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Thread: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

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    Senior Member Michelle Chanel's Avatar
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    Dizzy Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    The Fed released a report Wednesday that shows the economy is finally beginning to show signs of stabilizing in some of the country, bolstering hopes of a broader-based recovery this year.Please click on the link below.

    http://www.wbaltv.com/money/20211736/detail.html?treets=bal&tml=bal_natlbreak&ts=T&tmi= bal_natlbreak_1_01170107292009

    What do you guys think?

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    based on subjective anecdotal evidence, im going to say yes. Business at my club is up and it seems like business in general is up at bars etc. and people are fretting less about the economy. I hear less talk of the recession etc... so either people are now accustomed enough to it that they are forgetting or their financial problems are subsiding. Or maybe they are just tired of bitching.

    as for an objective opinion, i dont consider myself knowledgeable enough in economics to contribute anything of value.
    The best thing i have heard in a strip club to date:
    customer: we should get married right now! we should get a shotgun marriage!
    me: uhh... i think you are misunderstanding what a shotgun marriage means. A shotgun marriage means you knock me up and my daddy shows up at your door with a gun and forces you to marry me and raise the baby. You mean elope.
    customer: hmm... nah actually i will take the shotgun marriage. At least then we would be having sex.


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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    I'm definitely starting to see a difference where I am, in a good way!
    Quote Originally Posted by AznExtasy View Post
    LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    You can say that again.. not just on here but men in general. Guys are so damn lame, the only way they can halfway make up for it is by opening their wallets.

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Well the dow is recovering slightly but where I am housing and unemployment are still crapped out. Honestly I'm personally not too upset about the housing as I hope to buy as soon as can find a 9-5 with the degree I get on Monday!
    XoXo Gia
    Danielle Fishell (the Dish): "If the Super-Star thing doesn't work out, Gia makes a great stripper name"

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    I would speculate that in certain places the US economy has the 'appearance' of improving slightly, but that economic fundamentals actually continue to get worse.







    As far as regional differences, there are a number of areas where some big 'shoes' have yet to 'drop'. For example, states like California, New York, New Jersey etc. will all be enacting new taxes in response to deep state budget deficits ... which will suck yet more money out of state businesses and individuals that cannot be spent on 'discretionary' items like bar bills and lap dances. New York passed it's new budget in April, and the new taxes are just now taking effect. Most other states are just now passing budgets, with their new taxes to take effect in September / October. From this standpoint, low tax states like Texas are likely to fare far better.

    I would also point out that the Fed's Beige Book report, your news link, and countless other stories in the mainstream financial press all base their conclusion on the fact that the rate of decline is slowing. Is this good news ? Well, from a relative standpoint, a slower decline isn't as bad as a rapid decline. But unlike the conclusion the rose colored news commentators attempt to portray, a slow decline is still a decline ! Fewer people will have jobs next month than this month. People who do still have jobs next month will have less money to spend on 'discretionary' items because their working hours and/or 'after tax' paycheck is shrinking. If you happen to be in a 'pocket' of localized improvement, enjoy it while it lasts.

    As to recent US stock market improvement ...

    (snip)"It is my belief that short term investing around the sectors that the government is trying to support may continue to be profitable in the coming weeks. Specifically, investigating trades that involve the auto industry, energy, government debt, US currency, or housing may be incredibly beneficial in the near term. Remember though bulls and bears, don't look past point number 10 as this government plan is unsustainable into the future; it will fall apart eventually"(snip)

    ... in other words, your tax money at work !

    !
    Last edited by Melonie; 07-30-2009 at 02:11 AM.

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Consider the source. They also told you subprime was contained and would be at most 100 billion in losses. People believed that as well and bought those dips.

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gia2608 View Post
    Well the dow is recovering slightly but where I am housing and unemployment are still crapped out. Honestly I'm personally not too upset about the housing as I hope to buy as soon as can find a 9-5 with the degree I get on Monday!
    Congratulation graduate! (If you're still dancing, I think the cap and g-string make a hot outfit!)

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Short term, I think there will be some improvement. Long term, I think there will be a long period of stagflation.

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    just off the Bloomberg wire ...



    (snip)Recession Worse Than Prior Estimates, Revisions Show

    July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The first 12 months of the U.S. recession saw the economy shrink more than twice as much as previously estimated, reflecting even bigger declines in consumer spending and housing, revised figures showed.

    The world’s largest economy contracted 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the last three months of 2008, compared with the 0.8 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.

    “The current downturn beginning in 2008 is more pronounced,” Steven Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, said in a press briefing this week. The revisions were in line with past experience in which initial figures tended to underestimate the severity of contractions during their early stages, he said. "(snip)

    (snip)"Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, decreased 1.8 percent in last year’s fourth quarter from the same period in 2007, exceeding the prior estimate of a 1.5 percent drop. Purchases also began sinking sooner than previously projected, registering their first decline at the start of 2008 rather than in the second half.

    Treasuries headed higher after the report, while stock- index futures declined. Benchmark 10-year note yields were at 3.58 percent at 8:51 a.m. in New York, from 3.61 percent late yesterday. Contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index were down 0.3 percent at 979.

    Residential construction fell 21 percent during the period, almost 2 percentage points more than previously reported, aggravating what was already the worst slump since the Great Depression.

    The Commerce Department also reported today that the economy contracted at a 1 percent annual rate from April through June after shrinking at a 6.4 percent pace in the first quarter, the most since 1982. The decline in the first three months of the year was previously reported as 5.5 percent. "(snip)

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    As far as I can tell KC is still getting worse. Slowly, suck suck suck.

    - congrats on graduating!

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Yes and no. Yes, because I'm seeing many more jobs listed. No, because most of these jobs are part time. However, most of these jobs are newly created jobs, so maybe they will become fulltime and then more will be working.

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?


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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gia2608 View Post
    Well the dow is recovering slightly but where I am housing and unemployment are still crapped out. Honestly I'm personally not too upset about the housing as I hope to buy as soon as can find a 9-5 with the degree I get on Monday!
    Hey, awesome. Congrats
    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Not in Arizona. Not at all. I wonder if it is state specific where these little pick-ups are happening?

    It actually seems as if it gets worse every day here. My husband works at a bar and he says that it's just been getting worse and worse. It was so dead last Saturday they actually closed an hour early. I talked to him a few hours ago and he was bored to tears at work tonight too.

    I also am working in a salon right now and today, being a Saturday and is traditonally the busiest day of the week for the beauty industry....it was dead. A friend of mine who works in another beauty shop across town said it had been that way all week for her.

    Summers are normally "off season" for Arizona, but never have I seen it this bad.

    Jobs continue to dwindle here, it seems every time I turn around we have another friend losing a good job. Our good friend, C, had a job working with big construction equipment for years....his hours got cut in half and then he was offocially laid off last week. He's one person we never thought we'd see struggle. It's so weird to listen to him and his wife talk about money isues....it's just sad.

    Does anyone have any insight about what states/cities are experiencing this little "boom" and which ones are continuing on the path of destruction???

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    well, a curious pattern was discovered regarding the disbursement of stimulus money ... which has little or nothing to do with the local degree of economic stress !



    (snip)"ANALYSIS: States Hit Hardest by Recession Get Least Stimulus Money

    The stimulus bill "includes help for those hardest hit by our economic crisis," President Obama promised when he signed the bill into law on Feb. 17. "As a whole, this plan will help poor and working Americans."

    But FOXNews.com has analyzed data tracking how the stimulus money is being given out across the 50 states and the District of Columbia, and it has found a perverse pattern: the states hardest hit by the recession received the least money. States with higher bankruptcy, foreclosure and unemployment rates got less money. And higher income states received more.

    The transfers to the states having the least problems are large. Even after accounting for other factors, each $1,000 in a state's per capita income means that the state got $21 more per capita in stimulus funds. With a spread of almost $38,000 in per-person income between the top and bottom states, this has a sizable impact. High-income states get considerably more stimulus money.

    States with higher bankruptcy rates got a lot less, not more, money — roughly $86 less per person for each percentage point increase in the state's bankruptcy rate. States with higher foreclosure rates were treated very similarly, losing $82 per person for each one percentage point more of the people suffering foreclosures. (snip)

    (snip)To account for political considerations in how the money was distributed, Obama's share of the two-person vote in a state was also included. Concerns about the stimulus being used to reward supporters has already been noted in the press.

    Politico reported on June 5 that the “Stimulus tour” — visits by Mr. Obama and other administration officials “across the country to tout the massive spending program or hand out stimulus cash to grateful local officials” — overwhelmingly took place in states that voted for Obama: “52 of the 66 events were in states that backed Obama.” The other 14 events were in states that Obama lost only narrowly. A new study released by USA Today also finds that counties that voted for Obama received about twice as much stimulus money per capita as those that voted for McCain.(snip)



    (snip)Billions in aid go to areas that backed Obama in '08

    WASHINGTON — Billions of dollars in federal aid delivered directly to the local level to help revive the economy have gone overwhelmingly to places that supported President Obama in last year's presidential election.
    That aid — about $17 billion — is the first piece of the administration's massive stimulus package that can be tracked locally. Much of it has followed a well-worn path to places that regularly collect a bigger share of federal grants and contracts, guided by formulas that have been in place for decades and leave little room for manipulation. (snip)

    (snip)The reports show the 872 counties that supported Obama received about $69 per person, on average. The 2,234 that supported McCain received about $34. (snip)

    (snip)The imbalance didn't start with the stimulus. From 2005 through 2007, the counties that later voted for Obama collected about 50% more government aid than those that supported McCain, according to spending reports from the U.S. Census Bureau. USA TODAY's review did not include Alaska, which does not report its election results by county."(snip)

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Here's an interesting line from the FOX report:
    "...Two comments should be raised about the figures. Alaska has by far the highest stimulus spending per capita of any state, more than twice the second highest state, Arizona ($80..."

    Gee, the top 2 states are home to both Republican candidates. And to help their POV FOX decided to not include Alaska in the equation. Typical FOX bias. They did leave in Texas which refused $555 mil in stimulus funds, so per capita spending there is skewed, but not by the president's hand.

    Here's something else you left out:

    "...Breaking down the data by type of spending shows that money for infrastructure was much more likely than social spending to go to high-income states with low bankruptcy and foreclosure rates..."

    High income states tend to be states with large urban areas. Areas in need of more infrastructure maintainence. FOX fails to provide per capita data for social spending, the type most needed by those in economic distress, apparently despite having that info available.

    As for the "Stimulus Tour", I doubt Obama was invited by any Republican govs to hand over those giant cardboard checks, but you can find video of Jindahl happily distributing that money in similar ceremonies, despite railing against such federal help.

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    ^^^ actually Fox DID include Alaska in their calculation, but (correctly) pro-rated the impact of higher statistical per-capita spending against a comparatively tiny population and a comparatively tiny number of stimulus dollars. Like other states with tiny populations (like Wyoming) of well under 1 million state citizens, the addition or subtraction of just one (comparatively small by national standards) $10 million stimulus project could skew the per-capita spending numbers all over the place. In contrast, the per capita spending figures for much larger states could be hugely innacurate as well i.e. areas such as Texas and California and New York, simply because there is no accurate tally of how many 'legal' state citizens have moved out or how many 'illegal' state citizens have moved in to arrive at the per-capita denominator.

    High income states tend to be states with large urban areas. Areas in need of more infrastructure maintainence
    Not true for interstate highway maintenance. Not true for rail track maintenance. Not true for military base projects. Definitely IS true for 'subways', but then not all cities have them. Also true for most public building projects.

    But for a fact, much of the stimulus money being spent in / by big cities ( or at least in the name of big cities ) is being spent on school systems, or social welfare benefits, or on de-facto reductions in state gov't debt (i.e. states spending federal stimulus money on anything and everything of their choosing instead of states borrowing and spending even more state money via new muni bond issues).

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 08-02-2009 at 05:22 PM.

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Continuing on the theme of lies, damn lies, and statistics, consider the following 'quirky methodology' comments on how the negative 1% GDP revision was officially calculated ...



    (snip)"I noted earlier that the oddity of imports versus exports calculation would produce a positive contribution to GDP. Let’s look at the details of this, and find a way to understand what this means.

    First, off conceptualize the difference between what imports and exports are. At the most basic level, Imports represent our consumption of overseas production, i.e., We buy what they make.

    Exports are where overseas consumers purchase our production, i.e., They buy what we make.

    What were the specifics of the GDP data regarding import/export?

    -Real imports of goods and services decreased 15.1%

    -Real exports of goods and services decreased 7.0%

    So in Q2, both consumption by us of overseas goods and services and by them of US made goods and serivces declined significantly.

    The Differential between imports and exports — who dropped fastest — was the key to this quarter’s GDP data.

    According to Bloomberg, Decreasing Exports subtracted 0.76% from GDP. At the same time, falling Imports added 2.14%. Net contribution of the fact that Imports are free falling twice as fast as Exports are = 1.38%.

    If they were both falling at the same rate — if Europe and Asia’s consumers were hurting as much as ours – GDP would have been -2.38%.

    If it seems weird to you that the ratio of domestic and overseas shrinking economies and their reduced consumption somehow turned into a positive GDP contributor, well, welcome to the wonderful world of government statistics."(snip)

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Does anyone have any insight about what states/cities are experiencing this little "boom" and which ones are continuing on the path of destruction???
    the Philly Fed actually arranged this state by state economic activity data into a picture !


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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    How does this information mesh with the well-publicized statements that the stimulus is less than a quarter spent now?

    Some reports of industry segment production gain are circulating which to an extent is a do-it-yourself stimulus. I've noted a lot more than average road reconstruction here but little else directly tied.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    ^^^ I don't know what industry segment you're talking about ? Unionized federal employees maybe ?



    (snip)"The Federal Reserve reported:

    Industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in June after having fallen 1.2 percent in May. For the second quarter as a whole, output fell at an annual rate of 11.6 percent, a more moderate contraction than in the first quarter, when output fell 19.1 percent. Manufacturing output moved down 0.6 percent in June, with declines at both durable and nondurable goods producers. ... The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined in June to 68.0 percent, a level 12.9 percentage points below its average for 1972-2008. Prior to the current recession, the low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967, was 70.9 percent in December 1982. (snip)


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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ I don't know what industry segment you're talking about ? Unionized federal employees maybe ?

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...-capacity.html

    (snip)"The Federal Reserve reported:

    Industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in June after having fallen 1.2 percent in May. For the second quarter as a whole, output fell at an annual rate of 11.6 percent, a more moderate contraction than in the first quarter, when output fell 19.1 percent. Manufacturing output moved down 0.6 percent in June, with declines at both durable and nondurable goods producers. ... The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined in June to 68.0 percent, a level 12.9 percentage points below its average for 1972-2008. Prior to the current recession, the low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967, was 70.9 percent in December 1982. (snip)

    Then what the hell was Kudlow talking about yesterday ? He said that these indicators were trending UP ! N.B. He was using PRIVATE survey organizations and NOT the Fed.

    As much as I like Larry, I think he's been overly optimistic and is going to totally miss the next crash ( probably early 2011 ) just as he missed the last one.

    I do know this: Adjusted Federal Revenues have seen their biggest decline since the Great Depression.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 08-04-2009 at 07:18 AM.

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Then what the hell was Kudlow talking about yesterday ? He said that these indicators were trending UP ! N.B. He was using PRIVATE survey organizations and NOT the Fed.

    As much as I like Larry, I think he's been overly optimistic and is going to totally miss the next crash ( probably early 2011 ) just as he missed the last one.

    I do know this: Adjusted Federal Revenues have seen their biggest decline since the Great Depression.
    Kudlow is always optimistic. Sometimes I think he refuses to see what is going on or is being paid to be a cheerleader. I think a lot of the statistics he looks at DO NOT reflect a changing world they are meant to describe. This is how he can say "this is great" and the rest of the nation is looking at him shaking their heads.

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    more inspiring news ...



    (snip)The S&P 500 retreated from its highest level in nine months as eight out of its 10 main industry groups slipped. Procter & Gamble Co., the world’s largest household-products maker, dropped 3.4 percent after profit fell on declines in sales of higher-priced skin care and detergents.

    The S&P 500 slipped 0.5 percent to 1,001.05 as of 9:57 a.m. in New York. The gauge climbed yesterday to 0.1 point below its close on Nov. 4, the day President Barack Obama was elected. The Dow fell 52.9 points, or 0.6 percent, to 9,267.29.

    “Data is less bad, but it’s still going to be weak,” said Tim Hartzell, who manages $300 million as chief investment officer for Houston-based Sequent Asset Management. “The talk is all about the smaller companies that are now into that next phase of downsizing. That’s what we have to go through. There’s going to be some smaller and midsize companies that have to go out of business to reduce capacity.”

    Yesterday’s advance pushed the valuation of the S&P 500 to about 17.5 times its companies’ earnings over the past 12 months, the highest level since May 2008, according to daily data compiled by Bloomberg. Since reaching a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, the S&P 500 has rebounded 49 percent, the steepest rally since the 1930s.

    ADP Jobs Report

    Data from ADP Employer Services showed companies cut 371,000 workers from payrolls in July, more than the average estimate of 350,000 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The figures from the world’s largest payroll processor have shown declines in employment since February 2008.

    Procter & Gamble dropped 3.4 percent to $53.60 after saying profit net income for the period ended June 30 dropped to $2.47 billion, or 80 cents share, from $3.02 billion, or 92 cents, a year earlier. (snip)

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    Default Re: Economy getting Better, Yes or No?

    I've been following business news lately too. You are only reporting the bad sides of the news. People have been shfting to generic products instead of premium priced P&G products. But they have still been buying products.

    You may choose to disbelieve the good side of the news, but there is some good news floating around. If there weren't, for example, then why has the market been on the upswing this last month?
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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