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Thread: this week is full of economic stats ...

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    Default this week is full of economic stats ...

    leading off with this report ...



    (snip)"Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the U.S. contracted in November at the fastest pace in 26 years, putting American factories at the forefront of a global industrial slump emanating from the lack of credit.

    The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index dropped to 36.2, the lowest level since 1982, the Tempe, Arizona-based group reported today. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. Similar measures from China, the U.K., euro area, and Russia all dropped to record lows.

    The financial crisis has spiraled into a global economic downturn that’s hurt sales here and abroad, forcing manufacturers to pare production. Economists increasingly are projecting that the U.S. recession will be one of the most severe in the postwar era, putting pressure on policy makers to keep lowering interest rates and boost stimulus plans.

    “This downturn in the global economy is probably more synchronized than we have ever seen,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at credit Suisse Holdings in New York. Policy makers should “open the flood gates” to additional action, he said.

    The ISM index was projected to drop to 37, according to the median of 61 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 33.5 to 40.

    China’s purchasing managers’ index fell to a seasonally adjusted 38.8 from 44.6 in October, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported today. An index covering the 15 nations sharing the euro dropped to 35.6, the lowest since Markit Economics began the poll in 1998.

    Slump Overseas

    VTB Bank Europe’s index covering Russia fell to 39.8, and the U.K.’s Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply’s factory index was at 34.4, the least since the survey began in January 1992.

    The U.S. ISM’s purchasing managers’ gauge of new orders for factories decreased to 27.9, lowest since 1980, from 32.2 the prior month. The production measure fell to 31.5 from 34.1.

    The index of prices paid dropped to 25.5, the lowest level in six decades, from 37. Energy prices have plunged from their peaks in July, when a barrel of crude oil reached $147. Last week oil dropped below $50 a barrel, the lowest price since May 2005, according to the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    The employment index decreased to 34.2 from 34.6 in October. The economy has lost 1.2 million jobs so far this year.

    Orders from overseas continue to weaken as economies abroad contract. ISM’s export gauge was unchanged at 41. "(snip)

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    Default Re: this week is full of economic stats ...

    We only went down about 4% today. Still can't beat the US
    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
    - Dr John Zoidberg

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    Default Re: this week is full of economic stats ...

    here's more unwelcome news ...

    (snip)"From the Institute for Supply Management: November 2008 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

    "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 37.3 percent in November, 7.1 percentage points lower than the 44.4 percent registered in October, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 11.2 percentage points to 33 percent. The New Orders Index decreased 8.6 percentage points to 35.4 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 10.2 percentage points to 31.3 percent. These are the lowest levels for each of these indexes since they were first reported in 1997."

    There is much more in the press release, but basically the service economy is very weak. Here is a key sentence:

    Respondents' comments reflect concern about the time line for the economy to stabilize and the impact it is having on discretionary spending and employment.

    Discretionary spending always gets hit hard when households and businesses are uncertain about the future. And this is more evidence of a very weak employment report for November."(snip)

    from


    you can read the full report (which has some extremely interesting details) at

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    Default Re: this week is full of economic stats ...

    and yet more unwelcome news ...

    (snip)"From ADP: November Employment Report

    Nonfarm private employment decreased 250,000 from October to November 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from September to October was revised down from a decrease of 157,000 to a decrease of 179,000.

    Note: ADP only covers private employment and has been consistently more positive than the BLS report in recent months. See the report for some graphs of employment and a comparison to the BLS report.

    And from Rex Nutting at MarketWatch:
    Corporate layoffs surge to nearly 7-year high
    Led by massive cuts at Citigroup and other banks, major U.S. corporations announced 181,671 layoffs in November, the highest total in nearly seven years, according to a survey conducted by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas and released on Wednesday.
    ...
    The report comes two days before the Labor Department is scheduled to release its report on employment in November. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch expect payrolls to fall by 350,000, which would be the biggest decline since May 1980.
    So far in 2008, announced layoffs have totaled 1.06 million, up 46% from the same period a year ago.

    Also first time unemployment claims are running over 500 thousand per week - so all of the data suggests that the BLS employment report on Friday will show large job losses in November. "(snip)

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    Default Re: this week is full of economic stats ...

    and the hits just keep on coming !



    (snip)Skittish employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, dramatic proof the country is careening deeper into recession.
    The new figures, released by the Labor Department Friday, showed the crucial employment market deteriorating at an alarmingly rapid clip, and handed Americans some more grim news right before the holidays. The net loss of more than a half-million jobs was far worse than analysts expected.

    As companies throttled back hiring, the unemployment rate bolted from 6.5 percent in October to 6.7 percent last month, a 15-year high.

    "These numbers are shocking," said economist Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics Advisors. "Companies are sharply reacting to the economy's problems and slashing costs. They are not trying to ride it out."

    The unemployment rate would have moved even higher if not for the exodus of 422,000 people from the work force. Economists said many of those people probably abandoned their job searches out of sheer frustration. In November 2007, the jobless rate was at 4.7 percent.(snip)

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    Default Re: this week is full of economic stats ...

    see separate thread ///
    Last edited by Melonie; 12-05-2008 at 11:26 PM.

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