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Thread: I'm buying

  1. #1
    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default I'm buying

    I went back in the Market today. Not with both feet but I bought two rock-solid blue chip Dow based mutual funds. We should be at or near the bottom of this Bear Market.

    Just wish Bush would shut up. Every time he opens his mouth the Dow dives another 200 points.

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    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    while the DOW intraday crossed below my 8000 point 'line in the sand' twice today (friday), with a US holiday coming up on monday I didn't have the 'balls' to go seriously long over a 3 day weekend ... where the european and asian markets will still be trading but US markets will not ! I did put on a small amount of SPY call options though.

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    Veteran Member XxAmber89xX's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    My grandfather said that the markets in the 1930s didn't turn around until people stopped thinking that there was value in the markets.

    I'm holding course and not making any crazy moves yet. People have to realize that this is perhaps the best overall market example of a 'falling knife' in all history. Better to be late than early in this case. Just my opinion.

    I think we are only at day 4 of 40 days and 40 nights.
    Last edited by XxAmber89xX; 10-11-2008 at 08:51 AM.
    Oh Canada, we stand on cars and freeze...

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    God/dess britneyireland's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    I'm following technician Tim Knight: bear market rally for the next few months, then the next leg down.
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    God/dess Golden_Rule's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    I'm retired so I've been in fixed asset interest baring accounts for some time now and VERY happy to be forgoing all this.
    Fiat justitia, pereat mundus.


    BTW, while we are on the subject, is it needed to point out the obvious: That it is just possible that if you are willing to judge the worth of someone simply by what you read on a website about them it might say a whole hell of a lot more about you than it says about the person you are judging?

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    Senior Member Butrcup98's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    I have gotten a little scared after the beating my stocks have taken. I lost 20% last month. Honestly, I'm holding off until the market is done crashing. I'm putting all extra money into my savings account, which is earning 3.5%. I know that's not a lot, but it's safe; and it's still in the economy for the banks to play with. Then, after the dust settles, I'm going to take one huge lump of cash and throw it into my funds. I try to buy low and sell high.

    I just wish that America produced more. In my economics class, we were taught that America is 70% service and 30% product. That means that most of what we consume was produced in another country. Aside from cars, I can't remember the last time I saw a Made in America sticker.

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    I'm following technician Tim Knight: bear market rally for the next few months, then the next leg down.
    That is the same prediction that the 'Elliot Wave'-ers are making.


    I just wish that America produced more. In my economics class, we were taught that America is 70% service and 30% product. That means that most of what we consume was produced in another country. Aside from cars, I can't remember the last time I saw a Made in America sticker.
    The 'tin foil hat' crowd will tell you that this fact is going to make the recovery all that much more difficult for the US ... but FAR more difficult for foreign countries who have, up to now, depended on US consumers (i.e. continually growing US debt levels) to support their export industries. Along these lines, Toyota just announced it's worst quarter profit ever - partly due to reduced US sales, but mostly due to the exchange rate change between the US dollars that are paid to Toyota for US car and truck sales versus the Japanese yen that their balance sheet must be 'booked' in.

    Oddly enough, America does have some very strong 'production' industries. For example, Caterpillar, 3M, Boeing, Colgate-Palmolive, Kelloggs, and of course several major oil companies. But for the past decade or so these companies have been expanding their sales globally because demand and/or profitability levels in the US were not increasing very fast. Thus the 'fates' of these companies now depends as much on the rest of the world's economies, and the exchange rate of the US dollar, as it does on the US economy.

    I'm retired so I've been in fixed asset interest baring accounts for some time now and VERY happy to be forgoing all this
    unfortunately, even guaranteed interest bearing bank accounts and CD's are not going to be able to escape the effects of US exchange rate devaluation ... which will instantly cause the US dollar denominated price of gasoline / utility bills, the US dollar denominated price of food, the US dollar denominated price of all things imported etc. to skyrocket ! The same prognosticators who are calling for a 'small' economic upturn followed by another 'large' economic downturn are also calling for the 'small' improvement in the US exchange rate of late to also turn downward again !

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    God/dess Golden_Rule's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    unfortunately, even guaranteed interest bearing bank accounts and CD's are not going to be able to escape the effects of US exchange rate devaluation ... which will instantly cause the US dollar denominated price of gasoline / utility bills, the US dollar denominated price of food, the US dollar denominated price of all things imported etc. to skyrocket ! The same prognosticators who are calling for a 'small' economic upturn followed by another 'large' economic downturn are also calling for the 'small' improvement in the US exchange rate of late to also turn downward again !
    I've been aware of this for some time now.

    This is following historical patterns of other recessions [and we've been in a recession for two quarters now, despite what anyone says to the contrary].

    Other than the gold and some investment grade diamonds I purchased to hedge against inflation there is little that I can do but try to ride this out on my pension and annuities.

    If it gets bad enough I have to spark up the consulting biz I've kept my hand in and hope there is enough work to supplement any short fall. I truly didn't want to go back to working any where near full time again though.

    I am lucky enough to have options though. Which puts me ahead of the game.
    Fiat justitia, pereat mundus.


    BTW, while we are on the subject, is it needed to point out the obvious: That it is just possible that if you are willing to judge the worth of someone simply by what you read on a website about them it might say a whole hell of a lot more about you than it says about the person you are judging?

  10. #10
    AudreyLeigh
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    Question: Ive never bought stocks/bonds/anything. Would this be a good or bad time to get in the game. I think - ok, everythings low so it would be a good time to buy. Then I think - well, its so volatile, who really knows....

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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    while the DOW intraday crossed below my 8000 point 'line in the sand' twice today (friday), with a US holiday coming up on monday I didn't have the 'balls' to go seriously long over a 3 day weekend ... where the european and asian markets will still be trading but US markets will not ! I did put on a small amount of SPY call options though.
    Uh Mel, the Stock Market is OPEN today. Closing early; but it's open.

    I've read "SECURITY ANALYSIS" the same book that is Buffet's "Bible" for investing. The time to buy is when the stock price is well below the intrinsic value of the corporation and the time to sell is when the stock price is being widely inflated . If you look at some of the stock prices of the Dow 30 and more importanttly the S & P 500 you will see P/E multiples not seen since '73 -'74 and '79-80.

    The time to sell was last year and early this year. ( I sold off about 80% ) and the time to buy is now. It could easily take 2 to 3 years to see some issues really go up; longer if Obama and the Dems go nuts on taxes.

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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    Quote Originally Posted by XxAmber89xX View Post
    My grandfather said that the markets in the 1930s didn't turn around until people stopped thinking that there was value in the markets.

    I'm holding course and not making any crazy moves yet. People have to realize that this is perhaps the best overall market example of a 'falling knife' in all history. Better to be late than early in this case. Just my opinion.

    I think we are only at day 4 of 40 days and 40 nights.
    Well it took 25 ( TWENTY FIVE !!!! ) years for the Dow to get back where it had been in 1929 before the Great Crash. At that time the Dow lost 85% of its value. At present the market is off about 40%. Honestly, I don't get your grandfather's point. He said the markets turned around when "people STOPPED thinking that there was value in the markets" ????? Actually, the Dow turned around after the Crash until the Fed RAISED interest rates; Hoover RAISED taxes and signed Smoot-Hawley.

    The market started to recover once more until the Fed raised rates again in 1937 leading to the Recession of 1938. FDR's tax increases also served to choke off any recovery. In 1939 unemploymenbt was still 18%. It wasn't until W.W. II that the Depression ended.

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    Uh Mel, the Stock Market is OPEN today. Closing early; but it's open.
    My comment about the 3 day weekend was that a lot of potential trades would not be made because a lot of people would be taking a vacation day. This typically results in light trading volumes on US exchanges ... which in turn allows 'strange things to happen'. In retrospect, I obviously wish that I had been a bit more courageous ... but then again things could have gone the other way just as easily.

    My SPY calls did very well though just the same !


    My grandfather said that the markets in the 1930s didn't turn around until people stopped thinking that there was value in the markets
    I assume that 'gramps' was referring to the fact that it took 3 years ... from 1929 to 1932 ... for the market to finally reach a bottom. It is speculated that the decline finally turned around after virtually every 'casual' investor had given up hope of a turnaround and had sold to cut their losses.

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    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    Quote Originally Posted by britneyireland View Post
    I'm following technician Tim Knight: bear market rally for the next few months, then the next leg down.
    I agree. Eric best sell tomorrow morning (Tuesday).

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    God/dess carmen_b's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    Audrey :
    It's really based on what you think will happen. No one can predict the market. I think it's a great time to buy ( given that I don't mind not touching the money invested for 3-5 years ), but it's still gambling.

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    Veteran Member XxAmber89xX's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    My point was that the OPer said he thinks this is the bottom. I don't think you can call a bottom until it's in 20/20 hindsight.

    I do, however, believe there will be bear rallies. Some of the best gains are made during them.

    I still am not prepared to take long positions and I'm not a trader so I'm out.
    Oh Canada, we stand on cars and freeze...

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    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    Quote Originally Posted by carmen_b View Post
    Audrey :
    It's really based on what you think will happen. No one can predict the market. I think it's a great time to buy ( given that I don't mind not touching the money invested for 3-5 years ), but it's still gambling.
    You can predict the market.

    The prediction has a higher level of error the further in the future one looks.

    It is less about gambling and more about risk. There is some math involved that works.

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    ^^^ I would point out that the 'prediction math' cannot take into account the effects of extra-market forces i.e. the trillion dollars worth of bailout money that has been authorized by various gov'ts over the past few days.


    I still am not prepared to take long positions and I'm not a trader so I'm out.
    agreed ... but there IS money to be made by 'playing' the bounces - even if the fundamentals behind those bounces follow the dead cat theory.

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    Veteran Member XxAmber89xX's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    ^ I agree with you Mel. I just can't be flipping my methodology like a fish outta water, chasing every possible gain.
    Oh Canada, we stand on cars and freeze...

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    God/dess britneyireland's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    I'm outta my longs,
    flipped and short!
    Die Google Die!
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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    and I'm short the US dollar again

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    God/dess britneyireland's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    Fundamentals mean absolutely nothing in a market driven by fear.
    Rebecca Avalon







  23. #23
    Veteran Member XxAmber89xX's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    ^ I'm realizing that in a hurry!
    Oh Canada, we stand on cars and freeze...

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    Default Re: I'm buying

    You can not predict the market. No one can. You can make educated decisions based on the history of the market and what you think it will do though if that's what you mean. When I said gambling that may not have been the best term. What I mean is that there is simply no guarantee that what you do will increase your money if you choose to invest it this way. Hiding your money under your mattress or letting it sit in a savings account earning almost nothing is not going to increase it either, so you need to tailor your investmenets to your situation. My situation is that I have a moderate risk tolerance ( if I lose some of the money I invest , I can recoup it fairly quickly by working more hours .... ). I'm many years away from retiring from working and my living expenses are pretty economical. For me , this market is a great time to buy because I truly believe that the market will recover in 1.5-4 years, but I have no guarantee that it will. I don't do any short term investing and I'm kind of fascinated by it at the moment. I also may research some individual stocks and buy individual picks soon ( I only have funds for automatic diversification ) .

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    God/dess britneyireland's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm buying

    Technical Analysis (price patterns, moving averages) are not reliable right now either.

    I look for a break of support/resistance, and set close stops to lock in profit on daytrades.

    I bought a put on aapl this morning when it was banging its head on resistance at $107, rode it down to 100, set my stop loss at $103, got bumped out with a profit, before it tanked another $3.

    Trading isn't about being right or wrong, it's about making money and preserving capital.
    Rebecca Avalon







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