bills.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0509.htmlWhile in the past cards were used primarily to purchase big ticket items, spreading out costs over many months, they are now increasingly used to bridge the gap between cost of living and the diminishing purchasing power of Americans who have been taxed mercilessly by inflation.
...
In fact, one reason some homeowners have such large mortgages is that they consolidated their credit card debts into their mortgages each time they refinanced. Why should renters be forced to pay off their credit card debts while homeowners have theirs forgiven?
On to commodities:
ORLY?
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0507.htmlThe opportunities given today in gold & silver will be written about for another few years. The prices offered in early 2008 will be seen as tremendous bargains.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0509.htmlThe fact of the matter is that gold and silver are becoming more of a bargain on a daily basis. The reason is very simple: Every day, the central bank money spigots are spewing out at least ten times as much money, as miners are able to produce gold and silver!
Until this situation is reversed, the fundamentals will support higher prices.
Oil gives me a headache
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...il-bubble.htmlThe difficulty with the bubble moniker is determining exactly how much of the price is being driven by purely speculative factors. With Crude, a variety of forces are driving prices: A combination of both fundamentals (increasing demand, constrained supply, pipeline problems), technicals (Trend, money flow, etc.), along with the geopolitics of two Middle East wars -- as well as some speculation.
So does GSAX need to unwind a long oil position?
http://www.stockmarketimplode.com/20...l-that-is.htmlGoldman Sachs is at it again, manipulating the price of oil and gas. This is the same old game and don't you play it.
There is quite a bit of sentiment around that it's those damn speculators driving up futures prices. But shouldn't people just sell to them then, and take their money, if it's just hot air?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/...ia-closes.htmlFrom Bloomberg:
India, the world's second-largest buyer of vegetable oils, banned futures trading in soybean oil, rubber, chick peas and potatoes as the government intensified efforts to cool inflation that's at the highest in more than three years.
Trading has been halted for at least four months from today...
I really wish I understood the supply and demand situation better, myself.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121026120931177437.htmlOpinion among economists, at least those polled by the Wall Street Journal, is unusually united: 89% think that skyrocketing commodity prices are the result of fundamentals, not too much cash chasing too few raw materials.
Yet bubble-like enthusiasm abounds.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/...driven-by.html




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I don't have enough information to connect the dots (or if I did I'd be putting on some large positions instead of posting to SW
) but there's an awful lot of wierd stuff happening all at once...

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