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Thread: US 'Official Unemployment' rate hits 9.7% ... but the REAL data is worse ~

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    Default US 'Official Unemployment' rate hits 9.7% ... but the REAL data is worse ~

    (snip)"Unemployment Hits 9.7%

    We start with the 'official' announcement of the unemployment rate before I do the monthly rip-up of these Pollyanna numbers:

    "Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in August (-216,000), and the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Although job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors in August, the declines have moderated in recent months.

    Household Survey Data

    In August, the number of unemployed persons increased by 466,000 to 14.9 million, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent. The rate had been little changed in June and July, after in- creasing 0.4 or 0.5 percentage point in each month from December 2008 through May. Since the recession began in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.4 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.8 percentage points. (See table A-1.)

    Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (10.1 percent), whites (8.9 percent), and Hispanics (13.0 percent) rose in August. The jobless rates for adult women (7.6 percent), teenagers (25.5 percent), and blacks (15.1 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

    The civilian labor force participation rate remained at 65.5 percent in August. The employment-population ratio, at 59.2 percent, edged down over the month and has declined by 3.5 percentage points since the re- cession began in December 2007. (See table A-1.)

    In August, the number of persons working part time for economic reasons was little changed at 9.1 million. These individuals indicated that they were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. The number of such workers rose sharply in the fall and winter but has been little changed since March. (See table A-5.)

    About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in August, reflecting an increase of 630,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.



    Now here's the grim of this Grimm statistical fairytale.

    1. See Table A. The civilian labor force reportedly shrank 422,000 in the most recent month.

    2. See Table A. Number of people not in the workforce increased by 637-thousand. If you're confused when payrolls fell by only 216,000 for the month, don't feel like the Lone Ranger.

    3. See Table U-6. The number of people who are unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, PhD's flipping burgers and so forth was 16.8% this month, up from 16.3% last month.

    4. See CES Birth/Death Model Adjustments: This is the 'statistically made up because we think so" department. Hmmm, lemme see here: 15,000 new jobs in construction...sure, whatever... 26,000 in professional services, and 24,000 leisure and hospitality. Uh huh. In all, 673,000 new jobs have been 'estimated into existence' since January and if you back out January, it's more than a million jobs that have been 'estimated into existence' so far this year.


    No fair reaching for a swig of Jack Daniels - too early for that. It's only a 26-year high for unemployment.


    The "G20 to pledge stimulus until economic recovery certain" sure doesn't sound very comforting, does it? Let's all go borrow ourselves into prosperity, shall we? Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe is the leading early adopter... "(snip)

    from

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    Default Re: US 'Official Unemployment' rate hits 9.7% ... but the REAL data is worse ~

    Also, every American should read and understand the implications of the following ...

    from


    (snip)The monthly BLS report provides data on workers unemployed for 27 or more weeks, and here is a graph ...





    The blue line is the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The red line is the same data as a percent of the civilian workforce.

    According to the BLS, there are almost 5.0 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is 3.2% of the civilian workforce.

    The good news is there wasn't much of an [apparent - sic] increase from July. The bad news is many of these 5 million long term unemployed will start exhausting their extended unemployment benefits soon. According to the projections by the National Employment Law Project about 0.5 million will have exhausted their benefits by the end of this month (September) and about 1.5 million by the end of the year.

    In California alone, from the O.C. Register: "an estimated 143,000 unemployed workers in California [exhausted] their jobless benefits by Sept. 1, according to new figures released by the state Employment Development Department"."(snip)


    The obvious point of this data is that the payment of unemployment insurance checks has been 'shielding' millions of unemployed Americans from the worst negative effects of the US economy. And when many of those unemployed were unable to find new employment after their 26 weeks of basic unemployment insurance coverage expired, the federal gov't extended coverage for additional weeks. This has happened twice so far, making it possible to receive unemployment insurance checks for up to 66 weeks in some states.

    The continuing extended unemployment insurance coverage has been the source of a few 'lifestyle' news articles extolling the virtues of more time with family, more time for hobbies, more time for volunteer work etc. However, the same extended unemployment insurance coverage has bankrupted the unemployment insurance funds of many states and is now adding hugely to the federal deficit. As such, it is doubtful that further unemployment benefit extensions will continue.

    As a result, some 5 million Americans are going to quickly find themselves transitioning from a 'treading water' scenario (where unemployment checks still made it possible to buy food, pay utility bills, and make mortgage payments) to a desparation scenario where the only money coming in is money that they themselves are able to beg, borrow or steal. Since borrowing is pretty much out of the question, that leaves begging and stealing !

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 09-05-2009 at 02:26 AM.

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    Default Re: US 'Official Unemployment' rate hits 9.7% ... but the REAL data is worse ~

    Unemployment goes up...and unemployment goes down. Just look at your own graph.

    No, really folks, there is no need to panic. Like FDR said..."the only thing we have to fear, is fear itself".

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    Default Re: US 'Official Unemployment' rate hits 9.7% ... but the REAL data is worse ~

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeybobby View Post
    Unemployment goes up...and unemployment goes down. Just look at your own graph.

    No, really folks, there is no need to panic. Like FDR said..."the only thing we have to fear, is fear itself".
    Isn't interesting how the graph shows incredibly abnormal results in this era of off shoring and globalization. Its almost as if there is a new paradigm at work where many jobs are created in China, India, and other such places instead of the United States.

    Nope. Nothing new to see here folks. Its all the same.

    I look forward to our new coming agrarian/militaristic lifestyle.

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    Default Re: US 'Official Unemployment' rate hits 9.7% ... but the REAL data is worse ~

    Quote Originally Posted by Deogol View Post
    Isn't interesting how the graph shows incredibly abnormal results in this era of off shoring and globalization. Its almost as if there is a new paradigm at work where many jobs are created in China, India, and other such places instead of the United States.

    Nope. Nothing new to see here folks. Its all the same.

    I look forward to our new coming agrarian/militaristic lifestyle.
    It just goes to show that the financial elites are capable of fucking things up on a global scale now.

    BTW, China and India have unemployment issues as well:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...mployment_rate

    ...as do most countries throughout the world. That includes, of course, many of the banana replublics in Central America and the Caribean, for those wanting to hold them up as paragons of economic salvation.
    Last edited by hockeybobby; 09-05-2009 at 08:36 AM.

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    Default Re: US 'Official Unemployment' rate hits 9.7% ... but the REAL data is worse ~

    This may seem counter-intuitive but if wages were increased, unemployment would go down.

    I'm going to make some predictions here:

    1. If REAL health care reform passes unemployment will drop like a stone, contrariwise, if it fails or is nothing more than an act of political masturbation, the numbers will again jump as small businesses that have been taking a "wait and see" attitude will decide to close their doors.

    2. Wages will continue to drop, creating a third-world circumstance amongst the labor force of America.

    3. The Employee Free Choice Act is going to be sold to America as a fascist idea that will hurt workers (when in fact it will make it easier for workers to organize). Karl Marx will be invoked while somehow this bill will be bad for "working people".

    4. Melonie will be against energy legislation and the employee free choice act, because ultimately these two bills combined with real health care reform will balance the power between the people and the wealthy elite. The wealthy elite won't go quietly into the night, that I can guarantee.


    Promote yourself and earn more money! This is a business that is owned by strippers for strippers. Let's make that money!


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    Default Re: US 'Official Unemployment' rate hits 9.7% ... but the REAL data is worse ~

    Quote Originally Posted by Paris View Post
    This may seem counter-intuitive but if wages were increased, unemployment would go down.

    I'm going to make some predictions here:

    1. If REAL health care reform passes unemployment will drop like a stone, contrariwise, if it fails or is nothing more than an act of political masturbation, the numbers will again jump as small businesses that have been taking a "wait and see" attitude will decide to close their doors.

    2. Wages will continue to drop, creating a third-world circumstance amongst the labor force of America.

    3. The Employee Free Choice Act is going to be sold to America as a fascist idea that will hurt workers (when in fact it will make it easier for workers to organize). Karl Marx will be invoked while somehow this bill will be bad for "working people".

    4. Melonie will be against energy legislation and the employee free choice act, because ultimately these two bills combined with real health care reform will balance the power between the people and the wealthy elite. The wealthy elite won't go quietly into the night, that I can guarantee.
    I think this is what is being attempted by "making credit available." Unfortunately, what that means is the banker crowd making a buck off our work. People are calling bullshit on that these days. I know I am. I am doing everything possible not to use a bank these days.

    The other worry is the dreaded "I" word - as in inflation. BUT if there were enough services and products available (created and innovated) to dilute the money supply, this would no longer be a fear. The powers that be, who want to hold onto the money want everyone to work for the minimum possible instead of what is fair. (Just take a look around at CEO v common worker ratios.) So they cry "inflation! inflation!" in an economy spiraling down in deflation.

    I have words about consumers but that is for another day.

    Perhaps my radicalism is seeping out in this message.

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