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Thread: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial wind!

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    Default chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial wind!




    Thanks to ethanol mandates, thanks to increasing the costs of doing businesses for US industries (energy, taxes, environmental etc.) to the point where they outsource / relocate, and thanks in some small measure to hybrid vehicle subsidies / green power subsidies etc., US oil demand has essentially remained flat for the past 4 years. During those same 4 years, Chinese demand for oil has grown geometrically. While not shown on this graph, the same is true of India, Vietnam and any 'growing' third world country. Thus worldwide demand for oil is guaranteed to grow no matter what the US does, and world pricing of open market oil will continue to stay high.

    Basically there are only two things which could short-circuit this trend. The first is a worldwide economic depression that would reduce oil demand in China / India / Vietnam along with the USA. The second is a new source of oil for the US which doesn't have to be purchased on the international open market.

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    If cutting oil US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial wind, then I guess the alternative (NOT cutting US oil consumption) would be the proverbial pi$$ing in ones pants(ies)!

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Oh great, we are back to you saying since China is doing what they are doing that America shouldn't bother trying to do ANYTHING to lessen dependence on oil. Not just foreign oil but oil period.

    Would you not ever wash your clothes b/c a neighbor didn't wash their clothes?

    Would you not eat because a siblings was anorexic?

    Would you not pay your phone bill simply because your cousin didn't pay theirs phone bill?


    Your logic about the US, China and oil is the same thing as agreeing to not do those things just because someone else isn't doing them.
    Last edited by LadyLuck; 06-19-2008 at 07:58 PM.
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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Basically there are only two things which could short-circuit this trend. The first is a worldwide economic depression that would reduce oil demand in China / India / Vietnam along with the USA. The second is a new source of oil for the US which doesn't have to be purchased on the international open market.
    1st off China and India would need to reduce their use to have an actual impact, though the impact would be slow and not really felt for months down the road as oil prices for Jan 2009 delivery are already at $135/barrell, therefore the companies need to recoup this costs.

    Lets not even get started the impact that the European Union has had on oil-prices.

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    I laugh in the face of $4.50 a gallon gas! Yep, GWB has done more to curb the US carbon emissions than he ever intended. Gas will go to $10 or even $15 a gallon. I'm laughing my ass off just thinking about it. Shadenfraude is oh so good sometimes!


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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    ^^^ I agree with the point that Paris is facetiously raising ... that we're screwed no matter what actions we choose to take (or not to take). But if the idea of driving what remains of US businesses to outsourcing / closing down the US operations due to ever increasing energy costs makes you feel better, who am I to argue. Of course, it's also possible that somebody you know currently works for one of those US businesses and will lose their job as a result ...

    another example from today's news -

    (snip)" NEW YORK, June 19 (Reuters) - Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc said on Thursday it will temporarily idle half the production at its Rockdale, Texas, smelter because of local power supply problems.

    Three of the plant's six operating potlines -- representing approximately 120,000 metric tons per year of production -- have been shut down as a result of the electricity supply interruptions and local market energy costs increasing to as much as $2,000 to $4,000 per megawatt hour [20 cents to 40 cents per kWh - sic] during peak time, the company said.

    Output at the remaining three potlines is planned to continue using contracted long-term [low cost - sic] power, Alcoa said.

    As a result of the temporary idling, the company will begin laying off approximately 250 people at the plant."(snip)

    not to worry though ... those 250 workers will probably be able to transfer to China, where unscrubbed coal fired power is available to run Aluminum production for 3 cents/kWh and where two new unscrubbed coal fired power plants will come online this week (and every week) ! It would be one thing if US policy allowed other affordable sources of energy to replace oil and gas i.e. coal or nuclear. However, under current policy the only politically acceptable (but economically unviable) new energy sources are solar and wind ... which are even more expensive and even less 'reliable' than oil and gas.

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Life does not exist in a vacuum. Some people are getting filthy rich in this economy. Flooding aside, corn and soy farmers are making a killing eating the oil company's lunch. There are local companies in my town producing bioethanol from yard waste (grass clippings) and biodiesel from used fryer grease. There are auto shops specializing in flexfuel conversions. Maybe those Alcoa workers could retrain to convert vehicles to flex fuel. It's really easy, I did it myself on my car, and I'm no mechanical genius!

    The mass transit projects that were mocked by the conservatives are now really very useful to Portland metro commuters.

    The problem with conservative ideals is that it is looking to the past. The liberal ideals look to the future and anticipate needs before those needs arise. Sure, it seemed silly to begin a light rail infrastructure in the Portland area 20 years ago; it was prohibitively expensive and hardly anyone even used the bus system that was already in place. Today the trains and buses are held up as an example of superb urban planning for mass transit.

    So I ask you this; Are you in a place to take advantage of the hard times (remember, no vacuum) or are you going to try to push us into the past? 'Cause, ya know, you can't turn back the clock. Just ask the buggy whip makers.


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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Flooding aside, corn and soy farmers are making a killing eating the oil company's lunch. There are local companies in my town producing bioethanol from yard waste (grass clippings) and biodiesel from used fryer grease. There are auto shops specializing in flexfuel conversions. Maybe those Alcoa workers could retrain to convert vehicles to flex fuel. It's really easy, I did it myself on my car, and I'm no mechanical genius!

    The mass transit projects that were mocked by the conservatives are now really very useful to Portland metro commuters.
    again the 'time bomb' associated with ethanol / biodiesel / flexfuel is the additional cost which must be borne by fellow taxpayers to fund the farm subsidies / ethanol production tax credits / avoided road tax ... gov't subsidies which are the only reason that these technologies 'appear' to be economically viable / profitable. In essence, people earning their living in this field are being handed a gov't check paid for via dipping into the public tax till - basically no different than collecting a welfare check.

    The liberal ideals look to the future and anticipate needs before those needs arise. Sure, it seemed silly to begin a light rail infrastructure in the Portland area 20 years ago; it was prohibitively expensive and hardly anyone even used the bus system that was already in place. Today the trains and buses are held up as an example of superb urban planning for mass transit.
    wonderful ... as long as someone also anticipated the tax revenue needs to fund these systems and pay their ongoing operating costs. In the vast majority of cases, however, the bulk of these costs are actually borne by state taxpayers and state gasoline buyers (i.e. those who must pay road tax) who don't benefit at all from the existance of the big city light rail / public transit systems - whereas the big city public transit users and employees are the beneficiaries of state tax money / road tax subsidies which are collected from those suburban and rural state taxpayers.

    In the handful of instances where studies on such costs versus revenues have been done, it was found that in order to make urban light rail / public transit economically self-sustaining, it would be necessary to essentially double the current fares. Since doing so was deemed to be politically unacceptable, public transit fares were kept at artificially low levels and the differential continues to be made up for via subsidies to urban light rail / public transit funded by state income / property taxes as well as by state road tax on motor fuels. Like ethanol / biodiesel / flexfuel, it is very easy to attempt to draw conclusions in regard to the true benefits of urban light rail / mass transit when one neglects the existance of gov't subsidies and one assumes that people who do NOT directly benefit will continue to fund those subsidies forever without complaining !
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-19-2008 at 10:34 PM.

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Handing out "welfare checks" is what our gov't does. The American public wants big gov't, but some refuse to admit it. People want that safety net and the ability to maximize their free time for self-indulgent pursuits. I don't have a problem with the gov't incentivizing the private sector in pursuit of new technology and would hardly equate that with a welfare check. If it wasn't for such incentives Oklahoma would still be unsettled.

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    ^^^ yes but ultimately the subsidies which pursuaded people to move to Oklahoma were no longer necessary, and the Oklahoma economy eventually became self-sustaining. There is no such hope in sight for ethanol / biodiesel ... well I take that back, when gasoline reaches $10 a gallon ...

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Unbelievable!

    I swear it's just gets more and more wacky everyday around here, lol! Guess that's what makes it such an interesting place, lol!

    Pstt- hey Mel , hate to brake it to ya but those oil companies I so strongly believe you’re heavily invested in are all getting huge subsidies too. It's a funny thing how you complain about all the other subsidies out there EXCEPT those going to oil companies.
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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    A - as I have already told you, at the moment I don't have a single dollar invested in oil or any other energy stocks

    B - true that oil companies do get a depletion allowance tax deduction which is a form of gov't subsidy I suppose. However, the future profitability or bankruptcy of oil companies in NOT dependent on a continuing stream of tax funded subsidy money, which is clearly not the case for solar / wind / biofuels. Additionally oil companies are net tax PAYERS, whereas solar / wind / biofuels companies are net tax money absorbers.

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Yes,I know you did, but I told you before I don't buy it. It's the only thing that makes any sense to me about why you are the way you are about anything that could threaten oil company profits.

    On your second point, when you start honestly objecting to oil company subsidies then I will better consider your complaints about biofuel subsidies. Otherwise it's just more evidence to me that you're invested in oil.
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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    ^^^ no big deal ... end the oil depletion allowance tax deductions and let the price of oil rise to make up the difference ! Happy now ? Of course, in fairness, we would also need to end the quota on imported sugar cane based ethanol, end the 56 cent per gallon stealth tax kickback to US ethanol refiners, end the $1 per gallon production tax credit for biofuels etc. However, by doing so, we would also end the economic viability of the US ethanol / biofuel industries and along with it the ability of these industries to attract new investment.

    This isn't wild conjecture either. History shows what happened to subsidized 'alternative energy' programs started under Jimmy Carter when those subsidies were later cut off under the Reagan administration - they disappeared from the face of the earth due to an inability to fund themselves without massive ongoing injections of tax money subsidies !

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    LOL, well ofcourse Reagan cut them off. He like alot of Republicans was obsessed with wanting to wage war and needed those funds for his defense programs. Plus it was seen as a Dem pet project and you Republicans have long considered anything Dems like or want to pursue as things that should be shut down no matter how helpful or useful it may be for the country. It's a knee jerk reaction from your side of the fence that has been going on with your party for pretty much my whole lifetime and continues on today.

    Also just because Reagan shut it down doesn't mean that if left alone those alternative energy programs would not be able to fund themselves at this point. We'll never know now if that would have been the case though. Trying to say it would or wouldn't is just conjecture.

    I think soon we are going to find out if recent alternative energy programs can eventually fund themselves in the future because it's becoming more and more clear that we must try or all is lost. Both from an economic standpoint as well as an environmental standpoint.

    What's that saying about insanity again? Something about continuing to do something that doesn't work and expecting a different result. That is what you advcate- change nothing and yet expect things to change for the better.

    Now don't get me wrong I don't believe that biofules is the one and only answer. There is no one and only answer. That mindset is what got us into this trouble to begin with because for so long fossil fuels have for the most part been seen as the one and only form of energy.

    I believe that biofuels need alot of tweaking but there are one part of the long-term solution along with other forms of alternative energy such as wind, solar power. Those are all things I’ve seen you vehemently oppose.. Along with pretty much anything else that would cut into oil company profits.

    The truth of the matter though is that the biggest and best thing we can do NOW though is conserve. Things like hybrids and the new light bulbs fall into that category for example, as do just being smarter about when and how much energy we use. I know you have opposed the existence of hybrids, not sure about the light bulbs but I suspect that like all other things that help conserve energy you probably take some issue with things like that being available for use, because obviously it cuts into the profits of the fossil fuel industry.

    What it all boils down to though is that when things stop working change must occur or they cease to exist.

    The status quo you wish to continue with is NOT working anymore so that means change is necessary.
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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    In essence, people earning their living in this field are being handed a gov't check paid for via dipping into the public tax till - basically no different than collecting a welfare check.
    Are you suggesting that the oil companies are NOT on the pubic dole? I'd rather fund American farmers than Arab Sheiks, personally. FWIW, I don't see farmers driving gold plated Rolls Royces.

    *I knew you would bring up the government subsidies. Exxon/ Mobile got $14 Billion (yes, with a B!) in subsidies and tax breaks in 2007 alone.



    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    wonderful ... as long as someone also anticipated the tax revenue needs to fund these systems and pay their ongoing operating costs.
    Somebody did...They are known as the Democrats.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    In the handful of instances where studies on such costs versus revenues have been done, it was found that in order to make urban light rail / public transit economically self-sustaining, it would be necessary to essentially double the current fares. Since doing so was deemed to be politically unacceptable, public transit fares were kept at artificially low levels and the differential continues to be made up for via subsidies to urban light rail / public transit funded by state income / property taxes as well as by state road tax on motor fuels. Like ethanol / biodiesel / flexfuel, it is very easy to attempt to draw conclusions in regard to the true benefits of urban light rail / mass transit when one neglects the existance of gov't subsidies and one assumes that people who do NOT directly benefit will continue to fund those subsidies forever without complaining !
    Unfortunately we aren't talking about something as simple as 2+2=4. If the transit is available the revenue is not garnered from rider fares alone. For instance, if there were no mass transit (*looks pointedly at Southern California) then those just entering the workforce are burdened with making a choice between high housing costs or high transportation costs just to have access to that career. For some there is no option, and they are forced to work in jobs that are undesirable, low paying or remain unemployed. If the worker had access to a good job, via reliable transportation, that worker would then earn more money and contribute to the upkeep and maintenance through his/her higher tax bracket.

    More people earning more money and paying more in taxes = a stronger economy. If the fundamentals to higher earnings (education, transportation, housing) are too expensive to be had by the average earner, then you have economic collapse, just like what is happening in Southern California.

    This is a no-brainer. It has been shown to work in many, many societies throughout history. This is not guess work or speculation. Brazil is an excellent example of how becoming energy independent has helped their society to grow strong and rich in a matter of a single generation.

    We can't go back. The past is the past and energy sources of the past will not power the future. Imagine if our nation remained dependent on steam power? We would be worse off than Africa in rates of poverty. We moved ahead, got off the wood fuel and invented something better...Petroleum products. It's time to do it again, we need to get off the Petroleum and move into the next phase of human history.

    Of course, if Americans refuse to adapt to a changing world due to our own stubbornness to embrace new ideas, we deserve what we get (poverty, starvation, disease and becoming a third world nation). It's not like we weren't warned that the issue of changing energy needs would occur during our generation. I've heard about it all my life.

    There is nothing new about needing to become energy independent. Why do people keep acting like the change from oil to renewable energy is so radical and drastic? As a nation we first addressed this issue in the 1970's, ferchristsakes! Yeah, like 30+ years ago Americans KNEW we needed to get off our oil addiction, and here we are still sitting on our asses demanding that somebody needs to lower gas prices for the good of our economy.

    It appears Americans don't have enough sense to come in out of the rain.


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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Quote Originally Posted by LadyLuck View Post
    Unbelievable!

    I swear it's just gets more and more wacky everyday around here, lol! Guess that's what makes it such an interesting place, lol!
    Haha! I agree. I call it the "New Flat Earth Society". I also find myself fighting back feelings of incredulousness on a daily basis. It's like "Wait a minute, are we living on the same planet here?"


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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Does that mean you are both volunteering to allow a new Nuclear power plant to be built in your back yard ? Because Nuclear Power is the one and only proven, economically viable, environmentally 'friendly' (in terms of CO2 and pollutant emissions) option which is totally independent of fossil fuels ! I'm a strong advocate of Nuclear power expansion, despite the fact that building new nuclear plants would cost the oil and gas industry billions of dollars in lost sales / profits !

    As to your comment re hybrid cars, I don't object to hybrid cars at all. My only objection is the fact that thanks to liberal gov't policies, buyers of new hybrid cars get to pay about 75-80% of the actual cost, while their neighbors are forced to pay the 20-25% balance of the cost !


    Exxon/ Mobile got $14 Billion (yes, with a B!) in subsidies and tax breaks in 2007 alone.
    and Exxon Mobil corp paid a 41% corporate tax rate = $30 billion dollars in 2007 beyond whatever subsidies and tax breaks existed.



    On the other hand, solar / wind / ethanol companies paid essentially zilch in net taxes thanks to direct and indirect subsidies both to the companies themselves and to their investors. In fact, many of their investors REDUCED the taxes they would have otherwise had to pay on unrelated earnings because of the tax credits they received in conjunction with their solar / wind / ethanol investment.

    In other words, where solar / wind / ethanol companies constitute a large net drain on other taxpayers, Exxon Mobil is one of the largest single contributors of positive tax revenue ! In point of fact, Exxon Mobil's tax payments for 2007 just about equalled the TOTAL taxes paid by the lower earning 50% of Americans ( that's 65 million people) !!!!! Of course, you're free to continue advocating the 'killing of the golden goose' ...
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-20-2008 at 02:45 PM.

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Yes, I am okay with a nuclear power plant in my backyard. I used to live 20 minutes from the Trojan Nuclear power plant in Longview, Wa. I had no problem with it at all, and loved the low electric costs of living so close to such cheap power.

    Especially considering a new technology that is being utilized by Ukrainian and Israeli governments to create fuel out of nuclear waste, nuclear energy really is the wave of the sustainable energy future. It is clean and completely renewable energy source. With this new development for turning nuclear waste into fuel (with waste materials of glass and oxygen), I see nuclear energy as the way of the future for the whole planet.

    Mel, I know you think we are being dumb. I just don't understand what the problem is with contributing to the community (or nation) in the form of taxes, that supports it's citizens? Everyone understands that stuff costs money. The money has to come from somewhere. Individuals cannot provide for 100% of their own needs, it is just impossible.

    It is the whole idea of government financed public works that made America an economic powerhouse. We started it way back in the beginning of our nation, and the benefits have been seen by all Americans. Libertarianism will work just about as well as Communism. (in other words, not at all)

    Democratically regulated capitalism is the only economic model that bears fruit. But that requires taxes to install infrastructure to create opportunity to expand growth. There is no reason to be bitter about that process. There is no reason to resent paying taxes that funded the college education of the Doctor that is attending to you when you have to visit the ER.

    Sure, there are those who take advantage. There always has been and there always will be. But for me personally, I'd prefer those who are "gaming" the system to be getting hundreds of dollars, not billions of dollars like the oil companies.

    We are the government in this country. If we don't like how something is being handled, we can change it through the electoral process, through the initiative process (at the state level) and through the courts. If that isn't enough, then everyone who is a citizen has the ability to run for elected office. I'm tired of hearing people complaining about the "government" or blaming the "government" for this problem or that issue. If you don't like it, do something! We all need to look in the mirror and see that we are the ones doing it to ourselves.


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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    France does it and it works pretty good for them so yes like Paris, I am open to it too.
    There never was a good war or a bad peace.

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    then liberals and conservatives apparently come full circle in agreeing that replacing oil / gas / coal fired power plants with Nuclear power is a viable option that will reduce dependence on fossil fuels, reduce pollution and CO2 emissions etc. WITHOUT negative consequences to the US economy / US employment.

    Now how do we start a political advocacy group to fast-track the construction of new Nuclear power plants and electric transmission lines over the objection of rabid environmentalist opposition ?

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    then liberals and conservatives apparently come full circle in agreeing that replacing oil / gas / coal fired power plants with Nuclear power is a viable option that will reduce dependence on fossil fuels, reduce pollution and CO2 emissions etc. WITHOUT negative consequences to the US economy / US employment.

    Now how do we start a political advocacy group to fast-track the construction of new Nuclear power plants and electric transmission lines over the objection of rabid environmentalist opposition ?
    Step 1 is education....just like everything else.

    I had an interview at a company tht promotes other energy resouces, wind to nuclear.

    The issue is that the 2 remaining memories of nuclear are: 1) Three-Mile Island, 2) Chernobyl.

    You need to turn the tide against these two 1-off circumstances.

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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Now how do we start a political advocacy group to fast-track the construction of new Nuclear power plants and electric transmission lines over the objection of rabid environmentalist opposition ?
    Don't think for a second that big oil lobbyists wouldn't put up a fight as well.

  24. #24
    Veteran Member LadyLuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    Ofcourse many of us out here who feel reducing oil consumption is of utmost importance are willing to consider nuclear power.

    One very important thing though is that it needs to be part of a series of replacement energy sources. We MUST get out of the single source mindset that got us in both the environmental and economic clusterf*ck we are in now.
    There never was a good war or a bad peace.

    Benjamin Franklin

  25. #25
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: chart of the week - why cutting US oil consumption is pi$$ing in the proverbial w

    We MUST get out of the single source mindset that got us in both the environmental and economic clusterf*ck we are in now.
    We seem to be in complete agreement on this point. However, I believe we start to disagree when the proposed solution involves the de-facto exporting of former American production facilities and former American jobs to China as a means of reducing American oil and gas consumption as well as a means of reducing American pollution and CO2 emissions ! See recent posts in the ''$4 gas causes pain' thread ...

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