Once again mainstream economists admit being wrong:
"The economy clearly has gotten substantially worse from the initial predictions that were being made, not just by the White House, but by all of the private sector," said Austan Goolsbee.
Once again mainstream economists admit being wrong:
"The economy clearly has gotten substantially worse from the initial predictions that were being made, not just by the White House, but by all of the private sector," said Austan Goolsbee.

^^^^Way to post part of the article- here's what you left out:
"But Friday's employment news was not all bad. Although the U.S. jobless rate continues to spike higher, the actual number of Americans who lost jobs during the month was the smallest since last September, the fourth consecutive month in which the pace of job losses slowed.
How can the unemployment rate continue to rise sharply while job losses are growing milder? Goolsbee says recent indicators showing improvement in some sectors of the U.S. economy are encouraging Americans who had stopped looking for work to re-enter the job market. With a larger pool of workers comes higher unemployment when the economy continues to shed jobs. "





^^^ This 'spin' was covered in a separate thread ... in this case the media 'spin' that 300,000+ additional unemployment insurance claims being made last week is 'good news' because the number was less than 'experts' expected. From an objective standpoint, it still means that 300,000+ Americans who had jobs 2 weeks ago are unemployed today.
And if you dig into the details of how this statistic is arrived at (i.e. birth / death model for businesses, 'normal' seasonal adjustments in employment levels, etc.) things get even more scary. Also, my personal favorite 'quirk' in these statistics is the failure of the official statistic to sort out how many private sector jobs were lost versus offsetting new hiring by the public sector ( in this case temporary employees of the US census bureau).





This is all so simple.
It was predicted a few months ago that it would get worse before it would get better -- due to the severity of the panic. It is doing just what they said it would. What they did not say is when the acceleration of job losses would begin to diminish. We may be seeing this deceleration now. One month does not make a trend.
I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.
Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.
NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.





^^^ actually, that isn't what's happening in mainstream financial media. Both Obama's speeches and selected media coverage are trying to portray a scenario where 'the worst is over' ! Guess what ? It ain't !





Certainly in the long term (potential inflation etc), it isn't. And for a while (a year or two) more jobs and businesses and (financial market) fortunes will be lost.
But that is not what deceleration is. If you are slowing your car to get of the freeway (decelerating) your car is still going forward but its speed is decreasing. When you've slowed almost enough you let off on the brake a little and the deceleration is not as strong but you are still decelerating and you are still going forward. Finally you reach a safe turning speed and you stop decerating and your car maintains a certain speed you've decreased.
I don't see where production is increasing, but I do see the stock market on an upswing. That is often a leading indicator of production (and jobs) increasing. So the economy is still decerating, but it is decelerating (getting worse) at a slower rate.
That's what my above post was saying, and that's what the market is saying too.
I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.
Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.
NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.





^^^ Only in terms of depreciating US dollars. If you measure the US stock market indexes in terms of Euros or Yen they aren't going anywhere ! The same is true regarding US dollar denominated prices of all other world market commodities, from copper to soybeans to fertilizer. Put another way, it was fairly routine for the Zimbabwe stock market indexes to increase by 10% per week. The only problem was that Zim dollar denominated prices for anything essential increased by 15% during the same week, while Zim dollar paychecks didn't increase at all !but I do see the stock market on an upswing. That is often a leading indicator of production (and jobs) increasing.
As to 'deceleration', this implies that something is still moving forward but at a slower pace. In point of fact the US economy is moving in 'reverse' i.e. economic growth is below zero and well into negative territory. Unemployment is still rising. Non-gov't subsidized business profits are still declining. Average working hours for those who still have jobs are still declining. 'Disposable' incomes (net of increasing state and local taxes) are declining. Non-gov't subsidized interest rates thus cost of capital are rising.




There's no rule that says once you decelerate (hit bottom), you automatically begin to re-accelerate. I have a feeling we are going to bounce along the floor for a year or so.
There's still a massive shadow inventory of foreclosures the banks are sitting on, which will continue to depress home prices until that inventory is absorbed inti the market. Good or bad, home value appreciation is a driving force behind people's perception of good economic times.





a picture is always worth 1000 words ( don't forget to hit the play button !)
We're already below the ground floor i.e. zero growth. The question now is whether we're in the second or third sub- basement, and how much longer it will take to reach the fourth sub-basement. The downward velocity of the 'elevator' may have slowed, but it's still headed down ! The economy will not be 'stabilized' until the 'elevator' returns to the ground floor i.e. zero growth ... and there are essentially zero signs of that happening (exclusive of increased gov't spending of borrowed money to increase public sector employment anyhow !). Staying in the fourth sub-basement without going even lower is a 'good' thing in comparison, but unlike mainstream media's attempted 'spin' it's not the same as returning to the ground floor of zero growth zero contraction.There's no rule that says once you decelerate (hit bottom), you automatically begin to re-accelerate. I have a feeling we are going to bounce along the floor for a year or so.
true ... but this week's Treasury bond auction ( necessary to start paying for Obama's stimulus projects) has driven the benchmark 10 year interest rate up a full percent from where it was earlier in the year. This is directly translating into higher mortgage interest rates thus lower home sale prices / fewer home sales / lower profits for mortgage and refi lenders etc. It's also resulting in major losses in the US dollar'e exchange rate / purchasing power, which causes the US dollar denominated price of food and energy to increase thus reducing 'disposable' incomes thus reducing mortgage approval rates / home sales even further going forward.There's still a massive shadow inventory of foreclosures the banks are sitting on, which will continue to depress home prices until that inventory is absorbed inti the market. Good or bad, home value appreciation is a driving force behind people's perception of good economic times.
~
Last edited by Melonie; 06-10-2009 at 08:10 AM.





Deceleration implies movement in any direction. I can decelerate my car while going in reverse. The degrading of the economy is slowing down. Some time before that while the economy was growing, it began to decelerate. Also... Unemployment and businesses are still going downhill, but the rate of going downhill is slowing.
Regarding housing now sitting unoccupied...once people start feeling better about their economies, that housing will slowly be repurchased, probably at a more reasonable rate. The public allowed housing prices to increase; they can force it to decrease. People have to learn the true value of things. "A fool and his money are soon parted" whoever said that is still right.
Last edited by threlayer; 06-10-2009 at 02:57 PM.
I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.
Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.
NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.



This place is not a forum for dancers, it is an economic think tank and online market analysis centre. We ought to be hiring ourselves out as contrarian macro economists...





We're all affected by economics. Most of this is relevant, aside from the asides.
I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.
Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.
NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.





Actually, exotic dancers share one peculiar attribute with professional athletes in that their 'peak earning years' come and go while they are still 25 years away from the legal retirement age. But exotic dancers do NOT share a related attribute in that professional athletes have typically earned enough money to hire experts to manage their investments / taxes / passive income whereas exotic dancers have not ... and thus must manage their own financial affairs.This place is not a forum for dancers, it is an economic think tank and online market analysis centre. We ought to be hiring ourselves out as contrarian macro economists
Being able to do this successfully for those 25 years ( and hopefully for the 10 years prior during which they were raking in and investing at a peak earning rate) makes the difference between being able to enter de-facto retirement at age 40 or whatever ( i.e. living off passive income) versus trading in their 5" heels for low heel waitress shoes if you catch my drift. Thus a lot of (current and former) exotic dancers take investing / money management / wealth preservation very seriously.
Not wanting to be a PIA on this matter but .... no it does not. Deceleration only applies to a reduction in velocity in the same direction as one was already moving. Once that velocity decelerates to zero, the immediate reversal in direction involves an acceleration in the opposite ( i.e. negative i.e. wrong) direction. As long as the negative velocity keeps increasing, negative acceleration is occurring. As with my prior example, once the negative velocity finally stops increasing (i.e. the elevator stops at the fourth sub-basement i.e. a 'bottoming out' occurs), and the negative acceleration stops, THEN we can talk about the possibility of some improvement (i.e. negative deceleration i.e. the elevator heading up towards the third sub-basement) taking place.Deceleration implies movement in any direction





They say its getting worse slower than it was previously. After it bottoms out, maybe it will start getting better.
I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.
Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.
NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.
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