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Thread: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    I think what you have stated here is untrue. You could disabuse me of this notion by citing some examples of "contradictory campaign promises" that were made to "special interest groups".

    I was referring to fairly obvious subjects like promising tax cuts to 'middle class
    Americans while calling for new social spending programs for the 'poor' ... or the issue of gun rights in Sacramento versus Colorado ... or the issue of 'post-racial'-ism in big cities versus small towns. In each case, Obama supporters in different locations thought that Obama said he supported a position that they wanted to hear. And in each case Obama must eventually choose a single position on each issue, which is going to disappoint at least a portion of those supporters. I suppose that it's also possible that Obama will NOT choose a position and leave thihgs the way they currently are ... but this would disappoint a wide cross section of supporters to whom Obama promised 'change'.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    I understand that you believe what you are saying, but that doesn't make it true.

    If you would attempt to actually provide the citations that I asked for, you'll discover that they don't exist and maybe in the process you might learn something.

    I hate having to explain simple concepts to people who actually already understand them and are just pretending that they don't, but sometimes you have to do these things, so here goes: citing an example of "contradictory campaign promises" that were made to "special interest groups", would involve: (a) pointing to an actual campaign promise that Obama made to a 'special interest group' (not your paraphrase of what you believe he thinks, but an actual quote from a reputable news organization), and (b) pointing to another, contradictory campaign promise that Obama made to a different 'special interest group', reported by a reputable news organization.

    But I won't hold my breath waiting for that to happen.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    OK, I'll bite. Please teach me how it's possible to give a tax cut to 95% of Americans and still increase gov't social spending by ~$800 billion. Or are you disputing that Obama made such campaign promises ?

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Like I said, I won't hold my breath.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    OK, I'll bite. Please teach me how it's possible to give a tax cut to 95% of Americans and still increase gov't social spending by ~$800 billion. Or are you disputing that Obama made such campaign promises ?
    Melonie. He's being silly. All you had to was watch the nightly news and compare what Obama said to what was on HIS WEBSITE ! Obama is NOT unique. All candidates tailor their message to their audience; many have flip-flopped and more than a few have had contradictory positions at different points in time as their campaigns went along. Compare G.W.'s promises to the reality. Compare what Clinton promised to what we got instead. I'd argue you'd have to go all the way back to Reagan to find a Presidential candidate who substantially delivered on what he promised during the campaign.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    OK, I'll bite. Please teach me how it's possible to give a tax cut to 95% of Americans and still increase gov't social spending by ~$800 billion. Or are you disputing that Obama made such campaign promises ?
    It's pretty easy. You govern responsibly and get the whole economy doing well again instead of only worring about Big Business and rich people getting to have all the money and you release the stranglehold that big oil has on the republicans and exploit the world-wide need for alternative and green energy. Make it a huge industry that creates high paying jobs and brings in alot of investment. By doing these things as Cinton did and Obama has proposed, tons of peoples incomes go up, so even while the % they are paying in tax goes down, the amount they pay goes up because they are earning more. And in the case of those who have lost they're jobs because they were shipped over seas or downsized out by the past adminstrations horrible policies, well they are now paying income tax whereas before they were collecting unemployment.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Since it is obvious that no actual citations will be forthcoming, I guess I'll simply note that both Ronald Reagan and George Bush initiated massive tax cuts along with massive spending increases, not that I think they are good role models for President-elect Obama.

    Further, the idea that "95% of Americans" constitutes a "special interest group" is rather ludicrous (the American people are a special interest group?), but not surprising, considering the source.

    Somehow, I suspect that it is the tax increase on the 5% making more than $250,000, rather than the tax cut on everyone else, that has your ire. But of course, to mention that would undercut your bogus argument by acknowledging that the revenue reality does not match up to your oversimplification.

    So, supposedly we have on one side of these contradictory promises, a "special interest group" made up of 95% of Americans. I wonder, who is the competing "special interest group" to whom Obama made this supposed promise to "increase gov't social spending by ~$800 billion"?

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    Senior Member Lucy in the Sky's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by jennahoff View Post
    Just so you know...not wanting gays to be married is NOT just limited to conservatives.
    Just look at California, a widely known liberal state and they banned it.

    Id like to think of myself as a center right conservative.
    I do not have any problems with abortion although i do have a problem with partial birth abortion unless the mothers life is in danger.
    I do not have a problem with gay people wanting to marry either.

    Also, we all need to get out of this rep vs. dem mentality.
    We all need to meet in the middle somewhere and try to fix the damn country!
    If the GOP went more in the towards adopting the "personal freedoms" view rather than the current "Religious Right" position- they would gain alot more votes which they have either lost or never had in the first place in future elections.

    If they honestly became the party of personal freedoms and conservative fiscal policy THEN they would be a powerhouse again rather their current situation of being lame ducks.

    If they want to survive they need to drop the 'holy roller' shit. Completely.

    People can be that way in their own lives if they want as part of the whole personal freedoms concept however party platform is not the place to be pushing religious doctrine.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Man, you have him out of ther before he even gets in.

    He WON the election; let's give him a chance, for goodness sake.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by dlabtot View Post
    Since it is obvious that no actual citations will be forthcoming, I guess I'll simply note that both Ronald Reagan and George Bush initiated massive tax cuts along with massive spending increases, not that I think they are good role models for President-elect Obama.

    Further, the idea that "95% of Americans" constitutes a "special interest group" is rather ludicrous (the American people are a special interest group?), but not surprising, considering the source.

    Somehow, I suspect that it is the tax increase on the 5% making more than $250,000, rather than the tax cut on everyone else, that has your ire. But of course, to mention that would undercut your bogus argument by acknowledging that the revenue reality does not match up to your oversimplification.

    So, supposedly we have on one side of these contradictory promises, a "special interest group" made up of 95% of Americans. I wonder, who is the competing "special interest group" to whom Obama made this supposed promise to "increase gov't social spending by ~$800 billion"?

    We already tried a version of Obama's proposed middle class tax cuts. Bush's stimulus checks. Did any new businesses get started ? Were any new jobs created ?

    Don't get me wrong. I am all for middle class tax relief. The 95% figure is highly misleading. It includes everyone who doesn't pay Income taxes which itself is misleading because they have money withheld and then get it back by filing a tax return. Plus they pay payroll taxes and FICA.
    The income level where an actual tax cut will be given has been fluctuating. It started at $250,000 a year and below. Then it was a cut for $200,000 and below but those between 200k and 250k wouldn't see an increase. Then it dropped to $150,000.

    Without any tax cuts and by permitting Bush's cuts to lapse in 2010, almost EVERYBODY will see a tax increase. The top rate will go back to 39.6 % and the income level at which no taxes are paid will DROP from it's current number. Part of Bush's cuts was removal of millions of folks from the tax rolls.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lucy in the Sky View Post
    Note of advice for those who want Republican rule again at some point. Drop the social conservative stuff.
    ...Those issues are mostly personal, private things that are not the business anyone other than the actual person involved...Stop trying to make others live by your personal religious mantra...Stick instead to fiscal conservative ideals and you all would be so much better off.
    ABSOLUTELY !!! Stay the hell out of my own personal life and beliefs. Tending to your own will keep you very busy anyway. And if it doesn't then get a hobby.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    ...I'd argue you'd have to go all the way back to Reagan to find a Presidential candidate who substantially delivered on what he promised during the campaign.
    I guess fortunately for Reagan, he did not promise not to give us the biggest deficit we'd ever have to the point where many large, traditionally American corporations would have to sell off thei assets to the Japanese. Because if he had, Carter would have been in there instead. Oh gosh!
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by jennahoff View Post
    Just so you know...not wanting gays to be married is NOT just limited to conservatives.
    Just look at California, a widely known liberal state and they banned it.
    Yeah, 97% of Blacks voted for Obama nationwide, yet 70% of Blacks in California voted to ban gay marriage. If you do the math, that means that 2 out of every 3 Black voters in California were simultaneously for Obama and against gay marriage, yet the protesters don't target them for any of their protests.
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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lucy in the Sky View Post
    If the GOP went more in the towards adopting the "personal freedoms" view rather than the current "Religious Right" position- they would gain alot more votes which they have either lost or never had in the first place in future elections.

    If they honestly became the party of personal freedoms and conservative fiscal policy THEN they would be a powerhouse again rather their current situation of being lame ducks.

    If they want to survive they need to drop the 'holy roller' shit. Completely.

    People can be that way in their own lives if they want as part of the whole personal freedoms concept however party platform is not the place to be pushing religious doctrine.
    Brilliant! Cut off their base entirely, that genius... end funding, some of there most powerful lobbying groups, say bye-bye to states like Utah forever. Why didn't anyone thing of this before? They should just become Democrats, that would SAVE THE PARTY!!!

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    There is no doubt at all that we've got a lot of damage to undo. If Obama can't undo the damage, then who can?


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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    many will tell you that there is NO viable political process by which this damage can be undone.

    Yeah, 97% of Blacks voted for Obama nationwide, yet 70% of Blacks in California voted to ban gay marriage. If you do the math, that means that 2 out of every 3 Black voters in California were simultaneously for Obama and against gay marriage, yet the protesters don't target them for any of their protests
    I didn't want to cite this specific example, but in fact it zeros in precisely on the point that I was trying to make. Just as black constituents and gay constituents appear to be in fundamental opposition, so are union labor constituents versus poor constituents, so are uber-rich liberal coastal constituents versus flyover state blue collar constituents etc. In the final analysis, there is no single decision that Obama could make which will please one constituent group without also pissing off another constituent group. And yes 'constituent group' is a more accurate buzzword that my earlier use of 'special interest group' (probably because 'special interest group' is usually associated with business interests).

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    ^^^

    But Obama is against Prop 8, so by voting for Obama AND against prop 8, they are voting with Obama.

    I don't see the discrepincy. I think it's terrible to lump together all minorities....I mean, do women, gay men, and mexican Americans all vote the same way? (just as an example, I picked random "minority" groups.
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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    ^^^ that is exactly the point. Obama's successful election relied on 'lumping together' all of these constituent groups / minorities / buzzword of your choice under one umbrella on election day to vote for a Democratic president !!!

    But many of these constituent groups do in fact have different interests. And in many cases, those different interests clash i.e. you either have legalized gay marriage or you don't - or - the gov't can spend taxpayer money to employ union workers or spend taxpayer money to provide additional social welfare benefits to the poor but the gov't can't afford to do both.

    Thus there is no way that Obama can make / keep all of these constituent groups happy at the same time. This leads to the possibility of 'unhappy' constituent groups withdrawing their support of Obama in 2012 to 'send a message' ... in much the same way that unhappy republican / conservative groups obviously stayed home during the 2006 and 2008 elections. If this happens, it could cost Obama a successful re-election bid.

    Undoubtedly the back room political strategists are already at work thinking about 2012. And just as undoubtedly, they are thinking about the consequences of making particular constituent groups unhappy versus making other constituent groups unhappy. Along those lines, the democratic strategists can more or less take for granted that gay constituents and black constituents and poor recipients of social welfare benefits will vote for Obama versus any republican challenger in 2012 ... thus these are likely to be the first three constituent groups to receive the 'short end of the stick' from Obama. But union workers and the uber-rich are a different story ... thus there are likely to be the first two groups that Obama will try to keep 'happy'.
    Last edited by Melonie; 11-15-2008 at 04:57 PM.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Melonie says we can't do it. I think the pessimism you see among Republicans must come from feeding exclusively on a diet of hate and fear.

    But we say, yes we can.

    Enjoy your future in Costa Rica, Mel. I look forward to your travel reports.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    ^^^ actually, once I'm gone I'll probably depart from SW as well ... at least in terms of being a moderator. And I haven't totally committed to Costa Rica yet either. Given recent developments, it may turn out that Panama may be a wiser choice for a long term ex-pat despite the fact that it will be a bit more complicated and expensive (i.e. business investor visa). But if the Panamanian business investor option can't be brought together by mid January, Costa Rica it is ( i.e. I don't intend on spending more than 30 days per year in the USA once 2009 arrives).

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 11-15-2008 at 06:52 PM.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    that it will be a bit more complicated and expensive (i.e. business investor visa)
    Don't go for the business investor visa in Panama, go for the retired tourist/pensionado visa. Mine cost $1,700 total including legal fees, you only need to show $1,000 a month in income. It only took 5 weeks. With the recent changes in immigration laws most of the downsides like re-newing in 5 years and not being able to get citizenship have been eliminated as has getting the additional multiple entry visa every 3 months. Plus then you qualify for all the great jubilado discounts and don't have to wait on the long line at the bank. Age doesn't matter and you should have a breeze with the other requirements. PM me if you like and I can give you the details.

    Also, Costa-Rica is altering their immigration laws and there is a big backlash amoung people planning to move there and those that already do as they are making it retro-active:


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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lucy in the Sky View Post
    If the GOP went more in the towards adopting the "personal freedoms" view rather than the current "Religious Right" position- they would gain alot more votes which they have either lost or never had in the first place in future elections. If they honestly became the party of personal freedoms and conservative fiscal policy THEN they would be a powerhouse again rather their current situation of being lame ducks.
    I missed commenting on this issue.

    If the GOP is supposed to reduce governmental interference, as it says, then it make a LOT of sense to allow more personal freedoms. Get it - less government, less regulations/laws? Should be simple enough. Just remember though, the Republican party is the party of 'business'. But instead it means to them reducing governmental interference for business, not for the people. It is just clearly illogical. This is what never made sense to me. Then the religious RIGHT comes into play and tries to reduce personal freedoms even more. what a MESS they have made for themselves. Thanks, Bush, for screwing up even more the party of Lincoln; he's probably flipping in his grave.

    Me? I'm a centrist. It's just that the GOP influence is a lot less than it used to mean to me.

    If Bush got two terms of incompetence, then Obama should a second term if he does reasonably well at all. Seems to me. Of course the electorate is easily tricked into illogical voting preferences....
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Also, Costa-Rica is altering their immigration laws and there is a big backlash amoung people planning to move there and those that already do as they are making it retro-active:
    yup this retroactive business was the primary basis for my reconsideration of Costa Rica.


    go for the retired tourist/pensionado visa. Mine cost $1,700 total including legal fees, you only need to show $1,000 a month in income
    one aspect of this is subject to recent changes as well ... an age requirement for pensionado status, and a suitable ironclad 'guarantee' of an ongoing $1,000 per month income for those under age 65 ( I guess that Wall St losses have burned a lot of current ex-pats thus the Panama gov't now wants an income guarantee from a government, from an annuity etc.). However, it appears that this can be gotten around by 'guaranteeing' a $1,000 a month income potential for 5 years yourself ... which in my case probably amounts to 'parking' $60k in a restricted Panamanian bank account. To avoid having this money tied up by the Panamanian gov't, I'm seriously looking into the 'small investor' option, where a $50k investment would at least be 'put to work'. And actually, one of the businesses that the Panama gov't wants to promote falls directly into my own personal experience ... the raising and export of ornamental plants ! And becoming a 'small business' owner also guarantees a path to Panamanian citizenship (which the pensionado does not) as well as guaranteeing a gun permit.

    There's also the options of Aruba / Cayman Islands / Belize etc. ... but all of these have drawbacks in one form or another. However, Belize has actually made recent changes to their immigration laws that make this option more attractive.

    I would also speculate that the reason that all of these countries are now reviewing their immigration policies is that there must be a comparatively huge number of Americans who are preparing to become ex-pats as Obama takes office !

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 11-16-2008 at 09:06 AM.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    ^^^^Melonie, the new Panamanian immigration laws just took effect this past August. They were passed about a year ago, so the raise in income levels was not in response to the current financial meltdown, in fact they may even back-track down the line as a result and lower them again.

    However, it appears that this can be gotten around by 'guaranteeing' a $1,000 a month income potential for 5 years yourself ... which in my case probably amounts to 'parking' $60k in a restricted Panamanian bank account. To avoid having this money tied up by the Panamanian gov't, I'm seriously looking into the 'small investor' option, where a $50k investment
    The Small Business Visa was eliminated.


    The above is the bad news, the good news is that you have a path to citizenship with almost every visa and you no longer have to renew in 5 years for most of the visas, once you got it you got it. No multiple entry visas either every three months. I would rather not discuss the specifics on obtaining the Pensianado here (feel free to PM), but you don't have to tie up any cash. You just show when you apply that you receive more than $1,000 per mo.(not from a Panama bank account but from anywhere, pm me for specifics) along with some other relatively easy requirements, once you are approved, that's it. You are in for good by the new law, no 5 year re-newal, no multiple entry visas and you have the path to citizenship. There is a new provision including a $100,000 requirement but that is easy as it includes any combo of deposit in bank or real-estate.

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    Default Re: Why Obama looks like a one-termer.

    Quote Originally Posted by threlayer View Post
    I guess fortunately for Reagan, he did not promise not to give us the biggest deficit we'd ever have to the point where many large, traditionally American corporations would have to sell off thei assets to the Japanese. Because if he had, Carter would have been in there instead. Oh gosh!
    There were large deficits under Reagan because of the S P E N D I N G and not just the 30% increase in the Defense budget. They jumped from about 70 billion under Carter to 150 billion under Reagan. I'd sign up for that right now. Ah, the "good old days".

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