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Thread: chart of the week - percentage of US population that is actually employed ...

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    Default chart of the week - percentage of US population that is actually employed ...



    (snip)"the employment-to-population ratio gives a more accurate picture of the slack in the labour market and the hidden secret in today’s [ official gov't Unemployment - sic ] report was that this metric slid to a 25-year low of 59.4% from 59.5% in June and 61.0% at the turn of the year. Of those unemployed, 33.8% of them have been unemployed now for over 27 weeks — a record amount (was at 29.0% in June and was at 17.5% at the start of this recession)."(snip)

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    Default Re: chart of the week - percentage of US population that is actually employed ...

    Does not look healthy. I'm sure most of the G8 nations are in similar situations though. Won't be long and there won't be any jobs in the 'West' anyway...

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    Default Re: chart of the week - percentage of US population that is actually employed ...

    ^^^ yes there will be ... once the US dollar is devalued to the point where the US$7.50 minimum wage is again equal to the 15 Yuan ( presently = $US2.00 ) unskilled wage in China or the 25000 Dong ( presently = $US 1.50) unskilled wage in Vietnam !

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    Default Re: chart of the week - percentage of US population that is actually employed ...

    Looking at that chart makes me wonder why employment has been so high as of late? My guess is that a large percentage of baby boomers were in their working years during the peak employment years on the chart: 1979-2005. Now we have a population that is split in age demographic, there is a huge percentage of young people not yet in the work force and baby boomers are beginning to retire.

    If the labor pool continues to decline, wages will inevitably increase in the law of supply and demand. Especially considering the sudden and rapid decline in immigrant labor over the past 2 years, the increase in wages and jobs should make a nice rebound over the next 10 years or so. As wages go higher, the number of people who have to work will decrease, with more stay at home moms/dads, the labor force will look more like it did in the 1950's and 1960's.


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    Default Re: chart of the week - percentage of US population that is actually employed ...

    If the labor pool continues to decline, wages will inevitably increase in the law of supply and demand. Especially considering the sudden and rapid decline in immigrant labor over the past 2 years, the increase in wages and jobs should make a nice rebound over the next 10 years or so.
    ^^^ this assumption only held true when the US economy was a 'closed system'. Arguably, in today's 'global economy' when labor becomes more expensive in one area, those who require the labor often move their operations to countries where the labor is 'cheaper'. This is particularly the case when moving operations to those countries also means 'cheaper' energy costs, cheaper environmental / safety compliance costs, cheaper tax rates etc.

    Yes there are obviously some businesses whose need for 'unskilled' labor can't be transplanted i.e. restaurants, janitorial, retail etc. and these businesses will be forced to pay higher wage rates ( in exchange for charging customers higher prices ). But many US businesses wno needs for 'unskilled' labor ARE transplantable to a foreign country i.e. vegetable farming ( pun intended ), call centers, what remains of textile etc. and pressure to pay higher US wages will simply cause these US businesses to become non-US businesses.

    Yes retiring baby-boomers are a factor in an increased percentage of the total US population being unemployed. But so far they constitute a very small fraction. More applicable is the fact that total employment of US engineers and architects has declined by 10% over the past year (with some portion of US demand being permanently eliminated and some of the slack being taken up by outsourcing). More applicable is the fact that total employment of unionized manufacturing workers has declined by 10% over the past year (with some portion of US demand being permanently eliminated and some of the slack being taken up by outsourcing / imported products). Also applicable is the fact that significant numbers of new high school graduates and college graduates are attempting to enter the US workforce, with little opportunity being available.

    Another growing fraction are unemployed people who are 'content' to remain unemployed ! By this I mean those low skill unemployed Americans whose present standard of living is being maintained by unemployment checks and social welfare programs - people who have found that this standard of living isn't much different than their previous standard of living which was based on a $10 - $12 an hour job. And as long as the gov't continues to send out unemployment checks and food stamps, there will be zero motivation for these people to seek / accept work which $10 an hour !

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    Default Re: chart of the week - percentage of US population that is actually employed ...

    I have to agree with you about the outsourcing of some jobs, like call centers and and some types of engineering. But there is much to be said to pay a little extra for our home grown foods and food manufacturing. There have been enough problems with tainted food supply over the past few years, that Americans are willing to pay extra to know that they aren't poisoning their babies with Chinese, melamine-laced milk, amongst other food borne dangers.

    Also, as fuel prices climb again, as they inevitably will, combined with a weaker dollar, the appeal of manufacturing in the US will become irresistible to big corporations, foreign and domestic.

    We are well on our way to untangling this mess we've created. And people like you and me are better off for having the foresight to see the impending disaster and planned accordingly.


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    Default Re: chart of the week - percentage of US population that is actually employed ...

    But there is much to be said to pay a little extra for our home grown foods and food manufacturing.
    True if you can afford it ... but 2/3rds of the US population cannot ( or cannot without sacrificing something 'more important' like eventually owning their own home or sending their kids to college ), which is why this segment must cater to a limited 'luxury' market that will never encompass all American families.

    Also, the tainted food actually came from US sources ... although they were employing illegal 'foreign' labor !


    Also, as fuel prices climb again, as they inevitably will, combined with a weaker dollar, the appeal of manufacturing in the US will become irresistible to big corporations, foreign and domestic.
    Sorry, but you can't sell this concept. Basic energy costs are 'global' in nature. US energy costs will always be higher than the 'global' price due to energy environmental compliance costs + carbon taxes + other taxes. If the trans-ocean shipping costs fall within this differential, and if there is also a differential in labor costs + taxes + regulatory compliance, manufacturing is NOT going to return to the USA. And even if US labor costs become more competitive, the issues of taxes, mandated worker benefits, environmental and worker safety compliance etc. will still tilt the cost picture in favor of offshore manufacturers.


    We are well on our way to untangling this mess we've created
    I'd like to be able to believe this ... I really would ... because I would love to be able to afford to 'retire' in my 'former' home in the New York Adirondacks. But as things stand right now, the recent burst of media optimism is NOT supported by factual economic data ... federal, state and local tax increases are already being enacted or slated to be enacted in the near future ... most 'skilled' US job opportunities are oversubscribed by applicants and offering reduced pay levels ... US dollar denominated costs of 'necessities' such as gasoline / heating oil / food / insurance are rising ... in other words, people with income levels above $75k per year (or so) can't afford to live in New York without the pain of watching their standard of living erode in front of their eyes !
    Last edited by Melonie; 08-08-2009 at 02:02 PM.

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    Default Re: chart of the week - percentage of US population that is actually employed ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Sorry, but you can't sell this concept. Basic energy costs are 'global' in nature. US energy costs will always be higher than the 'global' price due to energy environmental compliance costs + carbon taxes + other taxes.
    I don't have to sell this concept. It is well known that fuel prices will go up. Demand is going up in locations outside of the US. In 2008 China put 41.73 million additional cars on their roads. Those aren't electric cars, either. India put 65 million new cars on the road in the same time period. Both countries are on track for huge growth in automobile sales with India being the world's top auto consumer by 2050.

    There also is no such thing as a carbon tax, yet. There are just too many variables on any outcome of a cap and trade bill or carbon tax bill to speculate at this time what it will do to fuel costs, up or down.


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    Default Re: chart of the week - percentage of US population that is actually employed ...

    It is well known that fuel prices will go up
    yes but fuel prices will go up on a global basis based on worldwide demand not local demand ... and go up even more if, like the USA, the fuel is also subject to sales taxes, road taxes, excise taxes etc. Whether or not a carbon tax gets heaped on top of the pile of existing taxes to make US fuel costs even higher than they already are versus global fuel costs is another question.

    The only way that this would not happen is if the USA decided to drill and refine much more domestic oil and sell it domestically at a price below that of the 'world market' ... which is not going to happen on either count.

    The point of course is not whether 'global' energy costs go up or down based on global supply versus global demand ratio changes. The relevant issue is whether or not the unit energy cost charged to US businesses is higher than the unit energy cost charged to businesses in certain foreign countries. When US energy is taxed and foreign energy is not taxed, US industries find themselves at an increased disadvantage versus foreign competitors.

    There are just too many variables on any outcome of a cap and trade bill or carbon tax bill to speculate at this time what it will do to fuel costs, up or down
    Well I'm entirely willing to speculate with absolute certainty that if US cap and trade / carbon tax becomes law, US fuel costs will only move in one direction ( and it certainly won't be down !) relative to the 'global' cost of the same fuel without the additional tax being collected ! Also, if US cap and trade / carbon tax becomes law, US electrical energy costs ( based on taxed natural gas ) are guaranteed to be more expensive than 'global' electricity costs (based on untaxed coal)

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