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Thread: It looks like New York dodged another terrorist attack ...

  1. #26
    God/dess FBR's Avatar
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    Default Re: It looks like New York dodged another terrorist attack ...

    I wish there was a member here who works for DHS that could define "substantiated" for us from his/her expert view point. I mean, I would be nice if those folks who would do us harm would let us know the exact time, place and method but I suspect they wouldn't want to show all their cards to us. I understand that reacting to every rumor tends to create the chicken little syndrome but at the same time I personally (living near a very important military installation) would prefer caution.

    FBR
    Once again I have embraced my addiction and have put off the moral dilemma to another day.

  2. #27
    Senior Member Lucy in the Sky's Avatar
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    Default Re: It looks like New York dodged another terrorist attack ...

    Quote Originally Posted by FBR View Post
    I wish there was a member here who works for DHS that could define "substantiated" for us from his/her expert view point.

    FBR
    It's not DHS but a good explanation can be found in the first link which I reported again for Deogol.

    I guess it's alot to ask of conservatives here but seriously, all you gotta do is just bother to read it. It's an article by a pretty well respected person(Phil Zimbardo, Past President APA) albeit on the psychology of things rather than tactical details.

    The article discusses among other things why "substantiated" alerts are useful while "unsubstantiated" ones can be harmful.

    For anyone just plain too lazy to open and read a link here is a brief excerpt. Further details can be found in the actual link itself


    here ya go:

    "To be optimally effective, such alarms should arouse only a moderate level of motivation -- too low doesn’t energize action, and too high creates emotional overload and competing, distracting behaviors. The alarms must be based on reliable evidence, and presented clearly by trustworthy sources about specific dangers or threats that may be dealt with by taking some recommended action. If the threat is likely to persist over an extended time period, debriefing after an alarm is essential to correct misinformation, modify faulty recommendations, and to reinforce citizens for heeding the message and to reassure them of the value of their collaborative efforts. Finally, if the threat does not materialize, a reputable authority must provide some explanation of why, and then also lower or remove the threat alert."


    another excerpt


    "Another conjecture concerns the unintended consequences of these many false alarms, and perhaps some intended ones. Given the void of terrorist attacks in our country after 9/11, compared to the great many in Israel for example, these alarms have worked to sustain a heightened sense of anxiety and confusion for more than a year. They reinforce a public willingness to spend huge sums on military defense spending and homeland security. The alarms also create a climate of hostility and danger that encourage moral disengagement in accepting restrictions on personal freedoms, and ignoring human rights violations"

    And just a bit more for good measure and to cover some of the other thingsI have been pointing out here about how Chicken Little's let terrorist win by buying into and spreading these false alarms.


    "Terrorism is not about war in any traditional sense of destroying the material resources of an enemy nation and taking over their country. Terrorism is about psychology. It is about taking strategic actions that incite terror and fright in civilian populations. Terrorism is about making ordinary people feel vulnerable, anxious, confused, uncertain and helpless. Ultimately, when terrorism works, citizens feel hopeless and lose trust in their leaders to guarantee the fundamentals of existence -- safety and security. Terrorism is about imagining the monster under our beds or lurking in dark closets -- the faceless, omnipotent enemy who might be the friendly candy man, our neighbor, or some horrible creature of our imagination. It has no one place, time, space or face. The power of terrorism lies precisely in its pervasive ambiguity, in its invasion of our minds.

    Reactions to feeling personally vulnerable vary considerably from stimulating phobias, to triggering unresolved childhood conflicts, to prolonged stress reactions, to blindly obeying powerful leaders, and to intense feelings of anger. Anger is one form of displaced emotion that arises from feeling helpless or vulnerable. It is a turning out of intense and concealed feelings of weakness. Prejudice against out-groups is one consequence of such strong negative emotions, as is an increased readiness to attack “safe” targets, such as marginalized peoples in our nation, or even family members"
    Last edited by Lucy in the Sky; 11-30-2008 at 02:27 PM.

  3. #28
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    Default Re: It looks like New York dodged another terrorist attack ...

    No need to worry FBR, terrorists aren't particularly fond of military targets.

    I was in my room watching cable news, on the 26th floor of the Mirage in Las Vegas on Christmas of '03, the day 6 Air France flights were cancelled and LV was identified as the potential target. My cel phone rang and I stood at the window while my friend's wife pleaded with me to get downstairs.

    In the casino later that night, I didn't find much concern among the few who were even aware of the report. In '04, and every Christmas since, I now go to Hawaii where I can worry about UV rays instead.

  4. #29
    Senior Member Lucy in the Sky's Avatar
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    Default Re: It looks like New York dodged another terrorist attack ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    here's the results of 'unsubstantiated warnings' that aren't taken seriously ...
    After reading this article I must point out that those warnings were taken seriously and in fact various safety measures WERE in place and even more stringent ones had been in place previously. I suspect those measures were lessened due to false alarms which were very likely intended to cause that very reaction. It's called a diversion and is another reason to keep perspective and awareness of the difference between "unsubstantiated" and "substantiated" threats.

    So I guess I should now say to you for proving my point.


    I think it's also important to note here that so far based on current available information it appears that no amount of security measures would have stopped this attack. Including the super tight security that was in place just a short time prior to the attack. All security measures were either bypassed or eliminated by the terrorists during the attack.

    But anyway, your saying the warnings were not taken seriously at ALL is incorrect at best.

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: It looks like New York dodged another terrorist attack ...

    while the hotel itself put some additional security measures in place, I'm referring to the response of the Mumbai police (or lack thereof) ... which was lackluster even AFTER the attack was well underway

  6. #31
    Senior Member Lucy in the Sky's Avatar
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    Default Re: It looks like New York dodged another terrorist attack ...

    Ok well now you are just back peddling and this discussion is getting redundant which is boring to me so I think I'm probably done here. I made and proved my points anyway.

  7. #32
    God/dess threlayer's Avatar
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    Default Re: It looks like New York dodged another terrorist attack ...

    To me it would make a lot more sense if the DHS would just do what needs to be done to shore up our vulnerabilities instead of posting threats to the public. Those are already known; just get it done, guys! The public needs to know to watch out for certain things, but turning us into paranoics will not help DHS to keep on the right track.
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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: It looks like New York dodged another terrorist attack ...

    more details re Mumbai ...



    (snip)"U.S. intelligence agencies warned their Indian counterparts in mid-October of a potential attack "from the sea against hotels and business centers in Mumbai," a U.S. intelligence official tells ABCNews.com.

    A second government source says specific locations, including the Taj hotel, were listed in the U.S. warning.

    One month later, Nov. 18, Indian intelligence also intercepted a satellite phone call to a number in Pakistan known to be used by a leader of the terror group, Lashkar e Taiba, believed responsible for the weekend attack, Indian intelligence officials say.

    The Indian intercept also revealed a possible sea-borne attack, the officials say.

    The chairman of the company that owns the hotel, Ratan Tata, told CNN that security was temporarily increased following a warning.

    Tata told CNN Sunday that the enhanced measurers were later eased and, in any case, "could not have stopped what took place." "(snip)


    Thus on the face of it, in both the case of Penn Station and the Taj Hotel, US intelligence agencies had passed on information of an unverifiable but fairly specific threat to national / local authorities. In the case of Penn Station, action was taken by those authorities and nothing developed. In the case of the Taj Hotel, other than the hotel itself national / local authorities took little or no action and 200+ victims are now dead.

    So yes I have to admit that I am wrong. The Taj Hotel is now a verified threat !

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    Default Re: It looks like New York dodged another terrorist attack ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    In the case of the Taj Hotel, other than the hotel itself national / local authorities took little or no action and 200+ victims are now dead.

    There's not enough info from that snippet to ascertain that. It could have been that they provided their own security on conjunction with the locals.

    ohh, if you actually read other stuff, including what the police say, they took off the security restrictions and personnel about a week before the attack.

    So, a warning was given in late September. How long are increased measures supposed to be enacted for? A month? A year? Ten years? You can only do so much, for so long.

    It does seem the terrorists had LeT training/ connections. (LeT was created by the ISI to attack India over the Kashmir issue). So, it seems that if Pakistan did not allow this errorist group to exist and operate out if its country, this could have been avoided (or be made much more difficult).
    Quote Originally Posted by The Snark View Post
    But then I suppose the sort of people who write this kind of crap generally don't allow their opinions to be tainted by things like "facts" and "reality".
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    Default Re: It looks like New York dodged another terrorist attack ...

    Quote Originally Posted by glambman View Post
    ...So, a warning was given in late September. How long are increased measures supposed to be enacted for? A month? A year? Ten years? You can only do so much, for so long....
    In these cases, as long as it takes to eliminate the threat. Remember how long they planned the 9/11 attack?

    Yeah, I know it is impractical. But our impatience is part of their strategy. And that's why they are so dangerous.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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