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Thread: Some surprises in the Election data

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    Default Some surprises in the Election data

    Myth- Obama won because of the "youth" vote i.e. voters under 30.
    Fact- Obama won 2/3 of voters under 30 but they made the difference in only two states, Indiana and North Carolina.

    Myth- There was "record" turn out.
    Fact- About a million more people voted in 2008 than in 2004.
    In "04 Bush won the popular vote 62 million to 59 million. In '08 Obama won 65 million to 57 million. A difference of about a million.
    Younger voters turned out in only slightly higher numbers than they did in 2004.

    Myth- Obama owes his election to Latinos.
    Fact- If there were no Latino voters; only New Mexico and Indiana would have changed hands.

    Myth- Obama owes his election to the "union" vote.
    Fact- The union vote split. McCain did well among white, working class males and union members are down to 12 % of all workers. Their money, volunteers and phone-banking didn't hurt but it's not why he won.

    The REAL reason Obama won was 97% of the African-American vote. Without such support Obama would have lost 107 Electoral votes in Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Quote Originally Posted by Pan Dah View Post
    What does "without such support" really mean? Would he have won with 96%? 90%?

    How do the percentages differ from the previous four elections (two Bush, two Clinton)? How do the raw numbers compare?

    And of course exit poll numbers can come up with those figures fairly easily. I wonder though in those states - male union member paradise and the heart of the old South - how big the "anti-black" vote was.
    If the black vote had gone as it did in 2004- 88 to 12 % ; Obama would still have won most of the states that he did.

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    sooo, maybe that's the real surprise-- that obama basically outperformed kerry in most groups, not *just* 'the blacks', and that's why he won so handily.

    based on CNN's exit poll data, that is in fact what happened-- obama did a bit better across the board-- white, black, hispanic-- and that's what OVERALL won him his clinton-style landslide (even more impressive without the repub-spoiler of perot that clinton had to smooth his path).

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Myth- There was "record" turn out.
    Fact- About a million more people voted in 2008 than in 2004.
    In "04 Bush won the popular vote 62 million to 59 million. In '08 Obama won 65 million to 57 million. A difference of about a million.
    Younger voters turned out in only slightly higher numbers than they did in 2004.
    If a million more people voted in 2008 than in 2004, wouldn't that make it a "record" turn out?

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    ^^^ not in percentage terms, since the US population (and specifically the US population of eligible voters) has grown far more than one million !

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    yes, and she cost more votes than she gained, actually managing to shrink the republican 'base' of social conservatives all by herself.

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Quote Originally Posted by miabella View Post
    yes, and she cost more votes than she gained, actually managing to shrink the republican 'base' of social conservatives all by herself.
    Actually, that would be better stated as:

    Yes, and the unrelenting, and mostly unsupported media attacks that gave an incalculable number of voters a false and biased view of her cost more votes than she gained, ...........

    Not that I liked Palin ... she is far too far 'right' for my tastes. I am just really disappointed with how she was treated and how the country sat back and let it happen. Was it because it was 'entertaining'? Was it because they were just too lazy to do any research to find the mass media's attacks were 90% vapid?

    Narcissus

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Quote Originally Posted by miabella View Post
    sooo, maybe that's the real surprise-- that obama basically outperformed kerry in most groups, not *just* 'the blacks', and that's why he won so handily.

    based on CNN's exit poll data, that is in fact what happened-- obama did a bit better across the board-- white, black, hispanic-- and that's what OVERALL won him his clinton-style landslide (even more impressive without the repub-spoiler of perot that clinton had to smooth his path).
    *claps handsEnd of thread

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Quote Originally Posted by Narcissus View Post
    Actually, that would be better stated as:

    Yes, and the unrelenting, and mostly unsupported media attacks that gave an incalculable number of voters a false and biased view of her cost more votes than she gained, ...........

    Not that I liked Palin ... she is far too far 'right' for my tastes. I am just really disappointed with how she was treated and how the country sat back and let it happen. Was it because it was 'entertaining'? Was it because they were just too lazy to do any research to find the mass media's attacks were 90% vapid?

    Narcissus
    the couric interview was real. that was all palin's fault and her own decision. same with being caught in the lies she chose to tell. if reporting on a politician's lies is 'biased', then i guess the media was 'biased' against all the people running. palin was hardly attacked, since the repubs were too scared to even let her near right-wing, friendly media for most of her campaigning time.

    plus, let's be honest. she went out and incited mobs to violence. that's not an 'attack' to point out how disgusting that is.

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    I firmly believe that Palin was not up to the job of being in national politics. Being a governor of a (politically) insignificant state and correcting some serious corruption is not a strong pre-requisite or qualification for the job in DC. Though it is for Alaska, where she should be staying in IMHO.

    Further, I believe the choice of Palin greatly contributed to McCain's defeat. Also I think by chosing her, I would have less trust in his choosing other members of his administration. This was one of the three big areas that made me vote against him, though I gave himserious consideration before all this nomination process started turning sour and mistakes weree being made. I went along with McCain for a long time but with Palin, it only lasted a few days.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Here's another interesting question : Why only about a million more voters in 2008 than in 2004 ? There is no doubt that Obama generated a lot of enthusiasm in both the African American and under -30 voting blocs. My guess is that a fair number of Hillary supporters stayed home rather than vote for Obama or for McCain AND that a lot of dyed in the wool conservatives stayed home to "punish" McCain.

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    You're probably more correct on the second count (conservatives sitting this election out) than the first count (Hilary supporters sitting this election out).

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    ^^ If so, it was a durned stupid move for them. Have to wonder if that is their normal response when they don't get their way.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Quote Originally Posted by miabella View Post
    the couric interview was real. that was all palin's fault and her own decision. same with being caught in the lies she chose to tell. if reporting on a politician's lies is 'biased', then i guess the media was 'biased' against all the people running. palin was hardly attacked, since the repubs were too scared to even let her near right-wing, friendly media for most of her campaigning time.

    plus, let's be honest. she went out and incited mobs to violence. that's not an 'attack' to point out how disgusting that is.
    What lies, specifically, was she caught in? I'm curious as I never heard of that ...

    Also, you seem to have an sub-par understanding of how politics are run in this country. It is her job to go on the attack. That is the way virtually every campaign has been run for years and years. People don't like seeing the candidates slinging much mud, so for the real hardcore attacks ... it falls on the candidate's vp pick. In the beginning, Biden did the exact same things Palin did, but when Obama obviously gained such a large lead over McCain, they put a short leash on him (for fear he would hurt them).

    Also, to say that she was inciting mobs to violence is, once again, a claim so partisan that it is funny just to read. Propaganda is what you were told and propaganda is what you are repeating.

    Quote Originally Posted by threlayer View Post
    I firmly believe that Palin was not up to the job of being in national politics. Being a governor of a (politically) insignificant state and correcting some serious corruption is not a strong pre-requisite or qualification for the job in DC. Though it is for Alaska, where she should be staying in IMHO.

    Further, I believe the choice of Palin greatly contributed to McCain's defeat. Also I think by chosing her, I would have less trust in his choosing other members of his administration. This was one of the three big areas that made me vote against him, though I gave himserious consideration before all this nomination process started turning sour and mistakes weree being made. I went along with McCain for a long time but with Palin, it only lasted a few days.
    If you think that her experiences in politics did not make her qualified for the job, what do you see as the prerequisites for qualification? While my opinion on Palin is clear, I dislike her for her extreme right wing views ... I don't understand how she can be labeled 'unqualified'.

    I agree that she hurt McCain, but mostly due to media bias and a very tarnished image of her that the majority of voters received. Virtually every attack on her, which there were many, was based on speculation, conjecture, and half-truths. Her only real mistake was agreeing to an interview by the left wing media and being so ill-prepared. She made a huge step up the political ladder with virtually no prior warning and, I believe, did quite well considering her circumstances.

    Like I said, I really didn't like Palin because she is a right wing nut job ... but I'm confused at the outrageous claims leveled at her still.

    Narcissus

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    "Unqualified" politically.

    Hell, I'm qualified legally.

    A lot of her "tarnished image" was her own doing, if you'll recall.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Quote Originally Posted by threlayer View Post
    "Unqualified" politically.

    Hell, I'm qualified legally.

    A lot of her "tarnished image" was her own doing, if you'll recall.
    I call bullshit.

    The media ran all over her ass. Obama got the kid gloves, Palin got the bull whip. SNL spent weeks making her look, and sound dumb. Hell the "news" media devoted time to covering SNL making fun of her.

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Quote Originally Posted by jester214 View Post
    I call bullshit.

    The media ran all over her ass. Obama got the kid gloves, Palin got the bull whip. SNL spent weeks making her look, and sound dumb. Hell the "news" media devoted time to covering SNL making fun of her.
    No, no , sorry. Palin doesn't need any help to come across as an ill-informed Hockey Mom Governor. I've read the transcripts of her interviews and watched a few on T.V. She is more articulate than Bush ( who isn't ? ) but just as intellectually uncurious. Nobody told her to say that she's waiting to hear from or get a sign from God to run in 2012. But that's exactly what she said. JUST WHAT WE NEED. Another President who thinks that God talks to them.

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Im not saying I think Palin is qualified to run in 2012 BUT for god sakes, could the media put PELOSI in the spotlight ?? I think America needs to know all about her and stop focusing on Palin(who may or may not run)
    What a moron!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    ~jenna~

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    ^^
    For those of you who dont know, Nancy Pelosi is the speaker of the house
    ~jenna~

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Quote Originally Posted by jennahoff View Post
    ^^
    For those of you who dont know, Nancy Pelosi is the speaker of the house
    Nancy Pelosi ? The union-busting winery owner ? The Speaker who couldn't count noses on the First Bail-out vote ? The gal who voted to make American Samoa exempt from U.S. minimum wage laws and OSHA regs ? Whose approval ratings are lower than Bush's ? That Nancy Pelosi ?

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    I find she doesnt make the medias spotlight enough... if anyone deserves title of a complete IDIOT its her. Yet all we ever hear about is palin palin palin
    ~jenna~

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Quote Originally Posted by jennahoff View Post
    I find she doesnt make the medias spotlight enough... if anyone deserves title of a complete IDIOT its her. Yet all we ever hear about is palin palin palin
    Media bias wouldn't be playing a part in this; would it ?

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    ^^^ Pelosi would probably lose any objective IDIOT contest to Harry Reid hands down. But something like 80% of Americans don't know who he is !

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    ^^ sad isnt it?

    I only mentioned pelosi and not reid cause i was comparing woman to woman
    ~jenna~

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    Default Re: Some surprises in the Election data

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ Pelosi would probably lose any objective IDIOT contest to Harry Reid hands down. But something like 80% of Americans don't know who he is !
    Harry Reid ? Star of "BRAIN DEAD AND LOVING IT " ?

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