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Thread: Should I see my USD?

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    Featured Member Meea's Avatar
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    Default Should I see my USD?

    I have a considerable amount of US dollars in a savings account (more than 20K). Should I sell them for the currency of my country or should I buy Euros?

    Fuck, I already lost about 25% due to the decrease of the value of the USD. I don't know if to bite the bulet and sell now while i'M at a loss of 25%, or rist losing even more but not sell the dollars, or invest in something more stable?

    I'm losing sleep over this.

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    I'm in the same situation.

    I use mine for my USD trading...which is good enough for me for now.

    But I'm sort of bummed I kept my funds in USD at all, because I was advised to exchange it to CAD when it was 1:1.24 CAD:USD, and I didn't...

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Put them in a saving account and exchange them during a time where the dollar isnt declining.




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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    this is a 'crystal ball' issue, with the future direction of the US dollar being at the mercy of everything from Fed policy to foreign central bank decisions to the outcome of the November election.

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    Featured Member Meea's Avatar
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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    The exchange rate to my currency 1 year ago was 1:4.3 and now it's 1:3.2

    I could've bought a car with that money, or payed 1 year's rent.
    Fuck

    Is it likely for the dollar to decline EVEN further? and if it begins to grow, how much time are we looking at? 1 year, 5 years, more?

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    ^^^ again it depends on whose 'Windex' is being used on the crystal ball. There are some financial talking heads that are calling for the US dollar to drop all the way to 2:1 against the Euro versus the current 1.55:1 or so if the election favors big spending tax increasing politicians. On the other hand there are others who are claiming that foreign central banks will follow a currency intervention policy that will quickly increase the US dollar above 1.5:1 against the Euro as a self-preservation measure for European industries and Japanese banks.

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by Meea View Post
    The exchange rate to my currency 1 year ago was 1:4.3 and now it's 1:3.2

    I could've bought a car with that money, or payed 1 year's rent.
    Fuck

    Is it likely for the dollar to decline EVEN further? and if it begins to grow, how much time are we looking at? 1 year, 5 years, more?
    I don't understand your question.

    Are you earning in one currency and spending in another? or are you just comparing your USD / your Home country exchange rate for giggles sake

    If you are earning in USD and spending/saving in USD you really shouldn't worry about currency exchange rates. It is a waste of time

    If you are earning/saving in USD and spending in a foreign currency again there are down years and there are up years. In the end, it will average out and usually US$ comes out ahead in the long run.

    If you try to time the market by exchanging currencies (which has a huge spread to begin with) you'll more likely end up with less money but also feel more like a loser

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    God/dess Lysondra's Avatar
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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by xanfiles1 View Post
    I don't understand your question.

    Are you earning in one currency and spending in another? or are you just comparing your USD / your Home country exchange rate for giggles sake

    If you are earning in USD and spending/saving in USD you really shouldn't worry about currency exchange rates. It is a waste of time

    If you are earning/saving in USD and spending in a foreign currency again there are down years and there are up years. In the end, it will average out and usually US$ comes out ahead in the long run.

    If you try to time the market by exchanging currencies (which has a huge spread to begin with) you'll more likely end up with less money but also feel more like a loser
    Oh yes you should worry about it. The lowering of the value of a dollar causes 20k t turn to 15k in one year and makes it very worth while for looking into.


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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lysondra View Post
    Oh yes you should worry about it. The lowering of the value of a dollar causes 20k t turn to 15k in one year and makes it very worth while for looking into.
    Yeah and what are you going to do about it except lose a few hair and long term health?

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Switch currencies so you keep your money if not gain more? It's not terribly difficult to follow. I have the exchange rates of five countries current in my head at all times, usually.


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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lysondra View Post
    Switch currencies so you keep your money if not gain more? It's not terribly difficult to follow. I have the exchange rates of five countries current in my head at all times, usually.
    Switch to which currency? How do you know the switched currency is better? What if you lose 25% on the new currency after you switch?

    Knowing currency rates in your head means nothing. You are just speculating. Nobody can time currency exchange rates. You have no clue what future scenarios are being priced in US$.

    In the end, a currency reflects a country's Productivity growth. If you just stick with a single country's currency instead of jumping around like a headless chicken, you'll average out ups and downs.

    So staying put is the best strategy

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Well OP, here's what my basic plan is. I've chosen a number that I would be happy exchanging it at. Sometime in the next 40 years, the currencies will likely align at that number (though it's not guaranteed, blah blah I know). So, when they do, I'll exchange. Basically, I consider my USD part of my retirement savings, not to be spent anyways, so it doesn't really matter what its current value is.

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by xanfiles1 View Post
    Switch to which currency? How do you know the switched currency is better? What if you lose 25% on the new currency after you switch?

    Knowing currency rates in your head means nothing. You are just speculating. Nobody can time currency exchange rates. You have no clue what future scenarios are being priced in US$.

    In the end, a currency reflects a country's Productivity growth. If you just stick with a single country's currency instead of jumping around like a headless chicken, you'll average out ups and downs.

    So staying put is the best strategy
    Hmmm, you don't know much about currencies then. Ever heard what happened to the mark? Yeah, sticking with a sinking ship is so totally a good idea! Having the exchange rates memorized is good for seeing patterns. I have them all memorized every day and can see where they're all going. It's good to see a strong one and put money in that while it's going up.


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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Oh yes you should worry about it. The lowering of the value of a dollar causes 20k t turn to 15k in one year and makes it very worth while for looking into
    this perspective from the 'international' girls actually provides a very important global viewpoint as to what is going on with the US dollar's 'purchasing power'. When you are living / working / paying bills / buying gasoline in a foreign country, the US dollar's loss of 'purchasing power' is all to evident in relation to relatively unchanging prices in terms of that foreign currency. However when you live / work / pay bills / buy gasoline in a US dollar country, your viewpoint tends to look at the US dollar as an 'absolute' thus the dollar's loss of 'purchasing power' is seen in the form of higher US dollar denominated prices. On a global economy basis this makes perfect sense.

    However from the US dollar centric viewpoint, the real 'culprit' often escapes blame (i.e. gov't deficit spending, unrestrained printing of 'new' dollars, deliberate Fed intervention to set interest rates at unrealistically low levels to help banks and subprime borrowers stave off bankruptcy etc.). Instead, the targets of blame are related to areas of highest rises US dollar denominated prices for 'world commodities', i.e. the US oil companies, US food sellers etc.

    Investing in CD's denominated in foreign currencies, and investing in ETF's indexed to foreign currencies, has been discussed in past threads.

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Thanks Melonie, for understanding what I was saying. Let me put it this way: Three years ago JUST THREE, it was very very profitable to be a camgirl from Australia dealing in American currency. After conversion you were making $10 a minute!! Now you're making $4. In three years, working in America has made the exchange pointless and a lot of foreign camgirls, webgirls and people who ship to America or get their money in USD from the internet or elsewhere have seen a DRAMATIC decrease in income.


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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lysondra View Post
    Hmmm, you don't know much about currencies then. Ever heard what happened to the mark? Yeah, sticking with a sinking ship is so totally a good idea! Having the exchange rates memorized is good for seeing patterns. I have them all memorized every day and can see where they're all going. It's good to see a strong one and put money in that while it's going up.
    So, you know where currencies are going based on

    i) What the Mark did 60 years ago? Do you have a clue why the Mark went the way it did? What kind of research is that? Just because you know a currency that tanked doesn't mean you can predict which currency is going to tank next.

    What makes you think the fate of Mark will not happen to the currency you exchange to?

    ii) Current Exchange rates:
    If prices are indicator of future prices, then banks can write computer programs and make money all day. Computers can see patterns much better and execute trades much faster.

    If you are so sure about predicting prices based on patterns why don't you open a virtual currency portfolio and see how you really do?

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Banks DO make computer programs and DO trades all day on the exchange.


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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by Meea View Post
    Should I sell them for the currency of my country or should I buy Euros?
    Why haven't you mentioned what currency is 'your country'? How can a question like this be answered without that vital piece of information?

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lysondra View Post
    Banks DO make computer programs and DO trades all day on the exchange.
    And they Do Blow up which proves that Pattern Trading is as stupid as Astrology

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by xanfiles1 View Post
    Switch to which currency? How do you know the switched currency is better? What if you lose 25% on the new currency after you switch?

    Knowing currency rates in your head means nothing. You are just speculating. Nobody can time currency exchange rates. You have no clue what future scenarios are being priced in US$.

    In the end, a currency reflects a country's Productivity growth. If you just stick with a single country's currency instead of jumping around like a headless chicken, you'll average out ups and downs.

    So staying put is the best strategy
    Some would argue that understanding the likely movement of a currency is easier than picking an individual stock.

    If you can get your head around macro economics, there aren't actually all that many variables to take into account when assessing the likely strength or weakness of a currency. Factors such as Purchasing Power Parity, inflation rates, government debt levels, interest rates and national economic growth forecasts will cover most of the info that a person needs.

    They then need to be compared to other currencies against which the one in question will move. Currencies are, after all, relative.

    George Soros argues in a couple of his books that playing currencies is very easy. Because of the slow moving nature of an economy, a trend can be followed profitably for many months at a time before the winds change direction. Then, as he describes, there will often be a sharp reversal where the big money is really made. He built his career on picking those big moments and loading up. Due to the huge size of positions he took, he was often able to actually force the change he expected. Incredible really.

    Much of this theory he calls relflexivity. = The ability of market participants to make the market move in the way they want because they and others moved in that direction. Their weight of money then brings others on board, reinforcing the direction. A sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.

    A very interesting area of finance. At least to me...

    Ok - you can all wake up again now!!

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by xanfiles1 View Post
    And they Do Blow up which proves that Pattern Trading is as stupid as Astrology
    Things happen with everything. My partner's brother is a key engineer in the field of computing these things for banks. Shit happens, but more often than not, it doesn't. Like ANY investing.


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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lysondra View Post
    Things happen with everything. My partner's brother is a key engineer in the field of computing these things for banks. Shit happens, but more often than not, it doesn't. Like ANY investing.
    Shit Happens and that is exactly the reason Patterns don't work. Past Prices indicate Past Investor activity, there is nothing in it that can predict the future.

    The worst part about shit happens is, it wipes out all your previous gains (which you may have noticed is exactly happening to banks)

    At the end of it all, none of these strategies beat the market which means you have wasted time, resource & transaction fees, stuff that you could have deployed elsewhere and made more money

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    That goes the same for ALL investments. Like stocks, like property... watching a pattern can help you see what will work best. FOR EVERYTHING.


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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lysondra View Post
    That goes the same for ALL investments. Like stocks, like property... watching a pattern can help you see what will work best. FOR EVERYTHING.
    You don't need patterns for

    i) Dollar Cost Index Investing
    ii) Value Investing on Individual Stocks

    Warren Buffett didn't make money by studying patterns/charts or by reading macroeconomic trends

    With Stocks or any Cash Generating Assets, there is some underlying value that can be measured while non-cash generating assets like Tulip Bulbs, Some Internet Stocks, Gold, Currencies, Commodities, price is pure speculation. If you end up on the wrong side you'll be wiped out

    With Indexing, you get diversification aka free lunch

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    Default Re: Should I see my USD?

    attempting to circle back on topic ...

    The salient point in this thread is that there are quite a few international girls who have business arrangements which result in payment denominated in US dollars, whereas their home currency / cost of living is denominated in a different 'home' currency. As a couple of girls pointed out, being paid the same amount of US dollars represents a huge pay cut in terms of their 'home' currency. And as pointed out by the original poster, girls who have simply banked their US dollar earnings in US dollar denominated accounts have seen the equivalent 'home' currency valuation of that US dollar denominated account balance decline severely. The question is, given the exchange rate losses that have already materialized in the past couple of years, does it make sense to continue to 'ride out' the US dollar versus their 'home' currency, does it make more sense to exchange those US dollars for 'home' currency before the dollar declines and further, or does it make sense to exchange those US dollars for a 'strong' currency other than their 'home' currency.

    Stuart has described the 'fundamentals' which apply to currency exchange rates. Unfortunately, besides 'fundamentals', other factors such as international speculation and central bank interventions can also have large effects on currency exchange rates. IMHO the Swiss Franc is likely to be the strongest currency as the US bank failure / FED rescue scenario continues to play out in slow motion over the next couple of years.



    the above chart covers the change in Swiss Franc value vs the US dollar since I first brought up the subject in late January ...

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