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Thread: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks)

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    Default say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks)

    (snip)"So much for "geopolitical risk" not being a factor in the markets, and for that matter so much for the bulls. Today was a psychological blow for traders as the DJIA crossed under the 12,000 level today. Israel's conducting of a training exercise to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities was the excuse needed for the bears to assume full control. Oil prices rose over $2.00 per barrel to $134.77 today, even ahead of the weekend meeting to explore ways to boost Middle East refinery production. Throw in the excuse of a Quadruple Witching Day on top of it and that's all she wrote. These are the unofficial closing levels for major US index levels:

    DJIA 11,842.69 (-1.8%)
    S&P500 1,317.93 (-1.9%)
    NASDAQ 2,406.09 (-2.3%)
    10 YR T-Note 4.137% (-0.06%)

    (snip)
    Cincinnati Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: CINF) managed to buck much of the downward trend today despite the company's poor guidance comments after losing money on investments and its insurance exposure to the massive Midwest Flooding. Shares were up 0.6% at $28.78 in the final minutes of trading today.

    Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) were both hit hard today after S&P placed the Big 3 Auto Makers' credit ratings on review under a "negative credit watch" list. To show how sensitive the market is still treating credit risk, Ford shares were down over 8% at $5.80 and GM shares were down 6.6% at $13.81 in the final minutes today.

    Despite word out of Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) saying they weren't going to go on a web buying spree to eliminate additional dilution fears, shares of the software beast were down 2.5% at $28.19 in the final minutes of the day.

    The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) performed better than the market today, but shares saw a muted reaction after the company put its nitrogen fertilizer business up for sale. Shares were up 0.6% at $152.16 in the final minutes of trading.

    Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) saw a drop after reports came out that the company is sending away 3 executives and is considering a reorganization. Shares were down 2.7% at $22.11 in the final minutes of the day."(snip)

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ...

    could this be part of the reason ?

    (snip)"June 20, 2008

    Islamic Funds Avoid the Financial Meltdown
    by Richard Shaw

    Barron's June 16, 2008 featured an article, Keeping the Faith, about how funds adhering to Islamic (Shariah) investment principles have avoided the greatest effects of the current credit crisis.

    We found the same tendency to be true in a study we performed for Business Islamica Magazine of Dubai, U.A.E in 2007. (download PDF version of article here).

    Interest, whether paying or earning it, is to be avoided in Shariah compliant investing. The result is that banks and insurance companies, for example (fund proxies: KBE, KIE, and XLF) are not found in Islamic funds.

    There are other prohibited investments, but the overwhelming economic impact of Shariah investing is the avoidance of financial companies and leveraged companies.

    The story is not all positive however. As logic would suggest, and as our study demonstrated, Shariah compliant funds outperform the general market (whether US, Europe, or Japan) in times when financials do badly, and underperform the general market when financials do well.

    In any event, Shariah compliant funds are proliferating globally and their assets under management are growing very rapidly, due in part to the increased petro-dollar flows to regions where Shariah compliant investing is attractive."(snip)

    from

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    could this be part of the reason ?

    ...

    We found the same tendency to be true in a study we performed for Business Islamica Magazine of Dubai, U.A.E in 2007. (download PDF version of article here).
    Bunch of news about fundsin Dubai recently... eg.

    Global Investment House and Dubai Islamic Bank, in collaboration with Millennium Capital, are planning to launch the Global DIB Millennium Islamic Buyout Fund, which has a target of US$500 million.
    http://www.finalternatives.com/node/3756

    The Dubai government is backing five new Shariah-compliant hedge funds, alongside Barclays Capital.
    http://www.finalternatives.com/node/4662
    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
    - Dr John Zoidberg

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ...

    ^^^ arguably, the Sharia aspect of banking / investing is also beginning to factor into recent actions taken by many US banks which now have significant minority ownership by Islamic investors - with the largest and most well known being Citibank. See recent posts in the 'Average Citizen Tapped Out' thread, which describes recent action by such banks to reduce borrowing limits to 'subprime' customers on credit card lines of credit, home equity lines of credit etc.

    If the Sharia aspect really is a 'stealth' factor in recent financial events, this would tend to indicate that the component stocks of the DOW, S&P etc which rely on plentiful venture capital / arbitrage lending / easy consumer credit are destined to decline a lot further ! On the other hand, those component stocks which rely on good old fashioned manufacturing and sale of basic necessity products should do very well !

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ arguably, the Sharia aspect of banking / investing is also beginning to factor into recent actions taken by many US banks which now have significant minority ownership by Islamic investors - with the largest and most well known being Citibank.
    In Citi's case, they're just really screwed A bunch of pre-June news is summarised here http://bankimplode.com/blog/2008/05/22/citigroup/ but there's been steady bad news since then too.

    Update:
    Steve Bowman, the head of hedge-fund services in Citigroup Inc.'s investment bank, is leaving the company, said an internal memo Friday.
    http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2008-...manLeaves.html
    Last edited by person; 06-21-2008 at 09:44 PM. Reason: Update!
    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
    - Dr John Zoidberg

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks

    even in these gloomy times
    people out there in the market are making bucketloads of money
    you just gotta know where to look

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks

    also i believe the time is comming to buy buy buy housing in the united states


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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks

    ^^^ not to drift too far off topic, but in the absence of unrestrained easy credit and unsustainably low teaser interest rates, the eventual price of housing must correspond with the ability of 'average' Americans to afford that housing. If you do some projection calculations in regard to the probable future after-tax incomes of 'average' Americans being in the $40k per year ballpark, and if you limit the 'safe' percentage of after tax income which can be spent directly on housing to 25% (not counting property taxes / insurance etc.), this means that an 'average' American can afford to spend $10,000 per year or $833 per month on a mortgage payment. Based on a 30 year mortgage, and depending on what shakes out as a sustainable long term interest rate, this translates into your 'average' American being able to afford a mortgage that falls somewhere between $120k and $150k.

    Thanks to recent creditworthiness regulations and more due diligence on the part of mortgage lenders to verify the incomes of would-be mortgage borrowers, this in turn means that people attempting to sell houses costing more than $120k - $150k are NOT going to have very many actual buyers. Sure there will be lots of 'average' Americans who would LIKE to buy, but they're not going to be given the financing to buy ! Thus the ONLY way that real estate values are going to start increasing again in the future is if the after tax earnings of 'average' Americans increases first. Arguably, current real estate prices still have a ways to fall before they 'equalize' with the ability of 'average' Americans to afford mortgage payments (without teasers and fraud).

    Based on the state of profitability of US businesses = likelihood of pay raises, based on the likelihood of income taxes being increased thus reducing after-tax income levels etc. I wouldn't be in a hurry to start snapping up real estate 'bargains' just yet. Yes, sure it's possible that there are a lot of 'niche' bargains out there that could be quickly resold, i.e. the $60k fixer-upper or the beach house now selling for a mere $2 million, but both of these 'niche' property examples involve large risk on the part of the real estate speculator. And real estate speculators themselves now suffer from the same lack of easy credit mortgage financing as 'average' Americans, meaning that much of their future speculations must now be self-financed. All in all, the 'crystal ball' says that there is, at the very least, another 3 quarters of real estate market declines yet to come !

    And if there is any truth to the above speculation that bank capital for new loans now has an increasing element of Sharia principles attached, future mortgage financing is going to be hard to obtain, strict and expensive compared to past years !

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks

    here we are a week later ... and you can say goodbye to DOW 11,500



    (snip)"June 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks tumbled, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst June since the Great Depression, as record oil prices, credit-market writedowns and a slowing economy threatened to extend a yearlong profit slump.

    General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, plunged the most in three years as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised selling the stock and crude rose by $5 a barrel. Citigroup Inc. led the KBW Bank Index to an almost 10-year low as Goldman said the lender may report an $8.9 billion second-quarter charge and cut its dividend. Research In Motion Ltd., maker of the BlackBerry, posted its biggest drop since 2001 on concern competition with Apple Inc.'s iPhone is reducing earnings.

    The Standard & Poor's 500 Index plunged 38.82, or 2.9 percent, to 1,283.15, its biggest drop in three weeks. The Dow decreased 358.41, or 3 percent, to 11,453.42, its lowest since September 2006. The Nasdaq Composite Index sank 79.89, or 3.3 percent, to 2,321.37, its worst loss since January. Almost nine stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

    ``Most investors are going to sit on the sidelines until they're more certain the sharks have left the waters and it's safe to go back in,'' said Bruce McCain, the Cleveland-based head of investment strategy at Key Private Bank, which oversees about $30 billion. ``The write-offs have been far worse than anyone would have imagined.''

    Nike Earnings

    All 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 retreated at least 1 percent as Nike Inc. said U.S. earnings dropped and Oracle Corp. predicted the slowest sales growth since 2006, adding to concern that consumers and businesses are cutting back as the economy expands at the weakest pace in five years.

    Earnings at companies in the S&P 500 slid 18 percent on average in the first quarter, the third straight retreat, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts project profits will drop 8.9 percent this quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey last week.

    The Dow has slumped 9.4 percent this month, its worst June since an 18 percent tumble in 1930 during the Great Depression. All 30 companies have posted losses in the month as oil surged, the unemployment rate jumped to the highest since 2004 and concern grew that global financial firms will add to $400 billion of subprime-related writedowns.

    The Dow's retreat today erased all the gains since mid- March that were spurred by JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s rescue of Bear Stearns Cos., a drop in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate to 2 percent and the central bank's new lending programs for securities firms.

    Citigroup, Merrill

    Citigroup dropped $1.18, or 6.3 percent, to $17.67 today, the lowest level since October 1998. Goldman added the biggest U.S. lender by assets to its ``conviction sell'' list and lowered its recommendation on U.S. brokerages to ``neutral'' from ``attractive,'' saying the pace of deterioration in the industry ``appears to be far worse than'' it originally anticipated.

    Merrill Lynch & Co., the third-largest U.S. securities firm, declined $2.41 to $33.05, a five-year low. Goldman analysts predicted the company will post a $3.55-a-share loss in 2008, compared with their previous estimate for an 8-cent profit.

    The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, a so-called exchange traded fund that tracks U.S. financial stocks, lost 3.6 percent to $20.90, the lowest since March 2003. The shares, known by their XLF ticker, were the fourth most-traded among stocks and ETFs in New York today. The KBW Bank Index of 24 companies dropped 3.9 percent to 60.20, the lowest since October 1998.

    `Ugly Day'

    ``It's another ugly day,'' said James Dunigan, the Philadelphia-based chief investment officer at PNC Advisors, which manages $70 billion. ``Until we get through another round of disclosures and through earnings season, the safest place is on the sidelines.''

    Research In Motion plunged $18.88, or 13 percent, to $123.46. Second-quarter earnings will be as low as 84 cents a share, the company said. That missed the average prediction by analysts of 92 cents, according to a Bloomberg survey. The report marked Research In Motion's first earnings disappointment in five quarters.

    Apple shares declined $9.13, or 5.2 percent, to $168.26, the lowest since April 23.

    GM fell $1.38, or 11 percent, to $11.43, the steepest slide since March 2005 and lowest price since 1974. Lear Corp., the second-largest maker of vehicle seats, lost $2.97, or 16 percent, to $15.15. Goldman downgraded both stocks to ``sell'' from ``neutral.''

    `Escalating Headwinds'

    ``We expect escalating headwinds from volume/mix pressures driven by gas prices, falling confidence and tightening credit,'' Goldman wrote in a research note.

    GM and Chrysler LLC may face a cash crunch next year as U.S. sales decline on a slowing economy and rising gasoline prices that push buyers toward more fuel-efficient vehicles, Fitch Ratings said yesterday.

    Chrysler spokesman Dave Elshoff said in an interview today that the company has no plans to file for bankruptcy, countering speculation in financial markets.

    Companies in the S&P 500 that rely on discretionary consumer spending lost 3.5 percent as a group after oil prices jumped to $139.64 a barrel on Libya's threat to cut production and OPEC's prediction that prices may reach $170 by the summer.

    Nike retreated $6.47, or 9.8 percent, to $59.50, the biggest drop since February 2001. The world's largest athletic- shoe maker said pretax income in the U.S. declined 10 percent to $390.7 million in the three months that ended May 31. U.S. orders through November were unchanged. "(snip)


    a few obvious observations ...

    rising energy prices are squeezing profits for a wide variety of US companies. When profits fall so do share prices. This also portends that these US companies are going to be passing on price increases soon (if not already in progress i.e. shrinking cereal boxes) in order to remain viable. Of course US companies that can't pass on price increases (like the big 3 automakers) will continue to pile up larger and larger losses.

    'California Style' businesses, from Starbucks to Nike to Apple to the LA Times, are suffering from some of the greatest reductions in sales. When the cost of 'necessities' like energy and food start to eat up the entire weekly budget of many working Americans, $4 lattes, $100 sneakers, $400 (glorified) cell phones and the locally offered non-essential services (formerly) advertised in the local newspaper quickly get 'cut' in favor of 50 cent McD's coffee, $20 Chinese sneakers, $29 prepaid cell phones, and mowing your own lawn / grooming your own pet / cleaning your own pool.

    The big banks and investment houses received yesterday's FED message that their goldmine du jour is starting to run out. In past months, FED cuts in the fed funds rate made the 'cost of capital' decline for these big banks, and by failing to reduce interest rates to consumers the big banks were able to pocket wider and wider profit margins on loans, credit cards etc. But yesterday's failure of the FED to again lower interest rates this month, along with statements that the FED may increase future fed funds interest rates to slow down disturbingly high inflation, sent a clear message that the big bank's 'stealth' bailout game will soon be over. Combined with yet more mysteries in regard to the true amount of loan losses that these big banks must write off in future quarters brought a new wave of fear based selling of big bank stock shares.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-26-2008 at 04:27 PM.

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks

    It's a buyer's market.

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks

    It's a buyer's market.
    Good luck with that, looks like crash and burn time for the US economy IMHO.

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks

    It's a buyer's market
    true ... if you can find any !

    of course, one if the big 'buyer' segments is funded by petrodollars i.e. the Middle Eastern Sovereign Wealth Funds and uber-rich Middle Eastern individuals. After having experienced significant losses on the declining fortunes (literally) of a certain huge US bank, and having continued to experience poor returns on US stocks, the last refuge for these petrodollars in the US economy was gov't bonds. As long as the FED was lowering interest rates, it was pretty much guaranteed that the price of gov't bonds would rise. However, the FED's de-facto change in course earlier this week, i.e. their failure to again cut the fed funds rate plus jawboning that rates may be increased in the future to slow inflation, now portends that US treasury bond prices are likely to decline. Petrodollars have been exiting US stocks for the past couple of months, and now petrodollars have started exiting US gov't bonds as well.



    (snip)"Financial shares have dropped as the credit crunch has deepened. The value of the U.S. dollar has fallen along with them.

    "Based on their earlier experience, sovereign wealth funds are going to be more hesitant," said Bill Belchere, regional economist at Macquarie Securities. "This would call for some diversification away from the U.S. dollar."

    Belchere said sovereign funds in the Middle East are expected to diversify more across Asia. Bankers in Hong Kong say funds have indeed been running a slide rule over potential deals in the natural resources and financial sectors in China."(snip)


    the 'tin foil hat' crowd would tell you that these events represent the 'death' of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency and/or 'safe haven' currency. From here on out, US stocks and bonds will be viewed as simply one possible place to invest money out of a whole world's worth of alternatives. And for the moment at least, the lack of corporate profits re US stock values, plus the change in US fed 'bias' towards raising interest rates re US gov't bond values, makes many of those alternatives look pretty attractive !

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks

    If this keeps up, we can say goodbye to the Dow 11,000 as well. Dropping by huge chunks per day.

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks

    not wanting to swing too far towards the political in Dollar Den, but for a fact there are some highly coincident correlations between stock market performance and actual / probable changes in gov't taxation and spending policies ... as well as gov't policies which affect the cost of doing business for US companies (and thus their profitability). Also please keep in mind that the US stock market is considered to be a 'leading indicator' i.e. pricing of stock shares generally reflects expected company performance looking 6 months into the future.


    (snip)"How destructive to the U.S. economy would a Barack Obama presidency be? There could be a very rough time ahead. Beneath Obama's flowery rhetoric lies a dangerous economic plan that will wreak havoc on the American economy. Obama plans to return to the failed policies of high taxation coupled with an expansion of government spending.

    Worse, Obama says he is absolutely committed to almost doubling the capital gains rate - something he will easily accomplish with a Democrat Congress. In the coming months - when investors realize that Obama will raise the cap gains rate - there could be a stampede of asset sales as investors rush to take their profits now to avoid Obama's doubling of the tax rates next year.

    by Wall Street Journal columnist John Fund.

    This wide-ranging report explores:

    How Obama's policies could cost more than $850 billion over four years
    How Barack "flunked" an easy question on capital gains
    Obama's misguided views on technology's future
    The dire repercussions of Obama's minimum wage proposal for small businesses and retail outlets
    Obama aides' private and very revealing admission about the candidate's economic savvy
    The "proof" that Obama will kowtow to organized labor
    Obama's Social Security plan: a giant income-redistribution scheme
    How the Democrat would undermine private sector healthcare
    Obama's tactics - old left-wing populist ploys
    How Obama's policies could boost some tax rates to 60 percent
    Obama's policies point by point on energy, healthcare, regulation, and the housing crisis
    Who would lose under Obama's tax proposals - and who would win
    The Democrat's contradictory statements on tax increases
    Why Obama's campaign against special interests would backfire
    Obama's plan to double America's foreign aid
    How Obama's trade policies would damage U.S. multinationals
    Obama's embarrassing denial regarding NAFTA
    The National Taxpayers Union's Obama rating: just 5 percent
    And much more

    Since voting in a Democratically controlled Congress in 2006 we have
    seen:

    1) Consumer confidence plummet;
    2) The cost of regular gasoline soar to over $4.00 a gallon;
    3) Unemployment is up to 5% (a 10% increase);
    4) American households have seen $2.3 trillion in equity value evaporate
    (stock and mutual fund losses);
    5) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $1.2 trillion dollars;
    6) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.

    America voted for "change" in 2006, and we got it!
    Remember it's Congress that makes the law, not the President. He has to work with what's handed to him. Bush ignored the Congress and the Congress for 8 years allowed it. Obama like Bush, in the media he tells them what they are allowed to say and they follow. See a trend? What ego's.

    Quote of the Day........"My friends, we live in the greatest nation in the history of the world. I hope you'll join with me as we try to change it" -- Barack Obama "(snip)

    from


    I'll be the first to admit that virtually every economic projection based on Obama's announced taxation and spending policies is speculatlve. However, the financial events which occurred in the aftermath of the 2006 election are factual and rather hard to ignore. Furthermore, the buying and selling of US stocks and bonds is often based on 'impressions' or 'momentum' or 'speculation' ... particularly so when those buying and selling are viewing the future US economy and future performance of US companies from a 'global' perspective.
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-27-2008 at 06:44 PM.

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    Default Re: say goodbye to DOW 12,000 ... (increasing Islamic influence on US markets / banks

    How will the government increase spending when the foreign creditors stop buying our Treasuries? Print print print and tax tax tax.

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