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Thread: The monday morning circus

  1. #26
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    Xan:" Americans are incredibly smart".

    I am NOT saying some of them are not smart, but many of them have no clue about what's going and, and even worse they don't care to learn. Misinformation of the general public in this country is out of control.

    This incredible ignorance is what worries me the most. People who cannot think logically are easiest to manipulate...

  2. #27
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    The Dow isn't even out of the gate and it's over a hundred points down. This entire thing has me busting my ass at work because you never know what will happen.

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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    Quote Originally Posted by Adelina View Post
    Xan:" Americans are incredibly smart".

    I am NOT saying some of them are not smart, but many of them have no clue about what's going and, and even worse they don't care to learn. Misinformation of the general public in this country is out of control.

    This incredible ignorance is what worries me the most. People who cannot think logically are easiest to manipulate...
    Actually, Finance/Geography knowledge (Trivias) are over-rated and is no better than knowing whether Britney Spears is pregnant or not. The average Joe needn't know such useless knowledge. In Finance you can actually gain '-'ve Knowledge (by reading shady web-sites) and make stupid mistakes all the time, like hoarding commodities, trying to time the market and stuff like that.

    An Average Joe is better off by focusing on his family and Job and stay in the top 50%ile of his industry. The best investing method is still Dollar Cost Averaging into an Index fund.

    Half Knowledge or even 99% knowledge is more dangerous than no knowledge. People who think they know the market wasted their time watching CNBC for the last two days. To what avail? Nothing. To find out that Dow Jones is still higher than it was in July 2008? So, what?

    You always hear how people pulled out of stock market at the right time and all such crap. Well such people also miss the upward swing. Research have proven that such market timers perform worse than the Dollar Cost Indexers.

  4. #29
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    Quote Originally Posted by StrawberrySwitchblade View Post
    The Dow isn't even out of the gate and it's over a hundred points down. This entire thing has me busting my ass at work because you never know what will happen.
    Bingo! The best strategy is led when you actually not know all these useless trivia. All these 'finance' people wasted their time by watching CNBC and probably made bone-headed financial decisions

    Investing needs only 15 minutes of your time every year.
    Use the remaining time by being in the top 50%ile of your industry and spending time with family/friends. It is a thousand times better than knowing useless stuff.

    Nobody can predict market prices. Whether Silver at $50, Gold at $2000, Oil at $200, or Dow at 36000.

  5. #30
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    ^^^ Seems like there are plenty of people who had some ideas and warnings long before this blow up showed it's head. I guess they are dumbasses. I guess you can do is average and don't even bother with the idea of exploring financial relationships. That's all wizardly stuff and make believe. Nah. All you need to know is one basic technique in Fin 101 and that Fin 400+ stuff is just garbage and fairy tales.

    With the advice you give, it kinda makes me wonder if you do a lot of shorting. "Keep on putting that money in there girls!"

  6. #31
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    Latest craziness is that the Fed will end up bailing out AIG the money to avoid a serious collapse to the tune of 85 freakin' billion dollars at an 80% stake.
    I understand that without this the problems might well buckle some global markets if they do not but I am truly in shock...

    The young man down the road is an insurance adjuster who made 3.7 MILLION dollars in one year working for AIG after Katrina.I can only imagine what the company made during that time.Also how much AIG has fed the politicians and Congress in recent years.
    I also understand "how" they lost value so damn quickly but I am truly beginning to despair at the rapid and unprecedented socialistic manuverings going on.

    Can someone 'splain this phenom in more detail?Not the "why" of the bailout but what might possibly happen henceforth.
    Isn't the Fed in essence making new rules by bailing out a private concern whose execs made really bad decisions?
    Where will it end?This is so screwed to me.

    I have watched my rather conservative portfolio (based on pretty much on the "model" at Vanguard for my investments and also on dollar-cost averaging)decline to the tune of @ 100k since last year at this time and am about ready to smack someone....HARD!!!

    Are we as investors/taxpayers really as f-ed over as I'm feeling currently?

    I have always thought that "things will turn around" but now I'm seeing sooooo much un-charted territory I am just worn out trying to figure all this out.
    Last edited by retiredangel; 09-16-2008 at 06:07 PM. Reason: addition

  7. #32
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    it's consolidation of power in one hands, that's what they want.

  8. #33
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus


  9. #34
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    Quote Originally Posted by Deogol View Post
    ^^^ Seems like there are plenty of people who had some ideas and warnings long before this blow up showed it's head. I guess they are dumbasses. I guess you can do is average and don't even bother with the idea of exploring financial relationships. That's all wizardly stuff and make believe. Nah. All you need to know is one basic technique in Fin 101 and that Fin 400+ stuff is just garbage and fairy tales.

    With the advice you give, it kinda makes me wonder if you do a lot of shorting. "Keep on putting that money in there girls!"
    Exploring financial relationship!!! Ha spoken like a true novice.

    Are you talking about clueless idiots reading shady web-sites and coming up with this conclusion?

    * Looking at the M3 supply and concluding we will have hyper-inflation in 6 months
    * People and India and China are going to eat all the food and leave nothing to the Americans
    * Indians and Chinese will use all the gas and will leave nothing to US
    * US$ will crash and burn and people will run to other currencies
    * Rest of the world is fully decoupled and leave the US in the dust
    * Gold and Silver ratio should be 1:50

    or are you talking about clueless idiots reading charts with Moving Day averages, RSI, Elliot Wave and Fibonacci?

    Plenty of people have lot of ideas, but when it comes to actual returns they suck

    You can read finance journals (which needs more than one brain cells and basic statistics like correlation, hypothesis testing, something your brain probably can't handle) and read the research including the research on returns of the finest of money managers
    Conclusion: Monkey throwing darts are better at timing and picking assets

    There are only a handful of great investors
    i) Warren Buffett
    ii) Harvard Management Guy
    iii) Peter Lynch (Although he quit while he was ahead before the averages caught up to tom. So, the jury is still out there on him)

    FYI: None of the three even look at a price chart. Technical analysis is for the biggest idiots

    Also, None of the shady web-sites post their actual returns.
    But here is one who proclaim to know Finance 500+ and have also posted their returns
    http://www.prudentbearfunds.com/inde...ance&Itemid=29

    For 13 years, they have actually lost money and also charge you 0.5%. i.e they don't even match money market but charge you money. Perfect for clueless idiots like you

  10. #35
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    Quote Originally Posted by retiredangel View Post
    Latest craziness is that the Fed will end up bailing out AIG the money to avoid a serious collapse to the tune of 85 freakin' billion dollars at an 80% stake.
    I understand that without this the problems might well buckle some global markets if they do not but I am truly in shock...

    The young man down the road is an insurance adjuster who made 3.7 MILLION dollars in one year working for AIG after Katrina.I can only imagine what the company made during that time.Also how much AIG has fed the politicians and Congress in recent years.
    I also understand "how" they lost value so damn quickly but I am truly beginning to despair at the rapid and unprecedented socialistic manuverings going on.

    Can someone 'splain this phenom in more detail?Not the "why" of the bailout but what might possibly happen henceforth.
    Isn't the Fed in essence making new rules by bailing out a private concern whose execs made really bad decisions?
    Where will it end?This is so screwed to me.

    I have watched my rather conservative portfolio (based on pretty much on the "model" at Vanguard for my investments and also on dollar-cost averaging)decline to the tune of @ 100k since last year at this time and am about ready to smack someone....HARD!!!

    Are we as investors/taxpayers really as f-ed over as I'm feeling currently?

    I have always thought that "things will turn around" but now I'm seeing sooooo much un-charted territory I am just worn out trying to figure all this out.
    If you are earning 15000 Billions a year, 85 Billion is a little more than a parking ticket and hopefully a one time event. However, US govt, got the greatest deal in this investment. 8.5%+LIBOR? That is freaking amazing and if AIG turns around, they pocket 80% of all the profit

    Essentially they can take the next 50 years of AIG earnings and make a killing on this deal.

    No way this is a Bail out unless you hate everything the govt do.
    War on Iraq==> Biggest waste of money
    Buying AIG/Fannie/Freddie for peanuts ==> Not so bad

  11. #36
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    Xan, listen to what the Chinese are saying:

    "The world urgently needs to create a diversified currency and financial system and fair and just financial order that is not dependent on the United States."

    http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080916/finan...cus-retirement

    do you think they are just kidding?

  12. #37
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    Quote Originally Posted by Adelina View Post
    Xan, listen to what the Chinese are saying:

    "The world urgently needs to create a diversified currency and financial system and fair and just financial order that is not dependent on the United States."

    http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080916/finan...cus-retirement

    do you think they are just kidding?
    And I want a Billion Dollars and I'm not kidding too.

    Now, US has to respond to some foreign country's tabloid?

  13. #38
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    Yes, US HAS TO respond to what its CREDITORS say.

  14. #39
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    Quote Originally Posted by Adelina View Post
    Xan, listen to what the Chinese are saying:

    "The world urgently needs to create a diversified currency and financial system and fair and just financial order that is not dependent on the United States."

    http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080916/finan...cus-retirement

    do you think they are just kidding?
    With China's massive USD long position (via the US paying China in IOUs for the last decade or two), they would want to manage statements like this very carefully. If the USD collapses, lots of countries will lose a lot of money.
    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
    - Dr John Zoidberg

  15. #40
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    Quote Originally Posted by Adelina View Post
    Yes, US HAS TO respond to what its CREDITORS say.
    No, every debt issuer's only obligation is to pay the interest on the date.

    They are not entitled to Blow Jobs, Pedicures or Toe sucking.

  16. #41
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    Default Re: The monday morning circus

    No, every debt issuer's only obligation is to pay the interest on the date.
    which is true on the surface. However, in reality, any debt issuer who needs to keep issuing more and more debt at 'manageable' interest rates also needs willing buyers for that debt ... which amounts to about 3 billion dollars of additional debt per DAY between the US gov't and US private sector. These days, there are DAMN few willing buyers who also have money available to lend ... essentially the Chinese, the Japanese and the Saudis. Pissing off any of them risks playing with financial Armageddon.

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