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Thread: another non-mainstream stock market indicator - the 'Puetz Window'

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    Default another non-mainstream stock market indicator - the 'Puetz Window'

    following in the footsteps of the Hindenberg Omen and the Bradley Model ...



    (snip)"If you believe that lunar or solar cycles have any effect on the stock market, you might want to pay attention to this column. If not, you might find this column a little ... spacey.
    Several years back, a cycle watcher named Steve Puetz attempted to see if eclipses and market crashes were somehow related. He studied eight of the greatest crashes in financial history, from the Holland Tulip Mania of 1637 to the Nikkei of 1990. He found that market crashes tend to occur near full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse. Puetz found that all eight crashes occurred six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of that being a coincidence, Puetz calculated, are less than 1 in 127,000.

    Puetz was not saying that so-called "Puetz windows" always lead to crashes, but that if a crash is going to occur, a Puetz window would be the likely time frame in which it would happen. Puetz windows tend to occur every year or two, while crashes are rare events.

    The interesting thing about this summer is that two Puetz windows will occur very close to one another, according to cycle watcher Heinz Blasnik. The first window is June 21-July 5, and the second is July 30-August 7. If a significant top is going to occur in the market this summer, those are the likely windows, Blasnik says.

    It is interesting to note that a Puetz window with a total lunar eclipse occurred from July 1-July 16 last year. July 17 turned out to be a major secondary top in the Nasdaq (4289), and the start of a sharp, 18% pullback in the index. However, the Nasdaq's relentless sell-off did not begin until the index marked a second, slightly lower top on September 1 at 4259. A second Puetz window, with a full moon that was not a lunar eclipse, occurred from July 31-August 15 last year.

    Another Puetz window (albeit two days longer than the required six-week interval between solar eclipse and full moon) occurred in August-October 1998, right before the plunge to the lows of the Asian crisis. Others in January and July 1999 coincided with relatively mild pullbacks (10%-15% on the Nasdaq)."(snip)

    and from another source at

    (snip)"Consider the following excerpt from Peter Eliades online "Current Observations":

    We seldom use much newsletter space for the ideas of others, but the theories we are about to present fit together so well, we believe you will find them as interesting as we do. The two researchers are Steve Puetz (pronounced "pits") and Chris Carolan. Chris just won the 1998 Charles H. Dow Award for his original research and the complete article is offered on his website at . The research by Puetz was first noted in our October 10, 1995 newsletter. Here is what we wrote:

    "Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."

    ". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."



    A total solar eclipse will take place on August 1st that will be followed by a lunar eclipse on August 16th [which also coincides with the date of the August full moon - sic]. Puetz highlights the likely crash window as being from six days before to three days after a full moon that occurs within six weeks before or after a solar eclipse, particularly if this full moon is a lunar eclipse."(snip)


    If there is any truth in the 'Puetz Window' theory, markets could get extremely ugly during the second half of August. However, technically, the July 18th full moon also meets the conditions for the opening of a 'Puetz Window', meaning that markets could get more ugly the week after next !!!

    It will be interesting to see how 'accurate' this non-mainstream indicator turns out to be over the next few weeks.

    (for the record, I have now sold out of every US stock, and the only two stocks I still own are foreign gold mining companies !)

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 07-12-2008 at 04:30 PM.

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    Default Re: another non-mainstream stock market indicator - the 'Puetz Window'

    Tea leaf reading If enough people believe in it though, they might trigger something by all selling now, I guess.
    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
    - Dr John Zoidberg

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    Default Re: another non-mainstream stock market indicator - the 'Puetz Window'

    well the stock market is often based on 'emotion' rather than cold hard financial fundamentals !!! Perhaps the full moon thing has some actual correlation to investor mood changes, as pointed out in the links.

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    Default Re: another non-mainstream stock market indicator - the 'Puetz Window'

    I could believe it. Mammal's blood runs faster during a full moon, everyone's heartrate is slightly higher than how it normaly is. Its a fact that during full moons there is a higher rate of accidents and car accidents.

    I'm not big on the 'astrology' aspect of the moon, but I believe the moon has great significance. The impact it has on planet earth is enormous, from what I can tell.

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    Default Re: another non-mainstream stock market indicator - the 'Puetz Window'

    Right now they are "killing" oil in order to prop up the markets. Terrible earnings MUST seem not as important as lower oil prices. However, it remains to be seen if the traders believe this is the bottom...

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    Default Re: another non-mainstream stock market indicator - the 'Puetz Window'

    they are trying to 'kill' gold and silver as well, but apparently having a tough time of it ! The base metals smell the naked shorts, too, and are actually UP instead of down ! I agree with your assessment of course that the COMEX shorts on oil and gas, on precious metals etc. are intended to 'pursuade' hot money out of commodities and back into the US stock market.

    As to rotten earnings reports, a whole bunch hit the ticker today (like Apple, Wachovia etc.) and a whole bunch more are due later this week. At some point investors buying US stocks on 'faith' ... in the face of declining earnings and reduced future earnings estimates ... will come to an end. Unless of course it is the FED that is directly buying shares with taxpayer money, or doing the same with the added 'stealth' layer of the primary dealer banks !!!

    As I said originally, I don't really see any logical basis for the Puetz Window theory ... but the historical accuracy is undeniable. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens during the next such window July 30th through August 7th.

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    Post Foreign kidnapper tried in Shanghai court

    SHANGHAI: South Korean man Kim Soo Seok, 44, faced a trial Tuesday at the Shanghai No 1 Intermediate People's Court for kidnapping, together with his two Chinese accessories Jin Mingyu and Chi Minhao who were charged with illegal detention.This is the first kidnapping case involving a foreigner in Shanghai.Kim was accused of plotting to kidnap another South Korean man and demanding a ransom of 300 million won ($295,000), the court was told Tuesday.On December 24, under the order of the second defendant Jin Mingyu, Chi Minhao, a 29-year-old Korean minority from Jilin province, contacted Jean Moon Gyun, a 23-year-old South Korean studying at the Shanghai University of Sport.Chi told Jean that a friend of his father's was visiting Shanghai and wanted to meet him, the prosecutor said.Jean's father, Jean Sam Duck, is the president of a taekwondo association in Gyeongsangnam-do, a province in the southeast of South Korea, and owns several properties, Kim's attorney Yin Yongyu told China Daily. Jean Sam Duck also has a fast food business, Kim told the court.Jean Moon Gyun arrived at a coffee house in the city's suburban Minhang district that evening and met Chi, and was later taken to an apartment nearby.He was detained by force until being released by police on the afternoon of December 26."I have never attempted to insult him or hurt him physically," Chi told the court.During the three days, Kim called Jean's parents back in South Korea and told them he had their son and wanted 300 million won.The parents called the Shanghai police. And the gang was seized.Kim pleaded guilty at the court Tuesday but explained he had wanted to claim a debt for a friend.Kim said his friend Kim Sang Kyu owed him 15 million won."He borrowed the money 10 years ago," he said.Kim said he was in a very bad financial condition since last year and needed the money."Kim Sang Kyu told me that he knew a friend who had loaned Jean Sam Duck 300 million won," he said."If I could claim it back, I could have half of it, and he told me Jean has a son studying in Shanghai."Kim Soo Seok came to Shanghai in November and began to prepare the kidnapping around December 20.He told Jin Mingyu, whom he worked with at Kim Sang Kyu's Shanghai company, and Chi Minhao that he would give them 200,000 yuan each if they could get back the 300 million won.But Jean Sam Duck said Tuesday he had never owed anyone 300 million won. In stead, Kim, who get to know him by attending some taekwondo activities, had asked to borrow 15 million won from him in last June but was refused.No verdict has been announced yet

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