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Thread: US in Depression in Q1

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    Default US in Depression in Q1

    With Economy in Depression and Trillion Dollar write-downs, Banks earned(pure after tax profits) $4.9 Billion
    With Economy in Depression and people having to spend everything on Food and Gas, Technology companies earned $23 Billion
    Reeling under Super-Duper-Hyper Inflation, Core CPI rose 0.1%

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Certainly the use of the word 'depression' is still hyperbolic at this point. However ...

    Bank earnings as reported are due to two major factors ... failure to book additional mark to market derivative losses, and an exy=tremely high 'spread' between the LIBOR interest rate their money 'costs' and the interest rates they are now able to charge on mortgages, consumer loans, credit cards etc.

    Many technology companies did indeed earn a lot of money ... mostly due to FOREIGN income ! Also their business is one of the LEAST affected by rising fuel and commodity costs.

    As to core CPI numbers, all I can say is check

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    a recession is technically two quaters of negative growth...the usa isnt in a depression yet.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Quote Originally Posted by wild slash View Post
    a recession is technically two quaters of negative growth...the usa isnt in a depression yet.
    Obviously you are new here.

    Clearly you havn't read the truth web-sites and you are just a shill to George Bush
    Recession == When US is not growing more than 10% GDP
    Depression == When US is not growing more than 4% GDP
    Armageddon == When US is not growing more than 0.5% GDP

    Currently we are definitely in depression and almost teetering on Armageddon. People don't have homes, banks are failing all over the place and people have to chew their arm because they have to spend all their income on Gas and can't afford high food prices

    Of course, web-sites like ShadowStats have real data which shows that there is actually no US at all. US was long destroyed in 1973 when they moved away from the Gold Standard. Everything you see is just a figment of your imagination created by Government.
    You are actually listening to a broken radio, eating grime and bicycle 10 mi each way to your job as a cobbler. But, the US govt has created this hallucination by manipulating the CPI, M3, Unemployment numbers

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Quote Originally Posted by xanfiles1 View Post
    Obviously you are new here.

    Clearly you havn't read the truth web-sites and you are just a shill to George Bush
    Recession == When US is not growing more than 10% GDP
    Depression == When US is not growing more than 4% GDP
    Armageddon == When US is not growing more than 0.5% GDP

    Currently we are definitely in depression and almost teetering on Armageddon. People don't have homes, banks are failing all over the place and people have to chew their arm because they have to spend all their income on Gas and can't afford high food prices

    Of course, web-sites like ShadowStats have real data which shows that there is actually no US at all. US was long destroyed in 1973 when they moved away from the Gold Standard. Everything you see is just a figment of your imagination created by Government.
    You are actually listening to a broken radio, eating grime and bicycle 10 mi each way to your job as a cobbler. But, the US govt has created this hallucination by manipulating the CPI, M3, Unemployment numbers
    Two observations. What has the previous poster's newness got to do with anything? This is a strip club website not graduate school. If it were a graduate school, you would presumably know that you can't make up your own defintions for depressions and recessions.

    Times are tough, no doubt about it, but we are technically not in either a recession or depression as they are defined.
    "never trust a big butt and a smile"-- Bell Biv DeVoe

    If you're in your twenties and aren't a liberal, you have no heart. If you're in you're forties and aren't a conservative, you have no brain - Winston Churchill

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Quote Originally Posted by bem401 View Post
    Two observations. What has the previous poster's newness got to do with anything? This is a strip club website not graduate school. If it were a graduate school, you would presumably know that you can't make up your own defintions for depressions and recessions.

    Times are tough, no doubt about it, but we are technically not in either a recession or depression as they are defined.
    Whoooosh!!!

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Don't worry america, you're government is here to save you.
    shut up. sit down....you are free to do as we tell you, you are free to do as we tell you.
    That's where are gov. and economy is going.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Recessions are usually named after they happen, as to name one requires a lot of study of fundamentals, etc. Even economists, those with graduate degrees and beyond, generally aren't using the recession label yet.

    That being said, I think we are in a recession, and lots of people are struggling. I live in OH, where foreclosures are high. It's very sad to see so many Americans struggling as they are. Most of the people struggling, though, are those who overextended themselves with some form of credit, whether related to homes, cars, credit cards, etc. Then, with oil prices and other consumer prices biting as they are, it creates a dire circumstance for those people. Maybe we will get back to not spending more than we earn, as we were (and statistically, we were (and not sure, but maybe now too).

    I know it's not good to talk politics, but I'm an ardent Democrat. I don't like one bit the state of our country (and, yes yes, I know, not ONE person can affect) as it's gone downhill in EVERY aspect since Bush came into office (well, the stock market and those in the top brackets, including oil businesses, have succeeded at unprecedented levels). I try to remain positive, I mean, look at the state of housing after the first Bush, we were in a recession at that time too. We came back, though. It's kind of nice to look at history, and see the consistent waves, see the administration that held office, and that makes me hopeful that change can help bring us back to a nation that's not struggling/hurting--again.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    The US economy runs on the creation of new bubbles. We need a new bubble to get out of the current slump. I wonder what the new bubble will be. We are engineering new bubbles while other countries are investing in manufacturing, education and productivity. They are savers, and we are spenders.

    One day we'll run out of bubbles. What happens then is unclear to me.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    I would add that every new gov't approved bubble helps one group of Americans and hurts another group of Americans. Not wanting to lean to far toward the political either, but the Democratic Congress passed this yesterday ...



    ... which includes such things as a sizeable increase in spending on food stamps, continued subsidies to the owners of large farms (which has now made them a very attractive tax shelter i.e. a major midwest farm owner is David Letterman, who uses the production tax credits from the farm to cut taxes on his multimillion dollar TV income), continued ethanol subsidies, 'earmarked' pork barrel money, and of course raises the price of the five major food / biofuel crops via continued price subsidies etc. As the commentator says, average Americans wind up paying twice for this bill ... once to the IRS (to make up for the lost tax revenues which result from the farm / ethanol production tax credits which help 'rich' owners / investors reduce their own tax bills), and again at the grocery store and gas pump (in the form of higher prices for food and ethanol blend gasoline).

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Quote Originally Posted by Adelina View Post
    The US economy runs on the creation of new bubbles. We need a new bubble to get out of the current slump. I wonder what the new bubble will be. We are engineering new bubbles while other countries are investing in manufacturing, education and productivity. They are savers, and we are spenders.

    One day we'll run out of bubbles. What happens then is unclear to me.
    The new bubble is commodities.

    We can't be in any form of recession because while the last job numbers continued to be destroyed jobs - at least there weren't as many destroyed jobs as we thought.

    Of course, the whole economy should be determined by whom is important - those with accounts on wall street and political connections.

    Those on main street facing increasing pain and problems don't count.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    a commodities bubble is just...a really, really, really bad idea.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    I would add that every new gov't approved bubble helps one group of Americans and hurts another group of Americans.
    The earth is a finite resource. Hence the basis of the study of economics.


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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Quote Originally Posted by Adelina View Post
    The US economy runs on the creation of new bubbles. We need a new bubble to get out of the current slump. I wonder what the new bubble will be. We are engineering new bubbles while other countries are investing in manufacturing, education and productivity. They are savers, and we are spenders.

    One day we'll run out of bubbles. What happens then is unclear to me.
    The new bubble? Renewable resources and "green" tech. Just like all bubbles, it is vulnerable to bursting if it works too well.


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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Quote Originally Posted by bem401 View Post
    Two observations. What has the previous poster's newness got to do with anything? This is a strip club website not graduate school. If it were a graduate school, you would presumably know that you can't make up your own defintions for depressions and recessions.

    Times are tough, no doubt about it, but we are technically not in either a recession or depression as they are defined.
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    Non technical definitions: 1) Recession- is when your neighbor loses their job.

    2) Depression- is when YOU lose YOUR job.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    you are making a mountain outta a mole hill
    and your sites that you have mentioned aint got cred
    Last edited by wild slash; 05-16-2008 at 02:20 AM. Reason: spelling

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    The new bubble? Renewable resources and "green" tech. Just like all bubbles, it is vulnerable to bursting if it works too well
    well, if history is any example, a bubble in renewable resources / alternative energy sources is vulnerable to bursting when government subsidies are reduced / withdrawn.

    (snip)"U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corporation
    The Energy Security Act of 1980 (P.L. 96-294, Title I, Part B) established the
    United States Synthetic Fuels Corporation (SFC) with the authority to provide
    financial assistance to qualified projects that produced synthetic fuel from coal, oil
    shale, tar sands, and heavy oils. The SFC’s loan commitments would be paid from
    the Energy Security Reserve fund. Executive Order 12346 (Synthetic Fuels) later
    provided for an orderly transition of DOE’s earlier synthetic fuel program to the SFC.

    Between 1981 and 1984, the SFC received 34 proposals for oil shale projects
    in three rounds of solicitations. Only three letters of intent were ever issued. Union
    Oil’s Parachute Creek Phase II 80,000 bpd plant was to receive a $2.7 billion funding
    commitment and a guarantee of $60/bbl, escalated up to $67 /bbl; another $0.5
    billion in price and loan guarantees was added in October 1985 to Union’s Parachute
    Creek Phase I. Cathedral Bluffs, a 14,300 bpd plant based on a Union Oil design,
    was to receive a $2.19 billion loan guarantee and a $60/bbl price guarantee. Seep
    Ridge Oil Shale’s 1,000 bpd plant was to receive $45 million in price and loan
    guarantees. None of the oil shale projects that received SFC loan guarantees ever
    received actual funding, as Congress rescinded $2 billion originally appropriated for
    the Energy Security Reserve fund in the Deficit Reduction Act of 1984 (P.L. 98-369)
    and later abolished the SFC.
    In 1984, Congress asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) to report on the
    progress of synthetic fuels development and to specifically respond to the question
    “Why have project sponsors dropped synthetic fuels projects?” GAO answered that
    oil had become plentiful, with about 8 to 10 million barrels per day in excess
    worldwide capacity, and the trend in rising oil prices had reversed after early 1981.
    President Reagan’s Executive Order 12287 had removed price and allocation
    controls on crude oil and refined petroleum products in 1981. For the first time since
    the early 1970s, market forces replaced regulatory programs and domestic crude oil
    prices were allowed to rise to a market-clearing level. Decontrol also set the stage
    for the relaxation of export restrictions on refined petroleum products. Oil demand
    had also declined, due in part to energy conservation measures and a worldwide
    economic recession. A more fundamental change had taken place in the way that oil
    commodities were traded. Prior to 1980, the price of crude oil was determined by
    long-term contracts, with 10% or so of internationally traded oil exchanged on the
    spot market.29 By the end of 1982, more than half of the internationally traded oil
    was exchanged on the spot market or tied to the spot market price. The most
    significant change occurred in 1983, with the introduction of crude oil futures by the
    New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). All served to undermine price setting
    by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
    Tax incentives for oil shale projects had also been reduced. Some of the
    generous oil depreciation allowances under the 1981 Economic Recovery Tax Act
    (P.L. 97-4 were rescinded in 1982 by the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act
    (P.L. 97-24, reducing potential project sponsors’ after-tax rates of return.
    The House began considering a bill to abolish the SFC in 1985, and Congress
    terminated the Corporation the following year under the Consolidated Omnibus
    Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 (P.L. 99-272). The Appendix to this report
    provides a more complete legislative history of the Synthetic Fuels program.(snip)

    from

    As Reagan concluded in the 1980's, gov't mandates and subsidy / tax credit programs, in conjunction with inflated prices and gov't control of supplies of conventional energy, are the only things that make alternative energy 'appear' to be price competitive. IMHO what was true in 1982 is also true in 2008.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Quote Originally Posted by Paris View Post
    The earth is a finite resource. Hence the basis of the study of economics.
    But, the Universe is not and it is continually expanding. If you can tap into the energy of Venus and divert it into Earth, we are golden for another Billion or so years.

    If you print enough money and give iPhones to people around the earth, we'll reach a faster solution.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Agree with Miabella. A commodity bubble is a really bad idea. While the big money hoards commodities, the average worker struggles paying for food and gas. Thus he/she is not investing, but paying an extra tax. You can buy commodities now for cheaper and sell later at a higher price, but what good are your depreciating dollars are if you need to turn around and spend your profit on ever increasing prices of food, gas and school tuition.

    Commodities bubble=killing off the worker.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    If you print enough money and give iPhones to people around the earth, we'll reach a faster solution.
    ... and if you give enough orangutans a keyboard, eventually one will write the complete works of William Shakespeare ...




    Commodities bubble=killing off the worker.
    but in reality the commodities bubble is a symptom of a larger problem ... the devaluation of the US dollar's purchasing power versus the world's other currencies. When a foreign supplier is attempting to market 'luxuries', be it a car or a large screen TV or a cell phone, the US dollar market clearing price is negotiable - because demand is elastic. If the US dollar denominated price for these 'luxuries' is set too high, the supplier simply loses market share. If the US dollar denominated price for these 'luxuries' is maintained at whatever level results in sustained sales volume, the foreign supplier sacrifices profitability (see Nissan profit decline at )

    However, when a foreign suppler has a 'necessity' to market that is also in demand by many other countries (many of which do not have decent roads for new cars or transmitters / electricity to run large screen TV's and do not have towers to run cell phones), because demand for that 'necessity' is more or less inelastic (i.e. oil, food etc.), then the market clearing price is a function of global currency values. If Europeans or Chinese or Japanese are willing to pay X in equivalent purchasing power local currency for an 'inelastic' necessity such as oil, then the US must pay the same equivalent purchasing power in terms of devalued US dollars or the supplier will either sell to the Europeans / Chinese / Japanese instead, or will leave the oil in the ground.

    Thus to the foreign suppliers of 'necessities', higher US dollar denominated prices are no skin of their butts. All the suppliers are seeking is fair payment for their 'inelastic' commodity in terms of purchasing power. However, to US workers whose paycheck US dollars are being devalued internationally, this immediately translates into higher oil / food prices.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 05-16-2008 at 09:44 AM.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Quote Originally Posted by xanfiles1 View Post
    But, the Universe is not and it is continually expanding. If you can tap into the energy of Venus and divert it into Earth, we are golden for another Billion or so years.

    Totally O/T, but the universe is finite, too. It is measurable and spherical in shape.


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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    Quote Originally Posted by xanfiles1 View Post
    But, the Universe is not and it is continually expanding. If you can tap into the energy of Venus and divert it into Earth, we are golden for another Billion or so years.
    Go long the Venus gas futures!
    Thanks man!
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    - Dr John Zoidberg

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    well the yanks were silly sending their computer industry overseas

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    ^^^ actually the computer industry sent itself overseas. Computer hardware manufacturing makes use of nasty chemicals, which US environmental dept's made it increasingly difficult and expensive to use. Software royalty taxes in the US are much higher than in other countries, prompting Microsoft and others to 'move' the home country of their software packages to Ireland.

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    Default Re: US in Depression in Q1

    For two years, I have been writing about what I call a Decession, which is far worse than a Recession, but not as bad as a Depression.
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...epression.html
    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
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