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    Default weekend commentary - 'unintended consequences' of the $700 billion dollar bailout ...

    more unique insights from my 'friend' Elaine ...


    (snip)"September 28, 2008

    Elaine Meinel Supkis

    Everyone is now trying analyze the latest futile debt spending spree of the desperate US as we try to restore the deadly status quo that can't be saved. The nice thing about bankruptcy is, it clears impossible debts and allows a restart. But it pays to pay back everyone, somehow. There is a method of going broke but still repaying that we don't want to try because this means killing the present totally unbalanced global trade and of course, stopping the US imperial projects dead in their tracks. The world is using us and we are the fools who let this happen. So time to discuss this latest futile bail-out from the perspective of History rather than Wishery [our wishes for reality].


    Breakthrough Reached in Negotiations on Bailout

    Among the last sticking points was an unexpected and bitter fight over how to pay for any losses that taxpayers may experience after distressed debt has been purchased and resold.

    Democrats had pushed for a fee on securities transactions, essentially a tax on financial firms, saying it was fitting that they contribute to the cost.

    In the end, lawmakers and the administration opted to leave the decision to the next president, who must present a proposal to Congress to pay for any losses.

    Officials said they had also agreed to include a proposal by House Republicans that gives the Treasury secretary an additional option of issuing government insurance for troubled financial instruments as a way of reducing the amount of taxpayer money spent up front on the rescue effort.

    The Treasury would be required to create the insurance program, officials said, but not necessarily to use it. Mr. Paulson had expressed little interest in that plan, and initial cost projections suggested it would be enormously expensive. But final details were not immediately available.



    I wish I was in on those negotiations. The GOP didn't withdraw support due to being against pouring billions into Wall Street. They were against it because the Democrats didn't want to add even more tax cuts to Paulson's Ring of Power proposal. I saw this plain as day at the hearings. All of the GOP Congressmen came into the chambers and about ten of them testified. Each one wanted capital gains tax cuts. Then all but 5 of them left the chambers when Paulson and Beranke went it. I wrote in my notes, 'The GOP wants ONLY the tax cut, they don't care about the rest. It is a game.'

    This game is clear: they want to pass off to the Democrats, the dirty job of supporting super-rich bankers or all those poor, little people will die out there in Americaland. The US public is very much against bailing out the super rich. The anger about all this will be directed towards the Democrats now even though the Democrats shot down the biggest Xmas gift ever for the rich, that 0% capital gains tax deal.

    This blatant gift giving to the wealthy was totally ignored by the media. This is why I am very, very grateful so many readers gave me the money to not only go down to DC but to have a fine camera which I could use to record reality through my own lens. This is why, when we are forced to look at the world through the media filter, we get a dim picture. I saw many reporters there and they were utterly bored during the first half of the hearings because it was Congressmen arguing with each other. They just wanted an official tidbit from the Sphinx and his jinxed sidekick, Gollum.

    There is no rescue plan, by the way, that will save and uphold equity values set during the previous bubble. There are ONLY two choices: the goddess of Inflation gets to eat everything or the goddess of Depression dines. There is no third option! That is it."(snip)


    (snip)"I have pointed out in the past, when the interest rate is below the rate of inflation, absolutely everyone wants to get this money so everyone and everything runs in the red and goes deep into debt. This Santa Claus goodies situation is irresistible. This continues until the value of everything sopping up this free borrowing is so overvalued, no one can afford to buy them even at 0% interest.

    This is all so sad. The bill passed by Congress and the GOP President is a last-ditch attempt at supporting unsupportable equity values. The hope is, this will cause raging inflation and the price/value reset that is going on will stop and we will have the power to force higher wages so both line up again. Woe to everyone, if the wage part fails! If wages don't go up, this will certainly increase the misery of the public. And since the US has killed labor unions, the chances of this working is around 0%. Wages will lag. Commodity prices will soar just like they did last year when billions were suddenly poured into the systems. And nothing will be fixed at all except we will all be in even more misery.

    The proof of this is very simple: last Fall, the Congress and government began working on a bill that would 'Put money into people's pockets, fast,' in order to 'restart' the economy. It took several months to engineer this Xmas gift. I got my check the same week world energy prices hit their peak and food inflation was raging.

    Afterwards, I figured out how much more I spent on food and fuel this last year compared to the year before and it came out to over $600. So my net gain was $0. This was true of all Americans. This inflationary rescue scheme merely fed inflation. Some foolish Americans spent this on goodies but this simply made their situation worse when inflation really took off after everyone got their checks in the mail. "(snip)


    (snip)"The goddess of Inflation has infinite computers that run all the time. She can outrun us when she wishes. Her son, Derivatives Beast sailed from $1 billion 30 years ago to a quadzillion dollars, most of it in the last four years. And it would have grown to infinity except the bankers ceased feeding this creature three weeks ago.

    This is the cause of the present stage of the panic, by the way. The $700 billion is NOT so we feed Main Street as the corrupt politicians are bellowing. Nor even Wall Street.

    THIS MONEY IS FOR SAVING THE FEDERAL RESERVE ITSELF. This is why Bernanke is now hiding under his bed. By the way, the Watchers from the Outer Darkness that are the pets of the goddesses in the Cave of Death and Wealth live under beds. This is why children are scared of what comes out of bed at night. Since I was hit by a lightning bolt while in bed when I was a child, I couldn't ignore them by hiding under a blanket. They were there and I was stuck with them, there."(snip)


    (snip)"The GOP and DNC will now fence in public over who is the creepiest of them all. We get to choose between corrupt Republicans and corrupt Democrats. I would wish to ask the non-corrupt members of Congress to start a new, bipartisan party, the 'No Bribery Party.' I would happily support it. But the media needs the revenues of TV and paper ads to make wealth. They would crush any anti-bribery people. This is the main reason the media refused to put Ron Paul and Kucinich on the air or interview them, etc, during the primaries.

    Bailing out underwater homeowners who played risky games by sucking up too much debt is tricky. Obama is right: we can't bail them out via this bill. When the courts are given the right to rewrite contracts, this undermines our entire legal system. Just as the Supreme Court undermined our elections when they said there as no reason to count votes since we have no right to vote for President, if we let judges simply redo all contracts, this sets massive precedence for doing this ALL the time!

    Everyone will sign contracts and then sue! Our courts will collapse under the tsunami of contract re-writes done by judges who have little idea of what is really going on! People have to learn how to not sign stupid contracts. Laws can be passed forbidding certain types of contracts. But since most of Congress has been bribed by bankers, there are few protections left. This is why we had the housing bubble! The contracts that people signed should have been made illegal BEFORE this.

    Undoing this is Congress's job and they, not the courts, must do this by forbidding gnomes from cheating, defrauding and defaming their customers! This takes me to the most important part of this story: corruption in Congress and the Presidency."(snip)


    (snip)"He [ Allan Greenspan - sic ] not only refuses to take responsibility for creating this housing bubble, he focuses only on the end effects and NOT the cause. And yes, economic professors dispute causes. But he is supposed to not only be a genius but he was the TOOL, the guy who ran things! So he better know the damn cause of all this and since I know he shaves more often than Bernanke, he has a mirror.


    Credit crunch banker leaps to his death in front of express train

    The City was in shock last night after the apparent suicide of a millionaire financier haunted by the pressures of dealing with the credit crunch.

    Kirk Stephenson, who was married with an eight-year-old son, died in the path of a 100mph express train at Taplow railway station, Berkshire.

    Mr Stephenson is believed to have taken his own life after succumbing to mounting personal pressures as the world’s financial markets went into meltdown.
    *snip*
    At Olivant Advisers he was paid £333,000 last year, but is thought to have made millions more from the core Olivant business, based in Guernsey.



    I got that story last night as well as some of the readers here who sent me or linked this story in the comments section. Yes, the suicides are beginning. Recently, in England, a multimillionaire who was ruined shot his children, his wife and his horses before burning down his mansion and shooting himself in a Götterdämmerung moment.

    At least my own ancestor, in the crash of the 1890's only shot himself and his wife and not my grandmother.

    The business of this latest economic suicide was in Guernsey. He was a stupid pirate. He was a hell hound. He gets zero sympathy from me. His wealth was due to hiding from taxes and cheating his neighbors."(snip)


    from

    I also highly recommend checking out Elaine's link, since her page includes a ton of statistics in regard to which politicians received how much money from financial institutions in exchange for voting in certain ways on certain legislation affecting the financial industry !!!

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 09-28-2008 at 09:12 AM.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - 'unintended consequences' of the $700 billion dollar bailout

    They are suppose to publish the test of the plan at 12:00 Sunday.

    I am not sure where that will be, but I think it might be here:



    At least there is mention of it though it is listed as DRAFT and unreadable.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - 'unintended consequences' of the $700 billion dollar bailout


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    Default Re: weekend commentary - 'unintended consequences' of the $700 billion dollar bailout

    Well one part that is certain is that hundreds of billions of dollars in 'freshly printed' US gov't dollars are going to be used to purchase mortgage backed bonds. One part that is also certain is that the US gov't is going to pay prices for these mortgage backed bonds which are close to their 'face value' and far above their actual market value at this time. In theory this will cause ...

    A. an immediately increase the 'health' of the balance sheets of major financial institutions by exchanging illiquid, 'paper loss' laden mortgage backed securites that nobody wants to buy for brand new US dollars.

    1 - this increases the value of financial institution bonds and CDO's that are held by rich investors, hedge funds, etc. by a significant degree

    2 - this increases the value of financial institution common stock that is held by small time investors by a small degree

    3 - this increases the amount of working capital (i.e. cash) available for the financial institutions with which to make new loans

    4 - as a secondary effect, this will stop price declines (or at least slow the fall) of real estate ... which will reduce the number of future mortgages that go underwater due to market price declines versus homeowner equity

    5 - by the same secondary effect, future market prices for real estate are likely to be just as high or higher than they are today


    B. An immediate decrease the health of America's balance sheet re international currency / financial markets

    1 - this will devalue the US dollar exchange rate, thus increasing prices for all world market commodities i.e. oil / gas, food, imported goods that every American must pay

    2 - this will increase the interest rates charged on all new loans, as foreign currency capital investors demand sufficient rate of return to make up for their US dollar denominated exchange rate losses

    3 - this will NOT increase the interest rates paid on deposit accounts / CD's, since both ends of deposit transactions are denominated in US dollars


    C. By some mechanism or another, 'qualifying' subprime mortgage loans will be 'renegotiated' i.e. the interest rate will be lowered, the outstanding balanced will be reduced, the length of mortgage term will be extended, etc.

    1 - delinquent 'subprime' homeowners will be allowed to 'buy' their houses for a much lower total cost than they originally signed their mortgages for

    2 - by one means or another, the US taxpayer will wind up covering some portion of the 'gap' between the amount of total money that the original lender is expecting to be repaid, and the amount of money the delinquent 'subprime' homeowner will actually be expected to pay ... in some ways analogous to a Chapter 13 bankruptcy settlement, apparently.

    3 - delinquent 'subprime' homeowners will also be cut a new tax exemption so they will not have to pay income taxes on the 'gap' funds they are effectively receiving courtesy of US taxpayers.

    4 - original mortgage lenders will also wind up 'eating' some portion of the 'gap' between the amount of total money they were expecting to be repaid, and the reduced amount of money the US Treasury / a judge / whoever rules is all the delinquent ''subprime' homeowner is actually going to be expected to repay.

    5 - mortgage lenders will increase interest rates on all future mortgages to recoup their 'gap' losses on existing loans, and cover their asses against the future possibility of the US Treasury / a judge / whoever unilaterally changing the terms of future mortgages to benefit the borrower.


    D. a huge question mark in regard to the future value of all of these mortgage backed securities that will be transferred to the US Treasury

    1 - If this bailout achieves its objective and causes real estate prices to stop falling, then the US taxpayer may break even or actually come out ahead.

    2 - If this bailout only postpones future declines in real estate prices, and therefore future declines in the value of mortgage backed bonds and securities, then the US taxpayer will be 'on the hook' for the difference between the ACTUAL market value of these securities and the $700 billion dollars that the US gov't paid to buy them.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 09-28-2008 at 12:28 PM.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - 'unintended consequences' of the $700 billion dollar bailout

    Clueless Idiots Running Shady Web-sites miss some important points

    * What if we stop building new homes?
    * Every Year, US gives Green Cards to around a Million new foreigners (who are generally very credit worthy). If not anything demand comes from them
    * What if there is positive black swan event (You know like how Google was born)?

    Aha, but that would make their blogs objective. We don't want that right? especially when we have a hidden agenda of shorting financials/stock market

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - 'unintended consequences' of the $700 billion dollar bailout

    * What if we stop building new homes?

    - lots of illegal alien homebuilding contractors lose their $15+ an hour job and voluntarily return to Mexico. As a consequence, local expenditures for social programs and public health drop tremendously.

    - lots of homeowners who ARE making timely payments on their mortgages see the market price / equiity of their homes gradually recover


    Every Year, US gives Green Cards to around a Million new foreigners (who are generally very credit worthy). If not anything demand comes from them
    and this will happen to an even greater degree if inflation puts pressure on the profit margins of remaining US employers ... which is guaranteed to be the case when the US Gov't effectively prints $700 billion out of 'thin air'.


    * What if there is positive black swan event (You know like how Google was born)?
    this is a poker player's argument, given that the probability of a positive Black Swan event is equal at best with a negative Black Swan event. Feel free to gamble with your own money, but not mine. And please don't expect me to turn over my money to make good the gambling losses of the uber-rich while they have pocketed huge gambling winnings in the recent past with NO thought of sharing those winnings with lowly middle class people like me.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - 'unintended consequences' of the $700 billion dollar bailout

    Getting back on track from masonic like black swan events...

    I think the results will be shortages and stuff just not happening.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - 'unintended consequences' of the $700 billion dollar bailout

    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
    - Dr John Zoidberg

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - 'unintended consequences' of the $700 billion dollar bailout

    ^^^ it seems that many among the financial 'elite' have been disappointed that the US Fed won't be buying their toxic paper at full face value this week !!!

    However, as I posted elsewhere, don't relax yet ... because the Democrats have the votes to pass a bailout bill over Republican objections if they are sufficiently 'motivated' to do so !

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