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Thread: Is the US economy close to hitting 'bottom' ?

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Is the US economy close to hitting 'bottom' ?

    This includes some heavy duty revalations ....



    (snip)"Most experts and commentators are of the view that the worst of the US recession may be over by year's end. My own prediction is for an illusory recovery of government-constructed economic indicators, but nothing more than that.

    It is held by most experts that a recession is typically set in motion by various unpredictable shocks. For instance, it is argued that the present recession was triggered by the crisis in the real estate market. Since, as a rule, various shocks tend to weaken consumer demand, it is the role of the central bank and the government to replace this shortfall in demand by boosting monetary pumping and government outlays. Thus, the central bank and the government counter the effects of various negative shocks by means of monetary and fiscal stimulus policies.

    The monetary and fiscal stimulus is aimed at boosting overall expenditure in the economy, which (it is believed) is the key for economic growth. On this logic, spending by one individual becomes the income for another.

    Following this way of thinking, since September 2007 the US central bank has aggressively lowered its interest rates. The federal funds rate target was lowered from 5.25% in August 2007 to almost zero at present. The yearly rate of growth of the Fed's balance sheet (that is, the pace of monetary pumping) jumped from 4% in September 2007 to 152% by December 2008.

    With respect to the fiscal stimulus, aggressive government spending has resulted in a massive deficit. For the first nine months of fiscal year 2009, the budget deficit stood at $1.086 trillion. That compares with a shortfall of $285.85 billion in the comparable year-ago period. The twelve-month moving average of the budget had a deficit of $105 billion in June – the largest deficit since 1960."(snip)

    (snip)Once the state of an economy is assessed in terms of GDP, it is not surprising that the central bank appears to be able to counter any recessionary effects that emerge. By pushing more money into the economy, the central bank's actions will appear to be effective, since GDP will show a positive response to this pumping, following a time lag.

    Even if one were to accept that GDP depicts a well-defined "economy," there is still a problem as to why recessions are of a recurring nature. Does it make sense that unconnected, various shocks cause this repetitive occurrence of recessions? Surely there must be a mechanism here that gives rise to this repetitive occurrence?

    Also, how can an increase in demand boost economic growth? After all, in order to be able to generate an increase in the output of goods and services, there must be an increase in various means to support the increase in the production of goods.

    If the key to economic growth is an increase in demand, then poverty world-wide would have been eradicated a long time ago. Every central bank in the world could have generated massive demand by means of monetary pumping, which according to popular thinking would have generated massive economic growth. That this is not the case – have a look at Zimbabwe – should raise questions regarding the soundness of this popular way of thinking."(snip)

    (snip)"From what we have shown, we can conclude that recessions are essentially the liquidation of economic activities that were created and sustained by the loose monetary policy of the central bank. The process of a bust is set in motion when the central bank reverses its earlier loose stance.

    Having established this, we must investigate why recessions are recurrent. The reason for this is that the central bank's ongoing policies are aimed at fixing the unintended consequences arising from its earlier attempts to stabilize the economy — or rather, what it believes to be the measure of the economy: the GDP. On account of the time lag between changes in money supply to changes in GDP, the central bank is forced to respond to the effects of its own previous monetary policies. These responses to the effects of past policies give rise to fluctuations in the rate of growth of the money supply and, in turn, lead to recurrent boom-bust cycles."(snip)

    (snip)"Most experts are of the view that the worst of the US recession may be over by year's end. Common opinion holds that the key reason for the expected turnaround is the positive effect that the policies of the government and Fed have on various economic indicators. The pace of monetary pumping by the US central bank jumped from 4% in September 2007 to 152% by December 2008. With respect to fiscal stimulus, aggressive government spending has resulted in a record deficit of over one trillion dollars in the first nine months of fiscal year 2009. Careful examination shows that, rather than protecting the economy, it is loose monetary policies that are the key source of boom-bust economic cycles. Loose Fed and government fiscal policies have only weakened the wealth generators' ability to grow the economy. Aggressive policies have inflicted severe damage to the sources of funding that support real economic growth. Hence, we are doubtful that the US economy is on the verge of a solid economic recovery. On account of massive monetary pumping, the growth in momentum of various key economic data is likely to strengthen in the months ahead. We maintain this may prompt Fed policy makers to consider curtailing the pace of monetary pumping, and we suggest that this will set in motion a new economic bust."(snip)

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    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is the US economy close to hitting 'bottom' ?

    Today on CSPAN Bernenke flat out said he plans on raising interest rates sometime in the future to protect against inflation.

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    Default Re: Is the US economy close to hitting 'bottom' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Deogol View Post
    Today on CSPAN Bernenke flat out said he plans on raising interest rates sometime in the future to protect against inflation.
    Very interesting. I'll search for his statements. But did he clarify exactly when "sometime in the future" is?

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    Default Re: Is the US economy close to hitting 'bottom' ?

    Bernake is such a bore! Glad someone else can watch without falling asleep! I'm not surprised by this, it's not like they can get any lower! Does it really matter though if the banks won't grant credit to Bill Gates?
    XoXo Gia
    Danielle Fishell (the Dish): "If the Super-Star thing doesn't work out, Gia makes a great stripper name"

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    Duh Re: Is the US economy close to hitting 'bottom' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Deogol View Post
    Today on CSPAN Bernenke flat out said he plans on raising interest rates sometime in the future to protect against inflation.
    "Bless his heart."

    This only raises the misery index. Can't he, or they, come up with something that actually WORKS?
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Is the US economy close to hitting 'bottom' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by threlayer View Post
    "Bless his heart."

    This only raises the misery index. Can't he, or they, come up with something that actually WORKS?
    The simple truth is, if Obama-care passes piled on top of Obama's so called back loaded stimulus plan, inflation will result. Rather significant inflation. Bernanke is right, he will have to raise interest rates to combat it. The better course would be to quickly unwind the stimulus plan, reduce government spending in all areas of the budget beginning with the budget that begins in September 2010 and table healthcare reform. Those actions alone would turn the debt curve in the right direction and probably head off a major dose of inflation.

    HTH
    Z

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