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Thread: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

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    Default Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    From US News and World Report.....

    <snip>

    Why Obama Looks Like a One Termer
    November 11, 2008 03:00 AM ET | James Pethokoukis | Permanent Link | Print
    Just "one and done" for Barack Obama's presidency? Recall an ominous passage in his otherwise joyous election-night speech: "The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even in one term." Maybe the tone was suggested by one of Obama's economic advisers like Jason Furman or Austan Goolsbee. It's the battered economy, after all, that will be President Obama's greatest domestic policy challenge. As such, it will also be his greatest political challenge, too -- but one where failure may already be baked into the cake.

    That's right, the "O" in "Obama" may stand for "One Term." For starters, there's a strong chance that when voters head to the polls on Nov. 2, 2010, they likely will still think the economy is awful. Not much debate about that. (Good chance the Democrats' two-election winning streak comes to an end.) And while voters may be somewhat patient for two years, patient for four years? Really unlikely. If history is any guide at all, voters may still be terribly cranky about the economy when they cast their ballots on Nov. 6, 2012 and thus likely choose the 45th president of the United States -- be it Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal or some other Republican without "Bush" for a last name. Once again a "change" election for an impatient America. The same bad economy that doomed John McCain in 2008 will have sunk Obama, as well.

    Here's the political and economic math: Let's assume the current downturn turns out to be as painful as the 1990-91 recession. It's an apt comparison. As Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Gary Stern said earlier this year," The situation we confront today is reminiscent, in several salient ways, of the headwinds environment that prevailed in the aftermath of the 1990-91 recession."

    Among those "headwinds" Stern referred to: an imploding real estate bubble, a construction bust, a banking crisis, and a credit crunch. Sound familiar? The nation's gross domestic product fell 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990 and 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 1991. But even after the economy started expanding again, the unemployment rate kept rising until it hit 7.8 percent in June of 1992 vs. a low of 5.2 percent in June 1990. Recall that in January of 1992, President Bush, running for reelection, told New Hampshire voters that the economy was in "free fall" even though the economy was later shown to have grown at a robust 4.2 percent during the first quarter of that year.

    See, it takes a while for people to really perceive that an economy has turned around, especially if unemployment is high. Bill Clinton won the 1992 election on the economy ("it's the economy, stupid") even though GDP had been growing for six full quarters. According to Gallup, 88 percent of Americans thought the economy was "fair" or "poor" in October 1992 with some 60 percent saying the economy was "getting worse." Two years later, it was the Democrats turn to feel the brunt of widespread economic anxiety as the Republicans captured both the House and the Senate. Even though the economy had then been growing for 14 straight quarters and the unemployment rate was down to 5.8 percent, 72 percent of Americans still thought the economy was "fair" or "poor" and 66 percent though the nation was headed in the wrong direction.

    That's right 3 1/2 years after the 1990-91 recession ended, the economy was still weighing negatively on voters and hurting the incumbent political party. Is it so hard to imagine, then, that three or four years from now voters will also be unhappy about the state of the economy and blame the party in power, the Obamacrats?

    And then there's this: The 2008-09 recession may actually be far nastier than its 1990-91 twin. Every day, Wall Street forecasts worsen. Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, expects a jobless rate of 8 1/2 percent by the end of 2009 and drifting a bit higher in 2010 for the biggest cumulative rise in unemployment since the Great Depression. And over at JP Morgan Chase, economists are predicting the economy will shrink 4.0 percent this quarter and 2.0 percent during the first three months of 2009. And on top of all that, you have the $7 trillion of lost national net worth. (Think higher investment and business taxes will help?)

    No wonder Obama's political advisers just told the New York Times that they're already fretting about the 2010 midterms. They may also want to worry about 2012. Team Obama shouldn't expect this election euphoria to last four years if the economy struggles and struggles. (Wait until oil prices and interest rates start rising again.)

    Obama's election is often compared to that of Ronald Reagan's in 1980. Both gentlemen were voted in to fix an ailing economy. But the 1982 recession took a huge chunk out of the Gipper's popularity. He had just a 35 percent job approval rating at the start of 1983, just two months after Republicans lost 27 seats in the House in the midterm elections. But Reagan's presidency was saved by an amazing economic rebound. The economy surged at a 4.5 percent pace in 1983 and at a mind-blowing 7.2 percent clip in 1984 as unemployment dropped from a high of 10.8 percent in December 1982 to 7.2 percent in November 1984. The Long Boom was underway.

    Reagan worked his magic with tax cuts. Obama is trying to do the same with government spending. But stimulus packages are only supposed to keep the recession from getting worse or morphing into a mini-depression. I don't think anyone expects that $500 billion in hot money to return America to prosperity. Only time (and the private sector) can do that, especially with a downturn caused by a credit crisisa and deflating asset bubble. And four years may not be enough time for the Obama presidency to traverse that long road or complete that steep climb.

    <snip>
    "never trust a big butt and a smile"-- Bell Biv DeVoe

    If you're in your twenties and aren't a liberal, you have no heart. If you're in you're forties and aren't a conservative, you have no brain - Winston Churchill

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    I definitely agree that the current economic turmoil will do a lot to color his administration. There's no way everything can be addressed and fixed in 4 years, especially considering his hefty campaign promises. Whether Democrat or Republican, it's a big challenge and even the most capable president would probably have to leave some people dissatisfied at the end of this 1st term.
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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by LizardQueen View Post
    I definitely agree that the current economic turmoil will do a lot to color his administration. There's no way everything can be addressed and fixed in 4 years, especially considering his hefty campaign promises. Whether Democrat or Republican, it's a big challenge and even the most capable president would probably have to leave some people dissatisfied at the end of this 1st term.
    Even though we all know my dislike for Obama and his agenda-rife social policies, I have to agree. It is clear that unless the economy does an unlikely rebound he will be sitting in the 'hot seat' when re-election time comes around.

    The deck is stacked against him, but truthfully ... I don't feel bad for him. He is stacking the deck against himself by his stance on policies that will hurt the economy rather than allowing it a chance to recover. :shrugs:

    Narcissus

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Narcissus View Post
    Even though we all know my dislike for Obama and his agenda-rife social policies, I have to agree. It is clear that unless the economy does an unlikely rebound he will be sitting in the 'hot seat' when re-election time comes around.

    The deck is stacked against him, but truthfully ... I don't feel bad for him. He is stacking the deck against himself by his stance on policies that will hurt the economy rather than allowing it a chance to recover. :shrugs:

    Narcissus
    First the Republicans need to find a candidate worth half a shit.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by jester214 View Post
    First the Republicans need to find a candidate worth half a shit.
    I was actually hoping that Mike Huckabee would step up and run with it. I strongly dislike the fact that he was some type of religious preacher before going into public service (I'm a strong believer of separation of church and state), but he was running with the 'fair tax plan' as his economic platform. That alone made up for any disagreements I had with his policies ...

    The fair tax plan is one of the greatest ideas I've ever read and anyone who supports it will get my vote.

    Narcissus

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Narcissus View Post
    I was actually hoping that Mike Huckabee would step up and run with it. I strongly dislike the fact that he was some type of religious preacher before going into public service (I'm a strong believer of separation of church and state), but he was running with the 'fair tax plan' as his economic platform. That alone made up for any disagreements I had with his policies ...

    The fair tax plan is one of the greatest ideas I've ever read and anyone who supports it will get my vote.

    Narcissus
    OMG..... huckabee...in office.... i honest to god would leave the country...... i swear to god.... i would have left....





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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by jester214 View Post
    First the Republicans need to find a candidate worth half a shit.
    Maybe, maybe not. For all the jumping up and down about Obama getting elected, it wasn't a landslide and his victory ( to me ) seems to be a result of the Dems successfully tying McCain to Bush. It's the only explanation for how he won. It's highly likely that it was just a Dem's year for President. Obama's support is already starting to wane and he's still two months from taking office. Once the voters foolish enough to believe any of his promises were either possible or good for the country wake up, it will erode even further. Reagan won in '80, but he didn't have to be Reagan to win that year.
    "never trust a big butt and a smile"-- Bell Biv DeVoe

    If you're in your twenties and aren't a liberal, you have no heart. If you're in you're forties and aren't a conservative, you have no brain - Winston Churchill

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Yeah I don't know about Huckabee. I would hate to have a president who is so completely socially conservative. In fact, I kind of liked McCain early in the election because he does have a more moderate record. Let's hope the Republicans put forth something better than... Palin... in 2012. Even better would be if Obama just completely kicked ass and got reelected! Much simpler that way.
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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    I think Obama will be able to get reelected in the next election. I don't think he Republicans will be able to pull themselves together in 4 years because it's going to take a while to get back to the conservative basics. The social conservatives have taken over the party much to the Republican party's detriment. They need to get those people out and run as a truly fiscally conservative party instead of the party that hates gays, hates abortion, loves war and loves Jeebus. They will need to appeal to a much broader audience in the future and expand their base without the social damnation BS they've acquired for some reason.
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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ms. Mia Roberts View Post
    OMG..... huckabee...in office.... i honest to god would leave the country...... i swear to god.... i would have left....
    Quote Originally Posted by LizardQueen View Post
    Yeah I don't know about Huckabee. I would hate to have a president who is so completely socially conservative. In fact, I kind of liked McCain early in the election because he does have a more moderate record. Let's hope the Republicans put forth something better than... Palin... in 2012. Even better would be if Obama just completely kicked ass and got reelected! Much simpler that way.
    The fair tax plan is beyond incredible. Hell, if Obama wanted to change his social agenda to include the fair tax plan (impossible) ... I'd gladly vote for him.

    Narcissus

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Miss_Luscious View Post
    I think Obama will be able to get reelected in the next election. I don't think he Republicans will be able to pull themselves together in 4 years because it's going to take a while to get back to the conservative basics. The social conservatives have taken over the party much to the Republican party's detriment. They need to get those people out and run as a truly fiscally conservative party instead of the party that hates gays, hates abortion, loves war and loves Jeebus. They will need to appeal to a much broader audience in the future and expand their base without the social damnation BS they've acquired for some reason.
    The view you have of the GOP is the view the DNC wants you to have. I'm pretty typical I think of a conservative. I don't hate gays but I oppose gay marriage because , well, it just isn't marriage. I say give them all the rights they want, just don't call it marriage. I don't love war, but sometimes its neccessary, and once you're in, you have to win. I'm also not very religious, but to me its plain as day that abortion is just evil.

    The GOP needs to stick to the conservative ideals that set it apart from the Dems. Putting up a clown like McCain again would be the biggest mistake they could make. The GOP wins when they run conservatives and loses when they run RINO's.

    In any event the next election ( and the mid-terms, for that matter ), will be referendums on Obama. I guess at that point we'll find out if those of us who criticize what he proposes are right or not.
    "never trust a big butt and a smile"-- Bell Biv DeVoe

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Narcissus View Post
    The fair tax plan is beyond incredible. Hell, if Obama wanted to change his social agenda to include the fair tax plan (impossible) ... I'd gladly vote for him.

    Narcissus

    i'm sorry...but i wouldn't be able to live under the rule of someone who compared gays to child molestors....

    no mater how good thier economic plan was....





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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.


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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Even with the biased view offered by the writer of that article, the fair tax is said to create economic growth by both sides. It is argued back and forth equally ... and that is an article written with an agenda.

    That, in and of itself, speaks volumes.

    Look, the fair tax plan will work, will be fair, will bring jobs back to the U.S., will no longer penalize success, will not penalize the poor, will remove the unnecessary IRS, ... and best of all, will grow the economy at a fantastical rate.

    Narcissus

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by dlabtot View Post
    Thank you Dlabtot. Excellent piece laying out why the "Fair" tax is a LOUSY idea.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    I have avoided posting in this thread so far in order to minimize controversy. However, nobody has covered a fundamental point yet ... so I'll be the one to mention it. That point is that Obama's re-election chances will depend on how well he can hold together a wide cross section of Democratic special interest groups to whom he has made arguably contradictory campaign promises.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    I have avoided posting in this thread so far in order to minimize controversy. However, nobody has covered a fundamental point yet ... so I'll be the one to mention it. That point is that Obama's re-election chances will depend on how well he can hold together a wide cross section of Democratic special interest groups to whom he has made arguably contradictory campaign promises.
    Or ; whether he can cobble together a new centrist coalition.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Note of advice for those who want Republican rule again at some point. Drop the social conservative stuff.

    Things like wanting to end Roe v Wade, banning gay marriage, not respecting seperation of church and state, ect. Those issues are mostly personal, private things that are not the business anyone other than the actual person involved.

    Don't want to have an abortion, then don't have one. Don't want to be gay or marry a person of the same gender, then don't do it. Stop trying to make others live by your personal religious mantra.


    Stick instead to fiscal conservative ideals and you all would be so much better off.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lucy in the Sky View Post
    Note of advice for those who want Republican rule again at some point. Drop the social conservative stuff.

    Things like wanting to end Roe v Wade, banning gay marriage, not respecting seperation of church and state, ect. Those issues are mostly personal, private things that are not the business anyone other than the actual person involved.

    Don't want to have an abortion, then don't have one. Don't want to be gay or marry a person of the same gender, then don't do it. Stop trying to make others live by your personal religious mantra.


    Stick instead to fiscal conservative ideals and you all would be so much better off.
    ^^^agreed.

    For Obama to lose in 4 years I'm guessing there would have to be no improvement at all on a lot of issues and I just don't see that being the case as the bar has been set incredibly low by GWB. The economy will not still be in a slump 4 years from now, the economy just doesn't work that way, there are ups and downs, it would be highly unusual for things to not come around at some point over the next 4 years and Obama will get credit for that whether he had anything to do with it or not. The only thing that could work against him would be another terrorist attack of some sort as that would open up the security issue once again.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Just so you know...not wanting gays to be married is NOT just limited to conservatives.
    Just look at California, a widely known liberal state and they banned it.

    Id like to think of myself as a center right conservative.
    I do not have any problems with abortion although i do have a problem with partial birth abortion unless the mothers life is in danger.
    I do not have a problem with gay people wanting to marry either.

    Also, we all need to get out of this rep vs. dem mentality.
    We all need to meet in the middle somewhere and try to fix the damn country!
    ~jenna~

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    ^^ btw, i was referring to an above post by "lucy in the sky"
    ~jenna~

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by jennahoff View Post
    Also, we all need to get out of this rep vs. dem mentality.
    We all need to meet in the middle somewhere and try to fix the damn country!
    Yeah. If only it weren't for those damn divisive social issues!
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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    I have avoided posting in this thread so far in order to minimize controversy. However, nobody has covered a fundamental point yet ... so I'll be the one to mention it. That point is that Obama's re-election chances will depend on how well he can hold together a wide cross section of Democratic special interest groups to whom he has made arguably contradictory campaign promises.
    I think what you have stated here is untrue. You could disabuse me of this notion by citing some examples of "contradictory campaign promises" that were made to "special interest groups".

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by jennahoff View Post
    Just so you know...not wanting gays to be married is NOT just limited to conservatives.
    Just look at California, a widely known liberal state and they banned it.
    Actually..CA is a red state

    Quote Originally Posted by lexilou View Post
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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    ^^^ It's more purple than anything really.
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