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Thread: International assessment of US economy under GWB

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    Default International assessment of US economy under GWB

    I'll post in this forum since there are obviously political overtones ...


    (snip)"Source:
    Bush Has a Good Economic Record
    KEITH MARSDEN
    WSJ, September 3, 2008; Page A23




    Successive speakers at the Democratic National Convention poured scorn on President Bush's economic record. The clear aim was to justify the party's call for "change," and to undermine support for Republican presidential nominee John McCain. His election would mean a "third Bush term," delegates groaned.

    Yet Democrats cited no good evidence for their claims that the administration has produced a stagnant economy, widening disparities of income and wealth, high unemployment, and a heavy burden of government debt (supposedly resulting from an unwise military intervention in Iraq).

    How does the performance of the U.S. economy really compare with other advanced economies over the eight years of George Bush's presidency? Data published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Bank, the International Comparison Program (ICP) (a cooperative venture coordinated by the World Bank) and the U.S. Census Bureau allow a nonpartisan, factual assessment. Here are some of the findings:

    - Economic growth. U.S. output has expanded faster than in most advanced economies since 2000. The IMF reports that real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average annual rate of 2.2% over the period 2001-2008 (including its forecast for the current year). President Bush will leave to his successor an economy 19% larger than the one he inherited from President Clinton. This U.S. expansion compares with 14% by France, 13% by Japan and just 8% by Italy and Germany over the same period.

    The latest ICP findings, published by the World Bank in its World Development Indicators 2008, also show that GDP per capita in the U.S. reached $41,813 (in purchasing power parity dollars) in 2005. This was a third higher than the United Kingdom's, 37% above Germany's and 38% more than Japan's.

    - Household consumption. The ICP study found that the average per-capita consumption of the U.S. population (citizens and illegal immigrants combined) was second only to Luxembourg's, out of 146 countries covered in 2005. The U.S. average was $32,045. This was well above the levels in the UK ($25,155), Canada ($23,526), France ($23,027) and Germany ($21,742). China stood at $1,751.

    - Health services. The U.S. spends easily the highest amount per capita ($6,657 in 2005) on health, more than double that in Britain. But because of private funding (55% of the total) the burden on the U.S. taxpayer (9.1% of GDP) is kept to similar levels as France and Germany. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that 84.7% of the U.S. population was covered by health insurance in 2007, an increase of 3.6 million people over 2006. The uninsured can receive treatment in hospitals at the expense of private insurance holders.

    While life expectancy is influenced by lifestyles and not just access to health services, the World Bank nevertheless reports that average life expectancy in the U.S. rose to 78 years in 2006 (the same as Germany's), from 77 in 2000.

    - Income and wealth distribution. The latest World Bank estimates show that the richest 20% of U.S. households had a 45.8% share of total income in 2000, similar to the levels in the U.K. (44.0%) and Israel (44.9%). In 65 other countries the richest quintile had a larger share than in the U.S.

    Investment has been buoyant under President Bush. According to the ICP, outlays on additions to the fixed assets (machinery and buildings, etc.) of the U.S. economy amounted to $8,018 per capita in 2005 compared to $4,963 in Germany and $4,937 in the U.K. Higher taxes on the upper-income Americans, as proposed by Mr. Obama, are likely to result in lower saving and investment, less entrepreneurial activity and reduced availability of bank credit. Lower-income Americans would be among the losers.

    When considering the distribution of income and wealth in the U.S., another factor that should be taken into account is the sharp rise in the number of immigrants. The stock of international migrants (those born in other countries) in the U.S. grew by nearly 10 million from 1995 to 2005, reaching a total of 38.5 million according to the World Bank.

    The inflow of migrants may have restrained the growth of average income levels in the bottom quintiles. Nevertheless, their earnings still allowed immigrants to remit $42 billion to their families abroad in 2006, double the level in 1995. So the benefits are widely spread among the families of immigrants remaining abroad -- an important U.S. contribution to the reduction of poverty in these countries.

    - Employment. The U.S. employment rate, measured by the percentage of people of working age (16-65 years) in jobs, has remained high by international standards. The latest OECD figures show a rate of 71.7% in 2006. This was more than five percentage points above the average for the euro area.

    The U.S. unemployment rate averaged 4.7% from 2001-2007. This compares with a 5.2% average rate during President Clinton's term of office, and is well below the euro zone average of 8.3% since 2000.

    - Debt interest payments. The IMF reports that the interest cost of servicing general government debt in the U.S. has averaged 2.0% of GDP annually from 2001-2008, compared with 2.7% in the euro zone. It averaged 3.2% annually when President Clinton was in office.

    The cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has been largely absorbed in a relatively small increase in the defense budget (to 4.1% of GDP in 2006 from 3.8% in 1995). A much higher proportion of U.S. income was devoted to the military during World War II and the Korean War.

    The evidence shows that much of the Democratic Party's criticism of President Bush's economic record is wide of the mark. True, the economic slowdown now affecting most advanced countries will likely result in rising unemployment over the coming months. But thanks to sensible policies pursued by the Bush administration (not always with adequate support from a Democratic-controlled Congress), the U.S. economy is sufficiently flexible to keep unemployment below the 7.7% peak reached in the last postrecession year of 1992.

    The main risk is that, if elected, Barack Obama will pursue a "social justice" strategy. This would encompass higher taxes on entrepreneurs, savers and investors, more direct government intervention in the economy, and protectionist policies (including revoking existing trade agreements) aimed at safeguarding the jobs of his union backers in "old" industries and public services. If so, the pain is likely to be more widespread and prolonged."(snip)

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    I guess we can just gloss over that pesky recession can't we? Or the high inflation rate? And the shaky stock market? And the weak dollar? And that whole credit mess? And high energy costs? Damn whiners.
    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    The U.S. unemployment rate averaged 4.7% from 2001-2007. This compares with a 5.2% average rate during President Clinton's term of office, and is well below the euro zone average of 8.3% since 2000.
    Excellent example of using statistics to mislead BTW. Why are they using an average rate for Clinton? Check the chart below, it shows the unemployment rate, which part of the chart is more impressive, the 1992-2000 part or the 2000-2008 part?

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    well, according to your theory/arguments Mel, its usually either the prior president or congress that makes the changes.

    So the first half of that time period would be due to clinton, the other half would be due to the democratic controlled congress....


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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    I'll be the first to admit that lots of things are going wrong with the US economy. In fact the Dollar Den is full of such observations. The reason I posted this story because of its content based on foreign / international analysis, which in theory is less prone to political tinkering than 'official' US gov't agency data such as your 'official' unemployment rate. I found the 71.7% EMployment rate (of all Americans between the ages of 18 and 65) to be a more meaningful statistic.

    But I found the comparisons to other western economies even more useful, since these reflect the same cyclic ups and downs that affect all countries' economies. By a wide range of measures, the US under GWB has done better than other countries. The WSJ author then draws the conclusion that this is due to the fact that other countries in the comparisons have implemented socialist economic policies to a greater degree than America has.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    Figures lie and liars figure.
    No one spends GDP. When you are forced into bankruptcy or loose your house, or you stock portfolio plunges because of poor corporate stewardship, it doesn't matter how we as a nation compare to some other country.

    All politics is individual and personal.

    The responsibility of government is to make sure the playing field is level for all parties. It is not the responsibility of government to cede its mandate to corporations or hope that greed levels the playing field.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    You know, I'm doing fine. But I look around and see rampant foreclosures and people struggling. Assistance for school lunches has gone up in one blue-collar neighborhood here from 25% to 90%. I'm not doing statistics. I'm just looking around, and it's not good.

    We spend a lot of time in Member Boards arguing that white is black and black is white.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay Zeno View Post
    You know, I'm doing fine. But I look around and see rampant foreclosures and people struggling. Assistance for school lunches has gone up in one blue-collar neighborhood here from 25% to 90%. I'm not doing statistics. I'm just looking around, and it's not good.

    We spend a lot of time in Member Boards arguing that white is black and black is white.
    Part of it depends WHERE in the U.S. you are. Texas is booming. NYC is stable.
    L.A.; Vegas and South Forida have been clobbered by the burst of the housing bubble.

    For the past couple of years, MY income has been flat BUT my expenses keep going up- gasoline; utilities; groceries and state and local taxes have all gone up.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    The economy is not great right now, but I do beleive these stats do show one thing, Bush did a better job with the economy than people give him credit for. PEOPLE fucked up the housing market, borrowing 3 times what they should have, that wasn't the governments fault.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    Well, duh! Of course foreign perception of the US economy is good. We are dumping our wealth on places like China, Pakistan, India and Central America.

    GMAC announced yesterday that they are closing down all of their mortgage retail locations and going 100% phone and internet for sales and service of their mortgage products. I wonder how many of the people on the other end of the process will be American citizens?

    GMAC last spring closed down all of the US call centers that serviced auto loans and leases, laying off thousands of American workers and moved opperations to Pakistan. I guess that is working out very well, and now they are moving their mortgage service out of country as well.


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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    ^^^ well, the outsourcing by GMAC and countless other US companies circles right back to the WSJ author's conclusion about socialist economic policies. The higher that US payroll taxes are raised, the higher the minimum wage is raised, the higher that Social Security taxes are raised, the higher the mandated costs of unemployment insurance and workmen's comp is raised, etc. the more financial incentive it provides for US companies to outsource their 'low skill' work to other countries that haven't implemented similar socialist economic policies / costs.

    I would also add that much of the 'subprime real estate' problem is also the outgrowth of a socialist government policy - specifically the Clinton administration HUD mandate to the GSE's and local lenders that 'low income' home ownership must be increased ... even if it meant disregarding common sense creditworthiness evaluations. And similar socialist government policies in regard to 'low income' home ownership are STILL being promoted by state politicians ...



    fortunately for federal taxpayers, Freddie Mac told NY governor Patterson 'no dice'.

    (snip)"Paul Jackson at Housing Wire reports:


    "Freddie Mac said the state's new definition of subprime, and the pending regulations tied to them, "creates the potential for heightened legal and business risk exposures for the purchasers or assignees of these loans." Spokesperson Brad German told Bloomberg News the legislation in New York holds lenders liable "in ways we have no way of monitoring and preventing."

    Of course, this is creating an uproar over those who wish to suspend market processes by expanding homeownership without expanding default and exposure risk. But Housing Wire's sources suggest that numerous states and localities may wind up regulating themselves into a deeper housing mess by forcing lenders to exit rather than face ever-more burdensome risk in exchange for lower returns."(snip)

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    The fucked up economy has actually been good for my family and myself. We were able to rent a really nice house because the owners can't sell it. We can buy a minivan for cheap because no one's buying. When we are ready to buy a house, we can afford what ever we want because the housing market is in the toilet and people are selling their houses for dirt cheap. My husband landed a job that pays well in an industry that is pretty recession proof (food and beverage) with the top company in the industry and I'm working from home because gas prices and other economic factors have brink and mortar places turning to telecommuting so we save hundred of dollars a month in childcare. I does help that we moved form the north to the south though.

    I guess it's not all bad for all people.
    "A stupid man's report of what a clever man says is never accurate because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand." - Bertrand Russell

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    Ya'll bitches need to calm down. Cerously.
    In other words: Boo-motherfucking-hoo

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    Jay Zeno
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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    I'm sure Pres. Bush's high approval ratings are reflective of how exuberantly the public sees that the economy is performing.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    ^^^ arguably GWB's approval ratings have as much to do with mainstream media editorial / story selection policy than with actual performance. But that's beside the point ... (he went to zero on my personal approval rating after instituting a new Social Welfare program i.e. Prescription Drugs for seniors).

    It does help that we moved form the north to the south though.
    and what are the main differences between northern states and southern states ? Arguably the degree to which state gov'ts have implemented socialist economic policies, with resulting high taxes and ponderous regulations.

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    Jay Zeno
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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    Arguably, the world is flat. If people feel good about the way things are going for them, they're not going to care about media policy. They're not feeling very good right now. Pres. Clinton was right about something: It's about the economy.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    Pres. Clinton was right about something: It's about the economy.
    Indeed it is ! However, while perhaps 3% of Americans are flirting with bankruptcy / foreclosure, and with perhaps 5% of Americans dealing directly with employer outsourcing or downsizing, 100% of Americans are dealing with 'shock and awe' at the gas pump and in their utility bills. This fact plays directly into McCain's choice of Palin ... in an attempt to raise the issue of high gasoline / energy prices to the very top of the presidential issues pile, with Palin's 'drill now' policies promising a swift reduction in gasoline / utility bill prices versus Obama's 'carbon tax' policies promising to further increase gasoline / utility bill prices.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    I know you are replying to my post, but I don't understand what you are getting at. Are you implying that international businesses favor socialistic business practices because it benefits them by drawing money to less socialistic regions?

    I dunno, Melonie, your reply is all over the place talking about the sub-prime problem, outsourcing of labor, government regulation of markets, but didn't really say anything.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ well, the outsourcing by GMAC and countless other US companies circles right back to the WSJ author's conclusion about socialist economic policies. The higher that US payroll taxes are raised, the higher the minimum wage is raised, the higher that Social Security taxes are raised, the higher the mandated costs of unemployment insurance and workmen's comp is raised, etc. the more financial incentive it provides for US companies to outsource their 'low skill' work to other countries that haven't implemented similar socialist economic policies / costs.

    I would also add that much of the 'subprime real estate' problem is also the outgrowth of a socialist government policy - specifically the Clinton administration HUD mandate to the GSE's and local lenders that 'low income' home ownership must be increased ... even if it meant disregarding common sense creditworthiness evaluations. And similar socialist government policies in regard to 'low income' home ownership are STILL being promoted by state politicians ...

    http://www.dealbreaker.com/2008/08/f...new_york_s.php

    fortunately for federal taxpayers, Freddie Mac told NY governor Patterson 'no dice'.

    (snip)"Paul Jackson at Housing Wire reports:


    "Freddie Mac said the state's new definition of subprime, and the pending regulations tied to them, "creates the potential for heightened legal and business risk exposures for the purchasers or assignees of these loans." Spokesperson Brad German told Bloomberg News the legislation in New York holds lenders liable "in ways we have no way of monitoring and preventing."

    Of course, this is creating an uproar over those who wish to suspend market processes by expanding homeownership without expanding default and exposure risk. But Housing Wire's sources suggest that numerous states and localities may wind up regulating themselves into a deeper housing mess by forcing lenders to exit rather than face ever-more burdensome risk in exchange for lower returns."(snip)


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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    ^^^ what I'm getting at is that high US federal taxes and expensive US gov't mandates on employers, as well as high state taxes and state gov't mandates in certain states are the result of socialist economic policies ... i.e. redistribution of wealth. I am pointing out the fact that, when subjected to these high taxes and expensive mandates, US companies are increasingly opting to outsource their 'low skill' work to other countries that don't have similarly expensive tax rates or gov't mandates.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    There should seriously be something similar to Godwin's Law for the whole socialism/communist comparison when discussing republican vs. democratic stuff.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    and there should be an exemption to Godwin's Law when real life Fascist / Storm Trooper activities are involved i.e. the Russians in Georgia ...

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    and there should be an exemption to Godwin's Law when real life Fascist / Storm Trooper activities are involved i.e. the Russians in Georgia ...
    or america in iraq, invading a sovereign country....

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ what I'm getting at is that high US federal taxes and expensive US gov't mandates on employers, as well as high state taxes and state gov't mandates in certain states are the result of socialist economic policies ... i.e. redistribution of wealth. I am pointing out the fact that, when subjected to these high taxes and expensive mandates, US companies are increasingly opting to outsource their 'low skill' work to other countries that don't have similarly expensive tax rates or gov't mandates.
    But, US taxes on corporations have gone down over the last 30 years. There's NAFTA and CAFTA making trade easy for corporations. Unions have been disappearing from the labor landscape, with only 8% of all US workers employed by unions and the vast majority of those are teachers and nurses, not unskilled laborers. The minimum wage is lower in real buying power dollars than it was in 1955.

    Realistically, we cannot compete with overseas labor. I don't care how much we lower our standards, no one is going to work hard all day long in a call center for $1 an hour in the US. Your suggestions are ridiculous.

    The US economy is going through a huge change right now. We need to prepare our workers with proper education to move away from a manufacturing society and into one that is about scientific product development and engineering. Just like at the turn of the 20th century we made secondary education mandatory to fulfill the requirements of industrial manufacturing, we need to make the same leap now to fulfill the needs of corporations like Google or develop new products in the medical fields. A high school education alone ain't gonna cut it in the new economy. We need to get our workers up to speed to remain competitive in this global economy.

    The (global trade) genie is out of the bottle. Now it is time to address and deal with that fact.


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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    Interesting, the jobless rate shot up to a five year high, up to 6.1%. Time for another tax cut for those at the top I guess.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    Quote Originally Posted by Paris View Post
    But, US taxes on corporations have gone down over the last 30 years. There's NAFTA and CAFTA making trade easy for corporations. Unions have been disappearing from the labor landscape, with only 8% of all US workers employed by unions and the vast majority of those are teachers and nurses, not unskilled laborers. The minimum wage is lower in real buying power dollars than it was in 1955.

    Realistically, we cannot compete with overseas labor. I don't care how much we lower our standards, no one is going to work hard all day long in a call center for $1 an hour in the US. Your suggestions are ridiculous.

    The US economy is going through a huge change right now. We need to prepare our workers with proper education to move away from a manufacturing society and into one that is about scientific product development and engineering. Just like at the turn of the 20th century we made secondary education mandatory to fulfill the requirements of industrial manufacturing, we need to make the same leap now to fulfill the needs of corporations like Google or develop new products in the medical fields. A high school education alone ain't gonna cut it in the new economy. We need to get our workers up to speed to remain competitive in this global economy.

    The (global trade) genie is out of the bottle. Now it is time to address and deal with that fact.
    Actually you're mistaken. The two countries with the highest corporate taxes are the U.S. and Japan. And that's just taxes. Add in the costs of providing health care and the costs of complying with State & Federal rules and regs. and litigation costs and many U.S. Corporations are NOT competitive with many of their foreign
    competitors.

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    Quote Originally Posted by Richard_Head View Post
    Interesting, the jobless rate shot up to a five year high, up to 6.1%. Time for another tax cut for those at the top I guess.
    Correct. While the economy does not the classical definition of recession ( 2 consecutive quarters of negative econmic growth ) it's fair to say that we are in a period of stagflation. Sooner or later, the piper always has to be paid.

    LBJ's deficits, run up to finance BOTH Vietnam and The Great Socirty were paid for
    during the Nixon, Ford and Carter years.

    Reagan's deficits were paid for by G.H.W. Bush and during Clinton's first term.

    Clinton's dot-com bubble; "irrational exuberance" and Enron fiascos were paid for by G.W. And of course G.W. is running two wars ( one was obviously not enough) plus NCLB and a Medicare Drug Benefit. Add in underregulation of the Financial sector and the failings of Greenspan and Bernanke plus excessive demands on commodities like grain, metals and oil and you've got a recipe for STAGFLATION.

    Tax cuts will not help in the long run unless there are serious and substantial
    reductions in government SPENDING coupled with proper regulation. For instance, any bank or corporation accepting a Government bailout should have the salaries of its executives limited to that of a G.S.18 ( the highest paid Federal Civil Servant-
    which is around $150,000 a year. )

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    Default Re: International assessment of US economy under GWB

    For instance, any bank or corporation accepting a Government bailout should have the salaries of its executives limited to that of a G.S.18 ( the highest paid Federal Civil Servant- which is around $150,000 a year. )
    that's a wonderful idea if the US corporations still operated in a US-centric world ... but they don't. Such a salary cap would simply encourage US corporations to become EX US corporations, and as a result encourage US employees of those US corporations to become EX employees ! Personally I say forget the taxpayer funded bailouts altogether and let the chips fall where they may. Of course, this would cause the (arguably Democratic) fat cat hedge fund investor group to lose money !

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