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Thread: Making Politics interesting

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    Default Making Politics interesting

    I've been getting a little frustrated with all this back and forth concerning the new adminstration and how bad things will be etc. It seems we're all spending a fair amount of time debating this stuff without any type of compensation or gain if our views prove out to be correct

    I'm fairly confident that Obama's intelligence, ability and desire to be a real leader will have a very positive impact and make things alot better. Many here read nothing but disaster from every single angle and seem very, very condident in their outlook. I am wondering if anyone is willing to make it interesting and put their money where their mouth is. It will be tricky, but if anyone is willing and we can find an agreed upon barometer to be judge of the state of the country in say 8 months, one side will win. The tough part will be the agreed barometer, but if we can get one, I'm willing to put $1,000 on our soon to be President.
    Last edited by arctic717; 11-22-2008 at 09:52 PM. Reason: fixed apostrophe's made with bad keyboard

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    I might consider taking that bet ... but not denominated in US dollars !!! 8 months from now a dollar may only be worth 50 cents in terms of international 'purchasing power'.

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    I might consider taking that bet ... but not denominated in US dollars !!! 8 months from now a dollar may only be worth 50 cents in terms of international 'purchasing power'.
    Choose whichever currency you like

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    OK let's go for one ounce of gold.

    Now for the more difficult part ... how to measure the future versus present state of the country, and for whom. In other words, it is arguable that an increase in gov't deficit spending that increases the 'equivalent cash value' of social welfare benefits given to the 'poor' benefits some 40% of Americans. It is similarly arguable that a 10%+ triple tax free interest rates on municipal bonds benefits the 'rich'. It is similarly arguable that increased gov't spending on bailouts for unionized industries (both public and private sector) as well as increased gov't spending on public works (or is it make work) projects to union contractors at prevailing wage rates benefits another 10% of the population. However, ALL of these are arguably bad for America's economic future.

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    ^^^^Yes, getting the criteria to judge will be difficult. I would be open to taking the below poll and using eveything except "Confidence in Bush"



    or we can use a combination of these 2:

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    Hmm. Ok now this is getting good. Someone pass the popcorn please.

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    Oh this is officially bada$$
    The artist formerly known as your mom

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    well, unfortunately, poll results don't show anything meaningful about the true health of the economy. They can just as easily show the short term gratification of recipients of a recent gov't stimulus check or the beneficiaries of a gov't financed 'make work' job or the recipients of a gov't provided 'tax credit' check even though they paid no income taxes ! None of these will actually contribute to the true health of the economy, and all of these will arguably hurt the true health of the economy, yet they will indeed placate certain Americans (those who are eligible for the gov't benefits or who have the political connections to get the jobs).

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    ^^^Your point is taken, I would argue though that the economy is by and large mental and that if people are confident and believe things are OK and will most likely stay that way or get better- they buy and invest and the economy grows, if they don't feel that way they hoard and the economy shrinks.

    So what baramoters can we use?, perhaps a combo of; Job creation, the Dow, consumer confidence. Or we can agree on some or all of the 10 listed here:

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    ^^^ again many of the same points apply i.e. 'make work' jobs funded by increased gov't deficit spending. How about something more 'down to earth' ? I would propose ...

    The US dollar's 'purchasing power'

    The TRUE unemployment rate (without subtracting 'discouraged' job seekers)

    The TRUE consumer price index (without substituting chicken for beef)

    America's TRUE Gross Domestic Product (without counting gov't subsidies)

    fortunately, all of the above are available at ...




    Then we should also include some realistic measure of the performance / financial condition of US industries. Arguably none of the stock indexes do this since all of these embed the effects of gov't bailout money, tax write-offs of previous years losses, gov't subsidies etc. I'm open to suggestions in this area.

    We should also include some realistic measure of the change in standard of living in the US versus foreign countries. Perhaps via something like the Big Mac Index ?

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    ^^^The first one looks fine. I hesitate to use the Big Mac index or any other index that shows comparison to foreign economies, as they may impacted up or down by factors unrelated to those related to our wager ie. Obama's performance.

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    ^^^ well we need to agree on some yardstick that will compare the 'performance' of the Obama administration's policies versus the typical 'performance' of other economies around the world that are following different policies. Without this, the old 'a rising tide raises all boats' axiom can easily (and incorrectly) be applied. Like various world economies of the 1930's, it makes a difference if the US GDP increases by 1% while the rest of the world doesn't increase at all (indicating a 'good' policy that has achieved higher than average positive growth) versus the US GDP increasing by the same 1% while the rest of the world increases by 10% (indicating a 'bad' policy which has hindered growth, although some small amount of growth did in fact occur).

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    ^^^I don't think we need the yardstick for other economies. I'm willing to bet our economy will not only not crash or go down under him but will actually get better than it is today. From what I've read your prediction is that it will get even worse than it is today, much worse. I would be more than happy to wager based on the indicators you suggested here:

    Up is up and down is down.

    There are far too many variables in comparing it to other countries economies. War, natural disaster, disovering oil etc. I am willing to accept those unexpected factors in impacting the US economy for our bet, but to do it world-wide is just too much uncertaintly.

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    well we somehow have to acknowledge the impact of the positive or negative effects of possible future events, as opposed to the positive or negative effects of Obama's policies themselves. In the absence of such acknowledgement, and over the comparatively short term time frame we'll be looking at, a repeat of 9/11 or other highly negative world events could unfairly skew results against Obama. On the other hand, the discovery of nuclear fusion or other positive world events could skew results in Obama's favor.

    Again the yardstick I am trying to capture, and the point I am willing to wager on, is the relative performance of Obama's policies versus 'different' policies.

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Again the yardstick I am trying to capture, and the point I am willing to wager on, is the relative performance of Obama's policies versus 'different' policies.
    Exactly, the "different policies" I am comparing him to are the previous Bush policies. In any case the wager should be: are things going to be extremely negative with the economy tanking and many, many suffering horribly and near or actual collapse of the economy as you often infer OR are things getting better, people and markets being calmed by an intelligent leader who's able to allay fears by his demeaner, his actions and his policies. And in so doing actually start rebuilding the economy and at the very least stop the slide into disaster and doom.

    That is what I am willing to bet on and that was the whole purpose of the bet, for all the people so confident of Obama's policies leading to certain disaster to put their money where their mouths are. Not in comparison to other economies or other policies, but simply stoping our trainwreck and making things better than they are now. A number of your indicators seem to me sufficient to make that detirmination.

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    well, in the interest of putting my money where my mouth is ... OK I'm in - on the basis of the ShadowStats indicators alone.

    You mentioned an 8 month time period. Does that mean we compare the ShadowStats indicator levels of today versus 8 months from now i.e. the end of July 2009 ?

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    well, in the interest of putting my money where my mouth is ... OK I'm in - on the basis of the ShadowStats indicators alone.

    You mentioned an 8 month time period. Does that mean we compare the ShadowStats indicator levels of today versus 8 months from now i.e. the end of July 2009 ?
    Sounds good to me, I'm in. We will evaluate the indicators at ShadowStats on 7/25/08 and will let the facts talk. For payout do you want to go with the equivalent in U.S. dollars of one ounce of gold at that time?

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    The fact is ... there are innumerable ways to 'coat the boat' and put off the 'bad things' for an administration some distant time down the road. It has happened many times and is a large part of why the country is in the shape it is today.

    Having said that, Obama does not seem inclined at the moment to shelf his agenda and do so. Eventually, I think that he will be forced to do exactly that, but I hardly see it happening in an eight month time frame! Agendas are hard to let go ...

    I might be interested in joining this wager (wife permitting), on the condition that a reliable 'third party' hold all monies. I'm not saying that I don't trust anyone who is defending a political view on a forum made for strippers to pay ... just that, well ...

    Narcissus

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    This is a cool wager

    There is something about gold. I have one Krugerrand in my safety deposit box. It is a beautiful coin. I'm trying to buy some Eagles but there are none out there. Mel pointed that out in another thread. Once again the uber-rich are way ahead of us plebeians

    FBR
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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    screw paper money and paper trails. If I lose you'll be receiving a one ounce bar of 99.99% pure hermetically sealed Johnson Matthey gold. And wondering whether that gold bar may be worth US$500 or US$2000 next July just adds to the Obama drama.



    I would also add that, right now, the major online gold retailers are only shipping 1oz gold bars to customers OUTSIDE of the USA.




    We will evaluate the indicators at ShadowStats on 7/25/08 and will let the facts talk
    I agreed that we will evaluate the ShadowStats indicators as of the end of July 2009 compared to the end of November 2008. However, it may actually take a few weeks beyond both of those dates for accurate data covering that time period to be collected, digested and posted by ShadowStats. In point of truth, I expect significant differences to be immediately apparent such that a graphical comparison will be sufficient for our purposes. In the absence of significant differences, we can decide whether to nitpick or to declare a draw.


    The fact is ... there are innumerable ways to 'coat the boat' and put off the 'bad things' for an administration some distant time down the road. It has happened many times and is a large part of why the country is in the shape it is today.
    Sad but true. And this effect admittedly works against me in the present context. However, I'm still willing to wager that enough of the 'true picture' will escape sugar coating and be shown in the ShadowStats data (as opposed to the official US government data).


    7/25/08
    while this isn't an 'official' part of the wager, for the record I'll set down a few major statistics from 7/25/08 which we can search up next July as a potential 'tiebreaker'

    - interest rate on a new 30 year conventional 'prime' mortgage (per Bloomberg News) = 5.0%

    - average price of a gallon of gasoline (per AAA New England) = $1.96

    - Russell 2000 Index (widest measure of corporate America) = 443

    - COMEX Corn Futures contract price = 355

    - US Dollar Index (from NYBOT) = 85.49

    - National average One year CD interest rate (from Bankrate) = 3.36%

    - Nationwide average price of a Big Mac (per Dallas FED) = $2.99

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 11-26-2008 at 07:39 AM.

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    ^^^ I don't think there will be any perfect way to quantify the results but what we have so far is fine with me.

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    average price of a gallon of gasoline (per AAA New England) = $1.96
    Are you sure you don't mean $3.96? Historic national highs in gas prices occurred in mid July '08.

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    While I am not much of a betting woman I am toying with the idea of jumping in on this because I am over 90% sure that things will improve under Obama rather than get worse. This bet seems like easy money. Almost too easy, lol!

    Is it too late to participate in this little wager?

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    I thought the only gold that didnt have to be reported (for a US citizen) is American Eagles.

    FBR
    Once again I have embraced my addiction and have put off the moral dilemma to another day.

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    Default Re: Making Politics interesting

    Are you sure you don't mean $3.96? Historic national highs in gas prices occurred in mid July '08
    see The price has actually dropped from $1.96 to $1.91 this week.


    I thought the only gold that didnt have to be reported (for a US citizen) is American Eagles.
    gambling winnings have to be reported in any case, regardless of the currency ... PROVIDED that you are residing in the USA when those winnings are received and/or the winnings come from US sources. Where Arctic and next August are concerned, this will be a non-US transaction between ex-pats LOL !

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