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Thread: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

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    God/dess threlayer's Avatar
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    Default Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    WHY is it that in this forum the SKY is always FALLING?

    Can't we also talk about where money is to be made and where things are going RIGHT?

    Sometimes this forum just makes me want to dig a hole and pull the dirt in after me.
    Last edited by threlayer; 07-23-2009 at 07:43 PM.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    ^^^ OK I'll start. My Zijin Mining shares are up nicely over the past quarter ... thanks to copper commodity speculators and Chinese government subsidies / cheap coal fired power for refining operations ( the Chinese gov't owns 51% of this company ).

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    Also, if you are looking for companies that are growing as well as boosting profitability, look to India. While I don't personally own shares of InfoSys, I wish I had gotten into this company earlier because they are steadily gaining market share versus competing US software companies which have much higher costs of doing business ...

    (snip)"BANGALORE, JULY 12 Sky-high expectations and the London blasts took their toll on IT bellwether Infosys Technologies, as it announced its first quarter results on Tuesday. Revenues went up a whopping 36.52 per cent, while net profits zoomed 36.97 per cent, but shares in the second-largest outsourcing firm tumbled 4.1 per cent on BSE.

    Topping its own expectations, Infosys reported Q1 revenues of Rs 2,071.59 crore and a net profit after tax of 531.92 crore, but now remains glued to another modest forecast — of 26 to 27 per cent revenue growth — for this fiscal.

    ‘‘In marginally revising the revenue guidance upwards by $10 million for the current fiscal, last week’s London bomb blasts, which might affect business travel plans, have also been factored in,’’ said Infosys President and MD Nandan M. Nilekani.

    For Q2 ending September 30, Infosys expects income in the Rs 2,215 crore range, which places yearly growth expectations at 25.88 per cent.

    In the nine months ahead, Nasdaq-listed Infosys will focus on the rising wage bill, forex movement and volumes. Chief Financial Officer T.V. Mohandas Pai said margins had been maintained despite the salary hikes and depreciating Euro and Pound Sterling.

    ‘‘The movement in forex had a negative impact to the extent of Rs 14.9 crore in revenue for Q1,’’ he said.

    New business, which has continued to flow in, growth, and stable pricing will retain the highlight of attention, the company said.

    Infosys added 36 new clients including nine relationships now underway with global Fortune 500 firms from diverse sectors such as pharma, supermarkets, equipment manufacturing, automotive, utilities, insurance and banking in the US and Europe.

    ‘‘We have successfully completed the largest international equity offering from India of over a billion dollars. Our offering in Japan through the public offer without listing has enhanced Japanese investor interest in India and opened the market for Indian companies,’’ Pai said.

    Infosys will add 13,500 more employees globally this fiscal (year - sic), said COO and Deputy MD S. Gopalakrishnan."(snip)

    from


    In the way of commentary, the major stumbling block involved with a company like InfoSys is that many of their customers are paying in US dollars or UK pounds, thus the translated corporate income / profit in Rupees is subject to currency risk if / when the US dollar / UK pound are devalued.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    For general information, just how forthgcoming and reilable is the information one gets from foreign companies, particularly those in the Far East, and most particulaly China?

    Particularly their SEC discolsures and relations with security analysts.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    ^^^ I would definitely trust the Chinese industries to be able to undersell American and European competitors. After all, they have cheap coal fired electricity to power Chinese factories, $2 an hour labor rates with no benefits, essentially zero carbon taxes and environmental costs, a 50% partner in the form of the Chinese gov't who will probably do whatever is necessary to keep the Chinese company adequately financed / permanently 'solve' any labor, environmental or other problems, etc.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    So you cannot recommend any US company security at all?
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    I'll take a flyer on General Electric doing well in the near term future, for the following reasons ...

    - they are well positioned to cash in on gov't subsidy / green energy production tax credit based ongoing investment in wind farms. Regardless of what happens with future subsidies and tax credits, GE can book the initial sale of generators, transformers, switchgear etc.

    - they are well positioned to cash in on gov't run national health care, based on initial sales of new CT, MRI etc. diagnostic equipment to gov't owned hospitals. This will undoubtedly happen as an initial effort to deflect speculation that national health care automatically results in long waiting lists for access to a limited number of diagnostic facilities.

    - they are well positioned to cash in on gov't grants to utilities for electric power grid improvements ... which are likely to carry a 'US content' provision.

    - they have already outsourced all of their 'volume' manufacturing operations to low cost Mexico, from appliances to transformers

    - GE Capital is experiencing record 'spread' earnings, thanks to the gov'ts providing 'almost free' TARP money

    - GE's media division i.e. the _ _ NBC's continue to enjoy a gov't protected position on cable systems throughout the country ( despite comparatively low viewer levels )

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    also, there are a number of other US companies that are not so intimately linked to gov't spending policies that should do very well in the near future ...

    - bottom of the barrel retailers i.e. Dollar General, WalMart etc. will continue to gain market share as cash strapped American consumers are forced to stop shopping at mid-level retailers.

    - 'discount' auto parts and service businesses i.e. Pep Boys, Munroe etc. will gain market share both from 'axed' new car dealership service dep'ts and from the fact that Americans will be forced to keep servicing the older cars they are currently driving versus purchasing new cars to replace them.

    - bottom of the barrel retail food outlets, i.e. MacDonalds, KFC etc. will continue to gain market share as cash strapped Americans are forced to stop taking the family out to dinner at mid-level restaurant chains.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    What about cash strap manufacturers? ;-)

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    What about cash strap manufacturers?
    actually, while your humor is well aimed, there is some truthful irony ...

    - HandGun manufacturers i.e. Smith & Wesson are having a record sales year. And ammunition manufacturers are so busy that back-orders for larger caliber pistol ammo are stretched ahead for months

    - security camera manufacturers are having a record sales year ... although virtually all of this sort of equipment is imported rather than manufactured in the USA

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 07-11-2009 at 01:44 AM.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    I'm thinking other healthcare and end-of-care industry segments may do well too, at least those out of the way of government subsidized insurance plans. Like durable medical equipment, private respiratory services, pharmaceuticals, private old age home franchises, funeral home conglomerates, etc. Also DIY home repair/improvement chains.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    actually, while your humor is well aimed, there is some truthful irony ...

    - HandGun manufacturers i.e. Smith & Wesson are having a record sales year. And ammunition manufacturers are so busy that back-orders for larger caliber pistol ammo are stretched ahead for months

    - security camera manufacturers are having a record sales year ... although virtually all of this sort of equipment is imported rather than manufactured in the USA

    ~
    Actually run into the ammo thing myself. I've been looking for some 9MM for target practice for 5 months, and NEVER any in either Cabella's or Walmart. I've heard small locals are more likely, but haven't made it yet.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    I'm in software/hardware. and my company deals with a lot of small/mid-size hospitals. They are looking at quite a few IT initiatives now (virtual PCs, electronic records management, etc...), so I am expecting medical IT to remain pretty strong.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    I'm thinking other healthcare and end-of-care industry segments may do well too, at least those out of the way of government subsidized insurance plans
    I would argue that, unlike the 'cashing in on the initial sale' situation with GE medical and other durable medical equipment manufacturers, any 'service oriented' health care industry segment could find itself at the mercy of future gov't mandated 'reimbursement rates' which may or may not be profitable over the long term necessary to pay back initial investments (i.e. health care / funeral home franchises). Also, if California 'service oriented' health care service providers are any example (i.e. medical service agencies now being paid with state IOU's instead of cash, and being forced to borrow money to make payroll), there is a whole lot of 'new' risk involved for these service providers !


    I'm in software/hardware. and my company deals with a lot of small/mid-size hospitals. They are looking at quite a few IT initiatives now (virtual PCs, electronic records management, etc...), so I am expecting medical IT to remain pretty strong
    Agreed that this is a new 'niche' market, created by the US gov't stimulus mandate to create a computerized national medical database. This mandate also carries 'US content' provisions as part of the gov't stimulus package, which essentially protects US IT developers from foreign competition (i.e. InfoSys above) despite the higher cost of US software for as long as the gov't stimulus spending lasts.


    Also DIY home repair/improvement chains
    This appears to be true on sales of basic home repair / improvement materials ... as homeowners are unable to sell older homes at a price they are happy accepting, they tend to make relatively small investments in cosmetic improvements. They are also forced to make necessary repairs themselves rather than 'unloading' those problems on a new buyer.

    However, this appears to NOT be true in regard to big ticket capital goods sales i.e. appliances, nor in regard to big ticket remodeling material sales i.e. granite countertops. And while selling low priced items may keep parking lots full, selling big ticket items generates big profits (and vice versa). So Lowes and Home Depot may not be doing as well re profit margin as they are re sales volume.

    In fact, concern for the latter is the reason that a new 'National Energy Efficiency Building Code' provision has been included in the Carbon Tax bill recently passed by the US House of Reps. If passed as-is, this new code mandate would FORCE would-be US home sellers to make big ticket investments into triple glass windows, energy efficient new home appliances, insulated siding etc. in order to pass a new federal inspection requirement and receive a high enough energy efficiency rating for the gov't to approve the sale of the house.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Again not wanting to swing more than 50% towards the political, but if you re-read the above thread entries one common point becomes abundantly clear. Those US companies that are likely to remain profitable in the future are companies that have a strong link to US gov't mandates / stimulus spending / subsidy policy. Those US companies that are nowhere near as likely to remain profitable in the future are companies that do not have a strong link to US gov't policies, who must therefore compete head to head with much lower operating cost foreign competitors, and who will continue to see their operating cost differential increase versus foreign competitors as the result of new US gov't policies / taxes.



    Actually run into the ammo thing myself. I've been looking for some 9MM for target practice for 5 months, and NEVER any in either Cabella's or Walmart
    I'm told that this is the direct result of a 'quiet' gov't order that has stopped the sale of 'surplus' ammo by US military / national guard units back to the ammo manufacturers. So instead of 100% useful ammo being (re)sold into the private market after it becomes 1-2 years old, it is now destroyed. This in turn has left private sector ammo manufacturers with a huge 'new' demand for 'virgin' ammo that they are having difficulty meeting in addition to normal orders from the US military / national guard ( who obviously take priority on deliveries ). This is also the reason that you can find .22 ammo and other 'hunting' ammo calibres easily, but 9mm and other 'military' ammo calibres are as scarce as proverbial 'hen's teeth' !

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 07-11-2009 at 12:37 PM.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    I think generally what we're finding is that most all of the healthcare segments have been, over the years, trying to pull in more than their fair share of the financial pie. Just like the rest of us, I guess. As a result many people cannot afford much healthcare of insurance for the same reasons. As the US has become more circumspect about providing better human services, as part of a progressive attitude, we find ourselves in a tough position about the availability of the most important one of all, citizen's health. Maybe we're just trying to do too much for too many all around.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    most all of the healthcare segments have been, over the years, trying to pull in more than their fair share of the financial pie
    The flip side argument is that gov't intervention, via setting 'below market' reimbursement rates for medical services provided under medicaid / medicare (thus forcing doctors / hospitals to 'overcharge' private pay / private insurance patients to cover the shortfall), via mandating broad scope coverage for all state medical insurance (i.e. NY's mandates re psychiatric, addictions, etc. make all NY health insurance cost almost twice as much as narrower scope coverage allowed in other states), via allowing unbelievably high malpractice awards which result in unbelievably high malpractice insurance premiums etc., is the TRUE reason that health care costs for private pay / private insurance patients are as high as they are.

    Curiously, a recent study by the Census Bureau concluded that 8 million Americans do not carry health insurance by choice ! These 8 million are generally upper middle class or rich people under age 50 that are living in states with broad scope health insurance laws. Their accountants have run the numbers, and have found that the probable costs of paying out of pocket for needed medical services is far less expensive than the known costs of purchasing broad scope private health insurance.

    Another older study concluded that 50% of the total actual costs of providing medical care are in fact the result of just 4% of total patients. While the patient billing may not actually come out in the same proportions, this fact is extremely significant where national health care proposals and profitability of health care facilities are concerned. This is also the reason that an increasing number of doctors and non-gov't affiliated health care facilities are refusing to accept new medicaid / medicare patients ! This is also the reason that an increasing number of non-gov't affiliated health care facilities are turning away EMT transport patients.

    Of course, California's gov't contractor health providers are in a world of hurt right now ... because they must make their own payroll to their medical staff personnel in cash but they are receiving IOU's from the state of California. This essentially forces them to either borrow the money to make payroll and hold the IOU's until October, or to take a 10-20% 'loss' on the immediate sale of the IOU's now that banks have stopped accepting them at face value and the SEC has ruled that they are 'securities' which must be traded through licensed brokers / dealers.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 07-12-2009 at 02:03 PM.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    setting 'below market' reimbursement rates for medical services provided under medicaid / medicare
    To a large extent the high incomes obtained by MD's, diagnostic/treatment equipment manufacturers, pharmaceuticals etc. can be justified, but not entirely. However, the traditional cost burden currently is just too great for society, even without universal health coverage.

    Further the scare words, 'socialized medicine', are just tactics used by the medical and pharmaceutical establishment to scare us into maintaining the same old system, in spite of it's becoming socially non-viable. We need change, and they don't want it. So they are trying to scare us out of needed progressive improvements.

    ----
    mandating broad scope coverage (i.e., mandated 'riders')
    I would not presume that all states that provide subsidized medical insurance or develop their own cost-contained plans mandate the same riders. There are just too many politicians involved in these decisions. A plan like NYS's Family Health Plan or Healthy NY is not going to contain the same riders that another state will include -- that is for those states having such designed low cost health plans available. As I understand it, the Child Health Plans are federally sponsored and likely are federally-designed as well, a possible exception.

    ----
    unbelievably high malpractice awards
    Problem is that 'punishing' the wrongdoers in effect punishes the rest of us with perturbed cost experiences adversely affecting premiums. Liberal courts should realize that these ridiculous awards will inevitably come from the other insureds, as there is no law mandating that the money will come directly from the pockets of the wrongdoers (eg, incompetent workers). I almost wish there were, but then who would go into that profession? There are proposals to streamline healthcare procedures in a similar way that airline mistakes are taken care of. (* more on this if demanded)

    older study concluded that 50% of the total actual costs of providing medical care are in fact the result of just 4% of total patients
    One cost of not having insurance is such that if/when you do get it, it may well be that many nascent or tolerated infirmities have built up to near disasters that must be treated, expensively. This is one reason for a 6 (or so) month moratirium on previous diagnoses for the uninsured enrolling in commercial plans, as unfair as that may seem to be. The actuaries have been saying for many years in all insurance segments that 80% of the costs (they call it experience) are attributed to 20% of the customers. I've checked this out, and it seems to be a truism; the ~50/~4 is somewhere in the demand curve too. This is merely the way premiums are designed and is already built into the system. It is true whether or not medicaid/medicare is factored into the studies. I can provide anecdotes for this.
    Last edited by threlayer; 07-13-2009 at 07:57 PM.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    ^^^ be that as it may, everything ultimately boils down to an equation of fees versus costs of service ... with the end result depending heavily on gov't mandates / policies.

    Back on topic, this morning's big news item is the Goldman Sachs profit report ... which is speculated to be another record. This is fairly easy to understand given GS's ability to borrow TARP money at essentially zero cost and in turn loan it out again at a fat interest rate 'spread'. This is arguably a 'poster boy' example of US gov't policy choosing a 'winner' ... at the potential expense of US taxpayers.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    I hope they have paid back their loans. Their payroll is nearly 1 million per employee.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    After going through bankruptcy, GM is now in a good position to rebound.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/20090...readytorebound

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    ^^ You see, they could have done that all by themselves and kept some public and government respect. Why? Procrastination, disbelief, lack of realism, inertia<---all those
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    ^^^ actually two ingredients were previously missing ... union concessions re outrageously generous benefits, and a court ruling / precedent making it 'legal' to kick secured bondholders out of their priority position to recover capital from liquidation of assets (which was established during the Chrysler bankruptcy proceedings). Lacking either of these elements, GM or Chrysler could never have emerged from bankruptcy as an economically viable company that still owned enough unencumbered assets (i.e. factories and equipment) to operate.

    As discussed in other threads, the precedent regarding the kicking to the ground of previously 'secured' bondholders is going to have profound consequences on every American business and industry going forward. If potential capital investors have no real future security / priority in recovering their capital if the business fails, they are going to be far more reluctant to put up that capital. And those that ARE still willing will demand comparatively high interest rates to compensate for their now elevated risk of loss. This will make it far more difficult and expensive for US businesses to modernize / expand when the economy finally turns for the better. The exception of course will be US businesses that are tied to gov't subsidized / favored product niches, where such funding will come from US taxpayers instead of private investors.
    Last edited by Melonie; 07-16-2009 at 04:03 AM.

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    ASX200 was back above 4000 today. Cha cha cha.
    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
    - Dr John Zoidberg

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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    After going through bankruptcy, GM is now in a good position to rebound.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/20090...readytorebound
    Think British Leyland rather than Chrysler of the 1970s and early 80s. Because of the terrible ruling that allowed unsecured creditors, the unions, to move ahead of secured ones, the bond holders, GM will likely be starved of debt financing for a long time. (For that matter much of US business is now going to have a hard time borrowing money.) That means that GM for the foreseeable future is a ward of the US Treasury, much like British Leyland was a ward of the British Treasury.

    I don't know if GM was salvageable in 2009. But, if it was, the only way to do it was to treat the bond holders fairly. That was not done. Now, damage has been done not just to GM, its dealers, employees, suppliers and customers, but damage has been done to the economy as a whole. The decisions in the GM case will cause a contraction in the amount of debt financing available to all businesses and make that financing more expensive where it is available. What we have done is delay the inevitable with GM and make our own and the world's economic recovery less likely to happen in a timely manner. We have committed the government to much more borrowing and we have made a terrible decision that will lead to long term inflation.

    Z

  25. #25
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    Default Re: Why So Many Bad News Threads?

    FORD avoided it because they foresaw the problem coming and reacted to it. I think that is why Bill Ford resigned his CEO position (don't know the BoD interaction there) in favor of someone who had the experience/ability to deal with that.

    My point is that Ford avoided it and GM and C walked right into it. I doubt the unions made more concessions for Ford than they ultimately had to for the other two. I suppose this could be a problem for them in the near future, along with the help that the two got from the Fed. Except that they are ahead in product planning and design.

    Pricing may be another issue: the Fusion Hybrid (et al) is getting really good reviews, but it is priced above the Prius. also moving that technology to lower-priced cars may be problemmatic for Ford; for one thing Toyota has quite an experience advantage in hybrids and may be hurting less.

    Example of a comparison and this.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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