from a professional investor's BBS ...
(snip)"Excerpt:
"Here is what is going on: We just got a reconfirmation of the Dow Theory Primary Bear Market sell signal, and just got a new sell signal in our Primary Trend Indicator. These are two long-term fresh sell signals, suggesting that this Bear Market is nowhere near over. {this is what we just discussed on the phone when I said "this Bear Market is nowhere near over" !! That's why the financial planners are blowing smoke about buying NOW!} It means the bounce will be corrective. Putting this all together, it means the decline from the October 2007 highs is just wave a-down of an a-down, b-up, c-down Bear Market. Friday's closing low came precisely on the one-year anniversary of the all-time high in October 2007, and precisely the same day, six years later, from the October 2002 Bear Market bottom. This is amazing. It has a poetry to it. Whether the final bottom comes Friday, October 10th, or next Friday, or some other day soon, this will only be the bottom of the first leg down of a three-phase Bear Market.
The next leg, wave b-up, could/should last about 2 to 4 months, { this would make it a corrective rally till Jan~Feb 2009} and we anticipate a ton of volatility. We have a bunch of phi mate turns coming over the next 2 to 4 months, the next one after October 13th scheduled for October 23rd /-. Wave b-up could be an a-up, b-down, c-up affair, or a five wave a-b-c-d-e triangle, with violent swings, each wave shorter than its precedent wave.
Once wave b-up completes, sometime in early 2009 most likely, wave c-down will follow, WHICH SHOULD PROVE CATACLYSMIC, and based upon how low wave a-down got Friday, will likely hit new lows far below the 2002 lows. { This comports with what I expect estimating market could go down below Dow 6000 into the Dow 5000 range! } It will feel like it is ushering in Armageddon. Conservative investors must raise cash at the coming technical bounce, wave b-up. If wave b-up retraces 38.2 percent of the decline from October 2007, it could rise to 10,295.
If that is the case, it argues for a triangle pattern, essentially sideways pattern for wave b-up, as its price target would get hit before a reasonable proportional time period has passed. If the rebound is 50 percent, we are talking an upside target of 11,040. A 61.8 percent retrace would target 11,785.
One word of caution for anxious Bulls, wave b-up could start from lower levels, as there is just no way to guarantee a bottom point of a waterfall crash. We can tell you a bottom for wave a -down should be close, but this crash is like no other ever seen in America . Many of the dynamics are new.
Wave c-down could result in a new form of government, something quite different than the Founding Fathers established." "(snip)



Reply With Quote


Bookmarks