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Thread: 6% convention bounce

  1. #1
    God/dess kitana's Avatar
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    Default 6% convention bounce

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/110110/Ga...oint-Lead.aspx

    Apparently the GOP convention this past week didn't crash and burn as bad as some would have liked it to.

    McCain went from 43% to 49% and Obama went from 48% to 44%.

    This should be a VERY interesting next few weeks.....
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    Featured Member minnow's Avatar
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    Default Re: 6% convention bounce

    I look towards the "November End Game", seeing poll watching as an NBA game(no lead is secure). Furthermore, realizing that the winner may not be the 1 who shoots the most baskets(popular vote), but may well be the 1 who makes certain key baskets, 1 inch behind the 3-point line. (electoral votes).

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    God/dess kitana's Avatar
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    Default Re: 6% convention bounce

    Quote Originally Posted by minnow View Post
    I look towards the "November End Game", seeing poll watching as an NBA game(no lead is secure). Furthermore, realizing that the winner may not be the 1 who shoots the most baskets(popular vote), but may well be the 1 who makes certain key baskets, 1 inch behind the 3-point line. (electoral votes).
    Of course, I agree!

    But I was very surprised that McCain jumped 6% in a weekend, since Obama has pretty much been in the lead the majority of the summer.
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    Veteran Member Zia_Abq's Avatar
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    Default Re: 6% convention bounce

    “History shows that a 5-point convention bounce has been typical, no matter the particulars of the convention in terms of political party and incumbency/convention order.”

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    Default Re: 6% convention bounce

    The thing is, is McCain getting that support in states where he's going to need it? What good is a polling bump in a state that he's likely to take anyway?

    I also wonder if the hyperbolic criticism that the liberal media heaped on Palin hasn't irked a few undecided folks.
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    Veteran Member Zia_Abq's Avatar
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    Default Re: 6% convention bounce

    Quote Originally Posted by doc-catfish View Post
    The thing is, is McCain getting that support in states where he's going to need it? What good is a polling bump in a state that he's likely to take anyway?
    Good point. For better or worse it is the electoral votes that really matter in the end. As of now they are in Obama's favor.

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    Default Re: 6% convention bounce

    Quote Originally Posted by doc-catfish View Post
    I also wonder if the hyperbolic criticism that the liberal media heaped on Palin hasn't irked a few undecided folks.
    I think this is a big part of it. The Dems are just making her a sympathetic figure with the unabated vitriol. And insulting those who identify with her isn't a good idea. Obama needs to remember he's running against McCain not her. Stop bringing up her name in every interview.
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