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Thread: 'Outrageous' 2009 predictions from Saxo Bank ...

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    Default 'Outrageous' 2009 predictions from Saxo Bank ...

    (snip)"Saxo Bank Predicts 2009 Will Hit all Economic Lows

    LONDON and COPENHAGEN, December 17, 2008 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ --

    Crude trading at $25. S&P 500 falls 50% to 500. China''s GDP growth falls to zero. EURUSD falls to 0.95. Italy to leave the ERM. If Saxo Bank''s 10 outrageous claims for the year ahead transpire, economic conditions will worsen dramatically in 2009. "The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can''t get much worse" says Chief Economist David Karsbol.

    The Copenhagen-based online trading and investment specialist''s predictions are an annual attempt to predict rare but high impact ''black swan'' events that are beyond the realm of normal market expectations. Compiled as part of the bank''s 2009 Outlook, the thought exercise this year present a dismal view of the global financial landscape.


    Outrageous Claims for 2009:

    1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.

    2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.

    3) S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.

    4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM completely.

    5) The AUDJPY will drop to 40. The decline in the commodities markets will affect the Australian economy.

    6) EURUSD will fall to 0.95 and then go to 1.30 as European bank balances are under tremendous pressure because of exposure to the faltering Eastern European markets and intra-European economic tensions.

    7) Chinese GDP growth drops to zero. The export driven sectors in the Chinese economy will be hurt significantly by the free-fall economic activity in the Global Trade and especially of the US.

    8 ) Pre-In''s First Out. Several of the Eastern European currencies currently pegged or semi-pegged to the EUR will be under increasing pressure due to capital outflows in 2009.

    9) Reuters/ Jefferies CRB Index to drop to 30% to 150. The Commodity bubble is bursting, with speculative excesses so large they have skewed the demand and supply statistics.

    10) 2009 will see the first Asian currencies to be pegged to CNY. Asian economies will increasingly look towards China to find new trade partners and scale down their hitherto US-centric agenda."(snip)

    from

    of course, Saxo is known for 'outrageous' predictions ... they batted about .500 in 2008

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    Default Re: 'Outrageous' 2009 predictions from Saxo Bank ...

    I'd suggest that a few of those are optimistic!!

    Happy hunting in 2009.

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    Default Re: 'Outrageous' 2009 predictions from Saxo Bank ...

    ^^^ thanks a lot Stuart ! 'Black Swans' do seem to be becoming much more plentiful lately LOL !!!

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    Default Re: 'Outrageous' 2009 predictions from Saxo Bank ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Outrageous Claims for 2009:

    1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.
    I'll buy this one. Ahmadinejad has been so hung up on developing nuclear weapons - and so busy belittling the resulting sanctions - that he's about to find out sanctions hurt the Iranian economy even more in a downturn.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.
    Yep - for all OPEC, etc, decree production cuts, individual nations will still continue to pump far more than their quotas because they need the income. (Hello - Russia, Iran, Venezuela to name but a few).

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM completely.
    The EU won't crack down - hell, they've even been unable to formally sign off their accounts for years because of the high level of fraud in the EU. And if they won't investigate fraud, what's a budget deficit between friends? On the other hand, I can see a few of the Mediterranean economies (riots in Greece anyone) and maybe a few of the Baltic states (Hi Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) joining Iceland as economic basket cases.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    6) EURUSD will fall to 0.95 and then go to 1.30 as European bank balances are under tremendous pressure because of exposure to the faltering Eastern European markets and intra-European economic tensions.
    Not to mention over exposure to South American markets. Some of our European banks make American banks seem sensible as far as dubious lending is concerned.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    7) Chinese GDP growth drops to zero. The export driven sectors in the Chinese economy will be hurt significantly by the free-fall economic activity in the Global Trade and especially of the US.
    I've always thought there's a bubble waiting to burst there. Now we'll see.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    8 ) Pre-In''s First Out. Several of the Eastern European currencies currently pegged or semi-pegged to the EUR will be under increasing pressure due to capital outflows in 2009.
    Indeed. Hi Hungary, Estonia, etc - watch this space.

    Phil.

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    Default Re: 'Outrageous' 2009 predictions from Saxo Bank ...

    hmmm
    melonie
    we dont know where the bottom of this recesion is yet hon!!!!!
    keep up the great work in this forum with your posts!!!
    wild slash

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    Default Re: 'Outrageous' 2009 predictions from Saxo Bank ...

    saxo bank have their hands on their dicks

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