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Thread: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

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    Default Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    From via the Boston Globe



    WASHINGTON—People with only cell phones may differ enough from those with landline telephones that excluding the growing population of cell-only users from public opinion polls may slightly skew the results, a study has concluded.



    The finding, in a report this week by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, may increase pressure on polling organizations to include people who use only cell phones in their surveys. While many major polls including The Associated Press-GfK Poll already interview cell phone users, some do not, largely because doing so is more expensive.

    Earlier studies -- including a joint Pew-AP report two years ago -- concluded that cell and landline users had similar enough views that not calling cell users had no major impact on poll findings. The new report concludes that "this assumption is increasingly questionable," especially for young people, who use cells heavily.

    Combining polls it conducted in August and September, Pew found that of people under age 30 with only cell phones, 62 percent were Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. Among landline users the same age that gap was narrower: 54 percent Democrats, 36 percent GOP.

    Similarly, young cell users preferred Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama over Republican nominee John McCain by 35 percentage points. For young landline users, it was a smaller 13-point Obama edge.
    Scott Keeter, Pew's director of survey research, said he believed this was because young cell-only users are less likely to own homes and be married than young people with landlines.

    "Those are two variables that are associated with being somewhat more conservative and more Republican," he said.

    The report released Tuesday said that in Pew presidential polls from June, August and September, Obama's lead was 2 or 3 percentage points smaller when cell users were omitted. Though such small discrepancies are usually within a poll's margin of error and not statistically significant, this suggests some bias could exist by omitting cell users, which could be crucial in studying a race as close as this year's presidential race.

    It has long been known cell users are likelier to be younger, lower income and minorities. Pollsters routinely weight, or adjust, their data so it accurately reflects the age, race and other demographic features of the entire population.

    According to federal figures, 16 percent of households had only cell phones during the second half of 2007, and another 13 percent had cell phones and landlines but seldom used the landlines to take calls. Cell-only households have been growing by 1 or 2 percentage points every half year.

    ----

    Overall it may be that some key swing states have skewwed polling as the do not reach out to the cell-phone only crowd....interestingly I was thinking about this a couple weeks ago

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    i live in a dorm, and no one has a landline, thats thousands of registered voters right there
    "We are the coolest mothafuckas on the planet....The sky is fallin ain't no need to panic"... -Outkast

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Word....I've been saying for weeks the younger generation will put Obama in office.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    the only problem being, if they actually go to the polls.
    i literally had a conversation with this girl, and asked her if she was registered to vote,
    she was not joking when she said she had more important things to do, and laughed at me like i was some crazy person
    "We are the coolest mothafuckas on the planet....The sky is fallin ain't no need to panic"... -Outkast

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Also....look at places where the younger generation gets their news like youtube channels/myspace-Obama is blowing McCain away and Obama is the one making the younger generation feel like they are involved.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Nice. So if you have a land line you are conservative. If you only have a cell phone you are liberal. What if you have both? Are you a conservaliberal? I agree with the other poster (can't remember the name) who said this is the wackiest election in recent memory.

    FBR
    Once again I have embraced my addiction and have put off the moral dilemma to another day.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Quote Originally Posted by FBR View Post
    Nice. So if you have a land line you are conservative. If you only have a cell phone you are liberal. What if you have both? Are you a conservaliberal? I agree with the other poster (can't remember the name) who said this is the wackiest election in recent memory.

    FBR


    The younger generation is a lot more likely to be Liberal vs Republican and not have a landline.

    I don't think this election is wacky. I think people are FED UP after a lot of disasterous moves...like ummm.....WAR.


    What's so funny is people who seem to slam liberals- are the ones who voted the current whackjob in office in the first place.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    I even think Jenna Bush and Mccain's daughter are liberal...even if they don't admit it. The Republican Party has turned itself into a joke that resorts to being desperate for the Religious Right and flat out lying. It's a destructive party. You kill the environment, you love war, you treat other people like crap.

    It's Sad...

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Another aspect is how many people with landlines pick up phones at any given minute. Even if they're home & not busy doing s^*t, several people "screen" calls, and answer only familiar callers. My answering machine gets several blank messages- I have yet to hear a message saying:" Hello, Mr. minnow, we REALLY want to know your opinion, please call us back at -------, at your convenience" .

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    The young are a violatile group, I'm teach a class this semester and even though it was totally off topic I spent some time talking about the election. They have a lot of power but the big question is will they exercise it. In the class I asked how many people were seriously planning to vote, to which the large majority responded in favor. Yet when I asked how many had got absentee ballots ready, or were going to take advantage of early voting (since the majority of them won't be home much and not on election day) they were mostly clueless. Which I take to mean a lot of them will end up not voting.

    Still I recognize that's a single class of college students, and not nessecarily representative, but it still raises some interesting questions.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Quote Originally Posted by sapphiregirl View Post
    The younger generation is a lot more likely to be Liberal vs Republican and not have a landline.

    I don't think this election is wacky. I think people are FED UP after a lot of disasterous moves...like ummm.....WAR.


    What's so funny is people who seem to slam liberals- are the ones who voted the current whackjob in office in the first place.
    My youngest son is a senior in college, has no land line of his own (but has a cell phone that I pay for) and is an Obamablognut. It's actually pretty funny. I told him that when he graduates and gets a job and starts paying taxes I will respect his opinion. That really irritated him but I know once he starts making money at a good job and has a epiphany that he doesn't want to hand it all over he will come around.

    I'm surprised you haven't found this election to be wacky considering all the twists and turns. I still hold that it is and I've suffered through quite a few of them.

    FBR
    Once again I have embraced my addiction and have put off the moral dilemma to another day.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Quote Originally Posted by FBR View Post
    My youngest son is a senior in college, has no land line of his own (but has a cell phone that I pay for) and is an Obamablognut. It's actually pretty funny. I told him that when he graduates and gets a job and starts paying taxes I will respect his opinion. That really irritated him but I know once he starts making money at a good job and has a epiphany that he doesn't want to hand it all over he will come around.

    I'm surprised you haven't found this election to be wacky considering all the twists and turns. I still hold that it is and I've suffered through quite a few of them.

    FBR


    Believe it or not, I tuned the election out until McCain picked Palin. I was very impressed with Obama at the DNC. His speech was watching history for the better.

    The only thing about this election I've been turned off about is how long its gone on.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Barack Obama's YouTube Channel has had over 16 million views. John McCain over 1 million.


    Speaking of the young vote...this is cool~


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcRA2AZsR2Q

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Quote Originally Posted by sapphiregirl View Post
    Barack Obama's YouTube Channel has had over 16 million views. John McCain over 1 million.


    Speaking of the young vote...this is cool~


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcRA2AZsR2Q
    Thanks for the youtube link. I have to admit I got a tingle. But then I woke up remembering that he dislikes folks like me. "Yes we can" is directed towards others. I feel guilty that I enjoy the fruits of my labor. I should be more "neighborly". This is really tough for me. I am a pretty generous guy overall.

    FBR
    Once again I have embraced my addiction and have put off the moral dilemma to another day.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    ^i think giving to charities is like putting a small bandaid on a big stab wound if thats what you mean by being giving. it doesnt end the problem, its just a temporary fix

    tax money is more like a permanent solution, and is alot more helpful to those in need.
    ex. more tax, better public school system, less dropouts, less criminals that may rob you. to put it extremely simply,
    but you get my point.
    feed a man a fish...
    Last edited by kikidejavu; 09-25-2008 at 10:34 PM. Reason: ......
    "We are the coolest mothafuckas on the planet....The sky is fallin ain't no need to panic"... -Outkast

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    I think that's a bad analogy. If you play it out it becomes: give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime. Taxes are like teaching a man to fish and taking half to feed the idiot's who refused to learn. So one guy catches 100 fish, 50 are taken and given to 50 people and next thing you know they are crying "I only got 1 fish and that dude has 50!





    Quote Originally Posted by FBR View Post
    I agree with the other poster (can't remember the name) who said this is the wackiest election in recent memory.FBR
    Not as wacky as Member Boards have been lately.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    ^are you saying that the children in inner city schools are idiots who refuse to learn?
    its more like taking a 25 to feed the guy who's side of the lake had no fish.

    just curious, what would your solution be for the fish analogy? just let the man on the other side starve?
    assuming that we all took the fishing class, because most people in poverty are not idiots who refuse to learn.

    or hell maybe the fishing class on the other side of the lake was sub par and didnt teach him properly, is he just to starve on his own? isnt this America? shouldnt there be some type of relief, and programs for this man, since we more than have the ability to help?
    Last edited by kikidejavu; 09-26-2008 at 01:20 AM. Reason: more reasoning
    "We are the coolest mothafuckas on the planet....The sky is fallin ain't no need to panic"... -Outkast

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Quote Originally Posted by FBR View Post
    Thanks for the youtube link. I have to admit I got a tingle. But then I woke up remembering that he dislikes folks like me. "Yes we can" is directed towards others. I feel guilty that I enjoy the fruits of my labor. I should be more "neighborly". This is really tough for me. I am a pretty generous guy overall.

    FBR


    I'm making the assumption the issue is always your taxes. Consider yourself lucky, you have it made compared to most of the world. Thank your lucky stars you were born in the USA and can gripe about paying taxes.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin have given much misinformation in recent speeches, as they distort the tax plan put forth by Sen. Barack Obama. One of the central points of this misinformation: raising taxes.

    Obama wants to raise the taxes of only the richest people in this country -- those who have enjoyed substantial tax breaks under the Bush administration, which McCain would continue.
    These very wealthy people have been paying a far lower percentage of their income than middle-class and blue-collar taxpayers. I find this really unacceptable. This also does not help our economy at all -- as recent bad economic reports prove -- and has devastated us in the middle class and poorer.
    Obama will change that and will not tax us ordinary hard-working people out of commission; in fact, he will bolster small businesses and support them in many ways, rather than taxing and regulating them so heavily they'll go out of business, as the McCain rhetoric claims.
    McCain also would continue to subsidize big oil at our expense, even as Exxon/Mobil and others report soaring profits. Obama will end these subsidies, thus garnering billions better spent on curing our domestic ills (health care, better schools, more accessible college education, among others). When I drive around and notice the occasional McCain sign here and there, I wonder whether these supporters, most of whom live in very modest houses like mine, bother checking the facts after listening to McCain/Palin? I urge you to do so.



    With all the important issues in the world- from war to the environment-makes me think people who gripe about their taxes going up under Obama....should really pull their selfish heads out of their asses and get a clue and what is important in life and what makes them selfish pricks.


    The world does not EVOLVE around you.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    These very wealthy people have been paying a far lower percentage of their income than middle-class and blue-collar taxpayers
    This is absolutely true. However, Obama has proposed nothing that would change the reality of this situation ... and has in fact proposed several measures that would continue / expand the ability of the uber-rich to legally avoid having to pay a higher percentage of their total incomes in taxes, despite that fact that Obama would increase the 'official' income tax rate on ordinary income.

    The quintessential example of course is Obama's call for yet more expansion of the ethanol / alternative energy programs ... which provides one of the most beneficial tax minimization methods for investors thanks to the 'production tax credits'. This amounts to the gov't granting the investors in ethanol distilleries / wind farms / solar etc. X cents per gallon or X cents per kilowatt-hour in tax credits for every unit produced. So not only does this make the earnings from such investments tax free, but the 'production tax credits' granted in excess of the taxes otherwise due on alternative energy profits can then be applied to reduce taxes due on other sources of income !!!

    Who ultimately pays for these 'production tax credits' ? Well, to some degree, every taxpayer ... who must make up the shortfall in tax revenues. But also every retail customer of ethanol blended gasoline, every retail electricity customer with a 'green power' component in the power they purchase etc. - because they are forced to pay higher than necessary prices for that ethanol blended gas and 'green power' component electricity. This of course involves every American from illegal aliens to the poor, to the middle class, to the rich. But the rich typically don't use 100 times as much blended gasoline or electricity than the poor on a per-capita basis, meaning that the majority of dollars collected to fund these 'production tax credits' do NOT come from the rich !!!

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Quote Originally Posted by kikidejavu View Post
    ^are you saying that the children in inner city schools are idiots who refuse to learn?
    its more like taking a 25 to feed the guy who's side of the lake had no fish.

    just curious, what would your solution be for the fish analogy? just let the man on the other side starve?
    assuming that we all took the fishing class, because most people in poverty are not idiots who refuse to learn.

    or hell maybe the fishing class on the other side of the lake was sub par and didnt teach him properly, is he just to starve on his own? isnt this America? shouldnt there be some type of relief, and programs for this man, since we more than have the ability to help?

    Where did I say anything about inner-city kids?! Last time I checked, every child was entitled to a free education and the opportunity to not learn.

    I was refering more to gov't handouts to adults with no strings attached. It was more a frustration with inefficient gov't and their inability to recognize and unwillingness to correct problems in gov't programs.

    The analogy itself is more about individual responsibilty. I just didn't think it worked when gov't was included in it, that's all.

    The gov'ts role wouldn't be running a fish-catching class, they'd just be giving fish to people sitting on their couches who qualify for free fish. Which is fine, because some people need free fish but some who do not would continue to get fish and the gov't never bothers to try to correct this. They just keep giving away fish so they can ask for more fish in the next budget.

    ps I live in Cali where 50% of our massive state budget is spent on education and the system is a wreck. 50%.

    pps The guy on the side of the lake with no fish needs to move.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    It wouldn't surprise me a bit for pollsters to get their data wrong because they didn't think their methodology through.

    Remember how they proclaimed so many folks (22 percent!!) stated "moral values" was the primary reason for their choice in the last election. Well, there was a reason for that.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    ^^ End threadjack. My apologies.
    Back on-topic: I think the unrepresented, cell only contingent is going to push Obama to a surprisingly easy win in Nov. I think the Republicans are going to get a much deserved rude awakening to what this country really thinks about the last 8 years.

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    Quote Originally Posted by Dirty Ernie View Post
    Where did I say anything about inner-city kids?! Last time I checked, every child was entitled to a free education and the opportunity to not learn.

    I was refering more to gov't handouts to adults with no strings attached. It was more a frustration with inefficient gov't and their inability to recognize and unwillingness to correct problems in gov't programs.

    The analogy itself is more about individual responsibilty. I just didn't think it worked when gov't was included in it, that's all.

    The gov'ts role wouldn't be running a fish-catching class, they'd just be giving fish to people sitting on their couches who qualify for free fish. Which is fine, because some people need free fish but some who do not would continue to get fish and the gov't never bothers to try to correct this. They just keep giving away fish so they can ask for more fish in the next budget.

    ps I live in Cali where 50% of our massive state budget is spent on education and the system is a wreck. 50%.

    pps The guy on the side of the lake with no fish needs to move.


    im sure he would love to move, sadly no one ever taught him to build a boat.
    fishless he shall remain.
    the other side of the lake is also known as a "bad neighborhood" because while the govt is arguing over who gets what, hungry people get pissed. crime starts happening.

    i dont know what hell happened to california, sounds like poor money management. but i know that more money for the disadvantaged is a great jumping off point for future health of everyone, if spent in a productive way.

    i think people who are greedy with their tax money, just dont care about those in need, because they think it doesnt affect them
    there is a possibility that you do care, but just dont have faith in the govt to spend it well. if thats the case you need to vote for someone you trust.

    i think the tighter we hold on to our tax money, the less progress is made toward a better America
    "We are the coolest mothafuckas on the planet....The sky is fallin ain't no need to panic"... -Outkast

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    Default Re: Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

    But where do you draw the line? If Johnny has a great education, but chooses to not try and drop out, does he still get a fish? Not to mention, raising federal taxes isn't going to improve the education system. It'll just allow the State and Local governments to put less into the pot. This is already happening in NC with the lottery proceeds system.

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